Hail Mary madness

National Overview

Well, then. That was insane. This post took a long time to write thanks due to the inherent difficulty in processing what it was we witnessed last week, possibly the craziest in the 150-plus-year history of college football. Where to begin? Oregon’s stunning home flop against unranked Arizona? UCLA’s, to Utah? How about the brutal fate suffered by Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU and Stanford, all of which bowed out on the road against ranked foes? In all, four of the top six, five of the top 10 and 10 of the top 25 teams ranked in the Week 6 AP Poll went down.

I said a few weeks ago we seemed headed for a 2007 redux, when no dominant team emerged and a two-loss LSU squad backdoored its way into a BCS title, but this is unprecedented territory. On Friday morning Oregon’s championship hopes appeared all but dashed; by midnight Saturday, the Ducks were as alive as anyone. With the exception of Florida State’s fluffy ACC schedule, no team will be favored to run the table. The SEC and Pac-12 are too good, the Big Ten’s last unbeaten squad (Nebraska) just lost and the Big 12… is just tough enough to predict a loss somewhere for both TCU and Baylor. As in 2007, things are going to come down to the final week of the season and the conference title games. Even then, it’s unlikely there will be four clear-cut playoff-worthy teams.

The biggest winners of the weekend were clearly the Mississippi schools, which responded to the national spotlight by going two-for-two against top-six teams. It’s hard to imagine either Ole Miss or Mississippi State finishing unbeaten in the rugged SEC West, though. While both are great stories, there’s a reason the Rebels and Bulldogs were predicted to finish behind multiple other powerhouses in their own division: talent. Good though both Mississippi teams are, Alabama, Auburn and possibly Texas A&M are all more stacked. Stumbles are inevitable.

Now the question becomes, “Which ranked team falls next?” Stanford (though it already lost twice) faces a dangerous Washington State team Friday. Oregon and UCLA meet in a potential playoff elimination game (ditto for Georgia – Missouri) and 5-0 Arizona has USC. However, the obvious choice(s) are the two matchups of top-10 foes: Auburn at Mississippi State and TCU at Baylor. We’ll finally get to see just how good this Baylor squad is, and while I’d lean toward Auburn, MSU has proved to be formidable.

There’s a handful of other good contests Saturday, such as the renewal of the Red River Shootout (never forget), Louisville versus Clemson, Ole Miss at Texas A&M (another chance for a top team to fall) and disappointing Washington at surprising Cal. Don’t laugh! Cal is in first place in the Pac-12 North! And keep an eye on Georgia Tech, sitting at 5-0 and hosting defending Coastal Division champ Duke. Fun all around.

Playoff Poll

The seismic shift last week threw my playoff into disarray. All four of my finalists went down. They’ll reappear in the second and third tiers this week, but the final four is all new. What a world we live in.

College Football Playoff

1) Auburn vs. 4) Ole Miss

2) Florida State vs. 3) Mississippi State

Gulp. Yeah, that’s three SEC schools. Fear not, though. All three reside in the same division and have to play each other. It’s unlikely more than one makes the final cut. I like MSU over Ole Miss because the Bulldogs have two quality wins (LSU, Texas A&M) to the Rebels’ one (Alabama).

Second Tier

Michigan State

Alabama

TCU

Oklahoma

Baylor

Close road losses to ranked teams keep the Crimson Tide and Sooners in the second group, while Michigan State quietly moves up after a dominating, then momentarily scary, victory over Nebraska that solidified the Spartans’ Big Ten dominance. TCU and Baylor will fight for the right to be considered for the final four this week.

Third Tier

Oregon

Texas A&M

Notre Dame

How times change. Oregon and A&M were the clear-cut leaders for the playoff after the first month of the season. Why not Arizona over the Ducks? Well, impressive though the Wildcats’ win was, it’s hard to argue ‘Zona is a better team overall than UO. I need to see more than an upset of a team with a wrecked offensive line to truly buy in. The Fighting Irish got lucky against Stanford, but they’re undefeated and should remain so until the Florida State matchup.

Pac-12 Report

Whoa. Who had both Oregon AND UCLA going down at home to unranked teams? Yeesh. If the conference championship game was held this week, the representatives would be Cal and Arizona. Approximately zero percent of analysts (or fans) saw that coming. Now, the Wildcats are better positioned to actually win their division because they’re A) simply better and B) just beat the most talented team on their schedule. Cal, although a surprising 4-1 (with a loss to Arizona that should have been a win), still has to face Oregon, Stanford, USC and UCLA. That’s too tough a slate to expect the Bears to navigate.

‘Zona’s upset of the Ducks really wasn’t that shocking when you consider the problems Oregon has. Losing four O-linemen to injury would cripple almost every team and the Wildcat’s 3-3-5 stack defense has traditionally given UO trouble. Arizona is also a good team in its own right. For the Ducks, the answer seems simple: if the line gets healthy, this can still be a very good team. If not, it won’t happen. Opponents will do exactly what WSU and Arizona did: beat the Ducks at the point of attack and force the offense into quick, short-yardage plays.

UCLA’s issues are actually even more widespread, which isn’t good if you’ve watched Oregon the past couple of games. The Bruins have been inconsistent in every area, massively disappointing on defense and seemingly unable to deal with any kind of adversity. Quarterback Brett Hundley has been merely average despite a wave of preseason hype. The offense has been predictable and the line has been among the worst in the country. You thought Ducks QB Marcus Mariota was dealing with pressure? Try being poor Hundley, who was sacked a ridiculous 10 times in the Utah loss alone. It will be interesting to see how both teams adjust this weekend when they meet.

Stanford blew the Notre Dame game because of course they did. The Cardinal’ M.O. the past few years has been to dominate in-conference and embarrass themselves outside it, as seen by pretty much every non-Pac-12 game Stanford has played in the David Shaw era. I’m still astounded the Stanford head coach is thought of so highly; his offenses have been pathetically vanilla and his default strategy is to go ultra-conservative and lean on the defense to win games. When will his coaching acumen finally be questioned?

Because this is the Pac-12, all three of the late games (of which Utah – UCLA was one) went down to the wire. Arizona State and backup QB Mike Bercovici showed remarkable poise in never giving up at USC and winning on (yet another) wild Hail Mary. Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns without an interception, incredible numbers for a guy making his first road start. SC’s defense, on the other hand, was abysmal, allowing scores on plays of 73 and 46 yards in the final three minutes.

However, that wasn’t even (arguably) the craziest moment of the night. Washington State and Cal staged a laughably defense-free shootout on the Palouse, combining for more than 1,200 yards passing and 12 TD’s. The Cougars’ Connor Halliday set an NCAA record with 734 yards, yet WSU still lost. How? Couging it, of course: a missed chip-shot field goal as time expired. Still, Wazzu could have put the game away much earlier had it not allowed back-to-back kickoff return TD’s in the third quarter. This was a total team loss.

So what’s on tap this week? Glad you asked. WSU is at Stanford Friday, and while the Cardinal have fared quite well against the Air Raid in the past it’s hard to feel particularly confident about this Stanford team. The Cougars are in desperation mode and have the playmakers to give any defense trouble. Oregon –UCLA will be a referendum on which preseason favorite was more overrated, while Washington heads to Cal to try to save their season. An 0-2 league start would be devastating for the Huskies, but the Bears could move to 3-1 and be one win away from bowl eligibility by knocking off UW.

The last game is USC, another disappointment, at Arizona. SC is undoubtedly the more talented squad. Unfortunately, in an all-too-familiar scenario for fans of a Steve Sarkisian-coached team, the Trojans don’t seem to be getting the most out of their players. Arizona has really only looked great in two games – the opener against UNLV and last week – so it certainly wouldn’t be out of the question for the Wildcats to have a come-down loss here. But that also puts a lot of the onus on Sarkisian to actually get things done, which is apparently asking a lot.

Random Thoughts and Observations

 The bizarre rise of the national Hail Mary success rate this season has to be addressed. There are always a few last-gasp desperation heaves that work out in the course of a season, but 2014 has seen the Hail Mary literally go viral. I’ve lost track of how many games have seen a successful one, and we’re only in Week 7. Off the top of my head, there were halftime Hail Mary’s in Houston – BYU and Oregon State – USC as well as the game winners in Arizona – Cal and Arizona State – USC and another mid-major contest I can’t quite recall. While the Hail Mary is scary for a defense, it has that name for a reason: it’s supposed to be a lucky play to convert.

Who’s to blame for the spike this year? Defensive backs across the country are at fault, to be sure. However, the bigger problem has to be coaching. In any kind of late-game jump ball scenario, defenders are (or should be) taught to bat the ball down or, as a last resort, tackle the receiver for a penalty rather than allow a game-winning completion. Look at the “Jael Mary” from ASU – USC. Two Trojans attempt to cradle catch the football, while the Sun Devils’ Jaelen Strong (for whom the play is named) leaps in front and high-points the ball. Uncontested TD, and a black eye for the SC staff.

Stanzi Watch

It was a somewhat quieter week for the Stanzis, but there were a couple of notable performances. Florida’s Jeff Driskel avoided a Stanzi because he was pulled before backup Treon Harris saved the day against Tennessee. However, Arkansas State’s Fredi Knighten, Toledo’s Logan Woodside, Notre Dame’s Everett Golson and Bowling Green’s James Knapke all joined the multiple winners club, giving FSU’s Jameis Winston some competition. At this rate, we’ll have a photo finish for college football’s most ignominious award! Here are this week’s winners and the standings.

Brian Burrell, Fresno State

Opponent: San Diego State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

James Knapke, Bowling Green

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

Trevone Boykin, TCU

Opponent: Oklahoma

Performance: One INT, three FUM (one lost), won by four

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: Stanford

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Tyler Jones, Texas State

Opponent: Idaho

Performance: Two INT, won by five

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State

Opponent: Louisiana-Monroe

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 14

Grant Hedrick, Boise State

Opponent: Nevada

Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM, won by five

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Western Michigan

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Conner Halliday, WSU: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, California: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason, Georgia: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

What a season this is becoming. After the past few weeks there’s no reason to expect anything less than complete madness. The best thing to do is sit back and watch it unfold.