The long and winding road

National Overview

Last week didn’t look particularly good on paper, but as the saying goes, that’s why they play the games. Starting with Thursday’s showdown in the Little Apple, Week 4 provided thrills and near-shockers across the board. Auburn survived that trip to Manhattan with a “quality” win over Kansas State but provided the doubters with a lot of ammunition. The Tigers were fortunate to benefit from a deluge of K-State miscues and probably should have lost. The same can easily be said for defending champion Florida State, which looked downright average against a Clemson team that might not be very good at all. Oregon also escaped an inferior opponent when Washington State was unable to get one last equalizing score, while Oklahoma, so dominant in the first few weeks, was somewhat exposed by West Virginia.

What does this all mean? As usual, it probably indicates no one is quite as good as people think. This could end up being one of those years when no truly dominant team emerges, like 2007 or 2010. People seem to forget that seasons in which a juggernaut (or two) thrashes everyone in sight (such as 2005 USC/Texas or 2014 FSU) are more the exception than the norm. Every contender (with the possible exception of Texas A&M) has shown legitimate problem areas thus far, from Oregon and Alabama’s pass defense to Oklahoma’s pass offense to Florida State’s… whatever that was without quarterback Jameis Winston.

Back to that Auburn – Kansas State contest. Credit AU for getting it done in the fourth quarter, but if things went even remotely the Wildcats’ way the outcome would have been very different. KSU gifted the Tigers a pair of extremely lucky early turnovers and missed three field goals that should have put Auburn into a deep hole. Had the Tigers been forced to rely on QB Nick Marshall’s passing to win, they wouldn’t have.

As frustrated as the Wildcats might be, though, there’s no one in the country more angry than Clemson this week. The Tigers had every opportunity to put FSU away and probably should have. From a comically inept (and ill-timed) bad snap to missed field goals to blown coverages, this edition of “pulling a Clemson” (the East Coast version of “Couging it”) was the Clemsoniest Clemsoning yet. As a result, the Seminoles now have the easiest path of any contender to the playoffs. But would they deserve a spot there if they do pull off an undefeated season? More on that in a moment.

The final week of September yields the most impressive crop of games so far. Texas Tech and Oklahoma State meet Thursday in both teams’ Big 12 opener, while UCLA heads to Tempe that same night to face defending division champion Arizona State. Minnesota and Michigan rekindle their ancient rivalry Saturday, as do old Southwest Conference foes Arkansas and Texas A&M. Florida State is at North Carolina State in an intriguing, if not particularly promising, matchup. More interesting is Stanford’s visit to Washington in a series that has been razor-close lately. In yet another chance for Big Ten misery, Cincinnati’s trip to in-state rival Ohio State has major implications. Finally, the nightcap of Oregon State – USC should be competitive and watchable. The wait is over. It’s the first slate of quality games this season.

Top 25

I’ve tentatively decided on creating a power poll instead of a traditional ranking for the playoff candidates from this point forward. The poll will consist of the four teams most deserving to be included based on their resumes to that point, along with a short list of the teams on the “bubble,” much like with the NCAA Tournament. The first full power poll will come out next week, but for the moment the top four teams are, in some order: Texas A&M, Alabama, Oregon and Oklahoma. Those schools have looked the best the most consistently in 2014.

Note: Top-ranked Florida State is not currently included because the Seminoles have not been impressive in two of three games this season. To make things more interesting, the schedule from here on out is extremely weak. Without a series of dominant wins the rest of the way FSU could find itself left out of the playoff.

Additionally, I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised Mississippi State posted its best win in more than a decade just after I gave the Bulldogs my ultimate vote of no confidence last week. Oh, well. MSU’s road blowout of LSU – though the Tigers may not be that good – is one of the best wins any team has posted this year and moves State to the playoff bubble.

Pac-12 Report

Oregon’s struggles at Washington State were, as I predicted last week, not entirely shocking. WSU is the best passing team in the nation, Oregon’s corners are mostly inexperienced and the Ducks have tended to give up yards in chunks against one-dimensional offenses the past few years. The good news is UO won’t face another foe as pass-happy (and as competent doing it) as Wazzu all year. Unfortunately, there are some other issues that might come back to haunt this team.

The pass defense is a fairly fixable problem, or at least, it would be in any other conference. But the Pac-12 is a cruel and unforgiving mistress to weak secondaries. Oregon still has the ability to tighten things up, but it’s hard to imagine this suddenly becoming an elite unit. Then there’s the offensive line, which has gone from perhaps the team’s greatest strength to barely hanging on after a rash of injuries. QB Marcus Mariota was sacked seven times in Pullman and the Ducks failed to rush for 200 yards, a rarity for this offense. If reinforcements don’t arrive soon, UO will succumb to the brutal conference schedule.

It was delightful to see Cal and Arizona go down to the wire, but bittersweet to see the Bears blow a 22-point halftime lead in Tucson and fail to go to 3-0. Simply put, Cal deserved the win. Arizona is the better team, no doubt; despite shooting itself it the foot numerous times, the Wildcats moved the ball at will. The Bears should still have stolen the W, but ‘Zona survived and now enters the meat of the Pac-12 schedule in great shape to play a major role in the South race.

As for Cal, the Bears suffered their first loss but surely must feel better about their chances in league play than in 2013. The defense is going to get lit up a whole bunch, but the offense has proved to be worthy of a major-conference squad. At the very least, Cal seems to have stabilized as a program under Sonny Dykes. With the Bears still pulling in good recruiting classes this team ought to be competitive in the near future, much sooner than expected

Washington, on the other hand, notched a win over Georgia State that raised even more red flags. The Huskies trailed 14-0 at halftime and led by seven entering the fourth quarter against a program that has been playing football less than five years. Chris Petersen has started his tenure as UW head coach 4-0, but it’s about the shakiest undefeated start imaginable. Hopefully, his guys were looking ahead to the big showdown this week. If not, it could be a long year for the Huskies.

Oregon State’s win over San Diego State wasn’t really noteworthy in any way – the Beavers were the better team and looked like it – so let’s move on to Utah. The Utes extended the Big Ten’s streak of awfulness with an overpowering performance in Ann Arbor to move to 3-0. It’s early, but this might be the most talented team head coach Kyle Whittingham has fielded, at least since joining the league. The Utes were 4-4 and poised to win the division in their first Pac-12 season (2011) before blowing a HOME finale to Colorado, of all teams. I think it’s highly likely this Utah team is better than the 2011 version.

On that note, I think it’s likely Utah knocks off WSU this week. The Utes are equipped to win a shootout or a slugfest and have the requisite home-field advantage to get it done. The Cougs are certainly capable of winning this game – that 1-3 record is highly misleading – but it’s hard to trust this erratic, turnover-prone squad. If Wazzu is going to make it to a bowl the season has to turn around in Salt Lake City. I’m not confident it will happen.

Colorado at Cal looked like a matchup of even teams before the year started, but that was before the Bears started looking competent. The Buffaloes, despite their 2-2 start, are still not ready to take the next step. At home, Cal is the clear favorite in this game. What might have been for this Bears team? If not for that stupid Hail Mary at Arizona, 4-0 and a bowl bid would be a real possibility.

OSU – USC was a game I went back and forth on in my preseason predictions before settling on the Trojans taking it at home. That struggle looked ludicrous after SC’s big win over Stanford, but it swung right back to reasonable after that appalling effort at Boston College. Here’s the thing, though: the Trojans might be overrated, Steve Sarkisian might be a complete hack of a head coach and the program might be hobbled by scholarship reductions… and I still don’t like the Beavers’ chances in L.A. OSU has been notoriously bad in these situations historically and there’s not really any reason to think this team is good enough to turn that streak around. I’m not sure the 2014 Beavs are as good as last year’s squad that went 7-6.

There’s a huge South showdown Thursday between UCLA and ASU. Or is there? The Bruins are being coy about the status of QB Brett Hundley, but I’d bet he plays. ASU’s Taylor Kelly, arguably the superior QB, is definitely out. The game is at night in Tempe, which obviously favors the Sun Devils. This game was supposed to determine which side would play in the Pac-12 Championship, but now the picture is muddled. Kelly is hurt. UCLA has looked like the most overrated team in the country thus far. Is either of these teams going to win the South? Were the Devils at full strength, I’d take them in a heartbeat. Now I have to lean toward the Bruins by default, though it wouldn’t shock me to see ASU still pull this game out.

So… there’s this interesting thing happening. A pair of undefeated, top-15 Pac-12 squads will play on Thursday, but there’s another game happening Saturday in Seattle that might feature two teams better than either of them. Stanford, without a doubt, is at least the equal of UCLA and ASU. Washington has been curiously sloppy this month, but the Huskies have still started 4-0. If UW and Stanford finished ahead of their South Division brethren at the end of the year, would it really surprise anyone? I don’t think so. This series has gotten tight the past couple of seasons and this contest appears to be of the same mold. The Cardinal cannot afford another conference loss. Washington surely doesn’t want to start with one either. Buckle up.

Random Thoughts and Observations

A lot has been made of how the Big Ten “rebounded” last week, going 12-1. Let’s see…Iowa knocked off Pittsburgh on the road… Nebraska beat Miami (FL) at home… Indiana upset Missouri in Columbia… and that’s it. Am I supposed to be impressed by Rutgers’ win at Navy or Maryland’s road victory over Syracuse? Indiana’s comeback against Mizzou was nice, but let’s face it, the Tigers were probably vastly over-ranked following their incredible 2013 run. Pitt is decent, but that’s hardly a ringing endorsement, while Miami is a .500 football team. The Big Ten didn’t “rebound” last week. It just didn’t play anyone of note and looked good because of it. This is still the worst Power 5 conference, which, considering the state of the ACC, is really saying something.

After nearly upsetting South Carolina and knocking off Virginia Tech in Blacksburg, what would East Carolina do next? How about obliterating in-state rival North Carolina by a score of 70-41? The Pirates rolled up 789 yards on 97 plays, officially stamping themselves as the team to beat in the AAC. The game wasn’t even as close as it looks. UNC built an early lead thanks to two touchdowns on trick plays. There’s no way to spin this positively for the ACC, no matter how good ECU is. I thought the Pirates might contend for the league title in their first season out of the Conference USA, but this is unexpected.

Stanzi Watch

It was a banner week for the Stanzis as an astounding seven new candidates entered the fray. Florida State is now facing the same conundrum TCU did in 2013: two quarterbacks earning Stanzis in the same season. Which one to start?! With conference action just getting started, things can only get better from here. Here are this week’s winners and the overall standings.

Sean Maguire, Florida State

Opponent: Clemson

Performance: Two INT, won in overtime

Sefo Liufau, Colorado

Opponent: Hawai’i

Performance: Two INT, won by nine

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State

Opponent: Utah State

Performance: One INT, two FUM, won in OT

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss

Opponent: Appalachian State

Performance: Two INT, won by one

Anu Solomon, Arizona

Opponent: California

Performance: Two INT, won on Hail Mary

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Ball State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle: Georgia State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 1

Conference play! It’s here! No longer will we have to slog through 66-0 pastings like the one Wisconsin laid on Bowling Green last week. Well, unless you’re watching the SEC. That league loves to sprinkle in patsies throughout the season, not unlike a fancy dinner getting constantly interrupted for Hostess Cupcakes breaks. Fortunately, from this point forward that dinner should be so filling no one will need to even consider reaching for one.