To Zi or not Stanzi

National Overview

Two more down. Baylor and Notre Dame exited the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday, one in a blaze of glory and another in a blaze of... awful defense. It shouldn’t be hard to figure out which team was which. The top five wasn’t the only place to see shakeups, though. Oklahoma – the ostensible Big 12 favorite – was almost assuredly eliminated from playoff contention after a second loss (to Kansas State). Dark horse Oklahoma State suffered a similar fate, getting thrashed by TCU. Stanford was also knocked out of the title chase after another offensive flop, leaving the SEC essentially unchallenged at the top of the polls.

The week started with a bang on Thursday (not counting Tuesday’s Louisiana-Lafayette – Texas State game) when Oregon State took Utah to double-overtime. The Utes are still a wild card in the Pac-12 South with their quarterback situation unsettled but could end up having a huge impact before everything is said and done. Saturday morning saw the two Big 12 upsets, as Baylor wilted in Morgantown and Oklahoma fell apart at home. Alabama annihilated Texas A&M 59-0 to stay relevant, while UCLA kept its slim hopes alive by narrowly edging Cal.

Marshall blasted FIU to remain the only undefeated mid-major. The Thundering Herd will likely finish 12-0 but be left out of the playoff because the schedule strength just isn’t there. Oregon pounded Washington yet again to remain the North’s leader, while Notre Dame fell to FSU in a result that will probably doom the Fighting Irish’s playoff bid. If ND finishes with one loss there’s a chance, but the Irish face a fairly daunting slate in the next month and a half.

The pickings are rather slim this week, considering where we are in the season. Michigan is at Michigan State, but that rivalry has taken a turn for the worse in recent years. West Virginia is at Oklahoma State in a surprisingly meaningful Big 12 contest. We’ll get to see if Ole Miss’ upset of Alabama was a fluke when the Rebels travel to LSU, while Auburn hosts South Carolina in another test for the Tigers. The Pac-12 has a good night lineup, featuring USC at Utah and Arizona State – Washington. Unfortunately, that’s about it.

Playoff Poll

I’m not sure how we got here this fast, but the discussion has already shifted to which one-loss team is the most worthy. The top three teams are easy. It’s where we go from there that makes this confusing.

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) Oregon

2) Florida State vs. 3) Ole Miss

The Mississippi schools are obvious, although I anticipate at least one loss for both of them – at Alabama is the most likely candidate for MSU, while Auburn’s visit to Ole Miss could be the Rebs’ undoing. FSU is probably safe for the remainder of the regular season, considering the dearth of talent in the ACC. Oregon is the tough one, beating out a host of other one-loss schools.

Second Tier

Michigan State

Alabama

Auburn

TCU

The Spartans are still hiding in plain sight, waiting for the smoke to clear. Alabama finally looked like Alabama against Texas A&M. Auburn was off, but TCU made a statement that the collapse against Baylor was a fluke. Oregon beats out these teams by virtue of “best win.”

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Georgia

Kansas State

Baylor

Notre Dame acquitted itself well in Tallahassee and deserves to stay in the conversation, if only peripherally. Georgia has crept back into contention, but I’m skeptical of the Dawgs chances given how much better the SEC West is than the East. Kansas State and Baylor both have one loss and would need to win out to garner any support for the playoff.

Pac-12 Report

I guess I was right about Utah – Oregon State. The Beavers certainly had their chances, holding the Utes to 62 yards passing and still losing in double overtime. You can’t blow opportunities like that in the Pac-12 and expect to have a successful season. Utah is good – the defense, in particular, is powerful – but not elite. OSU’s offensive issues are no longer a matter of “fixing” something that’s broken. The Beavs simply don’t have very many playmakers. To have any chance at a bowl they’ll need to rely on the D, which has been excellent to this point. Without a reprieve from the offense, though, things could spiral out of control quickly.

UCLA managed to survive a back-and-forth affair with Cal to remain relevant in at least the conference title chase, but it wasn’t pretty. Good though the Bears may be offensively, there’s no excuse for a team with the Bruins’ talent to need all 60 minutes to put the game away. There’s something just off about this squad. It’s hard to tell if it’s the coaching, the players or the difficult schedule, but UCLA hasn’t looked right all season. Cal, on the other hand, has looked solid. It’s a shame the remaining schedule is so tough, because this team deserves to go to a bowl.

As expected, USC crushed Colorado, knocking the Buffaloes down to 0-4 in conference play. It’s no surprise CU is still the doormat of the South, but the performance since the 2-2 start is a little troubling. The Trojans, meanwhile, have moved to 4-1 and sit atop the division, at least until Arizona State wins again. Could that Hail Mary be the difference between a Pac-12 title and a second-place South finish? Gulp. SC is still in good shape, but not controlling one’s own destiny is a little scary.

Oregon clobbered Washington yet again in a series that has increasingly begun to look routine. UO has beaten the spread each of the last 11 meetings and won by an average of just more than 25 points – exactly what the difference was Saturday. It doesn’t seem to matter where the game is played or even if the Huskies have advantages (such as their great defensive front this year), the result is the same. At 1-2 with losses to Oregon and Stanford, UW is firmly out of the North race for the time being. The Ducks appeared to be back in form… but we’ll only know for sure if they can keep this up.

Lastly, there was the oddity that was Stanford – ASU. It never felt like the Cardinal were particularly engaged with the game or even really in it, but they weren’t mathematically eliminated until the final minutes. The defense, at least, is still mostly there. The offense is another story. Stanford has been so bad it’s surprising there haven’t been more calls for a quarterback change, although I’m not sure anyone could move the ball with the way the O-line has been playing. ASU is trending up, Stanford down.

Oregon and Cal play Friday in Santa Clara to start the Pac-12’s weekend off. There should be points in this one. UO looked good against Washington’s anemic attack but the Bears are a different story. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal’s defense is so terrible one or two stops should do it. I don’t see the Bears holding Oregon to less than 40, and even with some of UO’s defensive concerns it’s hard to imagine the Ducks giving up that many points. It may take a while to pull away, but it’ll happen.

Surely UCLA wouldn’t continue to struggle at Colorado, right? This has the feel of the perfect kind of get-right game the Bruins could desperately use. If not… nearly losing to Cal was bad enough. The voters put their trust in you, UCLA! You’re back in the top 25! Don’t let those good* people down. The Buffs have a shot if they return to the scrappy play that defined them in September, but I’m not optimistic. UCLA will finally put together a complete game in Boulder and look like the team that got so much hype in the preseason.

*Debatable

Oregon State is at Stanford in an increasingly tight series that has seen its past two games go down to the wire. The argument can be made that the Beavers should have won both of the last two years and they’ll surely be out for some revenge. Unfortunately, OSU’s offense might make that a bit difficult. Unless the Beavs can find some magic solution this week, the Cardinal’s stout defense figures to make like miserable for QB Sean Mannion again. Of course, the same could be said of Stanford’s offense, and the OSU defense is no slouch either. This contest has the potential to be very, very ugly.

Arizona is at WSU in what I would have absolutely called a trap game had the Wildcats not fallen to USC last week. The Cougars can play with almost anyone – it’s just the winning thing they have trouble with – and that will be true against UA. The Air Raid should do its Air Raid-y thing at home, which could lead to a shootout. Wazzu has struggled against good offenses but is still very dangerous. The ‘Cats had better beware. I’ll take Arizona, but it’s not a lock.

Raise your hand if you thought Utah would be ranked higher than USC when the teams met in Salt Lake City. I’m thinking no one saw that coming. The Utes have impressed so far, playing great defense and moving within one fourth-quarter collapse of a 6-0 start. They have to be considered a South player. However… I think SC wins. The Trojans typically do well when matched up with similarly pro-styled teams (like Stanford) and the Utes’ QB situation is beyond a mess. This feels like a “take back the power” game for the visitors.

The second half of the nightcap features Arizona State at Washington in a huge game for both sides. ASU needs to stay ahead of USC and can’t afford to stumble in one of its easier remaining games (crazy, but true). UW has already lost to the two presumed North heavyweights and has to win to have any faint hope of a backdoor division title. The Sun Devils romped in Tempe last season, but both teams have seen enough turnover to make that fairly irrelevant. ASU is probably just the better squad, but like Oregon has the potential to struggle when its spread gets disrupted by a dominant front. Washington can win here. I’m not sure they will.

Heisman Watch

It’s still pretty much a two- or three-man race at this point. Off-field troubles are going to exclude at least two expected finalists, so the field isn’t particularly compelling. If the unbeatens are eliminated, we’ll see things get interesting.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is on another long interception-free streak and has been his usual stellar self all year. It would take a lot – like a couple more losses and poor play – to knock him out of the running.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Once again, Prescott is a very nice college player that has absolutely no hope of succeeding at the next level. As a Heisman candidate, though, he’s practically perfect. The QB of the top-ranked team is always a favorite.

Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson acquitted himself well in the FSU loss. If the Fighting Irish run the table the rest of the way and move back into playoff contention, odds are Golson will end up in New York.

Trevone Boykin, QB,TCU

He’ll have his shot against Kansas State and West Virginia. Voters are probably a little reticent about Boykin at the moment given his spotty history, but he definitely has the ability to put together some great numbers.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Brian Kelly can complain about the offensive interference penalty that ended the FSU game all he wants. It doesn’t change the fact that it was absolutely the right call. “Pick” plays, which have become increasing common during the rise of the spread, are shady territory at best and quite often completely illegal. The degree to which receivers turn to actually look for a pass is tantamount to the success of the play; it has to at least appear that the WR’s are running routes.

That wasn’t the case at all on the overturned touchdown. Two Notre Dame receivers clearly blocked defenders out of the play before the ball was thrown. That’s the definition of offensive pass interference. Kelly has come out with two bizarre statements on the call, saying that officials “changed their mind” about the player who committed the penalty and that the Irish “ran the same play earlier” and the officials didn’t call it. It doesn’t matter which player was flagged – they were both committing the same infraction. Additionally, the idea that because the team cheated before to score, it should allowed to do so again is ludicrous. Kelly should be happy it was only called once.

Baylor’s flop on the road at West Virginia wasn’t exactly unprecedented. The Bears had a similar performance to end an undefeated season last year at Oklahoma State. What was surprising was how much better the Mountaineers looked. WVU outgained Baylor 456-318, held the Bears to a paltry 95 yards rushing on 42 carries and actually lost the turnover battle 3-0. To still win by double-digits implies some pretty impressive domination on both sides of the ball. As a bonus, the two teams combined for 32 penalties for an outrageous 353 yards, including a Big 12-record 215 for Baylor.

Special recognition needs to be made for Missouri, which napalmed Florida at the Swamp 42-13 (in a game that was 42-0 in the third quarter). Mizzou scored on a kickoff return TD to start the game and a punt return TD, sack/fumble TD AND interception return TD in the third quarter. The Tigers should be happy. Such a feat probably won’t be duplicated for decades in Columbia. Will Muschamp should be looking for a new job. This has gotten out of hand.

Stanzi Watch

In either one or two weeks’ time, depending on how the weekly awards shake out, I’ll apply the multi-winner cutoff. Players will still be able to leap onto the semifinalist board, but I won’t waste space listing each of the one-time winners. This past week saw another great crop of Stanzi performances, including a remarkable five players (out of eight) who notched their second award of the season. Stunningly, none of them was our two leaders. Here are this week’s winners and the standings:

Chad Voytik, Pittsburgh

Opponent: Virginia Tech

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Kendal Thompson, Utah

Opponent: Oregon State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won* in double-OT

*Note: Thompson was benched after his second turnover and thus doesn’t really fit the Stanzi criteria… but he was bad enough I think he should get one anyway

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: Tulane

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Clint Trickett, West Virginia

Opponent: Baylor

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14

C.J. Brown, Maryland

Opponent: Iowa

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Brett Hundley, UCLA

Opponent: Cal

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

Davis Webb, Texas Tech

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss

Opponent: North Texas

Performance: Two INT, won by 10

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

Justin Holman, UCF: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Connor Halliday, Washington State: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville: 1

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, Cal: 1

Bryce Petty, Baylor: 1

Chad Voytik, Pittsburgh: 1

Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Clint Trickett, West Virginia: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 1

Brian Burell, Fresno State: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Kendal Thompson, Utah: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

That’s 10 multi-Stanzi guys! 10! Through eight weeks of action! I can’t imagine how this could possibly get any more entertaining – which is why it will, of course. We’re starting to hit attrition season, when teams’ depth exposes who they really are. Should be fun.

The BCS was human after all

National Overview

It’s a little-known fact that Socrates was referring to college football when he said true wisdom comes from admitting one knows nothing. After Week 7 a mere six unbeatens remain: Florida State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Baylor, Marshall and… Notre Dame. It’s unlikely the four playoff contestants will come exclusively from this group, because four of the six play each other and Marshall won’t have the necessary strength of schedule. Heck, Baylor might not. So what now?

MSU should be the nation’s top team after knocking off LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn in consecutive weeks. Yes, LSU is now unranked and A&M should be, but that’s still a monstrous group to face in less than a month’s time. Florida State and Ole Miss are, in some order, the next teams in line. Things would be more clear had Texas A&M not looked so bad throughout SEC play. That’s not really fair to the Rebels, who had the misfortune of simply playing the Aggies a week later than the Bulldogs, but such is the unforgiving world of college football. The Seminoles have mostly sleepwalked through a garbage ACC schedule and finally get a chance for a big statement against Notre Dame this week.

The Fighting Irish had yet another close call with a bad North Carolina squad but once again survived to keep their playoff hopes alive. Without a conference affiliation and thus no chance for a 13^th game before the postseason, Notre Dame will likely need to go undefeated to make the final four. That can definitely happen, as long as the Irish beat FSU this week. I’m skeptical of that outcome considering the game is in Tallahassee. However, if there’s one thing Notre Dame is it’s opportunistic, and the ‘Noles have clearly taken a step back this year with their sloppy play. Should be a good game.

It seems official that Mississippi State is now the 2014 version of last year’s Auburn team: a fast, athletic group that excels at running the ball and controlling the clock. God help the Bulldogs if they ever have to throw to win a game, but after the Tigers rode that formula to a near-title last season all bets are off. MSU is now the prohibitive favorite to win the West, I guess. It’s still very hard to trust this team with the games still remaining – at Alabama and Ole Miss – and the potential of an upset/letdown in the SEC Championship.

Baylor completed an epic comeback against TCU to stay unbeaten, though the Big 12 has always felt like a two-team league. Oklahoma lost to the Horned Frogs last week, but it still seems overwhelmingly likely the OU – Baylor game will decide the conference title (remember, the 10-team Big 12 is the only power league without a conference championship game). Good for Baylor, but the real test will come in a few weeks after both teams get a couple a weak tune-ups in the meantime.

The other big news from the weekend came from out west, where Oregon effectively ended the charade known as UCLA and USC knocked off an over-ranked Arizona squad to re-take control of the South Division, if only momentarily. The Ducks control their own destiny in the Pac-12 race, but more importantly actually looked like the old UO again. More on this in the Pac-12 section, where I’ll break down the only league more confusing than the SEC.

There’s a very exciting matchup Thursday night, when newly-ranked Utah meets Oregon State in Corvallis. A couple of good Big 12 contests kick off the weekend in Baylor – West Virginia and Kansas State – Oklahoma, while Texas A&M tries to save its season at Alabama. Oklahoma State and TCU complete the biggest week of the season for the Big 12, while Washington – Oregon and Stanford – Arizona State supply this week’s Pac-12 drama. Notre Dame and FSU play in primetime.

Playoff Poll

Once again, a shakeup. At this point I’m as confused anyone. The second and third tiers also see some movement, as we begin to question what we thought we knew about certain contenders.

College Football Playoff

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) Baylor

2) Florida State vs. 3) Ole Miss

MSU is a no brainer, even if I think the Bulldogs will drop one at some point. FSU gets the benefit of the doubt for a week, when the Notre Dame game should largely decide its fate. Ole Miss moves up one slot, while Baylor sneaks in over a group of other contenders.

Second Tier

Oregon

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Now the week-to-week movement becomes more pronounced. Oregon is back on the bubble, logically moving past Michigan State. Oklahoma didn’t look great against Texas, but that rivalry tends to be very close even when the teams are mismatched.

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Alabama

TCU

Notre Dame was in my third tier last week and shouldn’t move up after a close call against North Carolina. TCU is still in the Big 12 mix after the heartbreaking Baylor loss but will need to run the table from here on out. Alabama drops after an ugly win because the Crimson Tide haven’t beaten anyone.

Pac-12 Report

The death knell has nearly sounded for Washington State (though hopefully not for head coach Mike Leach’s time in Pullman). If the opening loss to Rutgers didn’t raise a red flag, the succeeding one to Nevada certainly did and it’s pretty much been downhill from there. Save for a great defensive effort and fourth-quarter comeback against Utah, the Cougars have simply not improved enough in the third year of the Leach era to contend in the Pac-12. Thursday saw WSU fall to 2-5 at Stanford in a depressingly predictable contest, with the Cardinal outgaining the Cougs by more than 200 yards and allowing a mere five of 19 third-down conversions.

From a basic schematic perspective, WSU’s struggles with Stanford clearly stem from Leach’s Air Raid system, which, despite its many strengths, is particularly ill-equipped to beat the Cardinal. The rigidity of the Air Raid, such as its insistence on four-receiver sets and near-refusal to run the ball, can work well against many opponents. But Stanford’s dominant front, populated with pass-rushers capable of quickly beating their blockers one-on-one, makes everything much more difficult for the Air Raid. Other spread teams like Oregon (even in losses to the Cardinal) have a great deal more flexibility when the primary offensive focus isn’t working, whereas the Cougars more or less have to try to pass their way out of any problems. The result sometimes isn’t pretty.

Washington – Cal was notable for being the first time all season we’ve seen either team play as expected. UW finally looked like the defensive force it was supposed to be, while the Bears actually looked overmatched for once. The Huskies built a giant lead, capitalized on Cal’s mistakes and bounced back nicely after the bumbling Stanford loss (and bye). We’ve gotten used to seeing the Bears look competent on the field this year, but this could be a potential turning point. The remaining six games are brutal: UCLA, Oregon, at Oregon State, at USC, Stanford and BYU. If only Cal had beaten Arizona! Two more wins to get to bowl eligibility seems like a lot to ask for from that schedule.

Oregon also rebounded nicely from a disappointing loss to throttle UCLA in Pasadena. I’ve been calling for it for a while and I think the national media is finally catching on – UCLA isn’t very good. In theory, there’s loads of talent on the Bruins’ roster, but you wouldn’t know that watching this team. UO smacked UCLA around for three quarters before the backups allowed the final score to look respectable, but make no mistake, this was a beatdown. It bodes well for the Ducks that getting one lineman – left tackle Jake Fisher – back from injury made this much of a difference, but the Bruins are in a world of trouble. My prediction from August that this squad was all hype seems to be coming true.

The last game of the week was Arizona’s upset loss to USC, if you can really call it that. Reactionary rankings happen all the time, but ‘Zona moving from unranked to 10^th in the last poll was especially egregious. Look, the Wildcats are a good team. They played well against Oregon. But that was the first time all year UA had gotten a win of any quality and it came against a team that not only played poorly but was also down FOUR offensive linemen. Simply put, the Wildcats are not great. USC is flat-out better, despite being coached by Steve Sarkisian. The Trojans have the inside track to the title game again, because Arizona State (which holds the tiebreaker over SC) faces a murderer’s row the final seven games.*

*You thought Cal’s slate was nasty? How about Stanford, at Washington, Utah, Notre Dame, at Oregon State, Washington State and at Arizona? Yikes.

So, how about that Utah – Oregon State matchup? This is a very interesting contest that should make for great TV. I like Utah, which should be 5-0 and leading the South. The Utes appear to finally be ready to play for real in the Pac-12. But I also like OSU, a team that isn’t getting nearly enough credit going into this week. Reser Stadium is not an easy place to play and the Beavers defense has been impressively stout so far this year. I very much doubt OSU quarterback Sean Mannion is going to play as badly as he did at USC and the week off could only help the Beavs, a team that has seen a fair amount of injuries already. Moreover, how much do we know about Utes QB Kendal Thompson? He played fantastic against UCLA, taking over for the ineffective Travis Wilson, but that was the first extensive game action of his career. Oregon State could easily win this game.

UCLA is also on upset alert (although is it really an upset at this point?) at Cal. The Bears, as I said previously, badly need to win to keep the dream of a bowl game alive. They could find some traction against the wounded Bruins. To be clear, UCLA is the far more talented side and should win handily. The Bruins have the defensive athleticism to hem in the “Bear Raid” and the offensive firepower to make short work of the talent-strapped Bears D. Strange things can happen in this series, though. The teams have traded home blowouts the past four seasons despite Cal not being all that good… and UCLA won last year in Pasadena.

Colorado at USC is the only conference game this weekend that figures to be a complete dud, as CU – though much improved from the last two seasons – simply doesn’t have the horses (or Buffaloes, I guess) to keep up with SC. I don’t have a lot of faith in the coaching in L.A., but that shouldn’t matter too much against the talented, albeit thin, Trojans. Look for USC to revive the up-tempo attack it showed early in the year. It worked well against inferior competition before, so why not now? The Buffs will need a big game from QB Sefo Liufau to stay competitive and that still might not be enough.

Washington and Oregon renew their contentious rivalry in Eugene, though to be honest the rivalry could use some spicing up. UO has been quiet in victory, UW quiet in defeat these past ten years. As an Oregon fan I certainly don’t want to see anything but a big Ducks victory, sure. But nastiness has given way to respect (at least between the players) during this decade-long streak. The Huskies have the front seven capable of slowing Oregon’s offense to a crawl, which will be crucial because I don’t think the offense can win it alone. UW isn’t dynamic enough to win a shootout, so it will be up to the defense – particularly the line – to ground the Ducks and turn the game into a slugfest. Oregon should win… but the last time this team was a three-touchdown favorite at home, things didn’t go as planned.

The nightcap is Stanford at Arizona State, a matchup the Cardinal dominated in two meetings last year. ASU’s explosive but small offense had no answer for the monstrous Cardinal front, which forced the Sun Devils into short gains and miscues time and time again. The teams aren’t exactly the same this year. Stanford’s offense has, if anything, gotten worse. The same is true for the ASU D. However, in the end I expect this contest to end in similar fashion as in 2013 – with the Cardinal grinding things out, bleeding the clock and containing the Sun Devils’ big-play ability. Kevin Hogan not playing like garbage at QB would help.

Heisman Watch

The Heisman list is usually crowded at this point in the season. Not so this year. Surprisingly, upsets and off-field incidents have sapped the field of several contenders. FSU QB Jameis Winston is assuredly out. Georgia running back Todd Gurley might be suspended for the year. Baylor QB Bryce Petty weathered an early injury and has to play catch-up. Right now, these are the only guys worthy of consideration.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is almost certainly the best player in the country and proves it every time he doesn’t have to play with three backup offensive linemen.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Prescott isn’t nearly the QB Mariota is, but he’s the type of gritty runner-passer who often garners Heisman buzz – especially on an undefeated team.

Evertt Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson has been inconsistent lately but was much improved at the start of the season and voters would love to see another winner from Notre Dame.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It’s time to re-evaluate the SEC West. Before the year started it looked like a three-team race between perennial heavyweights Alabama, LSU and Auburn, with Ole Miss as a potential dark horse. Two weeks into the season, Texas A&M had thrown its hat into the ring as well, creating a five-team minefield. When Mississippi State upset LSU in Week 5, it appeared nearly the entire division was playoff-worthy (and it’s not as if Arkansas is some patsy, either).

Now? The picture is somewhat less rosy. LSU has proved to be a pretender, with whispers that this is the worst Tigers defense under Les Miles. The same is true of Texas A&M, which got throttled in back-to-back weeks by the Mississippi schools. Ole Miss and MSU have been great, but Alabama and Auburn have been surprisingly pedestrian in many ways. Auburn should have lost to Kansas State and got beat by the first really good team it played, while Alabama… well, look at the Crimson Tide’s schedule and tell me exactly why this team has earned a top-ten poll spot.

The problem has been the domino effect, which has reared its head in several seasons of late. It all began this year with South Carolina, which has proved to be a mediocre squad. But in the preseason, the Gamecocks were ninth, which made Texas A&M’s blowout of SC on opening day highly impressive. The Aggies rode that “big” win to a No. 6 national ranking before getting exposed by the Mississippi schools. Mississippi State, in particular, benefitted from knocking off a “powerhouse” in A&M. Now, despite losing back-to-back games in decisive fashion, the Aggies are still ranked, because the teams that beat them are so good. What was a major contributing factor to Ole Miss and MSU being highly ranked? Beating A&M. There’s a problem here…

That’s not to say the SEC West isn’t a very tough division. It is. But despite the circuitous logic of the polls, it also clearly isn’t quite as dominant as September seemed to indicate. This is important to remember heading forward as the playoff committee begins to hash out the teams it thinks should get priority. Unless a very specific set of circumstances unfold, there’s no way a single division should get two teams into the playoff. That’s what the regular season of college football has always been about – weeding out teams in “one-game playoff” scenarios. The danger of moving to a true playoff has always been the potential of cheapening what is routinely called the greatest regular season in sports. The committee needs to ensure this doesn’t happen.

Speaking of the polls, well, even in the twilight of the BCS they’re proving just how fallible human voters are. This week, both the media and coaches’ polls have Michigan State above Oregon and Oklahoma over TCU. How does this pass the most basic logic test? All four teams have exactly one loss. Oregon beat Michigan State and TCU beat Oklahoma. On what planet does it make sense to have the Spartans and Sooners ranked ahead of the Ducks and Horned Frogs? For all the frustration with the BCS computers, it’s sobering to see that it was the human element that skewed the process all along.

Stanzi Watch

A three-time winner? Everett Golson may have this thing wrapped up before Halloween. Last season we didn’t get a single player with more than a pair of weekly Stanzis. Golson just notched his third in six games and there are already more two-time winners than all of last year. More proof that 2014 is turning into 2007, Part II. Here are this week’s winners and the updated standings.

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: BYU

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won in overtime

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: North Carolina

Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by seven

Bryce Petty, Baylor

Opponent: TCU

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by three

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Opponent: Auburn

Performance: Two INT, won by 15

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston

Opponent: Memphis

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State:1

Justin Holman, UCF: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Conner Halliday, WSU: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane:1

Trevone, Boykin, TCU: 1

Reggie Bannafon, Louisville: 1

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, California: 1

Bryce Petty, Baylor: 1

Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason, Georgia: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Brian Burrell, Fresno State: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

The Stanzi list will need to be cut soon, to make room for those serious about winning. There will be no one-time winners here, no sir! My money is on Golson, but that's the fun thing about this game: you never know until the final whistle blows. 

Hail Mary madness

National Overview

Well, then. That was insane. This post took a long time to write thanks due to the inherent difficulty in processing what it was we witnessed last week, possibly the craziest in the 150-plus-year history of college football. Where to begin? Oregon’s stunning home flop against unranked Arizona? UCLA’s, to Utah? How about the brutal fate suffered by Alabama, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, LSU and Stanford, all of which bowed out on the road against ranked foes? In all, four of the top six, five of the top 10 and 10 of the top 25 teams ranked in the Week 6 AP Poll went down.

I said a few weeks ago we seemed headed for a 2007 redux, when no dominant team emerged and a two-loss LSU squad backdoored its way into a BCS title, but this is unprecedented territory. On Friday morning Oregon’s championship hopes appeared all but dashed; by midnight Saturday, the Ducks were as alive as anyone. With the exception of Florida State’s fluffy ACC schedule, no team will be favored to run the table. The SEC and Pac-12 are too good, the Big Ten’s last unbeaten squad (Nebraska) just lost and the Big 12… is just tough enough to predict a loss somewhere for both TCU and Baylor. As in 2007, things are going to come down to the final week of the season and the conference title games. Even then, it’s unlikely there will be four clear-cut playoff-worthy teams.

The biggest winners of the weekend were clearly the Mississippi schools, which responded to the national spotlight by going two-for-two against top-six teams. It’s hard to imagine either Ole Miss or Mississippi State finishing unbeaten in the rugged SEC West, though. While both are great stories, there’s a reason the Rebels and Bulldogs were predicted to finish behind multiple other powerhouses in their own division: talent. Good though both Mississippi teams are, Alabama, Auburn and possibly Texas A&M are all more stacked. Stumbles are inevitable.

Now the question becomes, “Which ranked team falls next?” Stanford (though it already lost twice) faces a dangerous Washington State team Friday. Oregon and UCLA meet in a potential playoff elimination game (ditto for Georgia – Missouri) and 5-0 Arizona has USC. However, the obvious choice(s) are the two matchups of top-10 foes: Auburn at Mississippi State and TCU at Baylor. We’ll finally get to see just how good this Baylor squad is, and while I’d lean toward Auburn, MSU has proved to be formidable.

There’s a handful of other good contests Saturday, such as the renewal of the Red River Shootout (never forget), Louisville versus Clemson, Ole Miss at Texas A&M (another chance for a top team to fall) and disappointing Washington at surprising Cal. Don’t laugh! Cal is in first place in the Pac-12 North! And keep an eye on Georgia Tech, sitting at 5-0 and hosting defending Coastal Division champ Duke. Fun all around.

Playoff Poll

The seismic shift last week threw my playoff into disarray. All four of my finalists went down. They’ll reappear in the second and third tiers this week, but the final four is all new. What a world we live in.

College Football Playoff

1) Auburn vs. 4) Ole Miss

2) Florida State vs. 3) Mississippi State

Gulp. Yeah, that’s three SEC schools. Fear not, though. All three reside in the same division and have to play each other. It’s unlikely more than one makes the final cut. I like MSU over Ole Miss because the Bulldogs have two quality wins (LSU, Texas A&M) to the Rebels’ one (Alabama).

Second Tier

Michigan State

Alabama

TCU

Oklahoma

Baylor

Close road losses to ranked teams keep the Crimson Tide and Sooners in the second group, while Michigan State quietly moves up after a dominating, then momentarily scary, victory over Nebraska that solidified the Spartans’ Big Ten dominance. TCU and Baylor will fight for the right to be considered for the final four this week.

Third Tier

Oregon

Texas A&M

Notre Dame

How times change. Oregon and A&M were the clear-cut leaders for the playoff after the first month of the season. Why not Arizona over the Ducks? Well, impressive though the Wildcats’ win was, it’s hard to argue ‘Zona is a better team overall than UO. I need to see more than an upset of a team with a wrecked offensive line to truly buy in. The Fighting Irish got lucky against Stanford, but they’re undefeated and should remain so until the Florida State matchup.

Pac-12 Report

Whoa. Who had both Oregon AND UCLA going down at home to unranked teams? Yeesh. If the conference championship game was held this week, the representatives would be Cal and Arizona. Approximately zero percent of analysts (or fans) saw that coming. Now, the Wildcats are better positioned to actually win their division because they’re A) simply better and B) just beat the most talented team on their schedule. Cal, although a surprising 4-1 (with a loss to Arizona that should have been a win), still has to face Oregon, Stanford, USC and UCLA. That’s too tough a slate to expect the Bears to navigate.

‘Zona’s upset of the Ducks really wasn’t that shocking when you consider the problems Oregon has. Losing four O-linemen to injury would cripple almost every team and the Wildcat’s 3-3-5 stack defense has traditionally given UO trouble. Arizona is also a good team in its own right. For the Ducks, the answer seems simple: if the line gets healthy, this can still be a very good team. If not, it won’t happen. Opponents will do exactly what WSU and Arizona did: beat the Ducks at the point of attack and force the offense into quick, short-yardage plays.

UCLA’s issues are actually even more widespread, which isn’t good if you’ve watched Oregon the past couple of games. The Bruins have been inconsistent in every area, massively disappointing on defense and seemingly unable to deal with any kind of adversity. Quarterback Brett Hundley has been merely average despite a wave of preseason hype. The offense has been predictable and the line has been among the worst in the country. You thought Ducks QB Marcus Mariota was dealing with pressure? Try being poor Hundley, who was sacked a ridiculous 10 times in the Utah loss alone. It will be interesting to see how both teams adjust this weekend when they meet.

Stanford blew the Notre Dame game because of course they did. The Cardinal’ M.O. the past few years has been to dominate in-conference and embarrass themselves outside it, as seen by pretty much every non-Pac-12 game Stanford has played in the David Shaw era. I’m still astounded the Stanford head coach is thought of so highly; his offenses have been pathetically vanilla and his default strategy is to go ultra-conservative and lean on the defense to win games. When will his coaching acumen finally be questioned?

Because this is the Pac-12, all three of the late games (of which Utah – UCLA was one) went down to the wire. Arizona State and backup QB Mike Bercovici showed remarkable poise in never giving up at USC and winning on (yet another) wild Hail Mary. Bercovici threw for 510 yards and five touchdowns without an interception, incredible numbers for a guy making his first road start. SC’s defense, on the other hand, was abysmal, allowing scores on plays of 73 and 46 yards in the final three minutes.

However, that wasn’t even (arguably) the craziest moment of the night. Washington State and Cal staged a laughably defense-free shootout on the Palouse, combining for more than 1,200 yards passing and 12 TD’s. The Cougars’ Connor Halliday set an NCAA record with 734 yards, yet WSU still lost. How? Couging it, of course: a missed chip-shot field goal as time expired. Still, Wazzu could have put the game away much earlier had it not allowed back-to-back kickoff return TD’s in the third quarter. This was a total team loss.

So what’s on tap this week? Glad you asked. WSU is at Stanford Friday, and while the Cardinal have fared quite well against the Air Raid in the past it’s hard to feel particularly confident about this Stanford team. The Cougars are in desperation mode and have the playmakers to give any defense trouble. Oregon –UCLA will be a referendum on which preseason favorite was more overrated, while Washington heads to Cal to try to save their season. An 0-2 league start would be devastating for the Huskies, but the Bears could move to 3-1 and be one win away from bowl eligibility by knocking off UW.

The last game is USC, another disappointment, at Arizona. SC is undoubtedly the more talented squad. Unfortunately, in an all-too-familiar scenario for fans of a Steve Sarkisian-coached team, the Trojans don’t seem to be getting the most out of their players. Arizona has really only looked great in two games – the opener against UNLV and last week – so it certainly wouldn’t be out of the question for the Wildcats to have a come-down loss here. But that also puts a lot of the onus on Sarkisian to actually get things done, which is apparently asking a lot.

Random Thoughts and Observations

 The bizarre rise of the national Hail Mary success rate this season has to be addressed. There are always a few last-gasp desperation heaves that work out in the course of a season, but 2014 has seen the Hail Mary literally go viral. I’ve lost track of how many games have seen a successful one, and we’re only in Week 7. Off the top of my head, there were halftime Hail Mary’s in Houston – BYU and Oregon State – USC as well as the game winners in Arizona – Cal and Arizona State – USC and another mid-major contest I can’t quite recall. While the Hail Mary is scary for a defense, it has that name for a reason: it’s supposed to be a lucky play to convert.

Who’s to blame for the spike this year? Defensive backs across the country are at fault, to be sure. However, the bigger problem has to be coaching. In any kind of late-game jump ball scenario, defenders are (or should be) taught to bat the ball down or, as a last resort, tackle the receiver for a penalty rather than allow a game-winning completion. Look at the “Jael Mary” from ASU – USC. Two Trojans attempt to cradle catch the football, while the Sun Devils’ Jaelen Strong (for whom the play is named) leaps in front and high-points the ball. Uncontested TD, and a black eye for the SC staff.

Stanzi Watch

It was a somewhat quieter week for the Stanzis, but there were a couple of notable performances. Florida’s Jeff Driskel avoided a Stanzi because he was pulled before backup Treon Harris saved the day against Tennessee. However, Arkansas State’s Fredi Knighten, Toledo’s Logan Woodside, Notre Dame’s Everett Golson and Bowling Green’s James Knapke all joined the multiple winners club, giving FSU’s Jameis Winston some competition. At this rate, we’ll have a photo finish for college football’s most ignominious award! Here are this week’s winners and the standings.

Brian Burrell, Fresno State

Opponent: San Diego State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

James Knapke, Bowling Green

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

Trevone Boykin, TCU

Opponent: Oklahoma

Performance: One INT, three FUM (one lost), won by four

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: Stanford

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Tyler Jones, Texas State

Opponent: Idaho

Performance: Two INT, won by five

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State

Opponent: Louisiana-Monroe

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 14

Grant Hedrick, Boise State

Opponent: Nevada

Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM, won by five

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Western Michigan

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Conner Halliday, WSU: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, California: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason, Georgia: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufao, Colorado: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

What a season this is becoming. After the past few weeks there’s no reason to expect anything less than complete madness. The best thing to do is sit back and watch it unfold.

Michigan's folly

National Overview

Mmm-hmm. A person could get used to the filet mignon that was Week 5. The party started Thursday night in Lubbock and didn’t end until late Saturday in Salt Lake City. In between we got a handful of shootouts, a Heisman statement (and a Stanzi statement!) and very nearly saw the nation’s top-ranked team go down. Now that’s some good eating. If October can match what the end of September provided, college football fans will be stuffed long before Thanksgiving.

Texas Tech actually held serve quite impressively against Oklahoma State but for an inexplicable inability to diagnose and defend the Cowboys’ deep ball. OSU quarterback Daxx Garman went nuts with his speedy home run-hitting receivers, completing seven passes of 20 or more yards. Yet the game was still in doubt until Tech QB Davis Webb left the game in the fourth quarter with a shoulder injury. Bad news for the Red Raiders, but a strong showing for Okie State to come back after a lifeless first quarter.

The big Pac-12 showdown materialized, then evaporated, in a bizarre game in Tempe behind a flurry of big plays from UCLA. Arizona State held a 17-6 lead early in the second quarter, then was hit by a 42-3 avalanche over the next 20 minutes of game time. The Bruins’ Brett Hundley returned from injury to post perhaps the best game of his career, as the QB tossed four touchdowns without an interception go along with 355 yards through the air. Were the doubters wrong all along? More on this later.

Georgia outlasted Tennessee in a back-and-forth affair that saw RB Todd Gurley’s Heisman hopes revived in a big way, thanks to a career high 208 yards on the ground. The Bulldogs are still hanging around in the SEC (and championship) discussion because of South Carolina’s second conference loss (the Gamecocks just can’t get out of their own way). UGA has too many issues on both sides to be considered a true contender, but in the surprisingly watered-down East this team has a great shot at a return to Atlanta.

Florida State’s second-half rally at North Carolina State – a place the Seminoles have struggled historically, for some reason – was enough to save an undefeated season, but it revealed even larger cracks in FSU’s armor that are getting harder and harder to ignore. I already moved the ‘Noles out of my playoff group last week; with more performances like this it wouldn’t be a surprise to see pollsters do the same. The ACC is not very good and style points are necessary. This is a new era for college football. Slipping by in a weak league is no longer a free ticket to the big game.

Texas A&M also had its closest call to date, coming back from a 14-point deficit to win in overtime. Arkansas closed poorly, but the Aggies really didn’t deserve to win. After witnessing South Carolina’s struggles, it’s looking more and more like this A&M squad is very good but not elite. We’ll see when the Aggies move into the meat of the SEC schedule. The West is a unforgiving minefield and at this point I don’t see any team navigating it unscathed.

Stanford also managed to live another day after a horrendously ugly game at Washington. Neither offense had much success doing anything and the 13-13 halftime score stood until the winning TD at the 4:29 mark of the fourth quarter. While UW’s hopes for much of anything out of the 2014 season are all but dashed, the Cardinal have once again positioned themselves to play the role of tortoise to Oregon’s hare in the Pac-12 race. The North will be very interesting to watch unfold.

In Big Ten news, the conference’s undefeated teams were whittled to one when Penn State got hammered at home by Northwestern, virtually assuring the Nittany Lions will be shut out of the new playoff. 5-0 Nebraska travels to Michigan State this week in a game that will likely serve as an eliminator for the national championship. MSU can’t afford another loss but is otherwise alive and well in the playoff chase, while the Cornhuskers could make a huge statement with a road win over the Spartans. I think MSU is easily the better team, but Nebraska has been tough to pin down over the past several seasons.

Several other big matchups loom as we enter October: Arizona – Oregon on Thursday night is a major trap game for the Ducks; there’s a trio of giant SEC West showdowns in Texas A&M – Mississippi State, Alabama – Ole Miss and LSU – Auburn; TCU opens Big 12 play by hosting Oklahoma; Stanford renews its rivalry with Notre Dame; Arizona State gets a chance at redemption at USC (where QB Taylor Kelly may return), and of course there’s Nebraska and Michigan State. October is upon us.

Playoff Poll

As I explained last week, it feels wrong to write a top 25 when we’re living in a post-BCS world. Instead, I’ll be doing a power poll for the “last four in” or playoff participants, followed by a second and third tier of contenders. It will look similar to how the NCAA Tournament "bubble" is formulated, with an emphasis on recent performances and the body of work in relation to other teams. Here is my first playoff power poll.

College Football Playoff

1) Oregon vs. 4) Oklahoma

2) Texas A&M vs. 3) Alabama

Oregon retains the top spot (barely) thanks to the best win any team has all year: 46-27 over Michigan State. Texas A&M nearly slipped but has a pair of decent wins: at South Carolina and against Arkansas in Arlington. Alabama has looked very good – though not, perhaps, at the level people expected – and hasn’t played anyone. Oklahoma has been more dominant than Alabama but struggled in its first game against a real team.

Second Tier

Florida State

Auburn

Just two schools for now. Auburn is lucky to be here following that near-loss at Kansas State, while FSU simply cannot be in the top four after playing three underwhelming games against all three of its FBS foes.

Third Tier

Michigan State

Baylor

UCLA

Mississippi State

The Spartans have the potential to run roughshod over the Big Ten and they’ll need to in order to move up. Baylor has a scary ceiling but is more susceptible to a “blown tire” loss than any other contender. UCLA gets credit for that big win at ASU but will need to continue to play like that to keep my trust. Mississippi State is the first real darkhorse after crushing LSU (although the Bulldogs nearly gave the game away late).

Pac-12 Overview

Well, let’s start with the Thursday showdown. UCLA at ASU. Two top-15 teams, albeit one missing its star QB. The Sun Devils had the home-field edge and came out hot. Then the Bruins responded with a 28-0 run that turned a 17-6 deficit into a 34-17 lead. UCLA scored in all three phases and had four TD’s of 80 yards (!) or more. ASU never got closer than 14 the rest of the way. It was a statement for the away team as it flexed its top-10/playoff bona fides. At least, that’s what the media narrative seems to be. It’s not exactly what happened.

Make no mistake, the Bruins turned things around in impressive fashion. ASU looked like the better team in the first quarter and then very suddenly didn’t. But a lot of inadequacies got covered up by a perfect storm of turnovers, situational play and luck. For one, UCLA will go another 50 years before it scores four TD’s of 80 or more yards in a single game. That kind of explosion just doesn’t happen. And yes, UCLA did win by 35 – but the defense gave up 626 yards to an offense helmed by a backup QB making his first start. The Sun Devils had four turnovers to the Bruins’ none, which made a reasonably close game look like a rout. And finally, ASU’s defense, as I explained in the preseason, could be the conference’s worst along with Colorado and Cal’s.

All this doesn’t mean UCLA isn’t good. It just means the praise emanating from the media (who picked the team to be better than it has been, if you recall) are far more self-serving than realistic. The Bruins still face a tough schedule and are by no means a favorite – yet – to make the playoff. Let’s see them win the division before we make grandiose predictions. A strong performance against Utah this week would be a good start and prove this team can be consistent.

Colorado – Cal sure was fun, eh? Seven TD passes on either side (tying an NCAA record), a frantic comeback followed by another frantic comeback and double OT. Not bad for the league’s alleged bottom-feeders. Granted, both defenses are pretty bad. But the Buffaloes and Bears are a combined 5-4 after this week, which doesn’t exactly scream “awful.” Cal, in particular, should be 4-0. I had the Bears pegged for two or three wins this year, but if the D can improve a bit the offense might be good enough to drag this squad into bowl contention.

There’s not much more to be said about Stanford – Washington I didn’t bring up earlier. The Huskies are clearly not ready to take that next step despite upgrading their coaching situation. The offense was abysmal against the Cardinal. Cyler Miles may or may not be the answer at QB, but the problems are much more wide-ranging than that. We now have five games of evidence to prove UW isn’t consistent at all. For the team to have any shot at competing in this conference that has to change. As for Stanford… well, Stanford is as Stanford does. It doesn’t seem to matter how bad QB Kevin Hogan plays. The defense will bail the offense out a half-dozen times. The other team will have at least one big play called back by penalty. And the Cardinal will generally win. So it goes.

Washington State got a season-saving win at Utah Saturday night, coming back from 21-0 and 27-10 holes to upend the previously undefeated Utes 28-27. It was a nice win for the Cougars, who truly deserved to win. Utah’s offense was curiously anemic against WSU’s famously soft D, failing to produce anything on offense outside of one long run. Then the defense collapsed in the fourth, costing the Utes a chance at a 4-0 start. I didn’t expect Utah to be a real player in the South race, but it was possible with a victory. Wazzu has an uphill climb to get back to bowl eligibility, but it’s nip-and-tuck wins like this that will make it happen.

The final game of the week was unfortunately a dud, as Oregon State stumbled to a 35-10 defeat in L.A. USC is a better team than the Beavers, but OSU showed a surprising lack of composure. I’m still not convinced the Trojans are that great, and all the Beavs could manage on offense was a field goal. Part of the problem was QB Sean Mannion, who turned in possibly the worst game of his career. However, the overall issue seems to be that OSU just isn’t very good. This team is in about the same place as it was last year, minus a superstar receiver in Brandin Cooks. Seven wins feels about right. SC is definitely one of the South favorites, although we’ll be able to confirm that – or not – this week against ASU.

If Taylor Kelly plays this week everything changes. I like ASU’s offense regardless, but Kelly makes the Sun Devils a whole different beast. It’s not exactly going out on a limb to predict a big day for the Trojans offense. If Kelly is good to go, Sparky can make this a shootout. I don’t know if ASU can win a grind-it-out affair. There’s a reason people still have faith in this SC squad: the Trojans have some athletes the Sun Devils can’t match. At one month into the season, though, this might be when USC’s depth issue (due to sanctions) rears its ugly head. I hope that’s not the case.

The Arizona – Oregon game Thursday is one people have been waiting for. On paper, the Ducks should cruise. ‘Zona’s defense is pretty bad, the offense has been up and down since the opener and the Wildcats are starting a freshman QB at Autzen. That feels like a recipe for disaster. But any honest Oregon fan could point out the biggest problem for UO so far this season: pass defense. The Ducks, whether by accident or design, have been content to drop everyone into soft coverage and let teams carve it up underneath. That’s a problem against the talented UA receivers, who can really make teams pay. Oregon should win, but the huge line (24 points) seems high.

Stanford gets a small chance at revenge for 2012’s Bad Officiating masterpiece when it returns to Notre Dame Stadium. The Cardinal haven’t looked great against quality competition this year, but I’m very hesitant to accept this Fighting Irish team is the real deal. They’re 4-0, but they haven’t played anyone. Stanford absolutely has what it takes to go on the road and get another gritty, ugly win. It’s so hard to trust this team, though. Will Hogan come through, or will the embattled Cardinal QB drop another multiple-turnover dud? Can the D save the offense yet again? Is Notre Dame really that good? We’ll find out Saturday.

Oregon State had better beware – this is not the same Colorado Buffaloes team from last year. Going into Folsom Field isn’t an easy task for any team, especially one playing there for the first time in 50 years. CU has improved substantially over the past couple of seasons and is finally ready to start competing – if not contending – in the Pac-12. OSU has looked shaky thus far. The Beavers are a better team, but if enough goes right for the Buffs early we could see this become a solid game. At the very least, it shouldn’t be a repeat of 2013’s 44-17 laugher in Corvallis.

It will be interesting to see how UCLA responds at home against Utah after notching its biggest win of the season. Utah’s reaction to that heartbreaking loss to WSU will also be intriguing. This was very nearly a matchup of two undefeated (and presumably ranked) teams. Can the Bruins keep the momentum going from that ridiculous outburst against the Sun Devils? They shouldn’t need to in order to win, but the Utes are a feisty bunch and will be smarting from last week’s frustrating finish. I expect Utah to keep it close for a half before falling too far behind… unless UCLA reverts to its early-season form.

The other late game is Cal at WSU, which should give us yet another marvelous reason to watch the Bears. Cal has played back-to-back high-scoring thrillers and there’s no real reason to expect anything different this week. I don’t think the Cougars are any better than Arizona, who the Bears should have beat. This collision of Air Raid attacks should feature roughly 120 passes and could even challenge Cal’s game last week with Colorado in the “TD passes thrown” department. I favor the Cougs at home, but there’s something about this improved Bears squad that I like. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it go either way.

Random Thoughts and Observations

There’s been so much turmoil around the Michigan program it’s hard to know where to begin with this. Let’s start with the facts. The Wolverines are the most successful program in FBS history, with 912 wins. They have the second-highest winning percentage of all time at .731, are third in recognized national championships with 11 and are one of only four teams to hold a winning record versus every conference, including independents (the others are Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee). This is a top-five program all-time any way you look at it. So why does it feel like UM has fallen into an irreparable state of decay? There are several factors, but in my estimation it stems from a toxic combination of arrogance, ignorance and unwillingness to adapt to the changing football landscape.

Since longtime coach Lloyd Carr (a disciple of legendary head man Bo Schembechler) was forced into retirement following the 2007 season, the Wolverines have taken a wild ride on the coaching carousel. At the time, Carr was viewed as a man who had seen the game pass him by, unable to respond to the new up-tempo spread attacks taking over the sport. This notion undoubtedly gained traction following the 2006 regular-season finale against rival Ohio State, when the previously stout Wolverines D was shredded by the Buckeyes’ spread offense. It was then bolstered after the stunning loss to Appalachian State to start the 2007 season and subsequent blowout defeat at the hands of Oregon, both of which ran fast-paced, futuristic spreads. Carr was said to be a coach who didn’t use his program’s talent to the best of its ability.

The move was not without controversy. Carr, after all, had led the team to the 1997 national title. More importantly, he was a “Michigan Man,” a nebulous term used in Ann Arbor for decades to describe players and coaches who did things the Right Way, from academics to sportsmanship to – above all – loyalty to the university. Carr had served under Schembechler, the ultimate Michigan Man, who is revered to this day by the Wolverine faithful. However, ultimately disappointment over how the 2007 season (with sky-high expectations) ended won out. Carr was gone.

Enter Rich Rodriguez. One of the early architects of the spread and zone-read, Rodriguez had built a minor dynasty at West Virginia. His teams led the now-defunct Big East out of the dark period that followed the defections of Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College to the ACC (the move that triggered the chain reaction of all conference realignment since) and reshaped the entire conference with style and substance, including a massive 2005 Sugar Bowl upset of SEC champion Georgia. Michigan, naturally, figured the best way to beat the spread was to hire a master of it. Unfortunately for all parties, this was destined to look like a knee-jerk reaction.

Rodriguez, for all his faults (which we’ll get to), was placed in a no-win situation. From the start, his tenure was marred by a not-insignificant faction of Michigan boosters and supporters who viewed their new coach with suspicion, if not downright disdain. Rodriguez was not a Michigan Man. He was a country bumpkin, born and raised in West Virginia. What right did he have to lead the great Michigan Wolverines? To make matters worse, Rodriguez wanted to change the entire identity of Michigan football, moving the team into a multiple-receiver offense that emphasized speed over power.

Never mind that this was exactly what the administration had in mind when Rodriguez was hired. It was a flagrant violation of the Michigan Way, of time-honored Big Ten principles such as running the ball downhill and bludgeoning opposing defenses into submission. The new offense was viewed as a fad, a gimmick, one that couldn’t possibly succeed in a “real” conference. Many players even bought into this and left the program. In this regard, Rodriguez was doomed from the start.

History has proved those doubters wrong. Even while Rodriguez posted middling records during his three-year tenure, Michigan’s offense was superb, going from 20 points per game in his first season to nearly 33 in his last. Moreover, the success nationwide of spread tactics has shown the “three yards and a cloud of dust” crowd to be woefully behind the times. The spread is here to stay. However, Rodriguez’s 15-22 record (largely due to his poor defenses) convinced the old guard they were right all along about this charlatan who didn’t play “big-boy football.” Rodriguez was fired in 2010.

All of this is not to say Rodriguez was blameless. He was, and remains, a mediocre defensive coach. The lack of progress made by his third season was not promising. NCAA sanctions regarding unauthorized extra practices were a black eye for the program. Yet there is little doubt he knows how to design quality offenses. His success at West Virginia and now Arizona speaks to that. Rodriguez’s ignominious time in Ann Arbor illustrates the importance of cohesion between an athletic department, a coach and a fan base. He was set up to fail, and he did.

However, the worst part of Rodriguez’s legacy at Michigan is the errant philosophical mindset he engendered among Wolverines boosters and higher-ups. Here was all the proof they had ever needed that spread offenses were nothing but smoke and mirrors. What the team needed in order to turn around was a return to Michigan football: running the ball from the I-formation and playing defense. That was what had worked for decades and what would still work now. With that in mind, UM hired Brady Hoke in 2011.

Hoke is an interesting case. Prior to his arrival at Michigan he was viewed as something of a defensive mastermind. He had only ever coached at mid-major schools, but spent time at UM as an assistant, so he qualified as a Michigan Man. The national narrative was that he would return the Wolverines to their roots with pro-style offensive formations and tough-minded D – just what Michigan wanted. And lo and behold, it worked: in Hoke’s first season UM won 11 games and upset Virginia Tech in the Sugar Bowl. Hosannas rang out in Ann Arbor, for Michigan was surely “back.”

The picture is a little grimmer now. After riding Rodriguez’s excellent classes (he did recruit well) to that sterling record in 2011, the Wolverines stumbled to 8-5 and 7-6 finishes the next two years and have started 2014 2-3. The defense has declined each of the past two seasons. To make matters worse, Michigan had an ugly and embarrassing episode last week when Hoke allowed QB Shane Morris to return to the field following a concussion, then compounded that error by claiming Morris “said he was fine.” Not only did this fly in the face of any injury protocol (let alone for concussions), it made Hoke look confused and oblivious to player safety. The rally on campus Tuesday to oust Hoke and athletic director Dave Brandon looked even worse.

So what happened? Did Hoke forget how to coach? Going back through his previous stops, the answer seems a little more obvious. Hoke spent six season at Ball State, going 4-8, 2-9, 4-7, 5-7, 7-6 and 12-1. Which season seems like the outlier? Nevertheless, it was enough for San Diego State to hire him before the Cardinals’ bowl game in 2008. Hoke promptly went 4-8, then 9-4 before moving on to Michigan. Once again, a program decided one good year was enough to qualify him as a great coach.

Combined with his in-progress numbers at UM, Hoke is 75-66 overall in 11-plus seasons as a head coach. His best years at each school are marked by one very specific thing: exceptional QB play. In 2008, Hoke’s middling tenure at Ball State was jolted to life by a 12-0 regular season, led by Nate Davis, the school’s all-time leading passer (at the time). Hoke parlayed that into a new job, where, after a 4-8 debut, he went 9-4, thanks to Ryan Lindley, who would finish his career as that school’s all-time leading passer. Once again, Hoke got a new gig. In his first year on the job, Michigan’s Denard Robinson – definitely an up-and-down player, but inarguably the most electric QB the Wolverines have ever had – posted a career-best 36 TD’s. What’s the common denominator here?

I don’t think Hoke is a bad coach, but it seems apparent he’s an average one who capitalized on some good fortune to move to a job above his station. I don’t blame him, but the on-field results speak for themselves. I doubt he makes it out of this season as the Wolverines’ head coach, and after this concussion incident, he shouldn’t. That would send the team right back to where it was not just four years ago, but seven; except this time, the old methods have failed. Michigan is not viewed as favorably as a coaching destination as it was when Carr left. The spread didn’t work. The old-school approach didn’t work. UM is 1-9 against Ohio State the last decade. It’s a dark time for the Wolverines. But after going through the events that led to this point, it’s hard to argue the program didn’t bring it upon itself.

Stanzi Watch

There were a couple of Stanzis this week I didn’t feel good about handing out because the players who earned them otherwise played so well. But rules are rules. I can’t go easy on guys because they also threw for a couple of scores. Turnovers are the biggest controllable factor for QB’s. As such, Week 5 saw the most weekly Stanzi winners ever, as an astounding 12 signal-callers picked up close wins despite handing the ball to the opposition. We also got out first two-time Stanzi-er of the season. Here are this week’s winners and the overall standings.

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State

Opponent: Texas Tech

Performance: Two INT, held on for 10-point win

Hutson Mason, Georgia

Opponent: Tennessee

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Patrick Towles, Kentucky

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: One INT (for TD), three FUM (lost two), won by 10

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State

Opponent: Boston College

Performance: Two INT, won by 3

James Knapke, Bowling Green

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: Three INT, won by five

Jameis Winston, Florida State

Opponent: North Carolina State

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 15

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville

Opponent: Wake Forest

Performance: Two FUM (one for TD), won by 10

Jared Goff, California

Opponent: Colorado

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Kevin Hogan, Stanford

Opponent: Washington

Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by seven

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Central Michigan

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: Syracuse

Performance: Two INT, three FUM (lost two), won by 16

Connor Halliday, Washington State

Opponent: Utah

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), one FUM, won by one

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 1

The real season has begun. Thank goodness.