Halloween week: Spooky, scary

National Overview

Another contender goes down. I can’t say I’m shocked Ole Miss lost – the Rebels have looked ripe for an upset ever since that opener against Boise State. You can point to the Alabama win all you want, but history proves victories like that over the Crimson Tide are far more reliant on luck than skill. Bo Wallace, a remarkably average quarterback, was stellar against ‘Bama, throwing for three touchdowns and no picks. His performance eerily echoed that of South Carolina’s Stephen Garcia in 2010, when the Gamecocks’ QB completed 19 of 20 passes in an upset of the defending champs.

Saturday, we got the real Wallace – mediocre throughout the night at Death Valley, then blowing the game with a gross duck into double coverage. The Rebels’ defense is still dominant, but Ole Miss had no business winning that game. LSU turned the ball over four times and won 10-7. If the Rebs were really a top-five squad those turnovers would have led to an easy victory. However, the team will get a shot at redemption this week against Auburn, so let’s not bury Ole Miss just yet.

Mississippi State also got a scare, although getting pushed by Kentucky is a lot worse than falling in a dogfight (or catfight) to LSU. MSU remains No. 1, but the defensive flaws have become glaringly obvious. The Bulldogs are going to lose a game, almost certainly at Alabama in a couple of weeks. This may be our 2014 Cinderella, but I doubt MSU will enjoy the same kind of charmed existence last year’s Auburn team did. It’s really just a matter of time.

In a less-watched but highly-significant development, West Virginia won at Oklahoma State, knocking the Cowboys out of Big 12 contention and moving the surprising Mountaineers to 6-2, 4-1 in league play. WVU’s rise is critical because it boosts Alabama’s non-conference resume AND gives the Big 12 another legitimate power. The ‘Eers still have to play Kansas State and TCU and could win the conference – or fall by the wayside, giving the Horned Frogs or Wildcats another quality win.

USC was eliminated from the playoff hunt with a close loss at Utah, a result that means the Utes still control their destiny. With one loss, it’s conceivable Utah could make the field, but running the table the rest of the way is a tall order. Not only do the Utes still have to play fellow South leaders Arizona and ASU, they also get Oregon AND Stanford in the regular season before facing one of them in the Pac-12 title game (were they to advance). I don’t see that happening.

Next week: Florida State is at Louisville, which is somehow ranked, on Thursday. Don’t get your hopes up there. TCU is at West Virginia in a huge Big 12 elimination game, Stanford is at Oregon and Ole Miss plays at Auburn in a de facto national quarterfinal. Late, Arizona get a shot to finally knock out UCLA in Pasadena and ASU tries to match its rival at home against Utah. Another good slate all around.

Playoff Poll

I don’t know that much really changed this week. Yes, Ole Miss lost, but because of the nature of the SEC West the Rebels will have their opportunity to climb back into the playoff. It’s unlikely more than one team from the same conference will qualify unless there’s some real chaos. And there just might be, but it hasn’t happened yet.

College Football Playoff

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) TCU

2) Florida State vs. 3) Oregon

The top two are easy. Oregon is currently most deserving one-loss team, as I stated last week. The No. 4 spot came down to a very tight decision between the Horned Frogs and the leading schools in the second tier, but I went with TCU because of how good the team looks right now. It took a collapse to lose to Baylor and TCU should be undefeated.

Second Tier

Michigan State

Ole Miss

Alabama

Auburn

The glut of SEC teams is intriguing, but the fact that they only have one quality win between them (Auburn at Kansas State, a game the Tigers should have lost) hurts their respective arguments. Ole Miss beating Alabama doesn’t count; the Crimson Tide don’t have any quality wins of their own. Michigan State is going to be let down by its schedule eventually, but as things currently sit the Spartans are just outside the top four.

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Georgia

Kansas State

Baylor

Notre Dame has the best loss of any team in the country but zero good wins. Georgia has a bad loss (South Carolina) and no good wins but has looked very good in recent weeks. Kansas State should be undefeated and has a victory over Oklahoma, but has yet to face the meat of its league schedule. Baylor’s West Virginia stumble looked bad, but could turn out to be respectable. All of these teams will have opportunities to improve their position in the coming weeks.

Pac-12 Report

It’s time to face facts: UCLA isn’t very good. The Bruins led by double-digits and still couldn’t prevent Colorado, the worst team in the conference, from forcing overtime. UCLA survived because it’s vastly more talented, but come on. This has gotten ridiculous. Arizona visits this week in a make-or-break game for this team. The Bruins have one last shot for relevance; this is their moment.

Washington State’s chance has already come and gone; the Cougars desperately needed a home win against Arizona last week to turn things around. The South leaders didn’t cooperate and WSU finds itself sitting at 2-6 with exactly zero guaranteed wins remaining. The Cougs could still qualify for a bowl by winning out, but the chances of that seem pretty remote. The defense simply isn’t good enough and the offense, though explosive, is one-dimensional to the point of being predictable.

The Oregon – Cal game played out more or less as I expected, with the Bears giving a decent effort but ultimately falling in a shootout. The Ducks’ defense is what it is – not that bad, but frustratingly erratic – which doesn’t make the 58-41 final that surprising (though UO did lead 52-28 midway through the third). The real test is obviously this week, when Stanford comes to town to try to ruin Oregon’s season for the third year in a row. The Cardinal have some problems of their own, making the outcome significantly murkier.

The disappointments of the weekend were Oregon State and Washington, which both fell in largely noncompetitive losses to Stanford and Arizona State, respectively. It’s hard to say if those results were the product of great performances by the Cardinal and Sun Devils, or if the Beavers and Huskies just aren’t that good. I lean toward the latter. OSU and UW have both been pretty anemic offensively this year and I don’t know that either will improve much as the season winds down.

The biggest winner was Utah, which edged USC in Salt Lake City thanks to a tiny bit of a pick play. The Utes are one fourth-quarter collapse (against WSU, of all teams) from being 7-0 and ranked in the top 10. Now the schedule gets nasty: Utah faces ASU, Oregon, Stanford and Arizona in consecutive weeks before the finale with Colorado. If the Utes run the table, they’re golden, but that’s asking quite a lot, especially now that their best player (receiver Dres Anderson) is out for the year.

The intrigue continues this week, when the North will (likely) be decided by Stanford’s visit to Oregon. The Cardinal aren’t what they have been the past few years thanks to a less dominant offensive line and an even larger dearth of playmakers at the skill positions. But the defense is still elite, and there’s the rub. Can UO, after getting ground to a halt the last two meetings, flip the script and return to the blowouts of 2010-11? The Ducks’ runaway victory of Michigan State this season would seem to indicate that, but Stanford knows Oregon better than the Spartans. It’s a game that has far-reaching implications.

Washington will look to end its two-game slide at Colorado, where the Buffaloes gave UCLA a fright one week ahead of schedule. You’d think the Huskies could similarly fix what ails them with a comfortable win over the league’s worst team, but that’s probably what the Bruins thought, too. CU has managed to battle several of the Pac-12’s middle class members admirably this year and owns a not-insignificant home-field advantage. UW should take this matchup seriously.

USC is at Washington State in what amounts to a last-gasp effort for the Cougars to save their season. I don’t see it happening; SC’s struggles have come against teams that could A) run the ball and B) out-physical them. WSU can do neither of those things, and while the Cougars will probably throw for 400 yards yet again, will it mean anything if they give up 50 points? Crazy things have been known to happen on the Palouse, but this feels like the end of the line for the Cougs in 2014.

Cal – Oregon State is another crossroads game, as neither side can afford another loss in the quest for bowl eligibility. OSU has a slightly easier road (and one more game remaining), but this is still pretty much a must-win for the Beavers. Given the teams’ similar records, this contest could also decide bowl pecking order. While Cal would be delighted to just be playing in the postseason, OSU fans would be more than a little miffed by another Vegas Bowl-type appearance. I think Cal’s explosive offensive will win the matchup with OSU’s strong D, forcing the Beavs into a shootout their offense can’t sustain.

The Arizona schools feature heavily in the nightcap, with Arizona at UCLA and Utah at ASU. The surprising Wildcats sit at 6-1 but outside the top 10, an indication voters and the playoff committee aren’t convinced the Oregon win was anything but a fluke. ‘Zona gets a chance to prove the doubters wrong this week by officially turning UCLA’s season from “disappointing” to “nightmarish.” UCLA has more next-level talent and could, in theory, still turn things around. But the ‘Cats 3-3-5 defense tends to give spread offenses fits (see Ducks, Oregon), and the Bruins are far less explosive than UO. Unless UCLA rediscovers its running attack, Arizona should win this game.

Finally, we have Utah – ASU. The Utes have lived a charmed existence this year, outside of that fourth quarter with Washington State. The trouble now is sustaining it, something I don’t think they’re capable of doing. The biggest issue for Utah this season has been QB play and now the biggest playmaker for this team is gone for the season. This is going to look like Stanford East: all defense and running game. The Sun Devils have been more competent defensively than they were supposed to be and still boast a very dangerous dual-threat attack. The QB situation is a bit unsettled, but both Taylor Kelly and Mike Bercovici have proved they can win games. I think ASU probably has the edge at home.

Heisman Watch

With the news that Georgia RB Todd Gurley has officially been suspended four games, his campaign is over. Reigning winner Jameis Winston has recused himself both for his off-field antics and his mediocre on-field performance (16 TD’s, nine interceptions). That leaves precious few players with a reasonable shot.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Here we are again, facing Stanford, with the conference title and a Heisman trophy on the line. If Oregon keeps winning and Mariota plays well, he will win the award. Period.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Prescott means a whole lot to MSU and has gradually improved as a passer throughout his career. In the unlikely event the Bulldogs go undefeated he could become the favorite.

Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson’s got his chances to move up against ASU and USC, but it might take a fall from one of the other candidates to really make him a contender.

Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU

Dude threw seven TD’s against Texas Tech. Boykin has really matured as a passer and while he’s not as accurate as some of his peers his yards-per-attempt is outrageous.

Random Thoughts and Observations

A pair of Pac-12 passers make the news this week. First, Washington State QB Connor Halliday, who sits exactly 2,000 yards short of the NCAA FBS single-season passing record of 5,833 (5,336 in the 12-game regular season) set by Texas Tech’s B.J. Symons in 2003. Barring injury, Halliday will assuredly surpass at least the latter figure, and he has an outside shot at the overall record. But will it be an empty accomplishment? Just as with his single-game record of 734 against Cal earlier this year, Halliday’s numbers could come largely in defeat. The Cougars sit at 2-6 and will probably miss a bowl (which would make the 5,833 mark much more difficult to match). Symons at least went 8-5 during his campaign – how much would Halliday’s record be worth if it came during a 4-8 season? It’s not his fault the WSU defense is terrible, but it’s still a question worth pondering.

Oregon State’s Sean Mannion will likely set a new record this very week against Cal. The Beavers’ signal-caller needs a mere 195 yards to become the Pac-10/12’s all-time leading passer. Going up against the worst pass defense in the conference, he could have that by halftime. It’s nice for fans that Mannion will do it at home, but once again I question the validity of the record. Mannion started nearly all of his disastrous 3-9 freshman season in 2011, tossing 16 TD’s to 18 INT’s but padding his career total with 3,328 yards because OSU was always behind. His sophomore season he started hot, got hurt and wasn’t the same after, throwing for 2,446 with 15 TD’s and 13 INT’s. This season, Mannion’s numbers have again been pedestrian – 1,698 yards, seven TD’s and five INT’s to this point – leaving us with one year, 2013, when he actually put up impressive totals.

Last season, with the Beavers force-feeding future first-round NFL pick Brandin Cooks the ball (128 catches, 1730 yards, 16 TD’s) and OSU devoid of any type of running game, Mannion threw for 4,662 yards, 37 scores and 15 picks. That’s an pretty resume, and he probably should have capitalized on it by declaring for the draft. But people who have watched Mannion’s entire career see a different player, a guy a who has an outlier season that looks great and otherwise boasts a 38-36 TD-to-INT ratio. He’ll get the record. But he won’t really deserve to be mentioned with the greats the Pac-12 has seen at the position.

Stanzi Watch

It’s time to cut the list to just the finalists, AKA the multiple-time winners. Everett Golson is no longer the unquestioned leader, as Logan Woodside has made yet another push toward the coveted Stanzi. Who will notch one this week? Here are Week 9’s winners and the finalists.

Logan Woodside, Toledo

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Cooper Rush, Central Michigan

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by six

Cole Stoudt, Clemson

Opponent: Syracuse

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by 10

Anthony Jennings, LSU

Opponent: Ole Miss

Performance: Two INT, won by 3

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State

Opponent: Penn State

Performance: Two INT, won in overtime

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

Justin Holman, UCF: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

And there you have it. We’re approaching the end of it all, but there’s no end in sight to the fun! Week 10 will surely provide more of the same.

To Zi or not Stanzi

National Overview

Two more down. Baylor and Notre Dame exited the ranks of the unbeaten Saturday, one in a blaze of glory and another in a blaze of... awful defense. It shouldn’t be hard to figure out which team was which. The top five wasn’t the only place to see shakeups, though. Oklahoma – the ostensible Big 12 favorite – was almost assuredly eliminated from playoff contention after a second loss (to Kansas State). Dark horse Oklahoma State suffered a similar fate, getting thrashed by TCU. Stanford was also knocked out of the title chase after another offensive flop, leaving the SEC essentially unchallenged at the top of the polls.

The week started with a bang on Thursday (not counting Tuesday’s Louisiana-Lafayette – Texas State game) when Oregon State took Utah to double-overtime. The Utes are still a wild card in the Pac-12 South with their quarterback situation unsettled but could end up having a huge impact before everything is said and done. Saturday morning saw the two Big 12 upsets, as Baylor wilted in Morgantown and Oklahoma fell apart at home. Alabama annihilated Texas A&M 59-0 to stay relevant, while UCLA kept its slim hopes alive by narrowly edging Cal.

Marshall blasted FIU to remain the only undefeated mid-major. The Thundering Herd will likely finish 12-0 but be left out of the playoff because the schedule strength just isn’t there. Oregon pounded Washington yet again to remain the North’s leader, while Notre Dame fell to FSU in a result that will probably doom the Fighting Irish’s playoff bid. If ND finishes with one loss there’s a chance, but the Irish face a fairly daunting slate in the next month and a half.

The pickings are rather slim this week, considering where we are in the season. Michigan is at Michigan State, but that rivalry has taken a turn for the worse in recent years. West Virginia is at Oklahoma State in a surprisingly meaningful Big 12 contest. We’ll get to see if Ole Miss’ upset of Alabama was a fluke when the Rebels travel to LSU, while Auburn hosts South Carolina in another test for the Tigers. The Pac-12 has a good night lineup, featuring USC at Utah and Arizona State – Washington. Unfortunately, that’s about it.

Playoff Poll

I’m not sure how we got here this fast, but the discussion has already shifted to which one-loss team is the most worthy. The top three teams are easy. It’s where we go from there that makes this confusing.

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) Oregon

2) Florida State vs. 3) Ole Miss

The Mississippi schools are obvious, although I anticipate at least one loss for both of them – at Alabama is the most likely candidate for MSU, while Auburn’s visit to Ole Miss could be the Rebs’ undoing. FSU is probably safe for the remainder of the regular season, considering the dearth of talent in the ACC. Oregon is the tough one, beating out a host of other one-loss schools.

Second Tier

Michigan State

Alabama

Auburn

TCU

The Spartans are still hiding in plain sight, waiting for the smoke to clear. Alabama finally looked like Alabama against Texas A&M. Auburn was off, but TCU made a statement that the collapse against Baylor was a fluke. Oregon beats out these teams by virtue of “best win.”

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Georgia

Kansas State

Baylor

Notre Dame acquitted itself well in Tallahassee and deserves to stay in the conversation, if only peripherally. Georgia has crept back into contention, but I’m skeptical of the Dawgs chances given how much better the SEC West is than the East. Kansas State and Baylor both have one loss and would need to win out to garner any support for the playoff.

Pac-12 Report

I guess I was right about Utah – Oregon State. The Beavers certainly had their chances, holding the Utes to 62 yards passing and still losing in double overtime. You can’t blow opportunities like that in the Pac-12 and expect to have a successful season. Utah is good – the defense, in particular, is powerful – but not elite. OSU’s offensive issues are no longer a matter of “fixing” something that’s broken. The Beavs simply don’t have very many playmakers. To have any chance at a bowl they’ll need to rely on the D, which has been excellent to this point. Without a reprieve from the offense, though, things could spiral out of control quickly.

UCLA managed to survive a back-and-forth affair with Cal to remain relevant in at least the conference title chase, but it wasn’t pretty. Good though the Bears may be offensively, there’s no excuse for a team with the Bruins’ talent to need all 60 minutes to put the game away. There’s something just off about this squad. It’s hard to tell if it’s the coaching, the players or the difficult schedule, but UCLA hasn’t looked right all season. Cal, on the other hand, has looked solid. It’s a shame the remaining schedule is so tough, because this team deserves to go to a bowl.

As expected, USC crushed Colorado, knocking the Buffaloes down to 0-4 in conference play. It’s no surprise CU is still the doormat of the South, but the performance since the 2-2 start is a little troubling. The Trojans, meanwhile, have moved to 4-1 and sit atop the division, at least until Arizona State wins again. Could that Hail Mary be the difference between a Pac-12 title and a second-place South finish? Gulp. SC is still in good shape, but not controlling one’s own destiny is a little scary.

Oregon clobbered Washington yet again in a series that has increasingly begun to look routine. UO has beaten the spread each of the last 11 meetings and won by an average of just more than 25 points – exactly what the difference was Saturday. It doesn’t seem to matter where the game is played or even if the Huskies have advantages (such as their great defensive front this year), the result is the same. At 1-2 with losses to Oregon and Stanford, UW is firmly out of the North race for the time being. The Ducks appeared to be back in form… but we’ll only know for sure if they can keep this up.

Lastly, there was the oddity that was Stanford – ASU. It never felt like the Cardinal were particularly engaged with the game or even really in it, but they weren’t mathematically eliminated until the final minutes. The defense, at least, is still mostly there. The offense is another story. Stanford has been so bad it’s surprising there haven’t been more calls for a quarterback change, although I’m not sure anyone could move the ball with the way the O-line has been playing. ASU is trending up, Stanford down.

Oregon and Cal play Friday in Santa Clara to start the Pac-12’s weekend off. There should be points in this one. UO looked good against Washington’s anemic attack but the Bears are a different story. Fortunately for the Ducks, Cal’s defense is so terrible one or two stops should do it. I don’t see the Bears holding Oregon to less than 40, and even with some of UO’s defensive concerns it’s hard to imagine the Ducks giving up that many points. It may take a while to pull away, but it’ll happen.

Surely UCLA wouldn’t continue to struggle at Colorado, right? This has the feel of the perfect kind of get-right game the Bruins could desperately use. If not… nearly losing to Cal was bad enough. The voters put their trust in you, UCLA! You’re back in the top 25! Don’t let those good* people down. The Buffs have a shot if they return to the scrappy play that defined them in September, but I’m not optimistic. UCLA will finally put together a complete game in Boulder and look like the team that got so much hype in the preseason.

*Debatable

Oregon State is at Stanford in an increasingly tight series that has seen its past two games go down to the wire. The argument can be made that the Beavers should have won both of the last two years and they’ll surely be out for some revenge. Unfortunately, OSU’s offense might make that a bit difficult. Unless the Beavs can find some magic solution this week, the Cardinal’s stout defense figures to make like miserable for QB Sean Mannion again. Of course, the same could be said of Stanford’s offense, and the OSU defense is no slouch either. This contest has the potential to be very, very ugly.

Arizona is at WSU in what I would have absolutely called a trap game had the Wildcats not fallen to USC last week. The Cougars can play with almost anyone – it’s just the winning thing they have trouble with – and that will be true against UA. The Air Raid should do its Air Raid-y thing at home, which could lead to a shootout. Wazzu has struggled against good offenses but is still very dangerous. The ‘Cats had better beware. I’ll take Arizona, but it’s not a lock.

Raise your hand if you thought Utah would be ranked higher than USC when the teams met in Salt Lake City. I’m thinking no one saw that coming. The Utes have impressed so far, playing great defense and moving within one fourth-quarter collapse of a 6-0 start. They have to be considered a South player. However… I think SC wins. The Trojans typically do well when matched up with similarly pro-styled teams (like Stanford) and the Utes’ QB situation is beyond a mess. This feels like a “take back the power” game for the visitors.

The second half of the nightcap features Arizona State at Washington in a huge game for both sides. ASU needs to stay ahead of USC and can’t afford to stumble in one of its easier remaining games (crazy, but true). UW has already lost to the two presumed North heavyweights and has to win to have any faint hope of a backdoor division title. The Sun Devils romped in Tempe last season, but both teams have seen enough turnover to make that fairly irrelevant. ASU is probably just the better squad, but like Oregon has the potential to struggle when its spread gets disrupted by a dominant front. Washington can win here. I’m not sure they will.

Heisman Watch

It’s still pretty much a two- or three-man race at this point. Off-field troubles are going to exclude at least two expected finalists, so the field isn’t particularly compelling. If the unbeatens are eliminated, we’ll see things get interesting.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is on another long interception-free streak and has been his usual stellar self all year. It would take a lot – like a couple more losses and poor play – to knock him out of the running.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Once again, Prescott is a very nice college player that has absolutely no hope of succeeding at the next level. As a Heisman candidate, though, he’s practically perfect. The QB of the top-ranked team is always a favorite.

Everett Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson acquitted himself well in the FSU loss. If the Fighting Irish run the table the rest of the way and move back into playoff contention, odds are Golson will end up in New York.

Trevone Boykin, QB,TCU

He’ll have his shot against Kansas State and West Virginia. Voters are probably a little reticent about Boykin at the moment given his spotty history, but he definitely has the ability to put together some great numbers.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Brian Kelly can complain about the offensive interference penalty that ended the FSU game all he wants. It doesn’t change the fact that it was absolutely the right call. “Pick” plays, which have become increasing common during the rise of the spread, are shady territory at best and quite often completely illegal. The degree to which receivers turn to actually look for a pass is tantamount to the success of the play; it has to at least appear that the WR’s are running routes.

That wasn’t the case at all on the overturned touchdown. Two Notre Dame receivers clearly blocked defenders out of the play before the ball was thrown. That’s the definition of offensive pass interference. Kelly has come out with two bizarre statements on the call, saying that officials “changed their mind” about the player who committed the penalty and that the Irish “ran the same play earlier” and the officials didn’t call it. It doesn’t matter which player was flagged – they were both committing the same infraction. Additionally, the idea that because the team cheated before to score, it should allowed to do so again is ludicrous. Kelly should be happy it was only called once.

Baylor’s flop on the road at West Virginia wasn’t exactly unprecedented. The Bears had a similar performance to end an undefeated season last year at Oklahoma State. What was surprising was how much better the Mountaineers looked. WVU outgained Baylor 456-318, held the Bears to a paltry 95 yards rushing on 42 carries and actually lost the turnover battle 3-0. To still win by double-digits implies some pretty impressive domination on both sides of the ball. As a bonus, the two teams combined for 32 penalties for an outrageous 353 yards, including a Big 12-record 215 for Baylor.

Special recognition needs to be made for Missouri, which napalmed Florida at the Swamp 42-13 (in a game that was 42-0 in the third quarter). Mizzou scored on a kickoff return TD to start the game and a punt return TD, sack/fumble TD AND interception return TD in the third quarter. The Tigers should be happy. Such a feat probably won’t be duplicated for decades in Columbia. Will Muschamp should be looking for a new job. This has gotten out of hand.

Stanzi Watch

In either one or two weeks’ time, depending on how the weekly awards shake out, I’ll apply the multi-winner cutoff. Players will still be able to leap onto the semifinalist board, but I won’t waste space listing each of the one-time winners. This past week saw another great crop of Stanzi performances, including a remarkable five players (out of eight) who notched their second award of the season. Stunningly, none of them was our two leaders. Here are this week’s winners and the standings:

Chad Voytik, Pittsburgh

Opponent: Virginia Tech

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Kendal Thompson, Utah

Opponent: Oregon State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won* in double-OT

*Note: Thompson was benched after his second turnover and thus doesn’t really fit the Stanzi criteria… but he was bad enough I think he should get one anyway

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: Tulane

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Clint Trickett, West Virginia

Opponent: Baylor

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 14

C.J. Brown, Maryland

Opponent: Iowa

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Brett Hundley, UCLA

Opponent: Cal

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

Davis Webb, Texas Tech

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 13

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss

Opponent: North Texas

Performance: Two INT, won by 10

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

Justin Holman, UCF: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Connor Halliday, Washington State: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Reggie Bonnafon, Louisville: 1

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, Cal: 1

Bryce Petty, Baylor: 1

Chad Voytik, Pittsburgh: 1

Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Clint Trickett, West Virginia: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 1

Brian Burell, Fresno State: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Kendal Thompson, Utah: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

That’s 10 multi-Stanzi guys! 10! Through eight weeks of action! I can’t imagine how this could possibly get any more entertaining – which is why it will, of course. We’re starting to hit attrition season, when teams’ depth exposes who they really are. Should be fun.

The BCS was human after all

National Overview

It’s a little-known fact that Socrates was referring to college football when he said true wisdom comes from admitting one knows nothing. After Week 7 a mere six unbeatens remain: Florida State, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Baylor, Marshall and… Notre Dame. It’s unlikely the four playoff contestants will come exclusively from this group, because four of the six play each other and Marshall won’t have the necessary strength of schedule. Heck, Baylor might not. So what now?

MSU should be the nation’s top team after knocking off LSU, Texas A&M and Auburn in consecutive weeks. Yes, LSU is now unranked and A&M should be, but that’s still a monstrous group to face in less than a month’s time. Florida State and Ole Miss are, in some order, the next teams in line. Things would be more clear had Texas A&M not looked so bad throughout SEC play. That’s not really fair to the Rebels, who had the misfortune of simply playing the Aggies a week later than the Bulldogs, but such is the unforgiving world of college football. The Seminoles have mostly sleepwalked through a garbage ACC schedule and finally get a chance for a big statement against Notre Dame this week.

The Fighting Irish had yet another close call with a bad North Carolina squad but once again survived to keep their playoff hopes alive. Without a conference affiliation and thus no chance for a 13^th game before the postseason, Notre Dame will likely need to go undefeated to make the final four. That can definitely happen, as long as the Irish beat FSU this week. I’m skeptical of that outcome considering the game is in Tallahassee. However, if there’s one thing Notre Dame is it’s opportunistic, and the ‘Noles have clearly taken a step back this year with their sloppy play. Should be a good game.

It seems official that Mississippi State is now the 2014 version of last year’s Auburn team: a fast, athletic group that excels at running the ball and controlling the clock. God help the Bulldogs if they ever have to throw to win a game, but after the Tigers rode that formula to a near-title last season all bets are off. MSU is now the prohibitive favorite to win the West, I guess. It’s still very hard to trust this team with the games still remaining – at Alabama and Ole Miss – and the potential of an upset/letdown in the SEC Championship.

Baylor completed an epic comeback against TCU to stay unbeaten, though the Big 12 has always felt like a two-team league. Oklahoma lost to the Horned Frogs last week, but it still seems overwhelmingly likely the OU – Baylor game will decide the conference title (remember, the 10-team Big 12 is the only power league without a conference championship game). Good for Baylor, but the real test will come in a few weeks after both teams get a couple a weak tune-ups in the meantime.

The other big news from the weekend came from out west, where Oregon effectively ended the charade known as UCLA and USC knocked off an over-ranked Arizona squad to re-take control of the South Division, if only momentarily. The Ducks control their own destiny in the Pac-12 race, but more importantly actually looked like the old UO again. More on this in the Pac-12 section, where I’ll break down the only league more confusing than the SEC.

There’s a very exciting matchup Thursday night, when newly-ranked Utah meets Oregon State in Corvallis. A couple of good Big 12 contests kick off the weekend in Baylor – West Virginia and Kansas State – Oklahoma, while Texas A&M tries to save its season at Alabama. Oklahoma State and TCU complete the biggest week of the season for the Big 12, while Washington – Oregon and Stanford – Arizona State supply this week’s Pac-12 drama. Notre Dame and FSU play in primetime.

Playoff Poll

Once again, a shakeup. At this point I’m as confused anyone. The second and third tiers also see some movement, as we begin to question what we thought we knew about certain contenders.

College Football Playoff

1) Mississippi State vs. 4) Baylor

2) Florida State vs. 3) Ole Miss

MSU is a no brainer, even if I think the Bulldogs will drop one at some point. FSU gets the benefit of the doubt for a week, when the Notre Dame game should largely decide its fate. Ole Miss moves up one slot, while Baylor sneaks in over a group of other contenders.

Second Tier

Oregon

Michigan State

Oklahoma

Now the week-to-week movement becomes more pronounced. Oregon is back on the bubble, logically moving past Michigan State. Oklahoma didn’t look great against Texas, but that rivalry tends to be very close even when the teams are mismatched.

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Alabama

TCU

Notre Dame was in my third tier last week and shouldn’t move up after a close call against North Carolina. TCU is still in the Big 12 mix after the heartbreaking Baylor loss but will need to run the table from here on out. Alabama drops after an ugly win because the Crimson Tide haven’t beaten anyone.

Pac-12 Report

The death knell has nearly sounded for Washington State (though hopefully not for head coach Mike Leach’s time in Pullman). If the opening loss to Rutgers didn’t raise a red flag, the succeeding one to Nevada certainly did and it’s pretty much been downhill from there. Save for a great defensive effort and fourth-quarter comeback against Utah, the Cougars have simply not improved enough in the third year of the Leach era to contend in the Pac-12. Thursday saw WSU fall to 2-5 at Stanford in a depressingly predictable contest, with the Cardinal outgaining the Cougs by more than 200 yards and allowing a mere five of 19 third-down conversions.

From a basic schematic perspective, WSU’s struggles with Stanford clearly stem from Leach’s Air Raid system, which, despite its many strengths, is particularly ill-equipped to beat the Cardinal. The rigidity of the Air Raid, such as its insistence on four-receiver sets and near-refusal to run the ball, can work well against many opponents. But Stanford’s dominant front, populated with pass-rushers capable of quickly beating their blockers one-on-one, makes everything much more difficult for the Air Raid. Other spread teams like Oregon (even in losses to the Cardinal) have a great deal more flexibility when the primary offensive focus isn’t working, whereas the Cougars more or less have to try to pass their way out of any problems. The result sometimes isn’t pretty.

Washington – Cal was notable for being the first time all season we’ve seen either team play as expected. UW finally looked like the defensive force it was supposed to be, while the Bears actually looked overmatched for once. The Huskies built a giant lead, capitalized on Cal’s mistakes and bounced back nicely after the bumbling Stanford loss (and bye). We’ve gotten used to seeing the Bears look competent on the field this year, but this could be a potential turning point. The remaining six games are brutal: UCLA, Oregon, at Oregon State, at USC, Stanford and BYU. If only Cal had beaten Arizona! Two more wins to get to bowl eligibility seems like a lot to ask for from that schedule.

Oregon also rebounded nicely from a disappointing loss to throttle UCLA in Pasadena. I’ve been calling for it for a while and I think the national media is finally catching on – UCLA isn’t very good. In theory, there’s loads of talent on the Bruins’ roster, but you wouldn’t know that watching this team. UO smacked UCLA around for three quarters before the backups allowed the final score to look respectable, but make no mistake, this was a beatdown. It bodes well for the Ducks that getting one lineman – left tackle Jake Fisher – back from injury made this much of a difference, but the Bruins are in a world of trouble. My prediction from August that this squad was all hype seems to be coming true.

The last game of the week was Arizona’s upset loss to USC, if you can really call it that. Reactionary rankings happen all the time, but ‘Zona moving from unranked to 10^th in the last poll was especially egregious. Look, the Wildcats are a good team. They played well against Oregon. But that was the first time all year UA had gotten a win of any quality and it came against a team that not only played poorly but was also down FOUR offensive linemen. Simply put, the Wildcats are not great. USC is flat-out better, despite being coached by Steve Sarkisian. The Trojans have the inside track to the title game again, because Arizona State (which holds the tiebreaker over SC) faces a murderer’s row the final seven games.*

*You thought Cal’s slate was nasty? How about Stanford, at Washington, Utah, Notre Dame, at Oregon State, Washington State and at Arizona? Yikes.

So, how about that Utah – Oregon State matchup? This is a very interesting contest that should make for great TV. I like Utah, which should be 5-0 and leading the South. The Utes appear to finally be ready to play for real in the Pac-12. But I also like OSU, a team that isn’t getting nearly enough credit going into this week. Reser Stadium is not an easy place to play and the Beavers defense has been impressively stout so far this year. I very much doubt OSU quarterback Sean Mannion is going to play as badly as he did at USC and the week off could only help the Beavs, a team that has seen a fair amount of injuries already. Moreover, how much do we know about Utes QB Kendal Thompson? He played fantastic against UCLA, taking over for the ineffective Travis Wilson, but that was the first extensive game action of his career. Oregon State could easily win this game.

UCLA is also on upset alert (although is it really an upset at this point?) at Cal. The Bears, as I said previously, badly need to win to keep the dream of a bowl game alive. They could find some traction against the wounded Bruins. To be clear, UCLA is the far more talented side and should win handily. The Bruins have the defensive athleticism to hem in the “Bear Raid” and the offensive firepower to make short work of the talent-strapped Bears D. Strange things can happen in this series, though. The teams have traded home blowouts the past four seasons despite Cal not being all that good… and UCLA won last year in Pasadena.

Colorado at USC is the only conference game this weekend that figures to be a complete dud, as CU – though much improved from the last two seasons – simply doesn’t have the horses (or Buffaloes, I guess) to keep up with SC. I don’t have a lot of faith in the coaching in L.A., but that shouldn’t matter too much against the talented, albeit thin, Trojans. Look for USC to revive the up-tempo attack it showed early in the year. It worked well against inferior competition before, so why not now? The Buffs will need a big game from QB Sefo Liufau to stay competitive and that still might not be enough.

Washington and Oregon renew their contentious rivalry in Eugene, though to be honest the rivalry could use some spicing up. UO has been quiet in victory, UW quiet in defeat these past ten years. As an Oregon fan I certainly don’t want to see anything but a big Ducks victory, sure. But nastiness has given way to respect (at least between the players) during this decade-long streak. The Huskies have the front seven capable of slowing Oregon’s offense to a crawl, which will be crucial because I don’t think the offense can win it alone. UW isn’t dynamic enough to win a shootout, so it will be up to the defense – particularly the line – to ground the Ducks and turn the game into a slugfest. Oregon should win… but the last time this team was a three-touchdown favorite at home, things didn’t go as planned.

The nightcap is Stanford at Arizona State, a matchup the Cardinal dominated in two meetings last year. ASU’s explosive but small offense had no answer for the monstrous Cardinal front, which forced the Sun Devils into short gains and miscues time and time again. The teams aren’t exactly the same this year. Stanford’s offense has, if anything, gotten worse. The same is true for the ASU D. However, in the end I expect this contest to end in similar fashion as in 2013 – with the Cardinal grinding things out, bleeding the clock and containing the Sun Devils’ big-play ability. Kevin Hogan not playing like garbage at QB would help.

Heisman Watch

The Heisman list is usually crowded at this point in the season. Not so this year. Surprisingly, upsets and off-field incidents have sapped the field of several contenders. FSU QB Jameis Winston is assuredly out. Georgia running back Todd Gurley might be suspended for the year. Baylor QB Bryce Petty weathered an early injury and has to play catch-up. Right now, these are the only guys worthy of consideration.

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

Mariota is almost certainly the best player in the country and proves it every time he doesn’t have to play with three backup offensive linemen.

Dak Prescott, QB, Mississippi State

Prescott isn’t nearly the QB Mariota is, but he’s the type of gritty runner-passer who often garners Heisman buzz – especially on an undefeated team.

Evertt Golson, QB, Notre Dame

Golson has been inconsistent lately but was much improved at the start of the season and voters would love to see another winner from Notre Dame.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It’s time to re-evaluate the SEC West. Before the year started it looked like a three-team race between perennial heavyweights Alabama, LSU and Auburn, with Ole Miss as a potential dark horse. Two weeks into the season, Texas A&M had thrown its hat into the ring as well, creating a five-team minefield. When Mississippi State upset LSU in Week 5, it appeared nearly the entire division was playoff-worthy (and it’s not as if Arkansas is some patsy, either).

Now? The picture is somewhat less rosy. LSU has proved to be a pretender, with whispers that this is the worst Tigers defense under Les Miles. The same is true of Texas A&M, which got throttled in back-to-back weeks by the Mississippi schools. Ole Miss and MSU have been great, but Alabama and Auburn have been surprisingly pedestrian in many ways. Auburn should have lost to Kansas State and got beat by the first really good team it played, while Alabama… well, look at the Crimson Tide’s schedule and tell me exactly why this team has earned a top-ten poll spot.

The problem has been the domino effect, which has reared its head in several seasons of late. It all began this year with South Carolina, which has proved to be a mediocre squad. But in the preseason, the Gamecocks were ninth, which made Texas A&M’s blowout of SC on opening day highly impressive. The Aggies rode that “big” win to a No. 6 national ranking before getting exposed by the Mississippi schools. Mississippi State, in particular, benefitted from knocking off a “powerhouse” in A&M. Now, despite losing back-to-back games in decisive fashion, the Aggies are still ranked, because the teams that beat them are so good. What was a major contributing factor to Ole Miss and MSU being highly ranked? Beating A&M. There’s a problem here…

That’s not to say the SEC West isn’t a very tough division. It is. But despite the circuitous logic of the polls, it also clearly isn’t quite as dominant as September seemed to indicate. This is important to remember heading forward as the playoff committee begins to hash out the teams it thinks should get priority. Unless a very specific set of circumstances unfold, there’s no way a single division should get two teams into the playoff. That’s what the regular season of college football has always been about – weeding out teams in “one-game playoff” scenarios. The danger of moving to a true playoff has always been the potential of cheapening what is routinely called the greatest regular season in sports. The committee needs to ensure this doesn’t happen.

Speaking of the polls, well, even in the twilight of the BCS they’re proving just how fallible human voters are. This week, both the media and coaches’ polls have Michigan State above Oregon and Oklahoma over TCU. How does this pass the most basic logic test? All four teams have exactly one loss. Oregon beat Michigan State and TCU beat Oklahoma. On what planet does it make sense to have the Spartans and Sooners ranked ahead of the Ducks and Horned Frogs? For all the frustration with the BCS computers, it’s sobering to see that it was the human element that skewed the process all along.

Stanzi Watch

A three-time winner? Everett Golson may have this thing wrapped up before Halloween. Last season we didn’t get a single player with more than a pair of weekly Stanzis. Golson just notched his third in six games and there are already more two-time winners than all of last year. More proof that 2014 is turning into 2007, Part II. Here are this week’s winners and the updated standings.

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: BYU

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won in overtime

Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Opponent: North Carolina

Performance: One INT (for TD), two FUM, won by seven

Bryce Petty, Baylor

Opponent: TCU

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by three

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Opponent: Auburn

Performance: Two INT, won by 15

Daxx Garman, Oklahoma State

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston

Opponent: Memphis

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 2

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Blake Decker, UNLV: 1

Nick Arbuckle, Georgia State:1

Justin Holman, UCF: 1

Sean Maguire, Florida State: 1

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Conner Halliday, WSU: 1

Tanner Lee, Tulane:1

Trevone, Boykin, TCU: 1

Reggie Bannafon, Louisville: 1

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Jared Goff, California: 1

Bryce Petty, Baylor: 1

Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1

Garrett Grayson, Colorado State: 1

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 1

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Wes Lunt, Illinois: 1

Hutson Mason, Georgia: 1

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati: 1

Sefo Liufau, Colorado: 1

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 1

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 1

Brian Burrell, Fresno State: 1

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 1

Angel Santiago, Army: 1

Grayson Lambert, Virginia: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

The Stanzi list will need to be cut soon, to make room for those serious about winning. There will be no one-time winners here, no sir! My money is on Golson, but that's the fun thing about this game: you never know until the final whistle blows.