Back to school

Another eventful offseason is over, complete with the requisite player scandals, coach scandals and, new this year, NCAA scandals! The O’Bannon case is over, and… it doesn’t look good for collegiate athletics’ governing body. Although some of the details of the ruling (such as the $5,000-per-year figure) are strange and/or arbitrary, the case still feels like the beginning of the end for college football as we know it. Considering the massive changes the sport has already seen in the past decade, that’s a powerful statement, but it’s true. The so-called “Power Five” conferences, seemingly on the verge of splitting off into a fourth division, have momentarily tabled that talk pending the results of multiple lawsuits like the O’Bannon case and the Northwestern union decision (which also went badly for the NCAA).

Programs are now allowed to cover the “full cost” of being a student-athlete, which largely means more food but includes opening the door for actual compensation, also known as the dreaded pay-for-play. This naturally widens the gap between what were previously considered the “automatic qualifying” or BCS schools and the non-AQ’s, or mid-majors. Couple that with the advent of a College Football Playoff ™ (finally!) that promises to emphasize quality wins and schedule strength and we’ve got a system more stacked in favor of the haves than it’s ever been.

Or do we? During the BCS’ reign of terror, exactly zero mid-majors played for a national championship and few ever came close. The last mid-major to be awarded a national title was BYU in 1984 and that championship is viewed with heavy skepticism to this day. Going back 20 years to the 1995 season (the first year of the Bowl Alliance, the BCS' doomed predecessor), there were 66 schools in the six power conferences (the Southwest Conference and Big 8 would later merge into the Big 12). Today there are 64 teams in the Power Five leagues.* Not that much has really changed. The traditional powers still control the sport. Notre Dame is still given preferential treatment for some inane reason. And the band(s) play on.

*For the record, the power leagues lost Temple, Houston, SMU and Rice and gained Louisville and Utah.

True, some of the top teams this year hail from slightly less hallowed pasts (Oregon, Michigan State) than their powerhouse brethren, but for the most part the programs that have risen up in recent years have done so in gradual, organic fashion. Baylor didn’t go from doormat to the Fiesta Bowl in a season. Likewise, some of the powerhouse programs of old looking at hard times (Michigan, Tennessee) have slid slowly and might only need a new coach or star player to deliver the shot in the arm that returns them to relevance.

Today I’ll cover the potential national champions in two groups. The first contains the absolute locks to at least be in the running for one of the four playoff spots. The second is fringe candidates that will need more help or breaks to reach those heights. These groups are small, because there simply aren't that many teams that have a realistic chance at winning it all. A lot has to go right. Without further ado:

Group A

Florida State

There’s a reason the defending champs are number one on any sane person’s list. Heisman winner Jameis Winston returns after throwing for 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns as a freshman. Four-fifths of the outstanding 2013 O-line is back. The schedule is, once again, very ACC-like. An opening-weekend date with Oklahoma State in Arlington shouldn’t prove too taxing and after that it’s tough to find places the Seminoles might stumble. Rivals Clemson and Florida both have to come to Tallahassee, so the only potential trap is at Miami (FL). I doubt the Hurricanes will have enough to seriously challenge this team.

There are some personnel losses that will have to be overcome. Leading rusher Devonta Freeman and receivers Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw are gone, along with a decent amount of what was one of the nation’s best defenses last year. However, the ‘Noles actually return more defensive starters now (six) than they did in 2013 (four), so things will probably work out just fine. At this point I also have a lot of confidence in head coach Jimbo Fisher, who has righted the ship since taking over for Bobby Bowden in 2010, going 45-10 in four seasons. FSU is primed for another title run.

Alabama

And they’re back. But for one of the all-time most ridiculous plays in football history, ‘Bama might be celebrating a third straight title. Instead, Crimson Tide fans have had to worry all offseason about the identity of the next starting quarterback and how the defense will replace all-stars like LB C.J. Mosley and safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix. The rest of the college football world won’t waste any time (or tears) on the plight of poor, poor Alabama. With the elite recruits still rolling in, it’s safe to say this team won’t have much trouble finding adequate replacements for its departed heroes.

Nick Saban knows defenses. In the past six years, only once have the Tide allowed more than two touchdowns a game. I expect that to continue, regardless of which four- and five-star recruits the team chooses to throw out there. It’s entirely possible it doesn’t matter who ‘Bama plays at QB, though the addition of the reviled Lane Kiffin as offensive coordinator provides for some definite intrigue. Everyone knows the drill in Tuscaloosa at this point, though. Mash the ball with talented backs like T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake. Play great defense and avoid mistakes. Win titles. There’s no reason to think Alabama won’t be right back in the mix this year.

Oklahoma

The Sooners return nine starters from the Big 12’s best defense. That’s generally a backhanded compliment given the level of defense played in that conference, but OU has some serious playmakers lining up in the back seven. LB's Frank Shannon and Dom Alexander are tackling machines that should help this team return to the kind of defensive prowess it displayed in the early 2000’s. Offensively the Sooners lost a lot of skill position players, but the transition should eased by a strong line that will protect semi-new QB Trevor Knight well.

There’s less margin for error for OU because the Big 12 no longer plays a conference title game, but the two other top contenders for league supremacy have to either come to Norman (Baylor) or meet the Sooners on a neutral field (Texas). Only Texas Tech poses any threat on the road and the non-conference schedule is breezy. Late last season this team seemed to rediscover its edge after posting back-to-back uninspired 10-3 campaigns. If OU plays in 2014 like it did against ‘Bama in the Sugar Bowl, look out.

Oregon

Interestingly enough, I think the playoff helps Oregon more than any other top contender. Were the BCS still in place, I’d be skeptical of the Ducks’ chances to land a title game berth. With four spots available this year, there’s room for UO to make what is becoming a customary late-season stumble and still play for a championship, especially if there’s a Pac-12 title on the resume. The defensive front has been bolstered, so there’s no excuse for repeats of the maulings seen in the Stanford and Arizona games last year.

On offense the key issue is receiver play, but like Oklahoma, the Ducks can lean on their talented line for support (and it’s worth noting that Oregon is far superior at both QB and running back). The schedule is nasty, though that may turn out to be beneficial; because of the Pac-12’s strength, even an early loss to Michigan State wouldn’t eliminate the Ducks from playoff consideration. Once again UO’s fate will come down to line play, but in any case this squad will certainly have its chances.

Michigan State

The Spartans make this list almost by default after Ohio State got Braxton Miller-ed out of championship contention (although I would have included them regardless). Michigan State is now the overwhelming favorite to win the Big Ten, hosting a hobbled OSU squad and rival Michigan AND missing the two best teams from the newly christened West Division in Wisconsin and Iowa. Three of the four conference road games are laughable (Purdue, Indiana, Maryland). The only real challenge is at Oregon in Week Two.

The question already being asked is, “Should MSU make the playoff if the Spartans lose to the Ducks but otherwise run the table?” It’s complicated. On the basis of that resume – 12-1 through a resoundingly awful Big Ten – the answer is no. However, this is in fact a very talented team, one that beat a pair of top-five squads to end last season (Ohio State, Stanford). I believe Michigan State should get the benefit of the doubt regardless of the outcome in Eugene. The Spartans could very well just win that game, though.

Group B

UCLA

The Bruins are right on the cusp. They’re definitely a trendy pick, as seen by the way they’ve gone from being labeled a “Pac-12 title candidate” to a “darkhorse playoff team” to “national championship contenders!” in the span of about a month. There’s a lot to like, with 17 returning starters and a favorable schedule that sees both Oregon and Stanford make the trip to Pasadena. Myles Jack might be the best two-way player in the country.

Brett Hundley, though. Everything rests on him. The UCLA QB has been getting a ton of Heisman and NFL buzz and at this point I have to say it’s undeserved. The fact of the matter is that to this point in his career Hundley is simply not a great passer. UCLA hasn't won a single game against a great opponent with Hundley behind center and has been outclassed by every elite team it has faced in that time. Perhaps he can make a leap to superstardom, but I’ll believe when I see it.

Baylor

The receivers are deadly. QB Bryce Petty could make a run at the Heisman. There’s a pretty new stadium and the Bears will be defending their first-ever Big 12 title. Even with a lot of turnover on the O-line, it’s hard not to see the nation’s top-scoring offense in 2013 picking up right where it left off. The schedule isn’t easy, but in the Big 12 there aren’t many gimmes anyway. Baylor should probably start 8-0 before a showdown with Oklahoma.

That’s it for the good news. The bad news is that it’s hard to see the ground game being as good this season, meaning the Bears will have to lean more heavily on the passing attack. Some of the Big 12 will be out for revenge after getting blown out last season. And the defense, ever an issue at (comparatively) talent-thin Baylor, loses seven starters from a unit that already ranked in the middle of the conference in 2013. The Bears could still get to the playoff, but a lot has to go right.

Auburn

From a talent standpoint Auburn isn’t lacking. Everyone knew this program’s 3-9 mark in 2012 was more reflective of the team quitting on former coach Gene Chizik than of a sudden dearth of good players. This is a high-profile SEC school, after all. The top four pass-catchers from 2013 return, along with four-fifths of the offensive line. Nick Marshall went from “awful” to “average” as a passer as last season progressed, so this team overall looks to be in good shape. But…

Come on. There’s just no way a team can have everything go right for not just the second season in a row, but the third time in five years. Good though Auburn was last year, the Tigers had absolutely no business beating Washington State. Or Texas A&M. Or Georgia. Or Alabama. There has to be a regression to the mean of good fortune, even for a coach as good as Gus Malzahn. Auburn is good, but I can’t imagine it having the same kind of season.

South Carolina

The Gamecocks are a bit of an outside shot, but from a certain perspective I’d say they’re due some breaks (certainly more so than Auburn). Steve Spurrier has been in Columbia a decade and SC has only played in a single SEC title game (losing 56-17 to Auburn in 2010). The SEC is tough, but this program has improved tremendously in recent years and should have had slightly more success (even counting the three straight 11-win seasons). Something always seems to go wrong at the wrong time for this team.

RB Mike Davis is a stud and returning WR’s Damiere Byrd and Shaq Roland are proven playmakers. I like QB Dylan Thompson, who has played well in relief in years past. There’s a lot of turnover defensively, but the Gamecocks have been solid on that side in recent seasons regardless of the amount of returning personnel. Even though this is no juggernaut, I still wouldn’t be shocked to see SC in the playoff.

Georgia

Speaking of teams deserving of some good karma, how about Georgia? The Bulldogs were absolutely decimated by injuries last season, when they were in prime position to challenge for the SEC and national title. But have no fear – despite the loss of all-time UGA great Aaron Murray, this squad has plenty left over. Senior Hutson Mason takes over for Murray at QB and with the fierce RB duo of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall, the offense will be ready to roll again.

Defensively the Bulldogs lose S Josh Harvey-Clemons but otherwise look loaded. It’s the schedule, though, that should really help. Georgia gets a bye before the Week Three trip to South Carolina, then doesn’t play another tough road game the rest of the year. What’s more, UGA misses ‘Bama and LSU from the West and gets its final three opponents at home. Everything seems to set up very nicely.

LSU

It’s hard to really know what to think about the Tigers. They lose QB Zach Mettenberger along with bruising RB Jeremy Hill and the leading returning receiver had seven catches last season. I’ve never been particularly high on the strategic acumen of coach Les Miles, and LSU seems to be one of those elite programs that, for whatever reason, can never consistently identify above-average skill-position players.

This is what I know about the Tigers, though: they will play outrageously good defense (seven returning starters). They will commit to running the ball, sometimes to the point of absurdity. And they will win games. This is an extremely talented O-line and there’s a freshman RB named Leonard Fournette who has been getting Heisman buzz despite having never played a down. LSU can parlay that into a playoff berth with the right amount of luck.

Once again, it’s a small group. It’s always possible the next champion could come from somewhere else, especially now that the playoff era has begun. But history has shown the pool of true contenders is generally limited to two or three teams per conference (the high number of SEC schools present here notwithstanding). With the decline of the Big Ten, the number has shrunk even further. The conference rundowns will be coming tomorrow.