Yesterday I gave my picks for the most likely playoff entrants. Today, it's the conference races. Realignment may have settled down the fast-and-loose way college football played with history and tradition (and my heart), but that doesn't mean there isn't a whole lot of intrigue in several leagues. Time will tell, but it's possible the playoff era just might increase the amount of suspense the sport sees.
Conference Outlook
AAC
Projected Champion: UCF
Even as conference realignment winds down the former Big
East remains in flux. That seems fitting given the pivotal role the American
played in moving us to the superconference era. This year sees Louisville join
2013 emigrants Pittsburgh and Syracuse in the ACC while Rutgers bolts for the
greener pastures of the Big Ten. In their place come East Carolina, Tulsa and
Tulane, essentially completing the AAC’s conversion into the new Conference USA. In all, the American now
boasts (?) nine former C-USA members and only two founding Big East schools
(Connecticut, Temple) – one of which (Temple) was kicked out in 2005 for football
incompetence before the league lowered its already-low standards.
Of course, reigning champion Central Florida returns, fresh
off an impressive runaway Fiesta Bowl win over Big 12 champion Baylor. Talented
enigma Cincinnati can build off a nine-win 2013 campaign in the second year of
the Tommy Tuberville regime. Houston, which nearly stole the AAC title in the
Cougars’ first (and only) season as a BCS school, has all the pieces available
to do so again, while ECU has some serious dark horse potential after jumping
from C-USA. Looking to the future, perennially decent Navy will join the league
in 2015, boosting the AAC to 12 members and allowing for conference
championship game.
However, that’s where the good news seems to end. The middle
and bottom thirds of the conference are as awful as usual, featuring just one
team (ECU) that won a bowl in 2013. Six of the eleven current AAC members
finished with sub-.500 records, and while UCF got that crucial Fiesta Bowl win,
the conference has officially been relegated to non-AQ status. That matters
less now that the BCS is finally dead, but the fact remains that the American’s
reputation has been in shambles for years. That’s a problem considering that the
playoff teams will be selected by a committee.
UCF has the inside track to repeat despite losing stars at
both quarterback and running back in Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson,
respectively. Nine defensive starters return for the Knights, including all
four starters from a secondary that allowed a mere 53 percent completion rate
in 2013. The schedule is a bit of an issue, as Central must travel to
contenders Houston and ECU (both on Thursday). However, the Knights do miss
Cincinnati and have what is almost certainly the most talented roster in the
conference.
Cincinnati is a legit contender thanks to the addition of
former top QB recruit Gunner Kiel and a favorable in-conference schedule that
has the Bearcats missing favorite UCF and hosting ECU and Houston. The
nonleague slate is nasty, though, featuring rival Miami (OH) and MAC power
Toledo as well as road trips to Ohio State and Miami (FL), all in a span of
five weeks. It’s possible Cincy could be worn out before conference play even
begins.
With 17 returning starters, Houston is in excellent shape to
challenge for the AAC crown. The Cougars were better than their 8-4 regular-season
record last year – all four losses came by a touchdown or less, and Houston held the lead in the second half in three of those contests. The schedule is
nice too; after a tricky early trip to BYU, the Cougars should be favored in
every game until the finale at Cincinnati.
I like ECU a lot as a sleeper in the American. Shane Carden
is as solid a QB as you’ll find in the country and this team won 10 games a
year ago. ECU’s willingness to play the big boys (a 55-31 win over North
Carolina last year) is also admirable. Ultimately the step up in competition
will probably prove to be a little much for the Pirates, but they should be a
factor in the conference race.
ACC
Projected Champion: Florida State over Virginia Tech
Unfortunately, there’s just not that much to say about the
ACC. Florida State is the overwhelming favorite, for good reason. The closest
conference game the Seminoles played in 2013 was a 14-point win at Boston
College. This team steamrolled the entire league and saved its best for the
biggest stages: a combined 200-35 margin against its four ranked ACC opponents.
The ‘Noles also play in the weaker division of the conference (the Atlantic,
for the record. No one can remember which teams go where in the ACC). It
wouldn’t be surprising at all to see FSU beat every team on the schedule again
by double digits.
The conference bids farewell to longtime member Maryland
this year, who eschewed decades of tradition and rivalries for the greener
pastures of the Big Ten. Louisville will replace the ingrate Terrapins, about
one year after it would have been pertinent to do so. I doubt the Cardinals
will fall off the map entirely, as the ACC isn’t really that strong, but it
will be difficult adjusting to an entire schedule full of new opponents.
Louisville is also in the Atlantic, so while there’s a guaranteed loss to FSU
the road overall is slightly easier.
But what of the enigmatic Coastal Division? It’s possible to
envision as many as five teams earning the right to get pummeled by the Seminoles.
I don’t think Georgia Tech (sigh) or Virginia have a real shot. Everybody else
has a case. Virginia Tech can’t be underwhelming for the third year in a row,
right? Miami (FL) looked great last year before RB Duke Johnson’s injury. Duke
(yes, Duke!) actually won the division, while North Carolina finished 6-1 down
the stretch and Pittsburgh returns eight offensive starters. Picking a winner
is rough.
I’ll eliminate Pitt first, as I feel the loss of first-round
draft pick DT Aaron Donald will be hard to disguise. Breaking in a new QB won’t be
easy either. Duke was a great feel-good story, but I find it unlikely that the
Blue Devils will repeat. They won too many close games and had so much go
right. Even with a lot of returning starters, Duke will fail to win the division
again.
North Carolina looked great in the second half of the season
after a disastrous start. Marquise Williams appears to be the answer at QB for
this team, but overall there needs to be more production from the rushing game.
The Tar Heels have been merely decent on both sides of the ball in recent
years. To take the next step one of the units has to improve.
Virginia Tech needs a bounce-back year and 2014 could
provide ample opportunity for that to happen. A very intriguing opportunity has
arisen in Week Two, as the Hokies travel to Colombus to face an Ohio State squad sans QB Braxton Miller. With a win, VT could easily jump out to a 5-0
start, a mark the Hokies haven’t reached since 2005. There’s some great
potential there.
Miami was on track to win the division last year before
losing Johnson against FSU. There’s a decent amount of guys back on both sides
of the ball, but a new (true freshman) QB is dicey. The Hurricanes play at
Virginia Tech and also have the misfortune of drawing Florida State from the
Atlantic (UNC gets Clemson, VT plays neither). Advantage, Hokies.
Big Ten
Projected Champion: Michigan State over Wisconsin
The Big Ten has changed. Long gone are the days when
Michigan ruled the roost, when passing the ball was sacrilegious, when the
number 10 actually meant something. The kings of the Midwest now number a
monstrous 14 and cover territory ranging from Lincoln, Nebraska in the west and
Piscataway, New Jersey in the East. It’s completely obvious why the conference
wanted Maryland and Rutgers – it certainly wasn’t for their on-field
performance – but I do miss the days when we at least pretended expansion was
about improving quality of play and the “student-athletes.”
The Big Ten, desperate for an “eastern bloc” to increase its
TV footprint, snagged the Terrapins and Scarlet Knights to match with original
Big Ten intruder Penn State in a blatant money grab. It was a sad yet shrewd decision. The addition of two more schools allowed the league to not only
expand its market share but also realign its divisions, forever ridding us of
the absurdly pompous “Leaders” and “Legends” in favor of a much simpler
geographic format. I’m fairly certain the Big Ten will deny the divisions were
ever named anything other than “East” and West” and has attempted to destroy
any evidence to the contrary.
Michigan St is now the only reasonable choice to win the
East, with Ohio State seemingly down for the count after losing Miller,
Michigan still in rebuilding mode and Penn State dealing with sanctions. The
Spartans are a fine pick to represent the conference, but it definitely hurts
to cut out the only other truly elite team in the league. Despite the loss of
several quality players from 2013’s transcendent defense, MSU returns
All-American defensive end Shilique Calhoun and should still be formidable.
As with the ACC, the true intrigue lies in the “other”
division, in this case meaning the West. It’s a two-team race masquerading as a
three-team race, which I can explain momentarily. Wisconsin is and should be
the favorite; the Badgers boast arguably the Big Ten’s best player in RB Melvin
Gordon and have an outstanding offensive line that will make him a Heisman
front-runner. The defense isn’t that great, but that’s fine. The offenses in
this league aren’t that great either. Wisconsin has the ability to get to and
win the conference championship.
Iowa is the Badgers’ biggest threat, which seems odd
considering the Hawkeyes haven’t won more than eight games in four years.
However, the schedule is very weak – I wouldn’t be surprised to see this team
start 8-0 – and Iowa was a deceptively good 8-5 last season (all five losses to
teams with at least nine wins). The Hawkeyes host Wisconsin and Nebraska in the
final two weeks.
Nebraska is the third team I referenced earlier. The
Cornhuskers return their top five tacklers and have some nice offensive pieces
in RB Ameer Abdullah and WR Kenny Bell. However, the O-line is a major question
mark, NU draws Michigan State and must play at Iowa and Wisconsin. Also, this
team has lost exactly four games every year since Bo Pelini took over as head
coach. That won’t get it done. In the end, I like Wisconsin to take the West.
Big 12
Projected Champion: Oklahoma
The Sooners are the consensus pick to win the conference,
which isn’t surprising. Until Charlie Strong can fix things up at Texas, OU has
a significant talent edge on the rest of its brethren. That doesn’t mean
Oklahoma State or even the Longhorns haven’t recruited well, but neither of
those programs can boast the floor the Sooners seem to have: twice in the past
decade, OU has bottomed out… at eight wins. Baylor and Kansas State have each
won a Big 12 title in the past two seasons, but let’s be real. No matter how
many banners those schools accrue, nobody will ever have them as favorites over
a team like Oklahoma.
The nice thing about the Big 12 is overall depth. OU may be
the favorite, but all of the aforementioned teams have a shot at the conference
crown as well. Defending champ Baylor is probably the best bet from the rest of
the field. Texas is a bit of a mystery in the first year post-Mack Brown. OSU
has won 10 games in three of the past four seasons. K-State just seems to keep
on defying the odds and prognosticators. Even Texas Tech, losers of five straight
after a 7-0 start, could have something to say about this race.
The main reason I like OU over Baylor is straight talent.
The second is circumstance. BU had pretty much everything go right in a dream
season in 2013. The offense outgained opponents by more than 250 yards per game
and the defense forced a positive margin of one full turnover per contest. Baylor
was incredible at home, upping those averages to plus-389(!) and plus-1.5, respectively.
Well, that’s a lot easier to do when playing eight home games. This year, the
Bears get only six. By the way, those numbers from 2013 dropped to plus-50 and plus-0.25
on the road. A decline is likely.
Texas is difficult to predict thanks to the regime change.
Some people in Austin have already declared Strong a “transitional” coach,
showing that there’s resistance to the idea of a “culture change” around the
program. I’ve always thought Strong was pretty good, but we’ll see this season.
It’s not as if the cupboard is exactly bare – this is Texas, for goodness’
sake. Even with the jettisoning of malcontents, a lot of starters return for a
team that finished tied for second in the conference last year. UT will be just
fine and might even contend for a Big 12 title.
Kansas State is one of the lesser contenders along with
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. The Wildcats should be better than they were in
2013’s rebuilding effort. The question is, how much better? Jake Waters now has
a full season of QB experience and an All-American WR in Tyler Lockett. The
defense loses a lot, but KSU always bolsters its immediate needs with JUCO
players. If there’s one thing head coach Bill Snyder knows how to do, it’s rebuild
on the fly. K-State shouldn’t win the Big 12 but will probably upset someone
along the way.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are in a similar position
heading into 2014. Both are known for offense in lieu of defense (although OSU
did lead the league in points allowed during conference play last season). Both
are too talented to overlook. And both are simply not quite good enough to
envision winning the Big 12. For the Cowboys it’s about proven depth, as just
eight starters return from 2013’s 10-win squad. The Red Raiders have to prove
they can break through the eight-win ceiling, something that hasn’t been done
in Lubbock since Mike Leach was in town.
Conference USA
Projected Champion: Marshall over UTSA
What is it with these conferences with one easy-to-figure
division and another impossible one? Marshall is the runaway favorite for a
reason; not only are the Thundering Herd easily the best team in the C-USA,
they play in the weaker side (East) of this 13-team monstrosity and get to host
the only two teams predicted to give them a real challenge (Middle Tennessee,
Florida Atlantic). But the West is a complete muddle. Texas-San Antonio could
be the favorite, or it could be North Texas… or Rice (which actually won the
conference last season).
Let’s start with realignment. The C-USA probably saw more
conference-shifting insanity than any other league in the past decade. Ever
wonder where the Big East/AAC kept getting all those new teams? Almost universally,
they came from here. Louisville, Cincinnati, Houston, ECU, Central and South
Florida, Tulsa, Tulane… that’s just some of the schools that have left the
C-USA since 2004. Last year the league added six new members to replace four
outgoing ones. This year it loses three more (ECU, Tulane and Tulsa. Curse you,
AAC! Curse you!) but adds Western Kentucky and transitioning FCS team Old
Dominion. Fellow FCS school North Carolina-Charlotte will join in 2015,
bringing the C-USA to a round 14 schools.
This looks bad. The conference is undoubtedly weaker than it
was few years back. But that’s what makes the title race so intriguing. Who
knows what will happen? At the very least, we should know about Marshall. QB
Rakeem Cato is back to break the Herd’s all-time passing records (an impressive
feat considering who else has played here). He gets back dominant WR Tommy
Shuler for an offense that should top 40 ppg for the thirds consecutive year. The
defense, comparatively, might be even better. Eight starters return, including
all the LB’s, three-quarters of the secondary and all-conference DT James
Rouse. The schedule is paper-soft. This team is going to roll.
Rice won the West and then upset Marshall in the title game
last year, so it seems appropriate to start there. The Owls probably won’t drop
as far as people might think, despite losing both QB Taylor McHargue and RB
Charles Ross. McHargue was the heart and soul of the offense, but he wasn’t
terribly efficient as a passer. There’s enough returning on defense for the
Owls to lean on that unit more until the offense finds its way.
North Texas was the only team that beat Rice in C-USA play
last year and probably should have won the West. The nine-win campaign was the
best since the program’s early-2000’s heyday, when the likes of Patrick Cobbs
and Jamario Thomas were churning through the Sun Belt. Unfortunately, the Mean
Green won’t repeat last year’s performance. There are personnel losses all over
both sides of the ball, so even though a huge drop-off is unlikely UNT’s lack of
experience will hurt.
UTSA is the safe choice to face Marshall, which is funny
considering the Roadrunners lost their best offensive player (QB Eric Soza) and
best defensive player (LB Steven Kurfehs). However, that’s it. UTSA otherwise
returns an astounding 20 starters, 10 on each side, to a team that played well
in its debut FBS season in 2013. The Roadrunners will be better than 7-5 this
year.
MAC
Projected Champion: Bowling Green over Northern Illinois
Last summer, in probably my all-time greatest prediction, I
said BGSU would upset heavy favorite NIU in the MAC Championship. I won’t try
to repeat the magic this year. I’m going with the champs to repeat rather than
reaching for some outlandish outcome in Detroit. The MAC race remains one of the
best in football every year and 2014 should be no different. Maybe it’s the
league’s adherence to a 13-team structure*, maybe it’s the title game’s
penchant for pure insanity, maybe it’s just something in the water in that
region, but the MAC is truly entertaining.
*Massachusetts will
leave the MAC in two years.
Northern Illinois is still a fine choice out of the West.
The Huskies return nine starters on offense and should be about as good
defensively despite losing a few key guys. The big issue is QB, where Jordan
Lynch departs after rushing for more than 4,000 yards in his career. Say what
you will about Lynch – and I did, the dude couldn’t pass at all – but he was
definitely an inspirational, put-the-team-on-my-back type. NIU will miss him.
Toledo would have a great shot at taking the division from
the Huskies on an even playing field. Alas, it is not. Thanks to the
awkwardness of cross-divisional scheduling, the Rockets must face Bowling Green
in the regular season for the second straight year while NIU misses the Falcons.
Toledo also has to play NIU on the road this season, just one week before BGSU.
I otherwise really like this team, but that one-two punch seems too difficult
to withstand.
Bowling Green has a fairly difficult schedule (Toledo and
Ball State from the West and at Wisconsin) and the loss of six defensive
starters is daunting. However, the Falcons should still be decent defensively
and the return of a quality QB in Matt Johnson should help considerably.
Despite some misgivings about the coaching change and follow-up to such a
magical 2013 season, I still favor BGSU in the East.
Ohio is the biggest challenge to Bowling Green’s divisional
supremacy despite massive losses on offense. QB Tyler Tettleton and RB Beau
Blankenship are gone and will be sorely missed. The defense, though, is
talented, and the offensive line might be good enough to buoy the unknowns on
that side. I’m not calling for the Bobcats to win the East, but they could
conceivably do so if things broke right.
Other, more longshot choices include Ball State from the
West and Akron from the East. Ball State did win 10 games last year and returns
RB Jahwan Edwards, but losing the top QB in program history (Keith Wenning) has
to hurt a little. Akron is a trendy pick for some reason, but I find it hard to
believe a team that won five games in 2013 will be able to rebound all the way
to a conference title.
Mountain West
Projected Champion: Boise State over Fresno State
This hurts. I desperately want to see my boy Chuckie Keeton
go out on top at Utah State. It could happen; when healthy, Utah State’s QB is
the best player in the MWC, one with the rare ability to swing a conference
race largely on his own. But it’s impossible to know exactly how recovered he
is from that nasty ACL/MCL tear last year. As such, I have to go with the more
likely candidates. Boise State is due for a rebound after a frustrating 8-5
campaign, while Fresno State returns more than you might think from 2013’s
11-win squad.
I’ll admit to assuming certain things about Boise State. That
the halcyon days were over. That the departure of head coach Chris Petersen
meant the end of the Broncos’ incredible run. That Boise was facing a talent
drain for the first time in nearly a decade. Well… take a look at the roster.
There’s quite a lot left. Eight starters, including the entire back seven,
return to the defense, which will be much-improved. Seven are back on offense,
including QB Grant Hedrick, who will be a step up from the departed Joe Southwick.
If RB Jay Ajayi (he of the 18 TD’s in 2013) can hold on to the ball, watch out.
This should be the best team in the conference.
Utah State is the other heavyweight in the Mountain
Division, but the Aggies face an uphill battle to get back to the title game. The
outstanding defenses of the past two seasons have largely been gutted, with
only the LB unit a sure standout this fall. Offensively USU returns two
backfield players lost to knee injuries – Keeton and RB Joe Hill – and is
probably in decent shape, though the line is dangerously inexperienced. There’s
still potential for greatness, it’s just that I’m afraid of pinning my hopes on
Keeton’s repaired ligaments.
It’s scary to expect so much from a team losing so many
stars, but Fresno State might still have what it takes to repeat as West (and
conference) champs. Leaning on defense this year instead of offense, the
Bulldogs bring back eight starters from a group that ranked third in the league
in 2013. I don’t expect any Alabama-esque performaces, but the D won’t be
awful. It will be tough to replace legends like QB Derek Carr and WR Davante
Adams, true. However, there are two solid signal-calling options in Brian
Burrell and Duke transfer Brandon Connette, so if the defense can take on a
little more responsibility Fresno could run this thing back.
The only real competition for the Bulldogs in the West is
San Diego State. Overall, I like the Aztecs’ roster, but the glaring issue is a
lack of stars. I don’t see any. QB Quinn Kaehler is decent. WR Ezell Ruffin is
decent. The defense? Decent. The one exception is on the defensive front, where
ends Sam Meredith and Dontrell Onuoha could combine with USC transfer DT Christian
Heyward to create a fierce D-line. Unfortunately, I’m not sure how good the
back eight (SDSU plays a three-man front) are. This team might be above average
at everything and great at nothing.
Pac-12
Projected Champion: Coming tomorrow
SEC
Projected Champion: Alabama over South Carolina
This is the most difficult conference race to predict in the
country. There are so many good teams and none that jump out as a clear
favorite. Even Alabama faces questions after graduating all-time leading passer
A.J. McCarron. In fact, a year after rolling out arguably the greatest QB crop the
SEC has ever seen, nine teams will start new signal-callers this season.
Defense is still the top objective around here, but it helps to have a guy
behind center who won’t fall on his face (or have it crushed into the turf by a
future NFL linebacker). In the West: ‘Bama, LSU, Auburn and Ole Miss. In the
East: South Carolina and Georgia, and possibly Florida. That’s half the
conference that could conceivably win it all. Let’s go to the slightly less
confusing division first.
I name Florida as a “maybe” because no one knows exactly
what we’ll get out of the Gators this year. UF overachieved getting to 11-2 in
2012 but wasn’t as awful as the 4-8 finish in 2013 suggests. Injuries
and a complete inability to move the ball turned a talented, somewhat raw squad
into a disaster area. The Gators will be back in some capacity this season (maybe
THIS is the year QB Jeff Driskel finally figures it out), but that could mean
anywhere from seven to ten wins. The schedule is rough, as UF draws ‘Bama and
LSU out of the West, so I’d go lower on that scale.
Georgia has everything in place for a karmic rebound after
last season’s injury-riddled nightmare… except the best passer in program
history. As good as RB’s Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall are – and they’re
REALLY, really good – it’s tough for me to pick this team to win the East with
an unproven QB. Hutson Mason looked decent in relief last year, but forgive me for
not getting overly excited about wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech. I just
don’t think SEC defenses will allow the Bulldogs to ride the “Gurshall” duo
with impunity.
In contrast, I’m a big fan of Dylan Thompson, the senior QB
from South Carolina who has seen a fair amount of action the past couple years
due to injuries ahead of him. Thompson needs to rein in his somewhat reckless playing
style at times, but he’s got a couple of talented receivers to throw to in Shaq
Roland and Damiere Byrd and a bruising RB in Mike Davis. The defense should be
at least adequate again and the Gamecocks get to host Georgia in a major
revenge game in Week Three. SC was the best team in the East last year and has
the best chance to win the division.
Alabama loses six defensive starters and arguably its best
QB ever, and the Crimson Tide are still the pick? I have to. I am physically
unable to go against the power of head coach Nick Saban. Does anyone think ‘Bama
won’t simply reload on defense? The Tide haven’t allowed more than 300 yards
per game in any season since 2007, Saban’s first. Want an even more ridiculous
stat? In every one of the past seven years, this team’s yards per carry has
increased. Even with RB T.J. Yeldon back, that feat will be tough to accomplish
again, but if anyone can do it I’m sure it will be the Tide. As I said
yesterday, the QB might not even matter.
I think LSU is the next-best team in the West, though some
of my optimism is based off reports of frosh RB Leonard Fournette’s apparent
supernatural ability. Now, the Tigers will also be starting a new QB as well,
but I feel better about their O-line than, say, Georgia’s. The defense, like
Alabama’s, has to replace some guys, but will surely be fine. This is LSU,
after all. The schedule isn’t too bad – at Auburn and Florida in consecutive
weeks to start October is rough, but the Tigers manhandled both those teams
last season – and Fournette might be MJ.
Auburn looks loaded offensively and should be more balanced,
provided QB Nick Marshall continues to grow and the team can adjust to life
after RB Tre Mason. However, I’m not convinced the defense, which gave up more
than 450 ypg in 2013, is for real. The Tigers also play one less home game and
must travel to Ole Miss, Georgia and Alabama – three teams that all feel Auburn
got lucky last year. It’s very possible this squad could be better in 2014 and
finish with a worse record simply by virtue of breaks going the other way.
Ole Miss is the true wild card here, which is why the Rebels
have gotten special billing. For two years the nation has marveled at head
coach Hugh Freeze’s recruiting classes and whispered, “Those guys are going to
be good soon.” Well, the time is now. Not only has the program been built up to
a near-elite level, other conditions have never been more favorable: the
offense is one of the few in the SEC to return a proven commodity at QB in Bo
Wallace; the defense gets nine starters back, and the schedule is very kind.
The Rebs miss the top four East teams and host Alabama and Auburn. …And yet I
still think ‘Bama is the smart pick from the West.
Sun Belt
Projected Champion: Louisiana-Lafayette*
*Louisiana-Lafayette
apparently wants to be known as just “Louisiana” now, but that’s confusing
given that Louisiana-Monroe also plays in this conference, so I’m sticking with
the traditional “ULL” and “ULM” monikers for now.
I’ll be honest: The Sun Belt is the conference I know the
least about. It’s the worst league in the country and the number one offender
when it comes to allowing marginal FCS schools a foot in the FBS door. But so
be it. One thing I do know is Broadway. As in Terrance Broadway, Louisiana’s
talented duel-threat QB. Broadway was the best player in the SBC last year,
when he led the Ragin’ Cajuns to their third consecutive nine-win season.
Broadway is back, and so is ULL. With eight returning starters to the league’s
best offense and nine to its second-stingiest D, it’s safe to call the Cajuns
the favorite and a strong contender for a fourth straight bowl appearance…
which would also be the program’s fourth ever. Here’s head coach Mark Hudspeth’s reaction upon seeing his guys in fall camp. This team is so hot right now.
The rest of the SBC can pretty easily be broken up into
three categories. The first is also-rans, consisting of nomads Idaho and New
Mexico State, FBS newcomers Appalachian State and Georgia Southern and
fledgling program Georgia State. Seeing any of those schools win more than four
games would be a surprise.
The second group is the mediocre middle, where Troy, ULM and
Texas State reside. None of these teams is awful, but it’s also hard to see any
of them break through into the top of the league. ULM is replacing the truly
excellent Kolton Browning, who led one of the great upsets of the new millennium
by nearly single-handedly taking down eighth-ranked Arkansas in Fayetteville in the 2012 opener. The Warhawks may never see a QB of his caliber again. Troy seemed
to have transformed into a perennial SBC contender a few years back but has
stumbled to a 14-22 record since 2011. It’s hard to trust the Trojans now.
Texas State is hardly a bad team, but it’s baffling to think of what possessed
this program to make the jump to FBS two seasons ago. The Bobcats were never
exactly an FCS powerhouse.
That leaves us with the cream of the crop, which in the Sun
Belt means ULL, always-dangerous Arkansas State and quickly-rising newcomer
South Alabama. Arky State has been the standard SBC teams are measured to in
the past several years, posting a 28-11 mark the past three seasons despite
changing head coaches three times. It happens again in 2014 as Blake Anderson
takes over, so expect the Red Wolves to once again be in the mix for the
conference crown. South Alabama has come a different route, starting football
just five years ago. The Jaguars moved into the SBC in 2011 and increased their
win total from two to six over the past year. With a ton of starters coming
back, this is a trendy sleeper pick. I’ll stick with Louisiana, though.
And that’s it for my exhausting conference previews. The
Pac-12 section comes tomorrow, as I simply have far too much to say about those
teams to include it here. In that vein, here’s the updated conference power
rankings for 2014, after the Big Ten and Pac-12 solidified their respective
positions during the 2013 season.
1) SEC
2) Pac-12
3) Big 12
4) ACC
5) Big Ten
6) Mountain West
7) American
8) MAC
9) Conference USA
10) Sun Belt
The West Coast preview arrives tomorrow. The season starts
Thursday (I refuse to count Wednesday’s Abilene Christian – Georgia State
game). Vamanos.
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