Welcome to the end of the BCS

I fared far better in the second bowl week thanks to a 5-1 New Year's Day record and several other strong days. Though my positive bowl prediction record has been clinched at 18-12 (as of this post), I'm not satisfied! The final three games are below. What a year it's been.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Vanderbilt (8-4) vs. Houston (8-4)

January 4, 10:00 a.m.

You wouldn’t think this was a matchup of two teams from AQ-conferences by looking at the players on the field, but surprise! To be fair, Vandy has traditionally struggled to compete in the rough SEC but has improved greatly in recent years. Houston, meanwhile, was a semi-powerhouse in its Southwest Conference days, but has been up-and-down since its banishment to mid-major status. I was impressed with what I saw of the Cougars this year; as usual, the team is explosive offensively and plays with that classic, freewheeling Texas style. However, as usual there’s danger when facing an SEC team. Though the days of the SEC boasting all the most elite defenses may be over, it’s hard to argue with the athletes from the region. It’s also tricky to trust a team like Houston that relies so heavily on forcing turnovers. I’ll take the less-flashy but ultimately safer Commodores in this one.

Watchability: 2. This game should not be played in January.

GoDaddy Bowl

Arkansas State (7-5) vs. Ball State (10-2)

January 5, 6:00 p.m.

There’s not much intrigue with this contest. Ball State not only achieved a better record than Arkansas State, the Cardinals did so in a much better conference. Improved though the Sun Belt might be, 7-5 isn’t going to impress anyone. The Red Wolves boast a fairly balanced run-pass attack, but it’s not particularly explosive. Ball State, on the other hand, could become the rare college offense that goes 4-1-1-1: a 4,000-yard passer, a 1,000-yard rusher and two 1,000-yard receivers. Quarterback Keith Wenning and running back Jahwan Edwards each need less than 100 yards, while WR’s Willie Snead and Jordan Williams have already both eclipsed the thousand-yard mark. All this is to say, the Cardinals are really good. Neither team plays much D (Ball State is slightly less mediocre), so the pick is easy.

Watchability: 3. Ball State’s offense is worth seeing.

Vizio BCS National Championship

Florida State (13-0) vs. Auburn (12-1)

January 6, 5:30 p.m.

It seems like an obvious choice, but I’ll look deeper to make sure I’m not prejudiced against Auburn. The Tigers do run the ball exceptionally well, especially the past six games, ending the season as the nation’s leading rushing team. Gus Malzahn has yet again put together a brilliant and innovative package of plays that maximizes his offenses’ strengths and minimizes its weaknesses. Auburn has dramatically improved since a shaky start to the season, when the Tigers should have lost to a mediocre Washington State team. However, despite those qualities, I still feel Auburn is overmatched in this game.

AU’s defense is merely average and has given up points to every quality offense the team has faced. Lazy writers have dubbed this a “team of destiny,” but that’s mythmaking of the worst kind. Anyone who has watched Auburn this season knows the absurd luck the Tigers have had, from the missed horsecollar penalty against Texas A&M to the tipped Hail Mary on fourth and a million to beat Georgia to the field goal return against Alabama. That kind of fortune simply can’t continue against another good opponent. And that’s exactly what Florida State is.

The Seminoles could go down as the most dominant team in the BCS era, which is really saying something. FSU leads the nation in points scored (53) and points allowed (10.7) per game and has not won a single game by fewer than 14 points. They boast the Heisman trophy winner in QB Jameis Winston, who has been the most consistently great player in all of football in 2013. The ‘Noles are loaded with as much, if not more, next-level talent as the Tigers and have been better this season utilizing it. Auburn’s anemic passing attack (107^th in the country) should not be enough of a threat to stop FSU from loading up on the run. After a month of preparation, I don’t see the Seminoles allowing a team to run wild on them.

After Florida State’s stunning blowout of Clemson I said FSU might be the best team in the country and deserved to be ranked first. Throughout the rest of the 2013 season the team has consistently proved that to be the case. There’s no way I can go against a group this dominant now. Florida State will win the BCS Championship.

Watchability: 5.

And that’s it. Another delightful year of college football has ended and this time, the BCS along with it. It’s been a long time – too long – coming. 2014 brings the new light of a rudimentary playoff and some real closure for fans for the first time. Onward and upward.