Bowls get heavy

I went an unfortunate 6-5 in the opening week, thanks to choke jobs by Minnesota, Bowling Green and Boise State. Of course, nothing could match the original Coug team, Washington State: leading 45-30 with less than five minutes to play, Wazzu managed to fumble twice, give up two touchdowns and a two-point conversion and lose on a field goal as time expired. Oh, Cougs. There's always next year. For me, there's another week for redemption before the title game, so on to the second week of bowls! All times are, as always, Pacific.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Rutgers (6-6) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

December 28, 9:00 a.m.

This is another matchup that, at least on paper, seems like a yawner. Notre Dame, for all its faults, won eight games against a tough schedule and looked like a BCS-conference team. Rutgers dropped a shootout to Fresno State to start the season, which was a portent of things to come: after winning four straight against average competition, the Scarlet Knights dropped five of seven to finish at .500 on the year. Even in the weak American Athletic Conference Rutgers couldn’t manage more than three wins. At times Notre Dame struggled to find an offensive identity, but the Fighting Irish still played reasonably good defense (against a much more difficult schedule). Rutgers is one of the few bowl teams giving up more points than it scores, which is never a good sign. Unless something crazy happens, I’ll take the Irish.

Watchability: 1. Rutgers is bad and Notre Dame doesn’t have any household names.

Belk Bowl

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

December 28, 12:20 p.m.

Cincinnati nearly stole the AAC’s BCS bid in the final weekend only to lose to rival Louisville and get relegated to the Belk Bowl. Things could be worse. The Bearcats could be North Carolina, which started a dreadful 1-5 before winning five straight and then almost knocking off Duke. UNC was one of 2013’s true enigmas, capable of blowing up on anyone but also strangely unable to get plays when necessary (at least for the first half of the season). Cincy was a bit more predictable; as a pretty solid – but not great – team, the Bearcats ran through most of the AAC with ease. I’m tempted to take the Tar Heels, given how much UNC seemed to improve over the back half of the year… but I just can’t, even with my laundry list of reservations about picking American teams. Cincy has just been so much more consistent.

Watchability: 2. Brendon Kay (Cincinnati) and Bryn Renner (UNC) are good QB’s, but that’s about it.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Miami (FL) (9-3) vs. Louisville (11-1)

December 28, 3:45 p.m.

To be clear: Louisville didn’t play half the schedule Miami did. If the Cardinals played in the ACC instead of the AAC, it’s unlikely they’d have just one loss. However, I’m still taking Louisville in this game. It’s potentially Teddy Bridgewater’s last collegiate game and the Cards are capable of playing at a higher level than Miami can reach. Of course, an even bigger reason to take Louisville is recent history. We all saw what happened to Miami when Duke Johnson went down. After the ‘Canes star RB blew out his knee the team lost three straight, only righting the ship against bad Virginia and Pitt squads. Louisville has looked disinterested at times this year against the softer parts of the schedule, but this is a very talented group that should win this game.

Watchability: 3. With Johnson it probably would have been higher.

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

Michigan (7-5) vs. Kansas State (7-5)

December 28, 7:15 p.m.

A very interesting matchup here between one of the best power-conference schools in history and one of the worst. More was expected out of both these squads this year, so hopefully they’ll be fighting like mad to avoid falling to an ugly 7-6. At least KSU had a winning record in conference this year. UM lost five of seven after a 5-0 start and repeatedly found ways to lose games despite playing a relatively average schedule (once again, this ain’t your father’s Big Ten). Kansas State rebounded from a 2-4 start to post a decent finish, though most of the wins were against mediocre competition. In the end I have to believe Michigan can turn this thing around enough to get a win; the Wolverines are just too talented to lose to this Wildcats team. Bill Snyder’s guys always play hard, but they should be outclassed by Big Blue’s offensive weapons.

Watchability: 3. Both teams should have been better than this.

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl

Middle Tennessee (8-4) vs. Navy (8-4)

December 30, 8:45 a.m.

I have high hopes for this contest. Middle Tennessee posted a very solid record, closing out with five straight (conference) wins, while Navy was two close losses away from being a top-15 team. Both schools run the ball well, though of course the Midshipmen’s option is the superior attack. The Blue Raiders have a nice run-pass balance on the year and went 6-2 in the decent Conference USA – impressive considering MTSU was playing in the Sun Belt a year ago. The defenses are both middling, so there’s no reason to think we’ll see any kind of slugfest. Given the difference in philosophies of the two offenses, a shootout might even be in order. I’m going to go slightly against my own preference and take Middle Tennessee; though there’s always question marks when playing an option team, I think the Blue Raiders’ balance will win the day.

Watchability: 3, but could jump to a 4 depending on how the defenses play.

  

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Ole Miss (7-5) vs. Georgia Tech (7-5)

December 30, 12:15 p.m.

It’s hard to know how this game will play out. One the one hand, Ole Miss didn’t really do much outside of the upset of LSU… but neither did Georgia Tech. At the end of the season the Rebels’ win over Texas looks good, but at the time UT was absolutely horrendous. The same applies to Tech’s blowout of Duke, which came before the Blue Devils went on their magic run. Everyone knows what to expect with the Yellow Jackets: you’re going to see the option and lots of it. Ole Miss runs a somewhat-up-tempo semi-spread that has nonetheless been pretty effective. The SEC has earned respect for its performance in bowl games and I think that has to apply here. With the athletes the Rebels have on the defensive side and a month to prepare, I don’t see Tech running wild on Ole Miss. It shouldn’t be a blowout, but I don’t trust the Yellow Jackets in the postseason.

Watchability: 3. It’s a decent matchup, but there aren’t any stars.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Oregon (10-2) vs. Texas (8-4)

December 30, 3:45 p.m.

With apologies to Mack Brown, the bizarre coaching situation at Texas will have little to do with the outcome of this game. It’s routine for commentators to posit that a coach on his way out will inspire the team, but that’s a completely unprovable concept. The simple truth is that Oregon is a better football team than Texas. The Ducks’ play will be what decides this game. If the team from the first two months of the season shows up, UT is going to get wiped off the map. When clicking, the Ducks have too many weapons offensively for Texas to contain and can force turnovers from a sometimes-shaky Longhorns attack. However, if Oregon’s players don’t want to be there – highly possible – and play the way they did in November, UT will control the clock and run the ball down UO’s throat for the win. It’s that simple. I’ll bet Oregon shows up and wins the game.

Watchability: 3. There’s potential for it to be higher, but you can’t make promises with these teams.

  

National University Holiday Bowl

Arizona State (10-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

December 30, 7:15 p.m.

This is a little tricky. On paper, ASU was the vastly better team in 2013 and should win. But I’ve seen “average” TTU teams go nuts in the postseason before, when opponents aren’t ready for the all-out passing barrage and get behind in a hurry. Throw in the fact that the Red Raiders will be playing for a lot of pride after losing five straight and this matchup gets more interesting. I’m not able to pull the trigger on a big upset for a couple of reasons, though. First, there’s the awful Texas Tech defense, which gives up more than 30 points a game. Then there’s the matter of balance. I don’t like the Red Raiders’ chances against a team capable of throwing nearly as well as they can AND adept at running the ball. ASU’s kryptonite is Stanford, and Tech ain’t Stanford.

Watchability: 4. As long as you like scoring.

  

AdvoCare V100 Bowl

Arizona (7-5) vs. Boston College (7-5)

December 31, 9:30 a.m.

Arizona and Boston College both love to run the ball and can’t throw, but they go about it in different ways. BC favors a more traditional straight-ahead attack, whereas ‘Zona spreads you out and read-options you to death. This is another tough matchup to pick. The Wildcats competed in a tougher conference and have by far the best win among the two schools (Oregon). However, neither team plays very good defense and I’m not sure either could survive a bad start that puts them in a hole. If the Eagles establish the run early, ‘Zona could be in trouble. In the end, I’ll take the Wildcats because it seems like a safer bet, but there’s no reason to think BC can’t win this game.

Watchability: 4. You don’t often see two RB’s like UA’s Ka’Deem Carey and BC’s Andre Williams.

  

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Virginia Tech (8-4) vs. UCLA (9-3)

December 31, 11:00 a.m.

Yet another dangerous game to pick. After UCLA’s bowl performance last season, can anyone really trust the Bruins? Yet there’s no doubt UCLA is a good team overall and is coming off a quality win over rival USC in the finale. Virginia Tech is an equally shaky option, ending the season with losses in three of the final five games, including a couple of truly embarrassing ones. It’s a pretty sharp clash of styles too, as the Hokies are (as always) strong on defense and middling offensively, much the opposite of the high-flying Bruins. In these games I almost always go with the better defensive side, but for every reservation I have about UCLA I have two for Tech. The Hokies were a shaky 8-4, barely pulling out several wins. Throw in the Pac-12’s superiority (we think) and I have to take UCLA.

Watchability: 3. The pace at which this game will be played is a complete mystery.

AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Rice (10-3) vs. Mississippi State (6-6)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

I hate that the Conference USA champion has to play a .500 SEC team that doesn’t deserve to be anywhere near a bowl. Unfortunately, MSU will probably win. Although the Owls score about a TD more per game, the offenses are almost exactly equal in yardage output. The Bulldogs throw while the Owls run, but the fact that those numbers are so similar despite MSU’s weak record (in a far superior league) doesn’t bode well for Rice. No one is going to argue Rice’s athletes are on the same level as a team from the SEC, even a mediocre one like MSU. I’ve seen Owls quarterback Taylor McHargue play and was not impressed; I predict the Bulldogs will use the layoff to devise schemes to fluster his running and stifle his average passing threat. I’m not sure if this qualifies as an upset, but there you go.

Watchability: 1. Even if they win, the Bulldogs are bad. Rice isn’t amazing either.

Chick-fil-A Bowl

Duke (10-3) vs. Texas A&M (8-4)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

You can see why this game got the prime-time slot on New Year’s Eve. The Blue Devils fielded their best team ever in 2013 and A&M, though a disappointment, is very exciting. Duke doesn’t do anything spectacular offensively (though receiver Jamison Crowder is a stud), so the assumption is that the Blue Devils must play great D. Not really; the team’s 24.7 points allowed per game rank just inside the top 50. Much has been made of the Aggies’ horrendous defense, but A&M has the offense to back it up, churning out more than 500 yards a game. I think Duke should be able to score fairly easily on aTm, but the Aggies will do the same. In a contest like this, the proven commodity is the safest bet. We know that against bad-to-average defenses, Johnny Manziel can score. In the A&M QB’s final college game, I think he goes out with a bang.

Watchability: 4. I expect scoring.

Taxslayer.com Gator Bowl

Nebraska (8-4) vs. Georgia (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

What a weird year for both these schools. The Cornhuskers and Bulldogs each enter the Gator Bowl at 8-4, but under very different circumstances. Both teams were expected to challenge for league titles in 2013 and fell short, Georgia because of injuries and Nebraska because of incompetence (although it’s worth noting the Huskers did lose QB Taylor Martinez for a large stretch). All four of UGA’s losses were either to quality teams or completely fluky (or both!). Nebraska did suffer losses to good teams in UCLA and Michigan State, but just failed to show up against Minnesota and Iowa. I would normally go against the team without an all-star QB (UGA), but given the bizarre coaching situation in Lincoln there’s no way I’m taking the Cornhuskers. I have zero confidence in Nebraska’s mental state.

Watchability: 3. It should have been so, so much higher. Curse you, injuries!

Heart of Dallas Bowl

UNLV (7-5) vs. North Texas (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

Were this game on another day it might actually deserve to be watched. UNLV has had a pretty successful season by the Rebels’ standards, while UNT is one of the hottest teams in the country, dropping just one game by a single score since the beginning of October. However, by trying to horn in on New Year’s Day, the Heart of Dallas Bowl is rightfully shamed to ESPNU. As for the game, UNLV has a pretty solid QB-RB-WR troika in Caleb Herring, Tim Cornett and Devante Davis, respectively. The problem is the defense. The Rebels give up 31.5 points per game (slightly more than they themselves average), while the Mean Green are in the top 10 in scoring defense at just 18.1. UNT can match UNLV point-for-point but plays far better defense, so the pick is obvious.

Watchability: 2. There’s some intrigue here, but among the rest of the New Year’s fare it’s not that impressive.

Outback Bowl

Iowa (8-4) vs. LSU (9-3)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

With Tigers’ QB Zach Mettenberger lost this matchup becomes a lot more interesting. Iowa quietly put together a nice year, going 8-4 with competitive losses to Northern Illinois and the three best teams in the Big Ten (Michigan State, Ohio State and Wisconsin). As usual, Kirk Ferentz has coached his guys to a solid defensive finish, but the revelation has been young Jake Rudock at QB. Of course, even in a “down” year LSU still managed a pretty good defense of its own and was scorching hot offensively until Mettenberger went down. There are obviously question marks about his replacement(s), but I think even with a new signal-caller LSU will win. The Tigers are more talented across the board and feature some serious next-level weapons Iowa simply can’t match, including a pair of 1,000-yard receivers in Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham as well as bruising RB Jeremy Hill.

Watchability: 3. The game should be closer with Mettenberger out.

Capital One Bowl

Wisconsin (9-3) vs. South Carolina (10-2)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

Look, I like Wisconsin. The Badgers got jobbed at ASU, played Ohio State close and are frighteningly dominant on the ground. But I think this squad is in for a rude awakening against Carolina. The Gamecocks have the ability to slow the power running attack Wisky so favors and are multiple enough on offense to give the Badgers serious problems. There are two weapons Wisconsin features above all: RB Melvin Gordon and WR Jared Abbrederis. I know it, you know it and SC knows it. The Gamecocks, meanwhile, have two playmakers at seemingly every position, including QB. If not for a fluky loss to Tennessee this team could be playing in the BCS Championship. I don’t see South Carolina allowing Wisconsin to just bowl them over (no pun intended).

Watchability: 5. I’m excited to see how this game unfolds.

Rose Bowl

Michigan State (12-1) vs. Stanford (11-2)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

Ah, the 100^th Rose Bowl… and the last Rose Bowl as we know it. When the playoff begins the oft-disrupted (in recent years) Pac-10/12 vs. Big Ten matchup will essentially be dead, so cherish this one final moment of innocence in college football. Michigan State has played the best defense in the country this season, and it isn’t particularly close; the Spartans lead the nation in yards allowed per game (248.2) and yards per play (3.94). Stanford is no slouch either, but even though the Cardinal rank in the top 15 they still give up nearly 100 yards a game and a full yard per play more. Both middling offenses will find it tough going against these stout D’s, so expect a repeat of last year’s Stanford – Wisconsin slugfest. This is kind of game Stanford usually wins, but MSU does the same thing. I bet against the Cardinal at my own peril, but MSU has just been so good this year defensively – without the characteristic lapses that plague Stanford. I’ll go with MSU.

Watchability: 5. Two elite defensive teams in the 100^th Rose Bowl, as it was meant to be.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

Central Florida vs. Baylor

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

I have more faith in UCF than most people and have championed the Knights all year. Central plays very good defense and has displayed a kind of plucky never-say-die mentality that wins games. However, even with that to fall back on the Knights are probably overmatched in this game. Baylor was the nation’s best offense statistically and achieved its record in a stronger conference, even though the AAC turned out better than was expected. If the Bears can score 47 points a game in the Big 12, it’s hard to imagine they won’t score against UCF. It’s not as if the Knights ended the year on a high note, either; three of the final four wins came by a total of ten points, and not against good competition. Baylor should cap off this dream season with a rousing offensive assault.

Watchability: 4. There should be scoring, but there’s some blowout potential.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma (10-2) vs. Alabama (11-1)

January 2, 5:30 p.m.

On paper this is about as easy a matchup to pick as exists all bowl season. Alabama was one fluke play from going undefeated and meeting Florida State in the national championship. Oklahoma was blown out by two Texas schools (Baylor and UT) and is only playing in the BCS because of proximity to the Sugar Bowl. The Sooners struggled to find offensive balance all year (indeed, until the Bedlam upset) and gave up far more yards and points than is acceptable given their talent level. The Crimson Tide, on the other hand, again featured one of the nation’s best defensive units. There’s some question about the ‘Bama O-line after it repeatedly struggled to dominate against quality competition, but OU hasn’t been good enough this year to take advantage of that – once again, on paper. Unless there’s a repeat of the Utah upset in 2008, Alabama should roll.

Watchability: 5. Two of the top programs in the country are involved, even if it should be lopsided.

AT&T Cotton Bowl

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Missouri (11-2)

January 3, 4:30 p.m.

An unusual matchup of two former Big 12 (and Big 8) bottom-feeders risen from the ashes. Okie State has become the league’s marquee program over the past five years, while Mizzou – left for dead upon entering the SEC – simply spun the prognosticators’ predictions on their heads with one of the finest seasons in school history. 2013 was even more impressive because both the Cowboys and Tigers managed this while dealing with major uncertainty at the QB position, something that would have crippled most teams. OSU finally settled on Clint Chelf, while Mizzou got quality contributions from Maty Mauk until James Franklin was healthy again. The game features a pair of top-notch offenses and better-than-expected defenses; still, it’s reasonable to figure we’re in for a shootout. It’s a toss-up, so I’ll just go with the SEC team in Mizzou.

Watchability: 5. Two of the fastest-rising programs in FBS and two of the best teams in the country this year.

Discover Orange Bowl

Clemson (10-2) vs. Ohio State (12-1)

January 3, 5:30 p.m.

These teams arrive in varying states of disappointment despite impressive seasons overall. Clemson expected to be the ACC frontrunner but was upstaged by surprising Florida State, while Ohio State went an underwhelming 12-0 before fading in the Big Ten title game. The Tigers hold the only marquee win by either team, a 38-35 victory in the opener against a healthy Georgia squad, but have been largely average since. After the shellacking at the hands of FSU a loss to rival South Carolina was almost expected, and verily, it came to pass. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, scraped by much like in 2012, with a slew of bad wins against a weak conference, but still seemed destined for a BCS Championship shot before facing Michigan State. I’m not entirely sure what to expect in this game; both teams have quality rosters, strong offenses and (at least) respectable defenses. Will one of the disappointed parties fail to show up? I’ll take Clemson, but I’m not confident about it.

Watchability: 5. Despite the failures of these teams they’re both still really, really good. 

There are only three games in the final "week" of the postseason but my championship game preview will be larger than the other bowls'. The 2013 season has nearly stopped spinning. I'm certain there will be more craziness before it's through. Onward, to victory and glory!