Let's go bowling

Army – Navy always offers thrills, but a week with only one football game is tough to get through. That won’t be the case this week when the bowls begin. Starting with Saturday’s four-game slate there will be a college football contest on TV nearly every day until January 8. My usual philosophy with bowls will return this year. The collegiate postseason is simply far too unpredictable to make a serious attempt at picks. It’s impossible to know which teams will show up and which players (or coaches) will be looking ahead to bigger things. With that said, this postseason preview will take the same form it has the past couple of years. My pick will be secondary to the watchability of the contest, rated from 1-5. All times Pacific.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Washington State (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-6)

December 21, 11:00 a.m.

Bowl season kicks off with a reasonably watchable clash of styles from the West Coast. Wazzu looked doomed to just miss out on the postseason after a three-game skid in Pac-12 play, but saved its season with a road upset of Arizona and got to play an extra game for the first time since 2003. CSU never strung together more than two wins in a row but was never really in danger of missing out on a bowl thanks to an offense that improved as the year went along and a bonus game against Hawai’i. I like the Rams a lot and I’m concerned with the Cougars’ ability to defend both the run and pass, something they struggled with in conference play. However, CSU also features a bottom-25 pass defense by several measures, and if there’s one thing WSU knows how to do, it’s throw. I’ll tentatively take Washington State

Watchability: 3. There should be scoring and turnovers.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

Fresno State (11-1) vs. USC (9-4)

December 21, 12:30 p.m.

A surprisingly juicy early bowl matchup, featuring two teams with a combined 20 wins and regional pride on the line. Fresno and SC haven’t met since the epic 2005 bout in the Coliseum when Reggie Bush went insane, but there’s plenty at stake here anyway given how much these schools recruit from the same area. The Bulldogs just missed a BCS bowl and have to be a little disappointed, so playing an in-state opponent should help to get the team motivated. USC went on an impressive run under Ed Orgeron, who resigned in protest after the Trojans hired Steve Sarkisian. It will be interesting to see where the team’s mindset is. Fresno had the better season, but USC’s strength is D and I’d be surprised to see the explosive Bulldogs’ offense go off against the Trojans’ superior athletes. The SC offense is a liability, but so is the Fresno defense. In any case, it should be a fairly close game and worth watching. 

Watchability: 4. There are a lot of playmakers on the field for this one.

  

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Buffalo (8-4) vs. San Diego State (7-5)

December 21, 2:30 p.m.

If you’re going to see two unranked mid-majors this postseason you could do a lot worse than Buffalo – SDSU. Both squads bounced back from ugly starts (0-2 for Buffalo, 0-3 for SDSU) to make an impact in their respective conference races, though they both also stumbled again near the end as the Bulls lost two of three to end the year and the Aztecs lost their finale. SDSU nearly snuck into the Mountain West title game but for a loss to Fresno State in overtime midway through the season. Neither team is particularly proficient running or passing, but both are competent in both respects. The defenses are likewise more or less average. In a fairly close matchup, I’ll go with the side from the better conference, which is SDSU from the Mountain West. The MAC has let me down before.

Watchability: 3. Still should be a pretty entertaining game.

  

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Tulane (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)

December 21, 6:00 p.m.

I was all set to take the Ragin’ Cajuns in this game. They have a better season record and a solid track record the past few seasons as an up-and-coming program. Throw in Tulane’s inconsistency – the Green Wave had a four-game win streak but otherwise never won two games in a row – and ULL seemed the smart pick. However, when you look deeper at the seasons both teams had the picture becomes more muddied. Despite its advances the Sun Belt is still a lesser conference than Conference USA, so a better record in the one league may not mean as much. Furthermore, Tulane went 1-1 in nonconference games against SBC teams (a 41-39 loss to South Alabama and a 31-14 win over Louisiana-Monroe), both of which beat ULL head-to-head. The Green Wave also quietly recorded a top-20 scoring defense, no small feat in the wide-open C-USA. In the end, though, Cajuns’ QB Terrance Broadway breaks the tie for me.

Watchability: 2. Broadway is the only real star in this contest.

  

Beef ‘O’ Brady’s Bowl St. Petersburg

East Carolina (9-3) vs. Ohio (7-5)

December 23, 11:00 a.m.

There’s a case to be made for ECU being the best team in Conference USA. The Pirates narrowly lost to Virginia Tech and Tulane, then suffered a meltdown in the de facto East Division title game against Marshall. Otherwise, they were amazing. ECU doesn’t run the ball and doesn’t really care to, instead favoring a sling-it-out approach that’s become all the rage in C-USA. Ohio’s ground-and-pound suffered this season with injuries and poor line play, dropping the Bobcats near the bottom of the country in rushing. With neither defense capable of shutting the other down, I’m much more comfortable with ECU in this game. Shane Carden and Justin Hardy make for a lethal QB-WR combination and the Pirates should win.

Watchability: 2. ECU’s Air Raid is fun, but that’s about all to see here.

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl

Boise State (8-4) vs. Oregon State (6-6)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

It’s really hard to know what to make of this game. Will the Broncos be devastated without longtime coach Chris Petersen, or motivated? What’s Oregon State’s mindset after losing five straight to end the season? I wouldn’t be surprised to see either team completely flat or jacked up to end the year on a high note. The only matchup that really matters is Boise State’s pass defense versus OSU’s air-it-out attack. If BSU can contain that, the Broncos will win. If the Beavers go wild, they’ll win. Pretty simple. This season Boise’s pass D has been in the bottom third of the country in yards allowed, though the unit has been pretty good from an efficiency standpoint, allowing only 16 touchdowns with 15 interceptions. Of course, this will be the second-best passing offense BSU has seen all year (behind Fresno State), so that might not mean much. I’ll tentatively take the Broncos, as I just can’t trust OSU right now.

Watchability: 3, but improves to a 4 if the offenses get rolling.

Little Caesars Bowl

Pittsburgh (6-6) vs. Bowling Green (10-3)

December 26, 3:00 p.m.

There’s no sense hiding it: I really like Bowling Green. The Falcons’ superb defense stifled the MAC and ranked fifth in the nation in points allowed, while the offense rounded into form and ended the year at a respectable 35 points per game. BGSU is balanced offensively and swarming defensively, so it’s no surprise the team upset NIU for the conference title. Pitt did get a late-season upset of Notre Dame but was otherwise highly unimpressive after a 3-1 start, winning just three conference games in a rough transition to the ACC. The Panthers do have an equal talent level (DT Aaron Donald may be the best defensive lineman in the country), but this has been a mediocre squad for most of 2013. Barring a (2009 Big 12 Championship) Ndamukong Suh-esque domination by Donald, BGSU should win.

Watchability: 3. Donald is impressive and the Falcons’s D is great.

  

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Utah State (8-5) vs. Northern Illinois (12-1)

December 26, 6:30 p.m.

We’ve seen what happens when NIU faces a legitimate defense. For that reason, Huskies fans have reason to be afraid. One game after getting stuffed by the best mid-major D in the nation, NIU gets… the second-best mid-major D in Utah State. The Aggies’ success this year is all the more impressive when you consider how the team has operated without star QB Chuckie Keeton for most of the season. Just one game ago USU held a high-flying Fresno State attack to just 24 in a narrow Mountain West title game loss, so it’s safe to say this unit knows what it’s doing. However, I’m going against my general instinct (defense over offense) and taking the Huskies in this game. I think the humiliation of getting stomped by Bowling Green will motivate NIU. It’s a tentative pick, as I could easily see a repeat of the MAC Championship, but in this contest I'm guessing USU’s defense finally breaks down a little.

Military Bowl

Marshall (9-4) vs. Maryland (7-5)

December 27, 11:30 a.m.

Marshall and Maryland had very different seasons. The Thundering Herd lost three games by a combined 13 points before a stunning blowout loss to Rice in the Conference USA Championship. Maryland started 4-0 but never looked the same after a 63-0 pasting at the hands of Florida State, staggering to 7-5. While the ACC is undoubtedly stronger than C-USA, I still think Marshall is a better team. The Herd put up nasty offensive numbers behind QB Raheem Cato and exhibited the kind of balance the Terrapins can only dream of. QB injuries (again) crippled the Terps’ hopes, leading to inconsistent play from the entire team. Marshall doesn’t play very good defense, but neither does Maryland, so there’s not really anything for the Terps to fall back on in this game. I’ll take Marshall to rebound after a disappointing loss in the title game.

Watchability: 3. Maryland is, ahem, sluggish, but Marshall can be a lot of fun to watch.

Texas Bowl

Syracuse (6-6) vs. Minnesota (8-4)

December 27, 3:00 p.m.

For all the talk about how down the Big Ten has been, Minnesota represents the league’s best chance at redemption. The Golden Gophers quietly went 8-2 with wins over Nebraska and Penn State before falling in a pair of competitive games to end the year against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Minnesota’s passing attack is anemic but the ground game is solid, while the defense gave up a respectable 22 points per game. Syracuse’s offense is built similarly, so don’t expect to see too many explosive plays in this game. The Orange are marginally worse on D but not enough to make much of a difference. In all likelihood, this will come down to old-school principles: stopping the running game and turnovers. Whichever team better establishes the run and plays clean should win the game. I’ve seen the worst of both these teams, and I think Syracuse’s floor is lower.

Watchability: 2. There just aren’t many playmakers out there.

Fight Hunger Bowl

BYU (8-4) vs. Washington (8-4)

December 27, 6:30 p.m.

A classic matchup of two proud programs whose glory days are behind them, the Fight Hunger Bowl could have meant a lot to the winning team had Washington retained Steve Sarkisian. With both coaches in for the long haul, this game could have served as a springboard for the future for the winner. Alas, it wasn’t to be, as UW’s fortuitous upgrade to Chris Petersen virtually ensures the Huskies will be relevant in the coming years. Bronco Mendenhall has also done a fine job and should have his team ready to play another Pac-12 opponent. As for the prediction? Changing coaches is tricky and we never know how things will work out in bowl games. In a perfect world UW would arrive fired up to impress the new boss, but... BYU is no pushover and has seen its offense evolve into a two-dimensional threat over the course of the year. Washington should be able to match the Cougars’ weapons, though the Huskies haven’t always come through in these kind of games. Still, I’ll tentatively take UW.

Watchability: 3. These are two quality teams, but the coaching change mutes the appeal a little.

The first week of bowl season doesn’t always feature great squads but invariably produces at least a few great contests. Next week is when things really kick into gear with some of this season’s heavy hitters. Consider this week a primer on the upcoming excitement.