New World Order

Few sports have ever successfully navigated upheaval like college football has experienced over the past decade. The NCAA has come under intense scrutiny, both for letting certain favored schools off the hook and for failing to properly punish impropriety. The newly-minted playoff created to fix the BCS is already hearing calls for expansion, while conference realignment has rendered the national landscape virtually unrecognizable.

What’s more, the game itself has changed radically in the last 10 years. The possession-based action of the early-to-mid-2000’s has vanished, embraced now by only a handful of holdout schools. The revolutionary spread option authored by visionaries Urban Meyer, Chip Kelly and Gus Malzahn has become the norm Infused with new-age up-tempo and old-school Run and Shoot tactics, the spread has shattered previously-held notions of offensive potential.

Yet the more things change, the more they stay the same. Time-honored maxims still apply in college football, even with all the flashy improvements to the sport. Having a superior quarterback is still the shortest route to victory. Winning the line of scrimmage still wins games. And as Alabama has so aptly demonstrated in this most imbalanced of sports, championships are still reserved for the hyper-elite.

The Crimson Tide have won four of the last seven National Championships, accumulating a national-best 72-10 record (87.8 percent). Here are Bama’s recruiting class rankings since the start of the last decade: 5, 1, 3, 1, 1, 1, 3. Is it shocking in any way that the Tide seem nigh-unbeatable at times? Alabama has bent even the mighty SEC to its will.

The Playoff was intended to provide a “true” national champion – the best team, decided on the field. Unfortunately, it may have done just that. The other three teams to win a title during Bama’s run – Ohio State, Florida State and Auburn – all also consistently recruit at an elite level. It’s almost impossible now to win the championship without an entire roster built of top-15 recruiting classes (at worst). The most impressive achievement of this decade might be Oregon’s second-best national record of 69-12 (85.2 percent) with a high class ranking of just 11. (Conversely, there’s no uglier track record than Texas’ 41-35 in the past seven years despite an average recruiting ranking of ninth overall.)

So the question now is not, “Can anyone beat Alabama?” It’s “Can anyone recruit like Bama?” The Crimson Tide have lost games. They are beatable in a micro sense, on a good day against a quality opponent. But Bama is winning the war, stockpiling elite talent to both use and hide away from other schools (and prevent from transferring, another of Nick Saban’s unseemly practices). It’s going to take schools like Ohio State, Notre Dame and USC to even the playing field, and – despite the Buckeyes’ win in the 2014 Playoff – even those historic powers are having a rough go of it.

At this point my choice to win the National Championship is probably pretty clear. But as always, I do more than predict a single team to win the title. The pool of true contenders is a small one, particularly so this season, and I’ll elaborate on the teams I think have a shot in the section below. Group A is comprised of the hyper-elite, the favorites to win their respective conferences and make the College Football Playoff. Group B is made up of squads I like but feel need help to reach that ultimate goal. New this year, Group C will consist of teams that have talent but also fatal flaws that keep them out of true contention.

Group A

Alabama

Might as well get it out of the way. Alabama has flaws, just like any team. The Crimson Tide lost a decent chunk of the starting defense, including star linebacker Reggie Ragland and tackle A’Shawn Robinson. QB Jake Coker is gone, as is Heisman-winning running back Derrick Henry and his backup Kenyan Drake. I doubt Nick Saban cares. Remember those recruiting rankings? The Tide can plug in another half-dozen elite defensive players and not miss a beat.

The RB situation is more tenuous, though there’s little question a quality rotation will emerge given the talent available. QB is the real question mark, but Alabama seems to be the one team in the country relatively immune to such concerns. Whereas teams like LSU and Texas (which also recruit elite defensive players) seem to be held back by their mediocre signal-callers, Bama inevitably finds a decent, efficient passer who manages games and doesn’t muck up the good work of the defense and running game. It’s the Alabama Way, and the reason this team has to be considered the favorite to repeat.

Ohio State

OSU has a delightful September matchup with Oklahoma and must travel to both Wisconsin and Michigan State, but it’s doubtful the Buckeyes will be anything less than very, very good. A lot of key defenders are gone, and yes, so are RB Ezekiel Elliott and the top three receivers. But like Alabama, Ohio State has the luxury of simply reloading, and the re-insertion of QB J.T. Barrett (a 2014 First-Team All-Big Ten player) will ease the transition.

The Big Ten is also significantly weaker than the SEC, which partially accounts for the Buckeyes’ recent success. Michigan is on the rise with Jim Harbaugh, but the Wolverines still have a ways to go to catch their rival. The odds are against Michigan State sustaining the same level of elite play, and the entire West Division is largely a non-threat. Urban Meyer is too good to allow this squad to drop from contention.

Oklahoma

I hate myself a little for including the Sooners here. How many times does this team have to flop on the big stage before it stops getting preseason hype? Bob Stoops lost the right to the moniker “Big Game Bob” with his atrocious game plan against Clemson in last year’s Playoff semifinal, although if we’re being honest he probably deserved to lose it about a decade ago (if not earlier). The Big 12 has lost a great deal of its luster, providing a noticeable lack of preparation for its marquee teams on the big stage. The Sooners have gotten throttled in their last two postseason contests, too. So why do I believe this year?

The truth is that I simply have more faith in OU than any of its Big 12 peers, especially now that Baylor’s program and image have taken such a hit in the last six months. Oklahoma has perhaps the nation’s best QB behind center in Baker Mayfield, which eases quite a few of my fears. The Big 12 slate is navigable, and there are two meaty opportunities for respect in the non-league schedule in the form of Houston and Ohio State. I expect the Sooners to repeat as conference champs, and with that will almost assuredly come a Playoff invite.

Clemson

The Tigers face the impossible task of living up the greatest season in school history in 2015. They’ll be doing it without five of their top six tacklers from last year and with a daunting road contest at Florida State on the schedule, a game that will likely decide the ACC’s champion and Playoff entrant. There’s also the specter of the close loss in the National Championship, which could potentially haunt this squad.

While the defense might be weaker, however, the offense will probably be even more potent. Desahun Watson is a legit star at the QB position, and more importantly, his team will face a pretty cupcake-laden slate in the tepid ACC. Outside of the showdown with the Seminoles there’s nobody who can come close to the Tigers in 2016, turning this into essentially a one-game season. Better teams than Clemson have stumbled on the illusion of non-pressure such a schedule provides. We’ll see how they handle being the favorite.

Florida State

Unlike Clemson, the Seminoles actually play a real schedule, with an opening week tilt against Ole Miss as well as a cross-division draw of Coastal contenders Miami (FL) and North Carolina (as opposed to the Tigers’ eye-rolling draw of Georgia Tech and Pittsburgh). That schedule is probably the biggest impediment to a conference championship/Playoff berth type of season, though Clemson will certainly have a say about that as well.

The case for the Seminoles is talent; like Alabama and Ohio State, this squad can simply reload. Five of past six recruiting classes have been in the top five nationally, including 2016’s No. 1 class overall. Clemson was the better team last year but still had trouble pulling away from the ‘Noles, indicative of the talent gap between the two programs. And yes, FSU does have to start a freshman at QB… but as I recall, that worked out pretty well the last time.

Group B

LSU

Oh, LSU. The anti-Bama. Both schools recruit for defense and the offensive line first, then try to insert a QB who just won’t lose games. Yet at every turn, the Crimson Tide seem to find an average-to-solid game manager, while the Tigers always trot out some incompetent sap. All the pieces are here again, with 17 returning starters and a host of blue-chip talent. The main issue is once again the QB and if Les Miles can finally coax something resembling respectability out of his passing offense (The secondary issue is how long Miles gets to coast on his flukey 2007 championship he won with Nick Saban's players).

Brandon Harris isn’t a lost cause, but a 54 percent completion percentage and a 13-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio isn’t going to cut it in 2016. The Tigers have gotten exactly one quality QB season in the last eight years, and even Zach Mettenberger’s impressive 2013 campaign was preceded by a highly disappointing 2012. This team has all the talent in the world, but unless it figures out an offense beyond “Run Leonard Fournette into the ground,” it’s going to come up short against elite competition again.

Ole Miss

The Rebels are sort of the inverse LSU, with the SEC’s top QB in Chad Kelly but holes elsewhere that will likely sink their championship dreams. It’s not going to be easy to replace the offense’s top three playmakers or all-world D-lineman Robert Nkemdiche, but the Rebels have recruited well enough over the past few years – some might say suspiciously well – to not fall off the map.

In the end a lack of continuity will probably doom this team, despite the individual brilliance of Kelly. Ole Miss was lucky to beat Alabama last year and won’t do so again. A season-opening showdown with a Florida State team eager to leap back into the national spotlight is another huge landmine. It seems unlikely the Rebels will continue to defy the odds and improve their record for the fifth straight season.

Notre Dame

The Fighting Irish have again orchestrated a nasty independent schedule (as well they should). There’s a trip to a potentially resurgent Texas in Week One, showdowns with quality Miami (FL) and Navy teams, and of course the traditional battles with Michigan State, Stanford and USC. A lack of experience (just nine returning starters) will make a successful campaign against that slate a tall order, but if they pull it off the Irish will certainly be in the Playoff.

In Notre Dame’s favor is a very favorable QB situation, as highly-touted passers DeShone Kizer and Malik Zaire compete for the right to be guided by Brian Kelly’s very steady – and QB-friendly – hand. The maximum of 12 games is a hindrance that allows no room for error, but this team almost made the Playoff last year against a tougher schedule. Count out Notre Dame at your peril.

Houston

Houston is a very interesting wild card. Normally I’d be wary of a mid-major that lost several starters and was coming off a dream season. Those are strong indicators of a regression to the mean, even in a weaker conference like the AAC. However, there are two key factors working in Houston’s favor that point to a potential triumphant follow-up to 2015’s 13-1 campaign.

First, there’s QB Greg Ward, one of the nation’s most dynamic dual-threat players. Second, there’s the schedule, which is seemingly crafted by destiny to ensure the Cougars become the first Group of Five school to make the Playoff. The AAC slate doesn’t do Houston any favors, with road trips to fellow contenders Cincinnati, Navy and Memphis. But two big non-conference showdowns with Power Five programs – at home against Louisville in November and a “neutral site” opener against Oklahoma in the Houston Texans’ NRG Stadium – can boost this squad’s credibility even more after last season’s finish. What’s more, if Houston runs the table, it will potentially eliminate a Power Five champion in the Sooners, clearing its own path to the Playoff.

Group C

Tennessee

The Volunteers are getting a lot of hype, which is fair for a team that returns 17 starters and appears to have finally crawled out of the mess that began at the end of the Phil Fulmer era. 2016’s schedule is the reason to really be excited about this team, though. Much of the SEC East is hapless (the last five games are almost assuredly wins), and as long as the Vols can split their Florida/Georgia series’ they’ll be in good position to win the division. In the end, UT probably isn’t quite good enough yet to be a real threat, but I understand the buzz.

Michigan

Jim Harbaugh, irritating though he may be, is a quality coach. Michigan is clearly on the rise with him at the helm, and the future showdowns he’ll have with Ohio State’s Urban Meyer should have fans salivating. But this is a little too soon. The Wolverines must travel to Michigan State, Iowa and OSU, and they aren’t winning all those games. The rest of the Big Ten is soft, so anything less than 12-1 won’t impress the committee enough to merit a Playoff invite.

Boise State

If Houston, why not Boise State? I’m glad you asked. BYU and Washington State are worthy non-conference foes, sure, but they don’t measure up to Louisville and Oklahoma. What’s more, the AAC is better than the Mountain West, offering fewer opportunities for impressive poll-boosting wins. It’s possible both the Broncos and San Diego State could go 12-0 to set up a massive conference championship game showdown, but even then, BSU (or SDSU) would take a backseat to an undefeated Houston.

Pac-12 Champion

It’s an ugly proposition after the conference was left out of the Playoff a year ago, but I don’t see the Pac-12 getting in. There aren’t any elite teams and there are too many above-average teams. Oregon, Stanford, Washington and Washington State are going to beat each other up in the North, while UCLA, USC and Utah should make the South a bloodbath as well. This could potentially be the most thrilling conference race in the country, but I doubt anyone makes it out with fewer than two losses. This will be covered more in-depth in my Pac-12 preview.

The pool is small this year. Alabama has raised the bar for title contention. It’s no longer good enough to be above-average, get lucky and win your conference. Recruiting is maybe more important than ever, and the Playoff committee has already put pressure on Power Five teams to strengthen scheduling, which will make those whirlwind dream seasons against weak competition significantly less likely. The new era of college football has now begun.

With the Playoff contenders down, the next topic is how we’ll get to that point. Seeing elite teams schedule other Power Five programs in non-league action is very promising, but it’s the conference season that truly matters in college football. Tomorrow, I’ll explore the individual conference races and make picks for each division and league champion.

A battle for the soul of college football

At 24-12, I’ve performed respectably – although somewhat underwhelmingly – through the first two weeks of the bowl season. The toughest loss was Oklahoma getting blanked in the second half against Clemson; I really thought the Sooners, the hottest team in the country, were going to pull an Ohio State in 2014 and ride their late-season momentum to a title. Oh, well.

The last few games and the national championship are pretty legit, even though TCU lost Trevone Boykin two days ago to a ridiculous arrest and suspension. The games are all in Pacific time and rated one a 1-5 scale of watchability.

Taxslayer Bowl

Penn State (7-5) vs. Georgia (9-3)

January 2, 9:00 a.m.

Before the season, this would have looked like a great matchup, with a potential first-round QB in PSU’s Christian Hackenberg squaring off against a highly-regarded UGA team. Unfortunately, Hackenberg never looked that good, and the Bulldogs were a very disappointing 9-3, with zero wins of note in a bad division. I’ll take Georgia, but it’s not a happy pick, nor is this a good game.

Watchability: 1. Neither team inspires anything but yawns.

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Kansas State (6-6) vs. Arkansas (7-5)

January 2, 12:20 p.m.

This doesn’t seem like a particularly exciting January matchup at first glance, but Arkansas ended the year hot and looks ready to take the next step under Bret Bielema. The Razorbacks would have had six straight wins to end the year if not for a 51-50 shootout loss to Mississippi State, and their 53-52 upset of Ole Miss a couple weeks earlier was one of the year’s best games. If you’re wanting for a team that will get some attention next preseason, look no further. K-State lost to a lot of good teams, but 6-6 is 6-6, and the Wildcats aren’t winning this game.

Watchability: 2, but could hop up to a 3 if KSU puts up a fight.

Valero Alamo Bowl

Oregon (9-3) vs. TCU (10-2)

January 2, 3:45 p.m.

What a shame that Boykin made the decision to sneak out after curfew and get arrested after a bar fight. This promised to be one of the best matchups of the bowl season, featuring the two most dynamic quarterbacks in the country (sorry, Clemson’s Deshaun Watson) and a pair of hyper-fast, hyper-explosive offenses. Alas, it now appears to be Oregon’s game, unless the Horned Frogs put together a truly tremendous game plan. Ducks take it.

Watchability: 4, down from a solid 5 with Boykin.

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

West Virginia (7-5) vs. Arizona State (6-6)

January 2, 7:15 p.m.

West Virginia should have beaten Kansas State to end the year, but it’s Arizona State that has the misleading record. The Sun Devils threw away games against Utah, Oregon and Cal, as inconsistency doomed a campaign that could have very well ended in the Pac-12 title game. ASU is a more dangerous pick, but the Mountaineers are missing All-Big 12 corner Daryl Worley due to academics and played in a softer conference. I like the Sun Devils in a minor upset, provided they can take care of the ball and rein in Dana Holgorsen’s high-octane attack.

Watchability: 3. Not elite squads, but there should be scoring.

College Football Playoff National Championship

Alabama (13-1) vs. Clemson (14-0)

January 11, 5:30 p.m.

Of course, Clemson is talented. The Tigers have built up their program in impressive fashion over the past several years, notched the key high-profile wins every rising team needs, and finally vanquished rival Florida State. Clemson upset an Oklahoma team a lot of people, myself included, thought would go on to win the title. It’s past time the Tigers started getting some respect.

But this is Alabama, and I simply can’t pick against the Crimson Tide. Once again, the SEC champs have an elite defense; once again, they’ve overcome doubts about their offense; once again, Nick Saban has proved that in the end, it’s recruiting that wins championships. Urban Meyer is the only coach I’d take against Saban in a one-game, winner-take-all scenario. Dabo Swinney has to prove his chops before I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt. As good and as capable of winning this game as Clemson is, the pick has to be the Tide.

Watchability: 5

It’s been a wild, unpredictable season, and we’ve seen that echoed in the bowl season. There are just a few games left, but most promise to be pretty fun. The National Championship should be, too. See you there.

The Bowlster Wonderful Week of the Year

I started a delightful 5-1 in my bowl predictions but fell to 6-4 before recovering to finish 8-4. Week Two is the giant overload of bowls, so here’s where I have to make the most of my picks. All predictions are in Pacific time and on a 1-5 scale of watchability.

St. Petersburg Bowl

Connecticut (6-6) vs. Marshall (9-3)

December 26, 8:00 a.m.

Let’s be real. UConn is only here because the Huskies got to play Houston with a backup QB while the Cougars turned the ball over five times. This is not a good team. Marshall, on the other hand, is actually pretty good. The Thundering Herd got K.O.’d in the last game of the year against Western Kentucky, but other than that it was a very solid year. The Herd have a nicely balanced offense and a quietly powerful D. This is an easy one.

Watchability: 1. No marquee guys and UConn shouldn’t be in a bowl.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Miami (FL) vs. Washington State (8-4)

December 26, 11:00 a.m.

This is a little tougher of a pick. Wazzu had an odd year, losing at least games it shouldn’t have but winning at least one it didn’t deserve. Miami’s season was less confusing; the Hurricanes largely beat their bad opponents and lost to the good ones. Both are programs on the rise after long dormant periods, with promising young quarterbacks. The Cougars were a little more consistent, so I give a slight edge to WSU.

Watchability: 3. This might be a big stepping stone for next season.

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Washington (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (9-4)

December 26, 11:20 a.m.

On paper, Southern Miss looks like the stronger squad. At 9-4, the Golden Eagles won the Conference USA’s West Division and finished as the league’s runner-up after a strong showing against Western Kentucky. Outside of the upset of USC, Washington didn’t really beat anyone that notable. But that perspective belies the difficulty of UW’s Pac-12 schedule, as well as its respectable showings in losses to Boise State and Oregon and massive injury issues. The Huskies still cobbled together one of the nation’s best defenses, and are correctly favored in this matchup.

Watchability: 2. Washington might be good next year, so now’s the time to hop on the bandwagon.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Indiana (6-6) vs. Duke (7-5)

December 26, 12:30 p.m.

Indiana came up tantalizingly short versus Ohio State and Iowa, but defense remains a major issue for the Hoosiers, who allowed more points than they scored. Duke started 6-1 but lost four straight to tumble out of contention. The Blue Devils have a better defense, but I’m going with Indiana, which had a better year than the record might indicate. I love the Hoosiers offensive trio of QB Nate Sudfeld, running back Jordan Howard and receiver Simmie Cobbs, Jr. Should a shootout.

Watchability: 3. There will be some scoring.

Camping World Independence Bowl

Tulsa (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

December 26, 2:45 p.m.

Given the choice between a pair of .500 teams that hail from a power conference and a mid-major, I’ll almost always go with the Power Five one. I had to put that belief to test here, because I just don’t think Virginia Tech is very good. The Hokies are tepid on offense, as always, and their defense, while good, is nowhere near the fearsome units of years past. Tulsa gives up a ton of points but features an explosive attack led by QB Dane Evans, who will cross the 4,000-yard mark in this game. But the big rub is the retirement of longtime Tech coach Frank Beamer, the last of the old guard coaches. The Hokies are expected to come out in force for Beamer, and I can’t argue against the emotion on that sideline.

Watchability: 2, and only for Beamer’s farewell.

Foster Farms Bowl

UCLA (8-4) vs. Nebraska (5-7)

December 26, 6:15 p.m.

Nebraska is the second of the awful 5-7 teams that got bowl invites this year after there weren’t enough teams to qualify. The Cornhuskers had a trying first season under Mike Riley, with their seven losses coming by a combined 31 points. UCLA, as usual, was overhyped in the preseason and failed to live up to expectations, losing to every reasonably good team on its schedule. Still, the Bruins are demonstrably better, and the game is being played in California, for crying out loud. UCLA had better win this one.

Watchability: 2, if only to see the Bruins squirm when Nebraska ties the game in the fourth.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman

Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Navy (10-2)

December 28, 11:30 a.m.

This is a tough one to call, as Pitt has the kind of defense that could give the Navy option some problems after a several-week layoff. The Panthers got a lot of love this year for their close losses, but beat nobody of substance. Navy was marvelous from Week One and actually boasts a better D than Pitt. The Midshipmen have their work cut out, but I think a low-scoring Navy win is in order.

Watchability: 3. It won’t be a shootout, but these teams are decent.

Quick Lane Bowl

Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Minnesota (5-7)

December 28, 2:00 p.m.

Minnesota is a special sort of 5-7 case that actually deserves a bowl. The Golden Gophers should have beat Iowa, TCU and Michigan, so this isn’t some charity invite. CMU does have a great QB in Cooper Rush, but the Chippewas were actually somewhat disappointing offensively this season. I like Minnesota in this one, despite the Gophers’ near-total lack of firepower.

Watchability: 1. No no no.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

California (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-5)

December 29, 11:00 a.m.

Cal continues to struggle defensively under Sonny Dykes, but 2015 was a breakthrough season of sorts for the Golden Bears. The offense finally came together consistently, while the D improved just enough to hold off a couple of foes. Air Force was one of the better mid-majors this season, nearly knocking off San Diego State in the Mountain West Final. I like the Falcons, but this is a Pac-12 opponent we’re talking about. Cal should win, provided it isn’t one of those patented Air Raid breakdown games.

Watchability: 2. Probably should be higher, but neither team is exactly a draw.

Russell Athletic Bowl

North Carolina (11-2) vs. Baylor (9-3)

December 29, 2:30 p.m.

Here we go! Finally, two ranked teams. UNC is the clear pick here, though that might not be the case were Baylor not playing with backups at QB, RB, and WR. I just don’t see how the Bears hold up – or keep up – in that scenario. The Tar Heels were a bit a faux contender all year, but QB Marquise Williams is solid and UNC was very balanced. Baylor faced its toughest four opponents in its final four games – and went 1-3. UNC will win, and Baylor fans will hopefully quiet down forever until the team wins a meaningful game.

Watchability: 4. It will be interesting to see how the Bears scrap together an offense.

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Nevada (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-5)

December 29, 4:30 p.m.

An extremely odd matchup of two teams from the same conference. Nevada and CSU didn’t play in the regular season, so at least this isn’t a rematch. The Wolf Pack were up and down all year but did face an ambitious non-conference schedule against Arizona and Texas A&M. Colorado State was the better, more consistent squad, and more importantly did it in a tougher division featuring Boise State and Air Force, teams Nevada missed. The Rams are the pick.

Watchability: 1. This is a weird game.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

LSU (8-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

December 29, 6:00 p.m.

Look, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. The Tigers got blown out three straight times after beating nobody in their first seven games. But I still expect they’ll have enough to put away the Red Raiders, to whom defense is an abstract, foreign concept. Tech loves to throw it all over the place, and it’s pretty good at it. But it’s tough to win when you never run and can’t play D, and LSU’s plodding attack should be able to slow the game down enough to get the victory.

Watchability: 3, because Leonard Fournette is involved.

Birmingham Bowl

Auburn (6-6) vs. Memphis (9-3)

December 30, 9:00 a.m.

Let me get this straight. Auburn was terrible this year, no? The Tigers went 6-6, with two wins in SEC play, one of which was against Kentucky. They should have lost to FCS foe Jacksonville State. Memphis went 9-3 and beat Ole Miss, Auburn’s conference mate, who in turn defeated Auburn. And the Tigers are favored in this game? I get that Memphis lost its coach to Virginia Tech, but I think the retention of the FBS’ most efficient passer – Paxton Lynch – will soften the blow. Memphis all the way.

Watchability: 3. Lynch might be the first QB taken in next year’s draft.

Belk Bowl

North Carolina State (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4)

December 30, 12:30 p.m.

Neither of these teams was worth much this season, and neither beat anyone of note, with the exception of MSU’s upset of a hot Arkansas team in the penultimate game of the year. There are a couple of decent college QB’s here, with the Wolfpack’s Jacoby Brissett and the Bulldogs’s Dak Prescott, but overall neither offense is particularly exciting. This is the most middling of all the bowls. I’ll take Mississippi State.

Watchability: 1. That feels generous.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Louisville (7-5)

December 30, 4:00 p.m.

Louisville was tremendously disappointing in 2015, but the same can be said for A&M. With not one but two high-profile QB’s transferring and Kevin Sumlin’s job in question, the smart money seems to be on Louisville. That’s a hard pick to make, given how uninspiring the Cardinals were. Texas A&M played in a better league, too. In the end, given the crazy amount of turmoil surrounding the Aggies, I have to go with Louisville.

Watchability: 2, because I have no idea what A&M is going to look like.

National Funding Holiday Bowl

USC (8-5) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)

December 30, 7:30 p.m.

USC should win this game handily, but I think at this point we all know how that goes. The Trojans were allegedly “hot” after firing Steve Sarkisian, upsetting Utah and beating three bad teams; Oregon laid waste to that idea, then Stanford drove a stake through it. The Trojans remain the ultimate underachievers. Wisconsin led the country in scoring defense and lost to Iowa close, but playing in the Big Ten West meant the Badgers faced absolutely no one. USC needs to and should win this game without issue… we’ll see if they prove it.

Watchability: 3. These teams are always good on the big stage.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

Houston (12-1) vs. Florida State (10-2)

December 31, 9:00 a.m.

FSU is favored for a reason, but don’t count the Cougars out. Houston would have been 13-0 if not for an untimely injury to QB Greg Ward, Jr. The Cougars largely romped through a very good AAC and played in the stronger West Division to boot. I like this team a lot. Florida State played exactly one good team all season (Clemson) and lost. And yet… the Seminoles defense is very, very good, and I expect they’ll be able to hold the dynamic Ward in check most of the game. With a rush-dominant attack led by RB Dalvin Cook able to control the clock, the ‘Noles will win.

Watchability: 5. Two talented teams with a lot on the line, reputation-wise.

Capital One Orange Bowl – CFP Semifinal

Oklahoma (11-1) vs. Clemson (13-0)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

This is going to be fun. I’ve made my feelings about OU very clear: this is the best team in the country. QB Baker Mayfield should have won the Heisman and the Sooners are playing better than anyone right now. The offense is outrageous: balanced, explosive, powerful, efficient. The defense isn’t elite, but it’s as good or better than the Tigers’ while playing against a handful of Big 12 offenses that are all better than any Clemson saw in the ACC.

That doesn’t mean this will be easy. Clemson is also very good, and Deshaun Watson deserved to be in New York. The Tigers have earned a No. 1 ranking. But Watson’s weapons aren’t of the same caliber as Mayfield’s, and Clemson undoubtedly played an easier schedule than the Sooners. I expect points, but Oklahoma will prevail.

Watchability: 5. Two elite teams squaring off on New Year’s Eve.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Michigan State (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

MSU is back where it believed it should have been last year. The question is, are the Spartans actually better than in 2014? I don’t think they are. The statistics back me up; MSU is averaging more than 100 yards per game fewer than it did last year on offense and about 50 more yards per game allowed on D. QB Connor Cook has improved, but he’s about the only thing that has. The biggest difference from last season is the Spartans got to play weaker Oregon and Ohio State teams that beat them in 2014. Is that a recipe to win a title?

Don’t despair, though. Alabama is weaker, too. The SEC got a lot worse in 2015, yet the Crimson Tide actually regressed offensively, returning to their plodding ground-based attack and throwing only as a complement after losing dual-threat QB Blake Sims and all-world receiver Amari Cooper. Of course, the defense remains elite, but as we saw in last year’s semifinal against Ohio State, that can’t always be relied upon. In the end, I see ‘Bama pulling out a low-scoring affair, but neither team is particularly inspiring.

Watchability: 5. Less scoring doesn’t always mean less interesting.

Outback Bowl

Northwestern (10-2) vs. Tennessee (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

Northwestern started 5-0 with an upset of Stanford, but everyone knew that was a fluke. The Wildcats played only two more high-quality opponents the rest of the way (Michigan, Iowa) and lost both games. Tennessee blew three early games against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas; otherwise, the Volunteers would have played in the SEC Championship. As it is, they nearly upset Alabama. NU is a mess offensively, and while the Wildcats have a good scoring defense, that’s easy to accomplish when you’re facing terrible Big Ten offenses. I’ll take Tennessee.

Watchability: 3. For how high-profile a game this is, it’s not very enticing.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Michigan (9-3) vs. Florida (10-3)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

This is one of the easiest picks this postseason. Florida is a mess at QB, everyone knows it, and any above-average foe (see: FSU and Alabama in the last two games) can exploit it. Michigan is one of those teams. The Gators do play excellent defense, but hey, so do the Wolverines, and UM can actually score. Michigan wins, no problem.

Watchability: 2. Florida’s offense is really, really bad.

Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl

Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

This feels like a pretty easy call as well. Notre Dame had a nice season, adroitly adjusting to injuries across the board en route to a near-Playoff berth. But despite all the talent in South Bend, the truth is that Ohio State recruits better. The Buckeyes, even with all the underachieving, are stronger on offense, and they’re truly fearsome defensively. OSU has a lot to prove to the nation after sleepwalking through the regular season and I expect they’ll do so with aplomb.

Watchability: 4. There’s a lot of talent on this field.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual

Stanford (11-2) vs. Iowa (12-1)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

I run the risk, as usual, of getting burned here by Stanford. The Cardinal are the second-worst team in the country to count on as a favorite (trailing only grand champion Oklahoma), and typically don’t perform well in out-of-conference games. In fact, the last time Stanford beat a real Big Ten team – no, Maryland last year doesn’t count – was in 2012. But there’s a reason the Cardinal are favored. Iowa cakewalked to a 12-0 record by missing every quality team in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes’ offense is mediocre and their defense only looked great because of the offenses it faced. Stanford should win.

Watchability: 4. There’s not a lot of spice, but it’s still the Rose Bowl.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Ole Miss (9-3)

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

This is a tough one to call, as both teams are overrated. Oklahoma State tosses the ball around everywhere but doesn’t play defense. Ole Miss got a fluke upset of Alabama but was otherwise exposed by Florida and Memphis. I expect both sides to score a fair amount, but it’s a total toss-up. In the end, I like how the Rebels ended the season (two wins to the Cowboys two losses) and the fact that they went out and played Memphis when they didn’t have to do so. OSU had a few close calls with bad opponents (Texas, K-State) and probably was lucky to get to 10 wins.

Watchability: 4, more for the potential scoring than the quality of the teams.

Bowl Week Two is packed to the brim and couldn’t be more exciting! Let’s continue this holiday fun in style.

The Bowlst Wonderful Time of the Year

Despite my past disdain for the over-abundance of bowls in the college football postseason, I admit that I do truly love bowl season. There are games on constantly, usually pitting teams that wouldn’t normally play against each other, and it gives us one last chance to see special players in televised showcase contests.

That’s not to say the bowl system is exactly laudable: on the contrary, it remains a shameless money-grab for the most part, and the natural cycle of hirings and firings at the end of the season guarantees some teams will be playing without a coach, with an interim one, or worst of all, with the newly minted boss peering down at his minions from the coaches’ box like an overly critical bird of prey. Throw in the usual no-shows, and the bowls deserve all the scrutiny they get.

Still, there’s something rather magical about the series of games played around the holidays, particularly the storied bowls that have existed for decades. The mystique of the Rose, Sugar and Cotton bowls will never die, even with the onset of the new playoff system. That’s what makes it all worthwhile, in the end.

As always, I’ll break down each matchup (with all times Pacific), pick a winner and rate the games on a 1-5 scale of “watchability”, which should serve as a warning when you’re considering sitting down for an afternoon with a couple of 6-6 mid-major junkball teams. This post will cover all the bowls through next Friday.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Arizona (6-6) vs. New Mexico (7-5)

December 19, 11:00 a.m.

Ugh. The Pac-12 is favored in most of its bowls, but the reason for that will become very apparent once you see the matchups. The Wildcats are favored and should be; despite a frustrating 6-6 campaign ‘Zona is much more talented than UNM. The team has a variety of playmakers on the offensive side that should overwhelm the Lobos, though motivation could be an issue. New Mexico’s seven-win season (which included gigantic upsets of Boise State and division champion Air Force) has been very exciting, but I doubt the Lobos’ option-based attack will catch Arizona too off-guard. The ‘Cats see enough of that in the Pac-12.

Watchability: 2. Might be some scoring, but Arizona should win handily.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

BYU (9-3) vs. Utah (9-3)

December 19, 12:30 p.m.

This is a fairly good matchup of two teams who probably deserve a better landing spot than this, but that’s not what makes the Vegas Bowl must-see TV. No, it’s the implications of what might happen in this game that make it potentially thrilling. Utah! BYU! The Holy War! In Las Vegas! This is a top-five rivalry in terms of hatred right now, so much so that the teams stopped playing in the regular season. Add BYU’s recent history of unsportsmanlike conduct, and this thing could get nasty. As for the actual game, well, I would have liked Utah most of the year, but the Utes limped into the postseason and haven’t looked good since October. BYU has been really banged up, but I don’t know how much that will matter once the game kicks off. It’s a push, and I’ll ultimately take Utah, but I’ll probably regret it.

Watchability: 500 million. Are you kidding? This is going to be a disaster. The AD’s are already writing their letters of condemnation in regards to the post-game brawl.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

Ohio (8-4) vs. Appalachian State (10-2)

December, 19, 2:30 p.m.

Ah, yes. Appalachian State, the once and future king of the hearts of college football fans (except in Ann Arbor), making its bowl debut. The Mountaineers went 10-2 this year, nearly winning the Sun Belt crown in their first season as full FBS members. Alas, I have to pick against them, as I fear their wins – nine of the 10 victories were blowouts – were compiled against the worst of competition. Ohio lost a few games but at least played a couple squads with a pulse, and knocked off MAC West champion NIU in the last game of the year (a game the Huskies needed to win). The Bobcats defense is pretty good, and I’ll take Ohio in a minor upset.

Watchability: 1. I thought about bumping it up, but a 2 would have been generous.

Autonation Cure Bowl

San Jose State (5-7) vs. Georgia State (6-6)

December 19, 4:00 p.m.

Woof. You thought the last game was bad. SJSU was one of the 5-7 teams the NCAA needed to fill the bowls, yet the Spartans are actually favored to beat the Panthers because of how bad GSU was this season. To recap: the team lost to not one but two FCS-level opponents (yes, Charlotte still counts), then won its final four games to finish at .500. The Panthers won five games in the Sun Belt. You can’t say much for SJSU, but at least the Spartans went a respectable 4-4 in Mountain West play. Yikes.

Watchability: Deserves, much, much lower than a 1.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Arkansas State (9-3) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-4)

December 19, 6:00 p.m.

A couple of solid offenses here that should have no problem scoring. Arkansas State did what Arkansas State does: flop around in non-conference play, then wreak havoc on the Sun Belt. LTU was a contender for the Conference USA’s West Division, but got smacked in the final game to eventual winner Southern Miss. I like the Bulldogs more overall, and LTU certainly played a tougher schedule. But Arky State has a pretty impressive offense and the decided quarterback edge with Fredi Knighten. It’s a toss-up, and I’ll go with… Louisiana Tech, after all.

Watchability: 3. Points will be scored.

Miami Beach Bowl

Western Kentucky (11-2) vs. South Florida (8-4)

December 21, 11:30 a.m.

South Florida was pretty good this year, and the American turned out a nice season as the top Group of Five conference. But Western Kentucky was on another level, at least offensively, as QB Brandon Doughty threw for 4,500 yards. I mentioned in the preseason that the Hilltoppers could be a decent candidate to go undefeated and bust the bowl system; they didn’t quite manage it, but they lived up to the hype. USF had a solid year, but I’m not trusting a team that lost to Maryland.

Watchability: 3, but only for WKU.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Akron (7-5) vs. Utah State (6-6)

December 22, 12:30 p.m.

This is a really tough one to call. I like Utah State. The Aggies played a more difficult schedule, but are severely banged-up and weren’t very consistent on offense or defense this year. Akron has the added motivation of going for its first bowl win ever. USU has the benefit of playing close to home. Neither offense is particularly scary. In the end, I’m going with the Aggies, who were battle-tested against the best the Mountain West had to offer. The Zips missed three of the best four teams from the MAC West.

Watchability: 1. It might be a competitive game, but there’s little to be excited about.

Marmot Boca Raton Bowl

Temple (10-3) vs. Toledo (9-2)

December 22, 4:00 p.m.

Finally, a quality matchup. These were two of the best non-power conference schools in 2015, each notching an upset of a Power Five team. Temple knocked off Penn State in its opener, while Toledo took out Arkansas after the Rockets’ first game was cancelled due to inclement weather. It appeared for a time that both could be in line for a New Year’s Six bowl, or even something greater, before a couple of ill-timed losses ended those dreams. The Owls’ resume is more than respectable, as their three losses came to teams with a combined 30 wins. Toledo was the best team in its division and should have won the MAC West, but a pair of five-point losses doomed the Rockets. This is another very close game to call, with two very nice college QB’s. I have to go with Temple because of the defense, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Toledo win.

Watchability: 4. This is about as good as it gets between two Group of Five schools.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Boise State (8-4) vs. Northern Illinois (8-5)

December 23, 1:30 p.m.

This is a pretty easy one to pick. Boise State was a disappointment this year, but two of the Broncos’ losses were gigantic upsets, including the eight-turnover fiasco against Utah State. For all their issues and inconsistency, the Broncos were still pretty good. NIU got hot late, but the Huskies were thoroughly outclassed by Bowling Green in the MAC title game. BSU has more talent on its roster than the Falcons and will be looking ahead to prove itself for next year’s preseason polls.

Watchability: 2. The teams are decent but there’s not a lot of star power.

Godaddy Bowl

Georgia Southern (8-4) vs. Bowling Green (10-3)

December 23, 5:00 p.m.

For the second straight season, Georgia Southern proved it could play in the FBS. However, that won’t mean much against a buzz saw like BGSU. The Falcons romped through the majority of their schedule and led the nation in passing. The Eagles led the nation in rushing behind a triple-option attack. You won’t find a bigger clash of styles anywhere. The caveat is that BGSU has now lost its coach, and teams without coaches are always unpredictable. Still, I think there’s enough of a talent gap for the Falcons to win without issue.

Watchability: 3. The contrast in styles will be very interesting to see.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl

Middle Tennessee (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (7-5)

December 24, 9:00 a.m.

Both squads went 6-2 in conference play, but outside of WMU’s upset of Toledo in the finale, neither beat anyone on note. That result alone makes me lean toward the Broncos, though WMU’s better offensive balance also strikes a chord. MTSU’s leading rusher on the year had 468 yards. Both teams are set at QB and the rushing disparity indicates the Broncos are the smarter pick. The Blue Raiders didn’t set the Conference USA on fire, so Western is a pretty obvious choice.

Watchability: 1. I thought about a 2, but I’d have been lying to myself.

Hawai’i Bowl

San Diego State (10-3) vs. Cincinnati (7-5)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

I thought about going with Cincy and the upset here, I really did. Though SDSU’s nine-game winning streak and Mountain West title are impressive, the Aztecs were shown the door early in their two games against Power Five Competition. The Bearcats boast a talented passer in Gunner Kiel and played an ambitious first-half schedule against Temple, Memphis, Miami (FL) and BYU. Cincy also nearly beat AAC champ Houston. However, in the end, it comes down to defense, which the Aztecs (10^th in points allowed) play and the Bearcats don’t. Cincy’s strategy all year has been to try and outscore people; sometimes it’s worked, sometimes it hasn’t. Playing much closer to home – in a stadium they routinely see, no less – and with the backing of a great D, it’s hard to go against the Aztecs.

Watchability: 3. A moderately tolerable viewing seems in order.

That’s it for the first week of bowl season. Week Two is generally when things ramp up, and this year is no different: there are twice as many games (24) between next Saturday and the following Friday.

Mason Rudolph wins the 2015 Stanzi Award

For a few bizarre minutes Saturday, it seemed we might have chaos. Florida held an unlikely early lead on Alabama after a punt return touchdown, while North Carolina refused to go away against Clemson. Had the top two teams in the committee’s rankings gone down, we could have been in for a very strange final four.

But, as is the case more often than not in college football, the powers that be prevailed. Alabama reasserted itself after a sluggish first half to knock out the Gators. Clemson held on after a bad offside call on North Carolina’s final onside kick. Michigan State restored sanity after allowing a long TD pass against Iowa, and just like that, the Playoff was set.

I don’t necessarily think these are the four best teams in the country, but they are the most deserving. All four are Power Conference champions, which is the most important factor, and this season there will be no controversy over who got left out. Stanford, even at 11-2, wasn’t good enough.

The regular season technically isn’t over – there’s still the matter of that Army – Navy game – but we’ve essentially reached the postseason. And for the record, Navy is very good, and should pick up a 10^th win this weekend. But let’s take an early look at the Playoff.

College Football Playoff

It isn’t in the exact order I would have liked (how Alabama maintained that No. 2 spot is beyond me) but the teams are as I predicted last week: Clemson, Alabama, Michigan State and Oklahoma. Clemson, as the obvious top seed, gets Oklahoma in the Orange Bowl, while the Crimson Tide and Spartans meet in the Cotton Bowl.

OU opened as a favorite to upset Clemson; that’s my early feeling too. I like the Sooners to beat the Tigers and go on to win the National Championship over Alabama, though I’ll delve much deeper into those games in my upcoming bowl preview series. Oklahoma has simply been too good over the second half of the year to pick against.

Pac-12 Report

Stanford, as it so often does, struggled to put away a lesser opponent in USC. However, as Stanford also often does, it found a way. After squandering a potential 28-0 first-half lead on a pair of field goals and a turnover on downs inside the Trojans’ five, the Cardinal led only 13-3 at the break. At that point, SC woke up and scored two quick TD’s to take a three-point lead.

Ah, but of course, we were dealing with Stanford, which plays the long game better than any team in the country. On the verge of a devastating three-and-out after USC took the lead for the first time, the Cardinal cooked up one of their signature escapes, with Kevin Hogan finding Christian McCaffrey on a nifty angle route out of the backfield for 67 yards. Moments after Stanford took the lead back, it got another score, this time from the defense’s signature play: a sack-and-fumble.

The game wasn’t completely out of reach, but the contest essentially ended with that stretch in the middle of the third quarter. As such, Stanford was crowned the 2015 Pac-12 champ; not the best team in the conference by any reasonable measure, but the best this season at dealing with adversity.

Heisman Watch

The disappointing list of Heisman finalists has been announced, with the nation’s most deserving player left out of New York entirely. I covered in-depth last week why Alabama’s Derrick Henry should not win the award, so I won’t re-hash that argument. I agree with the other two finalists, although I wouldn’t give the award to DeShaun Watson or Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey simply didn’t have enough of an impact in Stanford’s two losses to justify winning the award, and his high yardage total is dramatically inflated by kick and punt returns. In a battle between the two most deserving quarterbacks Oklahoma’s Baker Mayfield is the obvious choice over Clemson’s Watson.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It’s probably only a matter of time before the Playoff expands to eight teams (though I pray it will stop there). However, in certain years – most, I would argue – only four teams are deserving of inclusion. 2014 was a bit of an anomaly, as Baylor, TCU and Michigan State would have all been worthy entrants in an eight-team field. That isn’t the case this year. Stanford owes its 2015 Pac-12 title to injury (Oregon) and officiating (Washington State), and isn’t deserving of a shot at the National Championship. No mid-major school went undefeated and Notre Dame had two losses as well. The only other team that could have had a chance was Ohio State, but after the Buckeyes’ mediocre performance against a middling (at best) schedule this season, there’s no way they should have been in.

The truth is that while there may sometimes be five or even six teams deserving of the Playoff, there will rarely be a full eight. Preeminent college football analyst Phil Steele has long called for a four-team playoff, arguing that at eight teams, the field will inevitably be muddied by a 9-3 or 8-4 conference champion or even a better squad that failed to win its conference. Conference championships should be a prerequisite for Playoff consideration; failing to include that criteria already increases the danger that the committee’s regional bias (see Alabama at No. 2) will result in incorrect selections. Expanding the playoff could be a fatal mistake for college football. While it is cliché, it’s also the truth: college football has the best regular season of any sport, because of just how important each game is. Playoff expansion could and would water down that special aura around the sport.

2015 Stanzi Awards

  

There was only one winner this week, thanks to the light schedule, and it didn’t have an impact on the Stanzi race.

Earnest Carrington, Louisiana-Monroe

Opponent: New Mexico State

Performance: Two INT, one FUM (for TD), won by seven

Much more important is the crowning of this year’s Stanzi winner! As a reminder, here are the finalists:

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Treon Harris, Florida: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 2

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Kyle Bolin, Louisville: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 2

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 2

Marquise Williams, North Carolina: 2

Rudolph and Harris are neck-and-neck with three Stanzis apiece, so we have to delve into their individual performances to determine a winner. In a bizarre bit of trivia, both players turned in all three Stanzi weeks consecutively, with Rudolph going for eight total turnovers against Texas, K-State and West Virginia and Harris turning in six turnovers against Vandy, South Carolina and Florida Atlantic. Both players had one turnover returned for a score. Harris’ performances were slightly better, but Rudolph’s came against better competition.

I went back and forth on these two. It’s pretty hard to go against Harris, who was dreadful after taking over midseason for the Gators. And yet, the thing that finally swung the debate was Rudolph. He’s a much better player and had no business picking up three Stanzis, let alone three in three weeks. So there we have it. Introducing the 2015 winner of the Stanzi Award: Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph!

What a season it’s been. Hard to believe the Playoff is set; it seems just yesterday the preseason polls were coming out. It was a strange and wonderful year, and now we get the magic of the FBS postseason. My bowl preview series will be out shortly.