The Bowlster Wonderful Week of the Year

I started a delightful 5-1 in my bowl predictions but fell to 6-4 before recovering to finish 8-4. Week Two is the giant overload of bowls, so here’s where I have to make the most of my picks. All predictions are in Pacific time and on a 1-5 scale of watchability.

St. Petersburg Bowl

Connecticut (6-6) vs. Marshall (9-3)

December 26, 8:00 a.m.

Let’s be real. UConn is only here because the Huskies got to play Houston with a backup QB while the Cougars turned the ball over five times. This is not a good team. Marshall, on the other hand, is actually pretty good. The Thundering Herd got K.O.’d in the last game of the year against Western Kentucky, but other than that it was a very solid year. The Herd have a nicely balanced offense and a quietly powerful D. This is an easy one.

Watchability: 1. No marquee guys and UConn shouldn’t be in a bowl.

Hyundai Sun Bowl

Miami (FL) vs. Washington State (8-4)

December 26, 11:00 a.m.

This is a little tougher of a pick. Wazzu had an odd year, losing at least games it shouldn’t have but winning at least one it didn’t deserve. Miami’s season was less confusing; the Hurricanes largely beat their bad opponents and lost to the good ones. Both are programs on the rise after long dormant periods, with promising young quarterbacks. The Cougars were a little more consistent, so I give a slight edge to WSU.

Watchability: 3. This might be a big stepping stone for next season.

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Washington (6-6) vs. Southern Miss (9-4)

December 26, 11:20 a.m.

On paper, Southern Miss looks like the stronger squad. At 9-4, the Golden Eagles won the Conference USA’s West Division and finished as the league’s runner-up after a strong showing against Western Kentucky. Outside of the upset of USC, Washington didn’t really beat anyone that notable. But that perspective belies the difficulty of UW’s Pac-12 schedule, as well as its respectable showings in losses to Boise State and Oregon and massive injury issues. The Huskies still cobbled together one of the nation’s best defenses, and are correctly favored in this matchup.

Watchability: 2. Washington might be good next year, so now’s the time to hop on the bandwagon.

New Era Pinstripe Bowl

Indiana (6-6) vs. Duke (7-5)

December 26, 12:30 p.m.

Indiana came up tantalizingly short versus Ohio State and Iowa, but defense remains a major issue for the Hoosiers, who allowed more points than they scored. Duke started 6-1 but lost four straight to tumble out of contention. The Blue Devils have a better defense, but I’m going with Indiana, which had a better year than the record might indicate. I love the Hoosiers offensive trio of QB Nate Sudfeld, running back Jordan Howard and receiver Simmie Cobbs, Jr. Should a shootout.

Watchability: 3. There will be some scoring.

Camping World Independence Bowl

Tulsa (6-6) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

December 26, 2:45 p.m.

Given the choice between a pair of .500 teams that hail from a power conference and a mid-major, I’ll almost always go with the Power Five one. I had to put that belief to test here, because I just don’t think Virginia Tech is very good. The Hokies are tepid on offense, as always, and their defense, while good, is nowhere near the fearsome units of years past. Tulsa gives up a ton of points but features an explosive attack led by QB Dane Evans, who will cross the 4,000-yard mark in this game. But the big rub is the retirement of longtime Tech coach Frank Beamer, the last of the old guard coaches. The Hokies are expected to come out in force for Beamer, and I can’t argue against the emotion on that sideline.

Watchability: 2, and only for Beamer’s farewell.

Foster Farms Bowl

UCLA (8-4) vs. Nebraska (5-7)

December 26, 6:15 p.m.

Nebraska is the second of the awful 5-7 teams that got bowl invites this year after there weren’t enough teams to qualify. The Cornhuskers had a trying first season under Mike Riley, with their seven losses coming by a combined 31 points. UCLA, as usual, was overhyped in the preseason and failed to live up to expectations, losing to every reasonably good team on its schedule. Still, the Bruins are demonstrably better, and the game is being played in California, for crying out loud. UCLA had better win this one.

Watchability: 2, if only to see the Bruins squirm when Nebraska ties the game in the fourth.

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman

Pittsburgh (8-4) vs. Navy (10-2)

December 28, 11:30 a.m.

This is a tough one to call, as Pitt has the kind of defense that could give the Navy option some problems after a several-week layoff. The Panthers got a lot of love this year for their close losses, but beat nobody of substance. Navy was marvelous from Week One and actually boasts a better D than Pitt. The Midshipmen have their work cut out, but I think a low-scoring Navy win is in order.

Watchability: 3. It won’t be a shootout, but these teams are decent.

Quick Lane Bowl

Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Minnesota (5-7)

December 28, 2:00 p.m.

Minnesota is a special sort of 5-7 case that actually deserves a bowl. The Golden Gophers should have beat Iowa, TCU and Michigan, so this isn’t some charity invite. CMU does have a great QB in Cooper Rush, but the Chippewas were actually somewhat disappointing offensively this season. I like Minnesota in this one, despite the Gophers’ near-total lack of firepower.

Watchability: 1. No no no.

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

California (7-5) vs. Air Force (8-5)

December 29, 11:00 a.m.

Cal continues to struggle defensively under Sonny Dykes, but 2015 was a breakthrough season of sorts for the Golden Bears. The offense finally came together consistently, while the D improved just enough to hold off a couple of foes. Air Force was one of the better mid-majors this season, nearly knocking off San Diego State in the Mountain West Final. I like the Falcons, but this is a Pac-12 opponent we’re talking about. Cal should win, provided it isn’t one of those patented Air Raid breakdown games.

Watchability: 2. Probably should be higher, but neither team is exactly a draw.

Russell Athletic Bowl

North Carolina (11-2) vs. Baylor (9-3)

December 29, 2:30 p.m.

Here we go! Finally, two ranked teams. UNC is the clear pick here, though that might not be the case were Baylor not playing with backups at QB, RB, and WR. I just don’t see how the Bears hold up – or keep up – in that scenario. The Tar Heels were a bit a faux contender all year, but QB Marquise Williams is solid and UNC was very balanced. Baylor faced its toughest four opponents in its final four games – and went 1-3. UNC will win, and Baylor fans will hopefully quiet down forever until the team wins a meaningful game.

Watchability: 4. It will be interesting to see how the Bears scrap together an offense.

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

Nevada (6-6) vs. Colorado State (7-5)

December 29, 4:30 p.m.

An extremely odd matchup of two teams from the same conference. Nevada and CSU didn’t play in the regular season, so at least this isn’t a rematch. The Wolf Pack were up and down all year but did face an ambitious non-conference schedule against Arizona and Texas A&M. Colorado State was the better, more consistent squad, and more importantly did it in a tougher division featuring Boise State and Air Force, teams Nevada missed. The Rams are the pick.

Watchability: 1. This is a weird game.

Advocare V100 Texas Bowl

LSU (8-3) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

December 29, 6:00 p.m.

Look, LSU wasn’t all that good this year. The Tigers got blown out three straight times after beating nobody in their first seven games. But I still expect they’ll have enough to put away the Red Raiders, to whom defense is an abstract, foreign concept. Tech loves to throw it all over the place, and it’s pretty good at it. But it’s tough to win when you never run and can’t play D, and LSU’s plodding attack should be able to slow the game down enough to get the victory.

Watchability: 3, because Leonard Fournette is involved.

Birmingham Bowl

Auburn (6-6) vs. Memphis (9-3)

December 30, 9:00 a.m.

Let me get this straight. Auburn was terrible this year, no? The Tigers went 6-6, with two wins in SEC play, one of which was against Kentucky. They should have lost to FCS foe Jacksonville State. Memphis went 9-3 and beat Ole Miss, Auburn’s conference mate, who in turn defeated Auburn. And the Tigers are favored in this game? I get that Memphis lost its coach to Virginia Tech, but I think the retention of the FBS’ most efficient passer – Paxton Lynch – will soften the blow. Memphis all the way.

Watchability: 3. Lynch might be the first QB taken in next year’s draft.

Belk Bowl

North Carolina State (7-5) vs. Mississippi State (8-4)

December 30, 12:30 p.m.

Neither of these teams was worth much this season, and neither beat anyone of note, with the exception of MSU’s upset of a hot Arkansas team in the penultimate game of the year. There are a couple of decent college QB’s here, with the Wolfpack’s Jacoby Brissett and the Bulldogs’s Dak Prescott, but overall neither offense is particularly exciting. This is the most middling of all the bowls. I’ll take Mississippi State.

Watchability: 1. That feels generous.

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Texas A&M (8-4) vs. Louisville (7-5)

December 30, 4:00 p.m.

Louisville was tremendously disappointing in 2015, but the same can be said for A&M. With not one but two high-profile QB’s transferring and Kevin Sumlin’s job in question, the smart money seems to be on Louisville. That’s a hard pick to make, given how uninspiring the Cardinals were. Texas A&M played in a better league, too. In the end, given the crazy amount of turmoil surrounding the Aggies, I have to go with Louisville.

Watchability: 2, because I have no idea what A&M is going to look like.

National Funding Holiday Bowl

USC (8-5) vs. Wisconsin (9-3)

December 30, 7:30 p.m.

USC should win this game handily, but I think at this point we all know how that goes. The Trojans were allegedly “hot” after firing Steve Sarkisian, upsetting Utah and beating three bad teams; Oregon laid waste to that idea, then Stanford drove a stake through it. The Trojans remain the ultimate underachievers. Wisconsin led the country in scoring defense and lost to Iowa close, but playing in the Big Ten West meant the Badgers faced absolutely no one. USC needs to and should win this game without issue… we’ll see if they prove it.

Watchability: 3. These teams are always good on the big stage.

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl

Houston (12-1) vs. Florida State (10-2)

December 31, 9:00 a.m.

FSU is favored for a reason, but don’t count the Cougars out. Houston would have been 13-0 if not for an untimely injury to QB Greg Ward, Jr. The Cougars largely romped through a very good AAC and played in the stronger West Division to boot. I like this team a lot. Florida State played exactly one good team all season (Clemson) and lost. And yet… the Seminoles defense is very, very good, and I expect they’ll be able to hold the dynamic Ward in check most of the game. With a rush-dominant attack led by RB Dalvin Cook able to control the clock, the ‘Noles will win.

Watchability: 5. Two talented teams with a lot on the line, reputation-wise.

Capital One Orange Bowl – CFP Semifinal

Oklahoma (11-1) vs. Clemson (13-0)

December 31, 1:00 p.m.

This is going to be fun. I’ve made my feelings about OU very clear: this is the best team in the country. QB Baker Mayfield should have won the Heisman and the Sooners are playing better than anyone right now. The offense is outrageous: balanced, explosive, powerful, efficient. The defense isn’t elite, but it’s as good or better than the Tigers’ while playing against a handful of Big 12 offenses that are all better than any Clemson saw in the ACC.

That doesn’t mean this will be easy. Clemson is also very good, and Deshaun Watson deserved to be in New York. The Tigers have earned a No. 1 ranking. But Watson’s weapons aren’t of the same caliber as Mayfield’s, and Clemson undoubtedly played an easier schedule than the Sooners. I expect points, but Oklahoma will prevail.

Watchability: 5. Two elite teams squaring off on New Year’s Eve.

Goodyear Cotton Bowl

Michigan State (12-1) vs. Alabama (12-1)

December 31, 5:00 p.m.

MSU is back where it believed it should have been last year. The question is, are the Spartans actually better than in 2014? I don’t think they are. The statistics back me up; MSU is averaging more than 100 yards per game fewer than it did last year on offense and about 50 more yards per game allowed on D. QB Connor Cook has improved, but he’s about the only thing that has. The biggest difference from last season is the Spartans got to play weaker Oregon and Ohio State teams that beat them in 2014. Is that a recipe to win a title?

Don’t despair, though. Alabama is weaker, too. The SEC got a lot worse in 2015, yet the Crimson Tide actually regressed offensively, returning to their plodding ground-based attack and throwing only as a complement after losing dual-threat QB Blake Sims and all-world receiver Amari Cooper. Of course, the defense remains elite, but as we saw in last year’s semifinal against Ohio State, that can’t always be relied upon. In the end, I see ‘Bama pulling out a low-scoring affair, but neither team is particularly inspiring.

Watchability: 5. Less scoring doesn’t always mean less interesting.

Outback Bowl

Northwestern (10-2) vs. Tennessee (8-4)

January 1, 9:00 a.m.

Northwestern started 5-0 with an upset of Stanford, but everyone knew that was a fluke. The Wildcats played only two more high-quality opponents the rest of the way (Michigan, Iowa) and lost both games. Tennessee blew three early games against Oklahoma, Florida and Arkansas; otherwise, the Volunteers would have played in the SEC Championship. As it is, they nearly upset Alabama. NU is a mess offensively, and while the Wildcats have a good scoring defense, that’s easy to accomplish when you’re facing terrible Big Ten offenses. I’ll take Tennessee.

Watchability: 3. For how high-profile a game this is, it’s not very enticing.

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

Michigan (9-3) vs. Florida (10-3)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

This is one of the easiest picks this postseason. Florida is a mess at QB, everyone knows it, and any above-average foe (see: FSU and Alabama in the last two games) can exploit it. Michigan is one of those teams. The Gators do play excellent defense, but hey, so do the Wolverines, and UM can actually score. Michigan wins, no problem.

Watchability: 2. Florida’s offense is really, really bad.

Battlefrog Fiesta Bowl

Notre Dame (10-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1)

January 1, 10:00 a.m.

This feels like a pretty easy call as well. Notre Dame had a nice season, adroitly adjusting to injuries across the board en route to a near-Playoff berth. But despite all the talent in South Bend, the truth is that Ohio State recruits better. The Buckeyes, even with all the underachieving, are stronger on offense, and they’re truly fearsome defensively. OSU has a lot to prove to the nation after sleepwalking through the regular season and I expect they’ll do so with aplomb.

Watchability: 4. There’s a lot of talent on this field.

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual

Stanford (11-2) vs. Iowa (12-1)

January 1, 2:00 p.m.

I run the risk, as usual, of getting burned here by Stanford. The Cardinal are the second-worst team in the country to count on as a favorite (trailing only grand champion Oklahoma), and typically don’t perform well in out-of-conference games. In fact, the last time Stanford beat a real Big Ten team – no, Maryland last year doesn’t count – was in 2012. But there’s a reason the Cardinal are favored. Iowa cakewalked to a 12-0 record by missing every quality team in the Big Ten. The Hawkeyes’ offense is mediocre and their defense only looked great because of the offenses it faced. Stanford should win.

Watchability: 4. There’s not a lot of spice, but it’s still the Rose Bowl.

Allstate Sugar Bowl

Oklahoma State (10-2) vs. Ole Miss (9-3)

January 1, 5:30 p.m.

This is a tough one to call, as both teams are overrated. Oklahoma State tosses the ball around everywhere but doesn’t play defense. Ole Miss got a fluke upset of Alabama but was otherwise exposed by Florida and Memphis. I expect both sides to score a fair amount, but it’s a total toss-up. In the end, I like how the Rebels ended the season (two wins to the Cowboys two losses) and the fact that they went out and played Memphis when they didn’t have to do so. OSU had a few close calls with bad opponents (Texas, K-State) and probably was lucky to get to 10 wins.

Watchability: 4, more for the potential scoring than the quality of the teams.

Bowl Week Two is packed to the brim and couldn’t be more exciting! Let’s continue this holiday fun in style.