Coast to Coast Coverage

The heart of college football lies in its fascinating conference races. More than three-quarters of a team’s schedule can involve a league opponent, and it’s the history the conferences build that gives the sport its gravitas. The most intense rivalries in American sports are all in college football, mostly contained within sectional or conference ties. Before the advent of the BCS, winning a conference championship was the ultimate goal. When bowls were viewed as exhibition-like bonuses to a quality season, a league title was all that mattered.

Clearly, those days are behind us. For better or worse, what matters now is National Championships. Look at Oregon, for goodness’ sake. The Ducks are the second-winningest team of the decade with a 69-12 record and have played for two titles, but a large part of the country views them as frauds. When only one team can succeed and everyone else is a failure it creates an unhealthy dynamic, but that’s where we’re at now. With Power Five conference champions competing for Playoff bids, the stakes are higher than they’ve ever been.

2016 promises some of the tightest league races in memory. The SEC East is at least a three-team battle. Ditto for the ACC Coastal. The championship game-less Big 12 is a marathon. The AAC is, as usual, an utter mystery. And the Pac-12, with its glut of quality teams but no real favorite, could be insane. I’ll get into the Pac-12 in greater detail tomorrow, as today’s post deals with the other nine conference races and some tentative predictions.

AAC

Projected Champion: Houston over Temple

In the West, Houston is the clear favorite after a 7-1 record and conference championship a year ago. Navy, which also went 7-1, is a contender, but the Midshipmen lose all-time great quarterback Keenan Reynolds and will probably take a step back. Memphis had a semi-dream season in 2015, starting 8-0 and notching an upset of Ole Miss, but the Tigers lost their next three AAC matches and the bowl along with QB Paxton Lynch and coach Justin Fuente. Houston, Navy and Memphis should make up the upper class of the division, but watch out for Tulsa, which returns seven starters on both sides of the ball, including a very good QB in Dane Evans. SMU and Tulane are probably afterthoughts this season.

The East is tougher to call. Perennial contender Cincinnati and trendy USF have gotten most of the preseason love, but I favor Temple, which won the division last year and returns QB P.J. Walker along with the makings of another great defense. Cincy is in good shape defensively as well, with eight returning starters, but the Bearcats lose both their leading rusher and their top SIX receivers. It might take time for the offense to get going, time Cincy doesn’t have given a Week Three date with Houston. USF went 7-1 down the stretch last season and returns 93 percent of its offense, so there’s reason for excitement. However, the O-line is a question mark, and the Bulls must play at Cincinnati and Temple. The Owls, by the way, host both the other two schools and also miss Houston from the West. Connecticut and East Carolina make up the division’s middle class, with winless UCF bringing up the rear.

ACC

Projected Champion: Florida State over North Carolina

I was leaning Clemson for a while, but now I’m firmly on board the FSU bandwagon. Once again, though, the real title game will be played between Clemson and Florida State. The victor will almost certainly win the league. It’s a very close call, and I can definitely see Clemson winning, but I favor the Seminoles’ stacked roster over Clemson’s rebuilt defense and potential hangover season. Louisville is the only other competent team in the Atlantic, with Boston College, North Carolina State, Wake Forest and Syracuse providing cannon fodder for the Big Two.

The Coastal is a tiny bit more intriguing, as reigning champ North Carolina and upstart Miami (FL) should face a better challenge from a stronger bottom-of-division brigade that includes Virginia, Duke and Georgia Tech. In the middle, Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech could surprise, especially with Tech missing FSU, Clemson AND Louisville from the Atlantic. Miami returns 15 total starters and should be hungry with the advent of the Mark Richt era, but I think the Hurricanes will be done in by a brutal October schedule. The Canes open ACC play on the road at Georgia Tech, host FSU and UNC back-to-back, then jump out for a Thursday night contest on the road at Virginia Tech just five days later (no bye week?!) before taking on Notre Dame in South Bend to end the month. The Tar Heels could easily lose to both FSU and Miami on the road early but comfortably win the division as the Canes wear down at the end of the year.

Big 12

Projected Champion: Oklahoma

As the only Power Five league without a championship game (for now), the Big 12 has to do a lot in non-conference play and within its own borders to gain some clout. The Baylor scandal this offseason didn’t do much to help on the field either, as the Bears would have been one of the league’s favorites. Now Oklahoma appears to be the lone hope once again, and the Sooners’ early matchups with Houston and Ohio State could knock out the Big 12 out of Playoff contention before conference play even gets going.

With that said, OU was playing tremendous ball in the second half of 2015 before the collapse against Clemson in the Orange Bowl and has one of the nation’s finest QB’s in Baker Mayfield. TCU has a lot of pieces on defense but lost QB Trevone Boykin and WR Josh Doctson, Baylor returns just one starting lineman (offense and defense) and Texas, while talented and on the rise, probably isn’t ready yet. That makes the Big 12 the Sooners’ to lose, even with a strong middle class lurking in the form of Oklahoma State, Kansas State and the Longhorns. I don’t see the remainder of the league – West Virginia, Texas Tech, Kansas and Iowa State – making much noise.

Big Ten

Projected Champion: Ohio State over Iowa

The Big Ten is another lopsided major conference, with its top three teams all residing in the East. Ohio State is the obvious pick but will face a stiff challenge from the Michigan schools. The Buckeyes clearly got lazy last year and will be hungrier after thinking they could just sleepwalk through their 2015 schedule. J.T. Barrett will resume his rightful role as steward of the offense, and even a lack of returning starters (just three on each side) shouldn’t make too much a difference. Michigan will provide a stiff test, but I think the Wolverines are still a year – and a quality QB – away, and MSU is naturally going to struggle a little in replacing all-time leading passer Connor Cook. Penn State won’t be a pushover, but that’s not the case for Maryland, Rutgers or Indiana.

Outside of the Big Three, the Big Ten doesn’t have much. Iowa’s unbeaten 2015 regular season was a joke, as the Hawkeyes missed the top four teams out of the East in the final year of the Big Ten’s eight-game conference schedule. Nebraska, Wisconsin and Northwestern are all decent, but none of those top four West schools have a hope of beating the Buckeyes in a potential Big Ten Championship. Minnesota could surprise, given that the Golden Gophers are the lucky squad to miss the Big Three this year, although the season-ending gauntlet of division rivals Nebraska (away), Northwestern (home) and Wisconsin (away) might be a bit much to handle. Illinois and Purdue are, once again, irrelevant.

Conference USA

Projected Champion: Marshall over Southern Miss

Marshall lost a ton last year, including all-time leading passer Rakeem Cato, and still nearly repeated as East champs. I’m calling for them to get back there this season, thanks to an experienced defense, a solid O-line and an improved season from QB Chase Litton, who was very good last season as a freshman. Middle Tennessee will have something to say about that after three consecutive second-place East finishes and a school-record offense in 2015, while defending champ Western Kentucky could still be a factor despite losing the school’s career passing leader in Brandon Doughty. Florida Atlantic and Florida International probably won’t be much of a threat and FBS newcomers Old Dominion and Charlotte are still too weak.

QB Nick Mullens is what makes Southern Miss the easy choice out West. He’ll be the Golden Eagles’ all-time leading passer by season’s end, and he’s joined by enough returners to make this squad the division favorite by a good margin. Louisiana Tech is no pushover, but the Bulldogs have to break in a new QB, as do Rice and UTEP. UTSA and North Texas don’t have much to offer, as the four Texas schools in the division figure to all play catch-up to Southern and LTU. The schedule further tips the balance in favor of the Golden Eagles, as the Bulldogs draw WKU and MTSU out of the East and have to travel to USM, which has a cupcake-soft early slate that should result in a 6-0 start.

MAC

Projected Champion: Western Michigan over Bowling Green

First things first: the MAC is back to an even 12 teams! Thank goodness. No one knew what Massachusetts was doing in this conference, not even UMass. I’ve got a soft spot for the MAC, which routinely produces some the best – and most unexpected – mid-major teams. The conference’s West division will once again see a thrilling race, with WMU, CMU, Toledo and Northern Illinois all vying for the top spot. A case can be made for all four. Western has a great QB in Zach Terrell, a solid offense around him and hosts host NIU and Toledo. Central counters with a quality passer of its own (Cooper Rush), returns eight starters on both sides and hosts WMU. Toledo, which routinely posts one of the league’s top offenses, has a ton of talent there again and hosts CMU. And then there’s NIU, which has won the West six consecutive years and plays both CMU and Toledo in Illinois. The winner could be any of the four.

The East isn’t nearly as fun. Bowling Green doesn’t get that much back, but I still like the Falcons to win the division for the fourth straight year. The competition just isn’t of the same quality here; Ohio and Akron are the most formidable challengers to BGSU, and that’s not saying much, as the Falcons haven’t lost a single game in their own division in three full seasons. Bowling Green does have to play both the Bobcats and Zips on the road, but I remain unconvinced. Buffalo, Kent State and Miami (OH) round out the bottom half of the division.

Mountain West

Projected Champion: Boise State over San Diego State

Air Force, winner of two straight against the Broncos, will have some input in the final equation, but this is honestly a two-team race. BSU had a couple of uncharacteristic flops last season to finish 9-4 and should be hungry to prove that was a fluke. Outside of the Falcons, there’s no one in the Mountain Division with the talent to handle Boise. Utah State and New Mexico both upset BSU in 2015, but the Broncos had a 60-26 combined edge in first downs in those contests, losing only because they committed a whopping 12 turnovers. Colorado State and Wyoming don’t figure to be much of a threat, which should make this a fairly easy divisional title for Boise State.

It’s a similar situation in the West, where San Diego State should repeat as division champ after a dream season that saw an undefeated run through the conference schedule (and ensuing title game), capped by a bowl blowout over Cincinnati. The Aztecs return seven starters on both sides, including all-important RB Donnel Pumphrey, and miss Boise State and Air Force from the Mountain. Nevada, seemingly stuck at seven wins in recent years (four of the past five seasons), will offer the most resistance to another SDSU coronation. The Wolf Pack and San Jose State should make up the division’s second tier, while UNLV, Fresno State and Hawai’i will probably all be pretty bad in 2016.

SEC

Projected Champion: Alabama over Tennessee

For brevity’s sake and to avoid repeating my previous post, I’ll skim the West quickly. Alabama is the runaway favorite, even in the nation’s most powerful single division, surrounded on all sides by vicious rivals like LSU, Ole Miss and Auburn. Ultimately, none of those teams has enough to top the Crimson Tide by season’s end. LSU has the RB but not the passer, Ole Miss has the QB but not the defense, and Auburn… is one of the most unpredictable programs in the country. Texas A&M and Arkansas are wild cards, but not capable of unseating Bama. Mississippi State will bring up the rear. Rinse and repeat.

The East is far more interesting, with an up-and-coming Tennessee team that figures to see a strong challenge from similarly-talented Florida and Georgia squads. Georgia has the best cross-division draw (at Ole Miss, hosting Auburn) and doesn’t have to play the other East contenders on the road, hosting UT and getting Florida in Jacksonville. The Volunteers and Gators both have a near-guaranteed cross-division loss (Alabama and LSU, respectively). In an unfortunate turn, they also both have to travel to play their additional West opponent (at A&M for UT, at Arkansas for UF) in games that otherwise would probably be marked downs as wins. I still favor the Vols, with their superior QB situation, but Tennessee also has a pretty tepid group of skill players for a team this talented. The rest of the East – Missouri, Kentucky, South Carolina and Vanderbilt – is unlikely to notch more than an occasional upset.

Sun Belt

Projected Champion: Arkansas State AND Appalachian State

The Sun Belt has a problem. It’s all fine and good to be the worst FBS conference, but an 11-team league that only plays eight conference games (a la the old Big Ten) is going to create tiebreaking issues for itself when the two best teams don’t play. Arkansas State and Appalachian State are predicted to be the twin towers of the SBC this year, but they don’t meet. Fortunately, both squads do play the consensus third-ranked team, Georgia Southern, so there’s an opportunity for a champion to actually be decided on the field. However, in the interest of seeing the SBC brass sweat, I’m calling for the Red Wolves and Mountaineers to both go 8-0 and share the conference crown.

The bottom of the conference, composed of Texas State, New Mexico State, Louisiana-Monroe and future FCS member Idaho, includes some of the worst teams in the country. The suffering of those schools should aid the victory-total-padding of the upper and middle classes of the league. The latter group – Troy, Louisiana-Lafayette, South Alabama and Georgia State – is a largely anonymous group with varying degrees of potential, but the Sun Belt can be unpredictable, so watch out for at least one to make a surprising run.

The 2016 conference races ought to be delightful, with a lot of turnover nationally setting the stage for one of our wildest seasons in memory. Other than Alabama’s seeming lock on a Playoff spot, this thing is wide open. Tomorrow will bring my in-depth Pac-12 preview and final thoughts on the opening of the new season.