Tiger, Tiger, Burning Bright

Finally, some clarity. We lost five unbeaten teams this week, starting with Toledo on Tuesday night and continuing through TCU’s blowout to Oklahoma State, Michigan State’s stunning loss to Nebraska, Memphis’ rough outing versus Navy and LSU’s ugly showing against Alabama. It was an elimination weekend, and the true contenders delivered.

It wasn’t shocking to see LSU go down; the Tigers’ offense outside of running back Leonard Fournette is pitiful. Alabama is in the driver’s seat in the SEC, again, after Ole Miss couldn’t defend a fourth-and-25 and lost to Arkansas in overtime. The Rebels’ defense on that fateful play – which cost them a shot at a conference title – will go down in the annals of the worst plays in history.

Michigan State’s loss, on the other hand, was more surprising. Nebraska had been pretty bad all season and trailed by 12 with two minutes to play, only to complete a miraculous rally thanks to a horrible uncalled illegal touching on the deciding touchdown pass. MSU had been playing with fire all year, though, and really should have lost to both Oregon and Michigan. This loss evens things out.

TCU got clocked just like LSU, but that result was a little stunning. It’s not that Oklahoma State isn’t good. The Cowboys were undefeated, after all. It’s the nature of the loss that surprised, as OSU rolled to a 35-9 lead as Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin threw four picks. Now, the final is misleading, which I’ll get into a little later. But it’s time to start taking Okie State seriously.

As great as this past weekend was, it seems we’ve got another awful slate ahead in Week 11. Memphis – Houston was going to be a massive showdown of unbeatens, until the Tigers went ahead and got crushed by Navy’s option (not that it won’t still be a quality contest). Oregon is at Stanford, but the Cardinal will be heavily favored, and that game has lost most of its preseason luster. Baylor finally plays someone (Oklahoma), but with a backup now at QB I’m taking the Sooners. There just aren’t many great matchups, which is highly disappointing this deep into the year.

Playoff Poll

It seems Clemson was the right choice at no. 1. Even though the Tigers didn’t really blow anyone away with a so-so win against a QB-less Florida State team, their collective performance in recent weeks has them trending up. Ohio State was, once again, underwhelming.

First Tier

Clemson

Ohio State

Alabama

Oklahoma State

Alabama took out LSU with extreme prejudice, showing that this is probably the nation’s most talented team for seemingly the millionth year in a row. Oklahoma State is not one of the best four teams in the country, but the resume right now deserves Playoff inclusion.

Second Tier

Stanford

Baylor

Notre Dame

TCU

Until the Bears play a team with a pulse, they’re not going anywhere. TCU stays high because, despite the embarrassing loss, the Horned Frogs will still (likely) be in if they win out.

Third Tier

Florida

LSU

Oklahoma

Houston

The Gators, Tigers and Sooners all have one loss and are unlikely to run the table the rest of the way or win their leagues. They have an outside shot, but need a few breaks. The same applies for undefeated Houston.

Pac-12 Report

Oh, Washington State. That Stanford loss really stings now. By thoroughly outclassing Arizona State, the Cougars became bowl-eligible and took another step toward a division title – a title they should have been able to essentially clinch with a win this weekend at UCLA. Instead, the Cougs will have to hope Oregon or Cal can knock off the Cardinal.

Stanford and UCLA both dominated weak competition, while USC managed to bumble its way to a win over previously hapless Arizona. Oregon pulled away from Cal late, sending the Bears to their fourth straight defeat, and Utah got tremendously lucky to come away with a win over Washington.

It’s become clear that Utah simply isn’t an elite team, regardless of what the record indicates. UW dominated that game up and down the field, only losing because of a comedy of errors that handed the Utes great field position and free TD’s. With Arizona and Colorado left on the schedule, I don’t see Utah losing more than once, but that game against UCLA is looking more and more like a loss. The Utes have been way too erratic to trust any longer.

This Friday, Colorado gets one last chance at bowl eligibility against USC, though sadly it’s a long shot. Washington is at ASU for a matchup of teams that probably both rightfully believe their season records belie their quality. Both sit at 4-5 and 2-4 in conference play, but the Sun Devils could easily have six wins, while Washington could have seven.

The mid-afternoon contest is the one that’s decided the Pac-12 for the past five seasons, though it seems unlikely to do so a sixth time. Stanford is favored by 10 over Oregon at home, which is reasonable. The Cardinal have been on a tear since the opening loss to Northwestern, with the lone exception the WSU game they really should have lost. Oregon has started to round into form with the return of several missing starters, so this figures to be a decent game. It wouldn’t shock me if the Ducks got a win; the UO offense has been very impressive of late, and Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has never been particularly trustworthy.

We end with a bizarre triumvirate of late games, starting with Utah at Arizona. The Utes are due for a fall, no doubt, but it seems unlikely to come against the Wildcats… at least, that would have been true, until ‘Zona nearly knocked off USC – the team that throttled Utah two weeks ago – last weekend. Not sure what to make of this one, but I think Utah should win.

Next is Oregon State at Cal, and while Beavers fans are probably dreaming of getting that one elusive conference victory, it’s not going to happen. The Bears are steaming, losers of four straight, and know they need this game to ensure a postseason appearance given that Stanford and ASU are still on the docket. OSU will score more than usual thanks to the ugly Cal D, but this is going to be a loss as well.

Finally, the nightcap: Washington State at UCLA. When did Wazzu become must-see television? Each of the Cougars’ last few games has been an absolute crackerjack, and this one figures to be no different. I’m not sure what the Bruins have done that’s so impressive to the pollsters; the only win over a squad with a winning record came out of conference in a fortunate decision over BYU, while UCLA was smacked around by both ASU and Stanford. Well, no matter. This is a show-me game for both schools, with the winner taking home a ranking.

Heisman Watch

Our Heisman nightmare scenario came to fruition Saturday, when Alabama correctly discerned that LSU had no quality offensive players other than RB Leonard Fournette and played defense accordingly. The resulting bad game from Fournette opens the door for a number of other players, though it seems silly given how much better he is than the competition.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Fournette is still the national rushing leader after being held to 31 yards by an 11-man Alabama front, which is kind of insane. He’ll rebound down the stretch, and should still win provided he goes for 200 in at least one game.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson was efficient and gritty against Florida State, which, more importantly, is the last good team Clemson faces. I see Watson in New York, though he’ll have to end the year really strong to win a Heisman out of the ACC.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

Given the considerable turmoil at the QB position this season for the Buckeyes, the fact that Elliott can be relied upon for 100 yards every week (at least 101 yards in all nine games) is pretty impressive.

Random Thoughts and Observations

About the Michigan State – Nebraska game… the officials ruled the receiver was forced out of bounds, but that’s simply not true; watching the replay, you can clearly see the Cornhuskers’ Brandon Reilly makes no immediate effort to re-enter the field of play, which he would have had to do in order to get that call. The illegal touching rule requires that the offensive player forced out of bounds immediately tries to get back in bounds. Reilly instead runs along the sideline for several yards and doesn’t come back in bounds until going up for the ball.

There will be a lot of talk this week about how Oklahoma State blew out TCU, and rightly so. It was a 20-point win over an elite opponent, and the Cowboys should be rewarded by the CFP Committee with a spot in the Final Four this week. However… there are a number of signs that point to this performance being a fluke.

TCU outgained OSU by 200 yards and 20 (20!) first downs on the road, holding the Cowboys to 81 yards on the ground on 26 carries. The Horned Frogs held the ball nearly two-thirds of the game and committed four turnovers to OSU’s zero. If those numbers sound familiar, it’s because it’s the exact same formula Ole Miss used to beat Alabama earlier this year. The Rebels have proved to be frauds; Oklahoma State is likely of the same ilk.

2015 Stanzi Awards

We had our first Double Stanzi of 2015, thanks to Cincy’s Gunner Kiel and Houston’s Greg Ward, Jr.! Kiel threw two picks and took a safety in the defeat, while Ward tossed two picks in the three-point win. Lovely.

Not to be outdone, another pair of American QB’s went Double Stanzi, as UCF’s Justin Holman threw two interceptions (one for a score) and Tulsa’s Dane Evans threw two more as the Golden Hurricane defeated the Knights.

Week 10 Awards

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska

Opponent: Michigan State

Performance: Two INT, won by one

Treon Harris, Florida

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston

Opponent: Cincinnati

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Thomas Woodson, Akron

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by four

Dane Evans, Tulsa

Opponent: UCF

Performance: Two INT, won by 15

Skyler Howard, West Virginia

Opponent: Texas Tech

Performance: Two INT, won by five

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee

Opponent: South Carolina

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Vernon Adams, Jr., Oregon

Opponent: Cal

Performance: Two INT, won by 16

2015 Standings

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

A.J. Schurr, Army: 1

Travis Wilson, Utah: 1

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 1

Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1

Treon Harris, Florida: 1

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 1

Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt: 1

Lamar Jackson, Louisville: 1

Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1

Skyler Howard, West Virginia: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Riley Neal, Ball State: 1

Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech: 1

Matt Johns, Virginia: 1

Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee: 1

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1

Chase Litton, Marshall: 1

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1

Quinton Flowers, USF: 1

Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1

Jake Coker, Alabama: 1

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1

Malik Rosier, Miami (FL): 1

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 1

Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1

Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1

Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1

Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1

Vernon Adams, Jr., Oregon: 1

Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1

Thomas Sirk, Duke: 1