The Consequence of Parity

It took another average schedule of games to finally wring elimination out of several contenders, but when the moment came, those teams didn’t disappoint. Or they did, depending on your point of view. Yes, Week 11 was a delight, offering up a bounty of upsets, wild finishes, and general zaniness normally reserved for Rivalry Week.

The committee’s top four all survived and will probably remain the same this week, as undefeateds Iowa and Oklahoma State didn’t do enough to justify leaps over one-loss teams Alabama and Notre Dame. That didn’t mean there was any lack of excitement at the top of the polls, though. On the contrary; four members of the top 10 went down, three to unranked foes. November is such a lovely time of year for college football.

LSU took it on the chin, getting blown out at home by Arkansas and proving yet again why Leonard Fournette is the only real Heisman choice: this Tigers squad is a joke, completely devoid of offensive talent. Next to go was Stanford, also at home, versus old nemesis Oregon. Oklahoma controlled most of the contest with Baylor in Waco before winning by 10, while Utah fell in double overtime at Arizona in #Pac12AfterDark action.

That doesn’t even account for Washington State’s dramatic victory at UCLA, Houston’s thrilling comeback over Memphis, or New Mexico’s shocking win at Boise State. In a week to remember, there were far too many great moments to recollect with a clear head.

With the lengthening of the football season, Rivalry Week has essentially been stretched into a two-week period beginning the weekend before Thanksgiving. As such, we start with the traditional rivalries in Week 12, and aside from the SEC’s pathetic slate of FCS patsies, it all looks very appetizing.

Air Force and Boise State meet for a key Mountain West matchup in Boise on Friday night, followed by a huge American showdown between Memphis and Temple and a sneaky-good Michigan – Penn State tilt to start Saturday. The Pac-12 gets a trio of fantastic games in the midday slate: Arizona – Arizona State in the Territorial Cup, USC – Oregon for the conference’s marquee cross-division match, and UCLA at Utah with South championship implications.

But there’s more! Northwestern and Wisconsin meet in Madison at the same time, as do Michigan State and Ohio State in Columbus, giving the Big Ten a surprising four ranked teams all in action against each other at the same time. It’s a truly marvelous noon schedule.

The rest of the day can’t quite compare to those riches, but the top of the Big 12 will be at least partially settled in primetime. Baylor is at Oklahoma State, while TCU travels to Oklahoma. This is what the conference wanted; this is what it’s going to get: two potential knockout games for the league, especially if the Oklahoma schools both win and the Sooners beat the Cowboys next week.

Playoff Poll

For the first time in quite a while this list was very easy to write. The top four remains the same, and barring a big upset at least three members will return next week. The best dozen-ish teams in the country (AKA the true contenders) are separated by so little this season, it’s hard to really go wrong.

First Tier

Clemson

Ohio State

Alabama

Oklahoma State

The Tigers didn’t look amazing against Syracuse, but they still have the resume of a No. 1 team. Oklahoma State can’t drop after a near-loss to Iowa State, because that’s what most of Ohio State’s season has looked like.

Second Tier

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

TCU

The Sooners were marvelous in Waco and eliminated Baylor from any kind of reasonable discussion. Notre Dame and TCU probably need help, but have a good shot to get in if they win out.

Third Tier

Florida

Michigan State

Iowa

Houston

This list is getting shorter, and with good reason. I don’t see any way the Gators, Hawkeyes or Spartans actually win out (including their conference championship games), which is why I’ve been so hesitant to consider them. The Cougars, at 13-0, would be enticing, but need a great deal of help to reach the Playoff.

Pac-12 Report

Well, the worst-case scenario some analysts predicted has come true: the Pac-12 will not be participating in the CFP. There are simply too many above-average teams, and not any elite teams. No shame in that. The league’s last hope was that Stanford or Utah would finish with a single loss and win the championship game in impressive fashion (preferably, against each other), forcing the committee to take a team from the nation’s deepest conference.

That pipe dream was shattered late Saturday, when Oregon beat Stanford and Arizona outlasted Utah. It wasn’t surprising to see the Utes go down, given how shaky the team had looked in recent weeks. Arizona, meanwhile, seems to have regained it’s footing after a rough start and some injuries.

Stanford was more puzzling, but in some ways the Cardinal were primed for a loss as well. They absolutely should have lost to Washington State, and the defense, while still strong, was not the same terrifying group it had been in years past. Oregon set the tone early with its offense, showing that, just as in UO’s other recent victories in this series, Stanford couldn’t handle the Ducks’ playmakers.

The two upsets overshadowed the rest of the craziness in the conference, as Colorado nearly upset an L.A. school for the second straight week, ASU came flying back to topple Washington and WSU exposed UCLA as a fraud. Cal also dominated OSU, which was no surprise.

This all leaves us with a wild mess atop the division standings. Stanford should still win the North, because all the Cardinal have to do is beat Cal this weekend. Oregon can win the division, but only if the Bears win and the Ducks beat USC and OSU. Washington State has been eliminated, because the Cougars lose the tiebreaker to Stanford (head-to-head) and lose the three-way tiebreaker to Oregon (divisional record).

In the South, there is madness. Utah and USC are both 5-2, with UCLA right behind at 4-3. The Bruins have by far the hardest road to the Pac-12 Championship; at Utah and at USC to end the season. USC’s isn’t much easier, at Oregon this week and then hosting UCLA. Utah gets UCLA and then Colorado, both at home.

It’s very difficult to predict how this will play out. I think USC is the best squad, but the Trojans draw the hardest game: at Oregon, the league’s hottest team. I think UCLA should beat Utah this week, but the Bruins have been mightily underwhelming against good competition. With a freebie in there versus Colorado, Utah is the safe bet, but the Utes haven’t looked great in more than a month.

This week the slate is absolutely gorgeous. Arizona – ASU kicks us off, right as USC – Oregon and UCLA – Utah get going. Washington is at Oregon State, while Cal and Stanford meet in the Big Game and Colorado travels to WSU. The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself this year, so enjoy it for one more week.

Heisman Watch

I get it. It’s not impressive when a Heisman winner comes from a multiple-loss team. It’s even less impressive when that player is held to a middling output in the biggest game of the year. But all Heisman winners are not equal, and running back is not a position that can be judged as easily as quarterback. QB stats in the modern game are outrageous, giving signal-callers a huge edge over every other position. Regardless of how good the rest of his offense is, a QB can put up numbers because of the simple fact of how often he touches the ball. RB is different, especially in an offense as weak and unimaginative as LSU’s. Leonard Fournette is the best player in the country and it is absurd to argue differently.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Fournette has rushed for only 122 yards in his previous two games as defenses go all-out to stop him and him alone. He still leads the nation in rushing. Enough said.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson could very well end up winning if the Tigers go unbeaten. His numbers don’t look as great as some other QB’s, but he’s carried the Clemson offense.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The Texas Tech transfer is hyper-efficient and deceptively athletic, and his performance at Baylor last week might vault him all the way to New York.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Just one this week, but it’s an important one. Just as context matters for a RB in a bad offense, it matters for one in a good offense. Are voters really going to give the Heisman to Alabama’s Derrick Henry? Henry is a talented, physical back, but so was Trent Richardson. I thought, as a nation, we had learned from the Mark Ingram fiasco. Alabama running backs do not deserve the Heisman. Playing behind one of, if not the best, offensive lines in the country, in a multi-back system, gives a certain leg up.

2015 Stanzi Awards

We got a sweet Double Stanzi this week, when Akron’s Thomas Woodson and Miami (OH)’s Billy Bahl combined for four picks in a 37-28 game. There were seven total Stanzis, but the bigger excitement was Woodson and Florida’s Treon Harris moving into the multiple winners category. It’s time for the finalists! The list will now be trimmed to players with a minimum of two Stanzis, though of course late entries are always accepted.

Week 11 Awards

Ryan Graham, Northern Illinois

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM, won by 11

Treon Harris, Florida

Opponent: South Carolina

Performance: Two INT, won by 10

Thomas Woodson, Akron

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by nine

Kyle Bolin, Louisville

Opponent: Virginia

Performance: Two FUM, won by seven

Dalton Sturm, Texas-San Antonio

Opponent: Charlotte

Performance: Three INT, won by three (OT)

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati

Opponent: Tulsa

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

Austin Apodaca, New Mexico

Opponent: Boise State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

2015 Stanzi Award Finalists

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Treon Harris, Florida: 2

And there we have it. Rivalry Week is (nearly, kinda sorta) upon us. Let the November madness begin!