Ohio State mashed

We’ve reached the nadir of Playoff scenarios, and it’s become abundantly clear why the committee was so adamant about the not including a “conference champion” stipulation to the entrants’ resumes. With Michigan State’s upset of Ohio State – on the road, with a backup quarterback – the most talented team in the Big 10 could be locked out of the league’s title match. Iowa, on the other hand, missed the three best teams in the conference thanks to the Big 10’s unnecessary bloating with Maryland and Rutgers. The Big 10 champion could be the fourth-best team in the conference.

Of course, that’s not nearly as bad a situation as what the Pac-12 is looking at, where the third- and fourth-best teams in the league will square off for the right to be named champion. The two best teams in the conference have been locked out, and the South division winner will be USC or UCLA, both with three conference losses. Welcome to the superconference era, boys. Hope all that TV money was worth it.

In the Big 12, there will be a single-loss champion, though that team could get left out of the Playoff entirely if one-loss Notre Dame knocks off Stanford this week. That 13^th game is looking better and better every year, isn’t it? The Big 12 desperately needs to expand back to 12 schools, but at this point there’s just no one left to grab. Maybe that Pac-16 idea wasn’t so crazy after all.

In the ACC, it’s Clemson or no one, and the SEC will probably have a solid one-loss Alabama team to lean on. That’s half of our playoff, and from there it gets really dicey. If the Pac-12 gets a team in, it’ll be Stanford, but Stanford isn’t the best team in the conference. Oklahoma would have a great chance at 11-1, but (due to schedule weakness) Oklahoma State and Baylor wouldn’t. Michigan State might or might not make it in with a win over a 12-0 Iowa team, while the Hawkeyes would certainly be in with an (unlikely) 13-0 record. It’s intrigue like this that makes Week 13 so delightful.

Yes, the majority of Rivalry Week is here, and it’s jam-packed with the kind of Thanksgiving goodness you’d expect. Thanks to Texas and Texas A&M’s acrimonious falling-out, Thanksgiving day itself no longer features the classic Lone Star Showdown, but Texas – Texas Tech isn’t a terrible consolation prize. We also get the great under-the-radar rivalry of South Florida and Central Florida, with the Bulls trying to win the American’s East division.

Friday morning, Toledo takes on Western Michigan with an eye on the MAC West title (Bowling Green has clinched the East). At the same time, Houston and Navy meet in a battle to determine not only the AAC’s West division, but possibly which “Group of Five” squad will be invited to a New Year’s Six bowl game. At midday we get the Apple Cup and Civil War in Pac-12 country, while Iowa travels to Nebraska looking to go undefeated in the regular season against a Cornhuskers team that needs the win for bowl eligibility. The much-ballyhooed but now less-than-titanic Baylor-TCU matchup is in the afternoon, while rivals Tulsa and Tulane meet in New Orleans.

On Saturday morning, Big Ten rivals Purdue and Indiana play in West Lafayette, with the Hoosiers one win from the postseason. Ohio State is in Ann Arbor for a still-important rivalry game with Michigan, while Michigan State must defeat Penn State to clinch a spot opposite Iowa in the Big Ten Championship.

In the afternoon, we kick off all the ACC-SEC rivalry games (Clemson – South Carolina, Georgia – Georgia Tech, Florida – Florida State and now, Louisville – Kentucky). Florida – FSU is the only meaningful game in the bunch, but oh well. Minnesota hosts Wisconsin in the nation’s most-played rivalry, followed by a series of high-profile contests: North Carolina – NCSU; Alabama – Auburn in the Iron Bowl; UCLA – USC; Kansas – Kansas State in the Sunflower Showdown, and Ole Miss – Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl.

In primetime, the Bedlam Game (Oklahoma – OSU) may decide the Big 12, while an even more important matchup looms: Notre Dame at Stanford, to decide if the Fighting Irish – or possibly even the Cardinal – can make the Playoff.

Playoff Poll

Ohio State was essentially eliminated with the loss to Michigan State. It’s hard to imagine the committee taking the Buckeyes now, even if they weasel in to the Big Ten title game and beat Iowa. The resume is too weak from a Big Ten schedule.

First Tier

Clemson

Alabama

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

I’m not sure what to expect from Notre Dame this weekend, but that’s why they play the games.

Second Tier

Michigan State

Iowa

I think the Spartans still have a better shot to make the playoff, given their win over Oregon.

Third Tier

Florida

Oklahoma State

Baylor

The margin of error for the Big 12 teams is razor-thin, thanks to those creampuff non-conference schedules.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Oregon continued its outrageous offensive tear in an obliteration of USC, but it didn’t matter in the long-term sense, as Stanford pulled out a sluggish win over Cal to claim the North. With Utah’s ugly loss to UCLA, the L.A. schools are set to play for the South title on the final weekend.

That’s a shame, because it gives us the third- and fourth- best teams in the league competing for the right to be called the best. Oregon is the best team in the Pac-12 when healthy, and Washington State is the clear second. That puts Stanford at third, with SC and UCLA fourth and fifth (the winner of this week’s game presumably coming in fourth). Ugh.

Unfortunately, that’s what happens in a superconference with divisions: you run the risk of stacking one side too strong. It happened each of the past few seasons with just Oregon and Stanford, now Wazzu is in the mix too. Don’t blame the L.A. schools; blame the conference.

Friday, we get the Civil War and Apple Cup, a pair of delightful ancient Northwest rivalries. The early Saturday matchups are Utah – Colorado and UCLA – USC. Cal – ASU is the weird non-rivalry game of the weekend, but the important one is Notre Dame at Stanford. Stanford seemed to peak during the middle of the season, but the Irish haven’t been exactly fearsome lately either.

Still, the squads come into the weekend with a combined 19-3 record, so there’s a lot at stake. Notre Dame would be pretty hard to keep out of the Playoff at 11-1 with victories over ranked Navy and Stanford teams (and a two-point loss at No. 1 Clemson). Stanford, at 11-2 (assuming a Pac-12 title as well) would be awfully enticing too. Should be a great game.

Heisman Watch

LSU lost again, so Leonard Fournette will not win the Heisman. That’s reasonable, even though he’s probably the most talented player in the country. So who should win? There are a few very strong candidates and a few overhyped ones.

DeShaun Watson, QB, Clemson

My first choice at this juncture, Watson has put together a nice 32-touchdown season for the No. 1 team in the country. It’s not Marcus Mariota’s 58 TD campaign, but it’s possible nothing ever will be.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

Mayfield is a better passer than Watson and is surprisingly mobile. His team’s weaker record will probably doom him, though.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

The fact that Fournette has managed nearly 1,600 yards and 17 TD’s in LSU’s offense should be legendary. Sadly, it appears it’s going to go down as a historical footnote.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Les Miles’ seemingly imminent departure from LSU is hard to understand, but in the long run the school may be making the right choice. Miles’ tenure has been fantastic by most measures, but his coaching has never equaled his recruiting acumen and his single title came with a slew of good fortune (in short: backdooring into the BCS title game after the No. 1 AND No. 2 teams lost on the final week of the season; having the brand-new Gary Crowton offense in a year when teams hadn’t yet adapted to the spread; facing a mediocre Ohio State team in the BCS Championship, and doing it all with Nick Saban’s players).

LSU has consistently been elite, but not quite good enough, even in its incredible 2011 season in which the Tigers posted the best pre-bowl resume of any team in history (EIGHT wins over ranked teams?!?!) but lost 21-0 to Alabama in the BCS Championship rematch. What’s more, despite an incredible glut of next-level talent, including players who have gone on to star in the NFL, Miles has always forced his teams into a decades-out-of-date, mind-numbingly conservative offense that relies more on pure talent than scheme.

It’s not crazy that LSU would want to find someone who can build on what Miles has done rather than be stuck always finishing second fiddle to Alabama. However, that doesn’t mean it’s not a classic case of a school thinking the grass might be greener. Not many coaches have Miles’ record over the past decade; fewer still have the caliber to do it in the SEC. LSU might very well climb to new heights with a new head man… or it could tumble into obscurity like so many powerhouse programs before it.

2015 Stanzi Awards

There were some epically great Stanzis this week, including Karson Roberts four-turnover masterpiece in Air Force’s win over Boise State. Roberts’ award goes down as the single best of the season, but he has a lot of ground to make up to be a finalist. More importantly, we now have a tie atop the standings, as Florida’s Treon Harris snagged his third weekly Stanzi.

Week 12 Awards

Karson Roberts, Air Force

Opponent: Boise State

Performance: Three INT, one FUM, won by seven

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

Opponent: Boston College

Performance: Three INT, won by three

Treon Harris, Florida

Opponent: Florida Atlantic

Performance: One INT, one FUM (for TD), won by six (overtime)

Jake Rudock, Michigan

Opponent: Penn State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 12

Marquise Williams, North Carolina

Opponent: Virginia Tech

Performance: Two FUM, won by three

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

Opponent: Arkansas

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by one

  

2015 Finalists

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Treon Harris, Florida: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 2

In an unusual twist, the top five players on the leaderboard all play in high-profile difficult games this weekend, making another award unlikely for all of them. However, a Stanzi this week to end the season could push someone over the top. What will happen? Will it be season-long leader Mason Rudolph, late bloomer Treon Harris, or another player entirely? Be sure and tune in for some sweet Thanksgiving Stanzi action!

The Consequence of Parity

It took another average schedule of games to finally wring elimination out of several contenders, but when the moment came, those teams didn’t disappoint. Or they did, depending on your point of view. Yes, Week 11 was a delight, offering up a bounty of upsets, wild finishes, and general zaniness normally reserved for Rivalry Week.

The committee’s top four all survived and will probably remain the same this week, as undefeateds Iowa and Oklahoma State didn’t do enough to justify leaps over one-loss teams Alabama and Notre Dame. That didn’t mean there was any lack of excitement at the top of the polls, though. On the contrary; four members of the top 10 went down, three to unranked foes. November is such a lovely time of year for college football.

LSU took it on the chin, getting blown out at home by Arkansas and proving yet again why Leonard Fournette is the only real Heisman choice: this Tigers squad is a joke, completely devoid of offensive talent. Next to go was Stanford, also at home, versus old nemesis Oregon. Oklahoma controlled most of the contest with Baylor in Waco before winning by 10, while Utah fell in double overtime at Arizona in #Pac12AfterDark action.

That doesn’t even account for Washington State’s dramatic victory at UCLA, Houston’s thrilling comeback over Memphis, or New Mexico’s shocking win at Boise State. In a week to remember, there were far too many great moments to recollect with a clear head.

With the lengthening of the football season, Rivalry Week has essentially been stretched into a two-week period beginning the weekend before Thanksgiving. As such, we start with the traditional rivalries in Week 12, and aside from the SEC’s pathetic slate of FCS patsies, it all looks very appetizing.

Air Force and Boise State meet for a key Mountain West matchup in Boise on Friday night, followed by a huge American showdown between Memphis and Temple and a sneaky-good Michigan – Penn State tilt to start Saturday. The Pac-12 gets a trio of fantastic games in the midday slate: Arizona – Arizona State in the Territorial Cup, USC – Oregon for the conference’s marquee cross-division match, and UCLA at Utah with South championship implications.

But there’s more! Northwestern and Wisconsin meet in Madison at the same time, as do Michigan State and Ohio State in Columbus, giving the Big Ten a surprising four ranked teams all in action against each other at the same time. It’s a truly marvelous noon schedule.

The rest of the day can’t quite compare to those riches, but the top of the Big 12 will be at least partially settled in primetime. Baylor is at Oklahoma State, while TCU travels to Oklahoma. This is what the conference wanted; this is what it’s going to get: two potential knockout games for the league, especially if the Oklahoma schools both win and the Sooners beat the Cowboys next week.

Playoff Poll

For the first time in quite a while this list was very easy to write. The top four remains the same, and barring a big upset at least three members will return next week. The best dozen-ish teams in the country (AKA the true contenders) are separated by so little this season, it’s hard to really go wrong.

First Tier

Clemson

Ohio State

Alabama

Oklahoma State

The Tigers didn’t look amazing against Syracuse, but they still have the resume of a No. 1 team. Oklahoma State can’t drop after a near-loss to Iowa State, because that’s what most of Ohio State’s season has looked like.

Second Tier

Oklahoma

Notre Dame

TCU

The Sooners were marvelous in Waco and eliminated Baylor from any kind of reasonable discussion. Notre Dame and TCU probably need help, but have a good shot to get in if they win out.

Third Tier

Florida

Michigan State

Iowa

Houston

This list is getting shorter, and with good reason. I don’t see any way the Gators, Hawkeyes or Spartans actually win out (including their conference championship games), which is why I’ve been so hesitant to consider them. The Cougars, at 13-0, would be enticing, but need a great deal of help to reach the Playoff.

Pac-12 Report

Well, the worst-case scenario some analysts predicted has come true: the Pac-12 will not be participating in the CFP. There are simply too many above-average teams, and not any elite teams. No shame in that. The league’s last hope was that Stanford or Utah would finish with a single loss and win the championship game in impressive fashion (preferably, against each other), forcing the committee to take a team from the nation’s deepest conference.

That pipe dream was shattered late Saturday, when Oregon beat Stanford and Arizona outlasted Utah. It wasn’t surprising to see the Utes go down, given how shaky the team had looked in recent weeks. Arizona, meanwhile, seems to have regained it’s footing after a rough start and some injuries.

Stanford was more puzzling, but in some ways the Cardinal were primed for a loss as well. They absolutely should have lost to Washington State, and the defense, while still strong, was not the same terrifying group it had been in years past. Oregon set the tone early with its offense, showing that, just as in UO’s other recent victories in this series, Stanford couldn’t handle the Ducks’ playmakers.

The two upsets overshadowed the rest of the craziness in the conference, as Colorado nearly upset an L.A. school for the second straight week, ASU came flying back to topple Washington and WSU exposed UCLA as a fraud. Cal also dominated OSU, which was no surprise.

This all leaves us with a wild mess atop the division standings. Stanford should still win the North, because all the Cardinal have to do is beat Cal this weekend. Oregon can win the division, but only if the Bears win and the Ducks beat USC and OSU. Washington State has been eliminated, because the Cougars lose the tiebreaker to Stanford (head-to-head) and lose the three-way tiebreaker to Oregon (divisional record).

In the South, there is madness. Utah and USC are both 5-2, with UCLA right behind at 4-3. The Bruins have by far the hardest road to the Pac-12 Championship; at Utah and at USC to end the season. USC’s isn’t much easier, at Oregon this week and then hosting UCLA. Utah gets UCLA and then Colorado, both at home.

It’s very difficult to predict how this will play out. I think USC is the best squad, but the Trojans draw the hardest game: at Oregon, the league’s hottest team. I think UCLA should beat Utah this week, but the Bruins have been mightily underwhelming against good competition. With a freebie in there versus Colorado, Utah is the safe bet, but the Utes haven’t looked great in more than a month.

This week the slate is absolutely gorgeous. Arizona – ASU kicks us off, right as USC – Oregon and UCLA – Utah get going. Washington is at Oregon State, while Cal and Stanford meet in the Big Game and Colorado travels to WSU. The Pac-12 has cannibalized itself this year, so enjoy it for one more week.

Heisman Watch

I get it. It’s not impressive when a Heisman winner comes from a multiple-loss team. It’s even less impressive when that player is held to a middling output in the biggest game of the year. But all Heisman winners are not equal, and running back is not a position that can be judged as easily as quarterback. QB stats in the modern game are outrageous, giving signal-callers a huge edge over every other position. Regardless of how good the rest of his offense is, a QB can put up numbers because of the simple fact of how often he touches the ball. RB is different, especially in an offense as weak and unimaginative as LSU’s. Leonard Fournette is the best player in the country and it is absurd to argue differently.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Fournette has rushed for only 122 yards in his previous two games as defenses go all-out to stop him and him alone. He still leads the nation in rushing. Enough said.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson could very well end up winning if the Tigers go unbeaten. His numbers don’t look as great as some other QB’s, but he’s carried the Clemson offense.

Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma

The Texas Tech transfer is hyper-efficient and deceptively athletic, and his performance at Baylor last week might vault him all the way to New York.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Just one this week, but it’s an important one. Just as context matters for a RB in a bad offense, it matters for one in a good offense. Are voters really going to give the Heisman to Alabama’s Derrick Henry? Henry is a talented, physical back, but so was Trent Richardson. I thought, as a nation, we had learned from the Mark Ingram fiasco. Alabama running backs do not deserve the Heisman. Playing behind one of, if not the best, offensive lines in the country, in a multi-back system, gives a certain leg up.

2015 Stanzi Awards

We got a sweet Double Stanzi this week, when Akron’s Thomas Woodson and Miami (OH)’s Billy Bahl combined for four picks in a 37-28 game. There were seven total Stanzis, but the bigger excitement was Woodson and Florida’s Treon Harris moving into the multiple winners category. It’s time for the finalists! The list will now be trimmed to players with a minimum of two Stanzis, though of course late entries are always accepted.

Week 11 Awards

Ryan Graham, Northern Illinois

Opponent: Buffalo

Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM, won by 11

Treon Harris, Florida

Opponent: South Carolina

Performance: Two INT, won by 10

Thomas Woodson, Akron

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by nine

Kyle Bolin, Louisville

Opponent: Virginia

Performance: Two FUM, won by seven

Dalton Sturm, Texas-San Antonio

Opponent: Charlotte

Performance: Three INT, won by three (OT)

Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati

Opponent: Tulsa

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 11

Austin Apodaca, New Mexico

Opponent: Boise State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

2015 Stanzi Award Finalists

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

Treon Harris, Florida: 2

And there we have it. Rivalry Week is (nearly, kinda sorta) upon us. Let the November madness begin!

Tiger, Tiger, Burning Bright

Finally, some clarity. We lost five unbeaten teams this week, starting with Toledo on Tuesday night and continuing through TCU’s blowout to Oklahoma State, Michigan State’s stunning loss to Nebraska, Memphis’ rough outing versus Navy and LSU’s ugly showing against Alabama. It was an elimination weekend, and the true contenders delivered.

It wasn’t shocking to see LSU go down; the Tigers’ offense outside of running back Leonard Fournette is pitiful. Alabama is in the driver’s seat in the SEC, again, after Ole Miss couldn’t defend a fourth-and-25 and lost to Arkansas in overtime. The Rebels’ defense on that fateful play – which cost them a shot at a conference title – will go down in the annals of the worst plays in history.

Michigan State’s loss, on the other hand, was more surprising. Nebraska had been pretty bad all season and trailed by 12 with two minutes to play, only to complete a miraculous rally thanks to a horrible uncalled illegal touching on the deciding touchdown pass. MSU had been playing with fire all year, though, and really should have lost to both Oregon and Michigan. This loss evens things out.

TCU got clocked just like LSU, but that result was a little stunning. It’s not that Oklahoma State isn’t good. The Cowboys were undefeated, after all. It’s the nature of the loss that surprised, as OSU rolled to a 35-9 lead as Horned Frogs quarterback Trevone Boykin threw four picks. Now, the final is misleading, which I’ll get into a little later. But it’s time to start taking Okie State seriously.

As great as this past weekend was, it seems we’ve got another awful slate ahead in Week 11. Memphis – Houston was going to be a massive showdown of unbeatens, until the Tigers went ahead and got crushed by Navy’s option (not that it won’t still be a quality contest). Oregon is at Stanford, but the Cardinal will be heavily favored, and that game has lost most of its preseason luster. Baylor finally plays someone (Oklahoma), but with a backup now at QB I’m taking the Sooners. There just aren’t many great matchups, which is highly disappointing this deep into the year.

Playoff Poll

It seems Clemson was the right choice at no. 1. Even though the Tigers didn’t really blow anyone away with a so-so win against a QB-less Florida State team, their collective performance in recent weeks has them trending up. Ohio State was, once again, underwhelming.

First Tier

Clemson

Ohio State

Alabama

Oklahoma State

Alabama took out LSU with extreme prejudice, showing that this is probably the nation’s most talented team for seemingly the millionth year in a row. Oklahoma State is not one of the best four teams in the country, but the resume right now deserves Playoff inclusion.

Second Tier

Stanford

Baylor

Notre Dame

TCU

Until the Bears play a team with a pulse, they’re not going anywhere. TCU stays high because, despite the embarrassing loss, the Horned Frogs will still (likely) be in if they win out.

Third Tier

Florida

LSU

Oklahoma

Houston

The Gators, Tigers and Sooners all have one loss and are unlikely to run the table the rest of the way or win their leagues. They have an outside shot, but need a few breaks. The same applies for undefeated Houston.

Pac-12 Report

Oh, Washington State. That Stanford loss really stings now. By thoroughly outclassing Arizona State, the Cougars became bowl-eligible and took another step toward a division title – a title they should have been able to essentially clinch with a win this weekend at UCLA. Instead, the Cougs will have to hope Oregon or Cal can knock off the Cardinal.

Stanford and UCLA both dominated weak competition, while USC managed to bumble its way to a win over previously hapless Arizona. Oregon pulled away from Cal late, sending the Bears to their fourth straight defeat, and Utah got tremendously lucky to come away with a win over Washington.

It’s become clear that Utah simply isn’t an elite team, regardless of what the record indicates. UW dominated that game up and down the field, only losing because of a comedy of errors that handed the Utes great field position and free TD’s. With Arizona and Colorado left on the schedule, I don’t see Utah losing more than once, but that game against UCLA is looking more and more like a loss. The Utes have been way too erratic to trust any longer.

This Friday, Colorado gets one last chance at bowl eligibility against USC, though sadly it’s a long shot. Washington is at ASU for a matchup of teams that probably both rightfully believe their season records belie their quality. Both sit at 4-5 and 2-4 in conference play, but the Sun Devils could easily have six wins, while Washington could have seven.

The mid-afternoon contest is the one that’s decided the Pac-12 for the past five seasons, though it seems unlikely to do so a sixth time. Stanford is favored by 10 over Oregon at home, which is reasonable. The Cardinal have been on a tear since the opening loss to Northwestern, with the lone exception the WSU game they really should have lost. Oregon has started to round into form with the return of several missing starters, so this figures to be a decent game. It wouldn’t shock me if the Ducks got a win; the UO offense has been very impressive of late, and Stanford QB Kevin Hogan has never been particularly trustworthy.

We end with a bizarre triumvirate of late games, starting with Utah at Arizona. The Utes are due for a fall, no doubt, but it seems unlikely to come against the Wildcats… at least, that would have been true, until ‘Zona nearly knocked off USC – the team that throttled Utah two weeks ago – last weekend. Not sure what to make of this one, but I think Utah should win.

Next is Oregon State at Cal, and while Beavers fans are probably dreaming of getting that one elusive conference victory, it’s not going to happen. The Bears are steaming, losers of four straight, and know they need this game to ensure a postseason appearance given that Stanford and ASU are still on the docket. OSU will score more than usual thanks to the ugly Cal D, but this is going to be a loss as well.

Finally, the nightcap: Washington State at UCLA. When did Wazzu become must-see television? Each of the Cougars’ last few games has been an absolute crackerjack, and this one figures to be no different. I’m not sure what the Bruins have done that’s so impressive to the pollsters; the only win over a squad with a winning record came out of conference in a fortunate decision over BYU, while UCLA was smacked around by both ASU and Stanford. Well, no matter. This is a show-me game for both schools, with the winner taking home a ranking.

Heisman Watch

Our Heisman nightmare scenario came to fruition Saturday, when Alabama correctly discerned that LSU had no quality offensive players other than RB Leonard Fournette and played defense accordingly. The resulting bad game from Fournette opens the door for a number of other players, though it seems silly given how much better he is than the competition.

Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU

Fournette is still the national rushing leader after being held to 31 yards by an 11-man Alabama front, which is kind of insane. He’ll rebound down the stretch, and should still win provided he goes for 200 in at least one game.

Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson

Watson was efficient and gritty against Florida State, which, more importantly, is the last good team Clemson faces. I see Watson in New York, though he’ll have to end the year really strong to win a Heisman out of the ACC.

Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Ohio State

Given the considerable turmoil at the QB position this season for the Buckeyes, the fact that Elliott can be relied upon for 100 yards every week (at least 101 yards in all nine games) is pretty impressive.

Random Thoughts and Observations

About the Michigan State – Nebraska game… the officials ruled the receiver was forced out of bounds, but that’s simply not true; watching the replay, you can clearly see the Cornhuskers’ Brandon Reilly makes no immediate effort to re-enter the field of play, which he would have had to do in order to get that call. The illegal touching rule requires that the offensive player forced out of bounds immediately tries to get back in bounds. Reilly instead runs along the sideline for several yards and doesn’t come back in bounds until going up for the ball.

There will be a lot of talk this week about how Oklahoma State blew out TCU, and rightly so. It was a 20-point win over an elite opponent, and the Cowboys should be rewarded by the CFP Committee with a spot in the Final Four this week. However… there are a number of signs that point to this performance being a fluke.

TCU outgained OSU by 200 yards and 20 (20!) first downs on the road, holding the Cowboys to 81 yards on the ground on 26 carries. The Horned Frogs held the ball nearly two-thirds of the game and committed four turnovers to OSU’s zero. If those numbers sound familiar, it’s because it’s the exact same formula Ole Miss used to beat Alabama earlier this year. The Rebels have proved to be frauds; Oklahoma State is likely of the same ilk.

2015 Stanzi Awards

We had our first Double Stanzi of 2015, thanks to Cincy’s Gunner Kiel and Houston’s Greg Ward, Jr.! Kiel threw two picks and took a safety in the defeat, while Ward tossed two picks in the three-point win. Lovely.

Not to be outdone, another pair of American QB’s went Double Stanzi, as UCF’s Justin Holman threw two interceptions (one for a score) and Tulsa’s Dane Evans threw two more as the Golden Hurricane defeated the Knights.

Week 10 Awards

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska

Opponent: Michigan State

Performance: Two INT, won by one

Treon Harris, Florida

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston

Opponent: Cincinnati

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Thomas Woodson, Akron

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: Two INT, one FUM, won by four

Dane Evans, Tulsa

Opponent: UCF

Performance: Two INT, won by 15

Skyler Howard, West Virginia

Opponent: Texas Tech

Performance: Two INT, won by five

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee

Opponent: South Carolina

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Vernon Adams, Jr., Oregon

Opponent: Cal

Performance: Two INT, won by 16

2015 Standings

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

A.J. Schurr, Army: 1

Travis Wilson, Utah: 1

Thomas Woodson, Akron: 1

Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1

Treon Harris, Florida: 1

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 1

Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech: 1

Greg Ward, Jr., Houston: 1

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt: 1

Lamar Jackson, Louisville: 1

Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1

Skyler Howard, West Virginia: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Riley Neal, Ball State: 1

Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech: 1

Matt Johns, Virginia: 1

Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1

Joshua Dobbs, Tennessee: 1

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1

Chase Litton, Marshall: 1

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska: 1

Quinton Flowers, USF: 1

Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1

Jake Coker, Alabama: 1

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1

Malik Rosier, Miami (FL): 1

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 1

Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1

Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1

Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1

Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1

Vernon Adams, Jr., Oregon: 1

Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1

Thomas Sirk, Duke: 1

Iowa's inescapable DestiSTANZI

Week Nine didn’t feel destined for infamy based on its matchups, but that’s why we play the games. Miami (FL) – Duke will forever live on as a template of how NOT to officiate a game-ending play, and we’ll probably see some rules changes because of it as well. The Dukies have a right to be upset, but the NCAA will never change the outcome of a game after the fact, so the Blue Devils will have to console themselves with a revenge win in 2016.

The weekend exceeded its very modest expectations, which is all the nation can hope for during these midyear schedule slumps. Oregon and Arizona State played an absolutely bonkers game in Tempe on Thursday night. Clemson turned back a quality challenge from North Carolina State, while Temple threw away a chance to beat Notre Dame and Washington State did the same versus Stanford. Florida crushed Georgia, turning Mark Richt’s seat temperature level up to “scorching.”

In the end, we were left with just as many questions as answers. Will Houston or Memphis go undefeated? Who on earth is going to win the Big 12? Did Florida really just wrap up the East by Halloween? Is the Pac-12 going to be left out of the Playoff? (In all likelihood, the answers are, in order: yes, at least one; no one knows; pretty much, and probably.)

But fear not, genteel viewers: the long dark is finally over. We get legitimate answers, not wishy-washy ones, starting this weekend. Penn State and Northwestern, teams with a combined 13-4 record, kick us off on Saturday. Duke is at North Carolina for a vital ACC matchup, while Notre Dame travels to Pitt for a potentially dangerous trap game. In the midday slate, things get real, as we get the long-awaited FSU – Clemson showdown and undefeateds TCU and Oklahoma State meeting in Stillwater.

Later on, there’s a huge American clash when Navy meets Memphis, while Utah heads to Seattle to duel a scary Washington squad. Finally, there’s the annual headliner of LSU – Alabama, with the Crimson Tide seemingly in position to roll to another SEC title. It’s a weekend full of delightful battles and meaningful matchups that will decide league races.

Playoff Poll

The undefeated teams are still getting the nod, but this week will make things muddier, particularly if Alabama beats LSU.

First Tier

Clemson

Ohio State/Michigan State

LSU/Alabama

TCU

I like what the Tigers did on the road at NCSU, and OSU and MSU have been far too disappointing for far too long. The winner of LSU/’Bama could potentially move to the top.

Second Tier

Stanford

Baylor

Oklahoma State

The Cardinal should have lost, but we’ve seen that before. Okie State answered a bad start and a rough day from its defense to win on the road.

Third Tier

Notre Dame

Florida

Utah

Florida State

Memphis/Houston

The Fighting Irish and Gators got good results this week. We’re waiting on the Clemson game to judge the Seminoles, and the AAC trio took a hit when Temple lost (though the Owls looked good doing it).

Pac-12 Report

Oh, Wazzu. It was right there. The Cougars should have taken first place in the division, controlling their own destiny for the North crown, with wins over Oregon and Stanford in hand. It was right there, and they couldn’t finish. Instead, we’re back to the same old story: Stanford or Oregon (almost definitely Stanford) will play for the Pac-12 championship. Heartbreaking for the Cougs.

Oregon and Arizona State got the Pac-12 slate started Thursday by giving us three games’ worth of nuttiness. I feel for the replay official on the Ducks’ touchdown in the third overtime; Bralon Addison’s foot was almost certainly on the end line, but with the view partially blocked by a photographer’s camera, the letter of the rule applied, so the call on the field had to stand. I also have less sympathy for ASU after the Sun Devils committed the cardinal sin of throwing over the middle on the goal line. The first pass should have been intercepted, the second was.

Utah was less than inspiring in its bounce-back game at Oregon State. After scoring TD’s on their first two drives, the Utes were largely played to a draw by the Beavers, the Pac-12’s worst team. Utah only outgained OSU by 60 yards, an alarming statistic. All of this took place at home, not the sometimes-rowdy confines of Reser Stadium.

Speaking of heartbreaking close calls, how about Colorado? The Buffaloes had UCLA dead to rights, driving down the field for a potential game-winning score… only to give it right back on the ensuing possession. With the win, CU would have moved to within one victory of bowl eligibility, a tremendous achievement for the program. Now the Buffs are likely staying home again. UCLA needs to wake up, fast. The Bruins were outgained by 150 yards and needed two defensive scores to beat Colorado at home.

USC outlasted Cal, though it was a bit closer than I expected. It’s still hard to make out what SC is. The Trojans seemed liberated last week in throttling Utah, but this result doesn’t inspire much confidence that the team is headed for a late-season run. As for the Golden Bears, well, they’ll always have 5-0. With OSU still on the schedule, Cal will surely get to six wins, but the three remaining games are nasty: Oregon, Stanford and Arizona State.

It might be too early to say Jake Browning has arrived, but Washington’s quarterback situation looks a lot better than it did a few months ago. Browning and U-Dub annihilated Arizona late Saturday, ripping off 49 straight points after giving up a field goal on the Wildcats’ opening drive. The Huskies have been schizophrenic thus far, but could still have a nice end to the season. ‘Zona, meanwhile, is on the decline.

Stanford should be able to handle Colorado without issue in the early game Saturday, as should UCLA at Oregon State. I don’t expect Arizona to turn things around to beat USC, either. The remaining games are toss-ups.

At midday, ASU is at WSU for a very fun-looking matchup. Both teams can legitimately claim they should have won last week. I think the Sun Devils are slightly better, but ASU has historically been awful in Pullman, where the elements provide a much less friendly game experience than Tempe. The Cougars have to be smarting from kicking away so much against Stanford, but they’d better get over it fast.

In the afternoon, we get Utah at Washington. I think the line is right: the Huskies should be favored. Utah hasn’t looked great for a few weeks now, while UW has two impressive wins in the past month. Washington is at home, has momentum, and will have a loud stadium in its final non-Apple Cup home game of the year. Utah is a better team overall, but this is a big test the Utes are going to need to prove they can win before I trust them.

Half of the nightcap is Cal at Oregon (the other half being Arizona – USC). This is an interesting matchup, as Oregon is certainly the more talented team. However, the Ducks’ atrocious pass defense, third-worst in the country, will probably even things out. All the Bears want to do is throw, and against a defense that has allowed 318 yards a game – as well as a nation-worst 27 TD passes – they figure to be able to do that all day. Cal’s defense isn’t good enough to contain UO’s sixth-best rushing attack, but Oregon might be in for another shootout.

Heisman Watch

Leonard Fournette. Leonard Fournette. Leonard Fournette.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I’m pretty good with the CFP Committee’s first rankings. Clemson is a worthy no. 1, and while LSU shouldn’t really be as high as it is, that doesn’t matter. LSU and Alabama play this week, and the winner will be the presumptive SEC entry into the playoff. The same applies to Ohio State and Michigan State and TCU/Baylor (although Oklahoma and Oklahoma State could complicate that).

In the end, we’re left with the same scenario we have been for a month now: the Pac-12 seems likely to be shut out, as only Stanford has a legitimate shot to make a run. Notre Dame could theoretically jump in, but the Fighting Irish play Stanford in both teams’ regular-season finale; the game will eliminate one team and act as a de facto play-in for the fifth spot, provided no one else loses.

2015 Stanzi Awards

Ah, I knew we couldn’t keep Stanford’s Kevin Hogan off this list forever! The embattled Cardinal QB has seen his share of dumb turnovers and bad losses, so it was only a matter of time. Ole Miss’ Chad Kelly became a multiple-week winner with a two-pick performance against Auburn as well.

However, this week I’d like to note a special anniversary. It was this week, six years ago, when our beloved award was born. Iowa QB Ricky Stanzi had a career full of miraculous comebacks from holes he put his team into, but none was as improbable as the one on November 3^rd, 2009. In that game, the Hawkeyes trailed by 14 in the third quarter (and 10 in the fourth), thanks to five interceptions from their signal-caller. Yet thanks to a bizarre deflected pick-six and a massive Indiana collapse, Iowa scored 28 points in the final quarter to escape with a win.

My irritation with that game was what ultimately spawned the Stanzi Award, all those years ago. And now for some incredibly eerie parallels:

The opponent that first weekend of November was Indiana. The opponent this weekend, the first of November 2015, is Indiana.

The Hoosiers’ record to that point in 2009 was 4-4. Their record right now? 4-4.

Iowa’s record to that point in 2009 was 8-0. The Hawkeyes’ record right now: 8-0.

Iowa’s ranking at the time of that game? Ninth. Its ranking this week? YOU’D BETTER BELIEVE IT’S NINTH!!!!!!! IT’S DESTINY!!! 

Week Nine Awards

Kevin Hogan, Stanford

Opponent: Washington State

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by two

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame

Opponent: Temple

Performance: Two INT, won by four

Jake Rudock, Michigan

Opponent: Minnesota

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by three

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss

Opponent: Auburn

Performance: Two INT, won by eight

Malik Rosier, Miami (FL)

Opponent: Duke

Performance: One INT, one SAFETY, won by three

Riley Neal, Ball State

Opponent: Massachusetts

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 10

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State

Opponent: Georgia State

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), one FUM, won by 14

2015 Standings

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 2

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

P.J. Walker, Temple: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Philip Ely, Toledo: 2

A.J. Schurr, Army: 1

Travis Wilson, Utah: 1

Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 1

Justin Thomas, Georgia Tech: 1

Jake Rudock, Michigan: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Kevin Hogan, Stanford: 1

Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt: 1

Lamar Jackson, Louisville: 1

Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1

Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1

Riley Neal, Ball State: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech: 1

Matt Johns, Virginia: 1

Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1

Chase Litton, Marshall: 1

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1

Quinton Flowers, USF: 1

Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1

Jake Coker, Alabama: 1

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1

Malik Rosier, Miami (FL): 1

DeShone Kizer, Notre Dame: 1

Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1

Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1

Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1

Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1

Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1

Thomas Sirk, Duke: 1