I’m not sure how both TCU and Baylor managed to
avoid playing any teams of substance until November again, but the Big 12
schedule-makers sure seem to be gaming the system right now. While Alabama gets
a nasty SEC opener in Ole Miss, USC meets Stanford in Week Three and even
Michigan and Michigan State play in early October, the Big 12 favorites keep
chugging along, absentmindedly tossing patsies like Kansas and Iowa State to
the side.
The question is, at what point does this hurt the
Big 12? There’s no way such blatant schedule manipulation should be rewarded;
the conference is weak enough as it is without fraudulently inflated records.
We’ve reached Week Eight, the midpoint of the college football season, and it’s
time for a total overhaul of what we know compared to what we thought we knew
two months ago.
I doubt anyone was surprised with Stanford
bludgeoning UCLA on Thursday night, but Boise State’s eight-turnover debacle
against Utah State the next day was somewhat mind-boggling. LSU got a quality
win over Florida, while Utah survived a challenge from Arizona State to remain
undefeated as well.
Memphis thoroughly embarrassed Ole Miss, bringing
the total of unbeaten (and overlooked) American teams to three: Houston, Temple
and the Tigers. There’s an interesting subplot brewing here that might throw a
wrench into the Playoff come December. Should a 13-0 AAC squad – the American
expanded to 12 schools this year and plays a championship game – make the final
four, particularly if that team is Memphis? With how mediocre some of the Power
Five leagues have looked, it might be the right call.
With that in mind, what if Michigan State runs the
table? The Spartans have been pretty unimpressive so far this season, needing a
lucky bad throw to beat Oregon and an all-time screw-up to top rival Michigan
this week. There’s a reason this team has dropped all the way down to seventh
despite remaining unbeaten. If MSU goes 13-0 (or even 12-1, with a win over
Ohio State), would the Spartans really be that deserving? The Big Ten opponents
MSU will have faced aren’t much scarier than the AAC ones a team such as
Memphis would have beaten. Time will tell if we need to make that decision, I
suppose.
Playoff Poll
It’s time to blow it up. Ohio State hasn’t played
like a top team. Neither has Michigan State, nor TCU.
First Tier
Utah
Michigan State/Ohio State
LSU
Clemson/Florida State
I don’t think the Utes are the best team in the
country, but they have the best resume. Ohio State and Michigan State need to
be grouped together, as only one will make the CFP anyway. LSU will
probably lose to Alabama, but until then the Tigers are undefeated; Clemson and
FSU are in the same boat as the Big Ten squads.
Second Tier
TCU/Baylor
Alabama
Stanford
Neither the Horned Frogs nor the Bears have beaten a
single team ranked at any point this season. I doubt both will escape Norman
unscathed in November. Alabama is creeping up, again, and looks like the best
team in the country, again. Stanford is the best-looking team right now outside
of the Crimson Tide.
Third Tier
Notre Dame
Oklahoma State
Memphis/Houston/Temple
Here’s the thing: the AAC teams won’t be typical
outsiders with an unbeaten campaign. Temple throttled Penn State and gets Notre
Dame soon. Memphis and Houston have to play each other AND Navy (a
top-25-caliber team) still, and the Tigers knocked off Ole Miss with ease. The
Rebels, as you may recall, beat Alabama.
Pac-12 Report
Oregon survives to another day (in the Pac-12 race)
and another year (versus Washington)! That’s what we’re taking away from this
weekend, right? No? Okay, let’s detour…
Stanford looks awesome right now. I had no delusions
about UCLA actually winning on The Farm, but the flurry the Cardinal unleashed
Thursday night was very impressive. USC proved it wasn’t all Sark’s fault by
flopping in the fourth quarter at Notre Dame, Washington State hammered Oregon
State and Arizona... needed a monster final frame to escape Boulder.
Interesting.
I had expected Colorado’s best chance to get a
conference win would be this upcoming week at OSU, but it nearly came early. As
it is, I think the Buffaloes will win in Corvallis. CU has continued to improve
week by week and finally seems ready to break that ugly losing streak. The
Beavers, on the other hand, appear to be the league’s worst team. That first
half against Wazzu was really bad.
There’s a truly delightful matchup Thursday evening
in Pasadena, when UCLA takes on Cal in a desperation game for the Bruins. The
Bears are the ranked team here (and rightfully so), but UCLA is favored for a
reason. There’s a lot of talent on that squad. Even though the Bruins haven’t
lived up to expectations, they’re still dangerous – and quite capable of
ruining the Bears’ season.
WSU and Arizona get things started on Saturday in
Tucson, a place that saw one of Mike Leach’s biggest triumphs as the head
Cougar: a 24-17 win in 2013 over the favored Wildcats that helped get Wazzu to
bowl eligibility. Both teams are at a turning point and could really use the
win entering the second half of Pac-12 play. ‘Zona seems like the safer bet,
but the Cougars are only a few plays away from being 6-0.
Utah is at USC for a game that promised a lot more
in the preseason that it seems capable of delivering now. The Trojans are still
favored, which isn’t surprising given the pedigree of their roster, but does
anyone actually expect this team to come through? Utah has been shaky at times,
yes, but SC has just been so underwhelming. And yet, despite myself, I’d take
the Trojans too. I’m not sure what it is about their intoxicating
talent-to-actual results ratio, but I have a hard time believing this group
won’t come together at some point. Even against a team that’s actually come
through on the field like Utah.
Washington – Stanford has been a marvelous matchup the past few seasons. The Huskies knocked off the Cardinal in Seattle in 2012, lost by three in Palo Alto a year later and then by seven last season
at home. It’s been a tight series and could be again this year thanks to the
Washington D,, which ranks first in the conference in total defense. The
Cardinal should win handily, but they should have done that a few times before
in recent memory, too.
Heisman Watch
Not a lot changed this week. There’s still a runaway
candidate, which gives this race a similar feeling to last season.
Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette had an average performance by his
standards: 180 yards, two touchdowns, against one of the nation’s best defenses.
Trevone Boykin, QB, TCU
With 400 yards and four scores against no
interceptions, Boykin holds strong at second. It doesn’t help that it came against Iowa
State, though.
Ezekiel Elliott, RB Ohio State
Elliott rushed for 150 yards and a TD, but was
upstaged by QB J.T. Barrett’s 100 yards and two scores. Give Elliott credit for
holding this offense together, though.
Random Thoughts and Observations
The Big 12, suspicious scheduling aside, has hit the
jackpot this year. The conference has played out exactly the way commissioners
dream their league will, with a clear lower class and a clear upper class that
should provide a huge boost as we enter the stretch run.
Everyone expected TCU and Baylor to be elite. The
jury is still out on both schools, thanks to TCU’s inconsistency and Baylor
having played nobody, but that’s not important. What matters is that both teams
are undefeated and highly ranked – the perception of quality is of infinitely
greater value. With both Oklahoma schools ranked as well, the conference is
even better shape.
Had OU simply shown up for the Texas game, the Big
12 would have four schools 6-0 or better, all undefeated in league play, all
ranked in the top 15. Now, this requires some major scheduling shenanigans –
I’d love to hear an attempt at an explanation of how, exactly, NONE of these teams have played – but it’s clearly
to the league’s benefit to have three schools at the bottom all 0-3 in Big 12
play. Everyone beats up on those teams, gets free wins, and avoids playing
difficult completion until later, when they’re all ranked.
It’s a formula the SEC has used to great effect in
recent years, though that’s not entirely fair, because the SEC is, ultimately,
a much stronger conference. The Big 12 has just figured out how to game the
scheduling equation to its benefit. The problem is that the BCS no longer exists.
Having two 11-1 teams cost the Big 12 a spot in the Playoff last season, and
with an actual human committee deciding the Final Four, the formula may no
longer work.
2015 Stanzi Awards
It was one of the quietest Stanzi weeks in memory,
with just three weekly winners, but Army’s A.J. Schurr made “Schurr” his
wouldn’t be a forgettable one. He threw nearly as many passes to the defense
(two) as his receivers (three) in a mere eight attempts operating the Black
Knights’ triple option… against FCS foe Bucknell. Congratulations, A.J.!
You have the most impressive single Stanzi of the season! Temple’s P.J. Walker
also completed his second Stanzi to move up on the leaderboard.
Week Seven Awards
Quinton Flowers, USF
Opponent: Connecticut
Performance: Two INT, won by eight
A.J. Schurr, Army
Opponent: Bucknell
Performance: Two INT, won by seven
P.J. Walker, Temple
Opponent: UCF
Performance: One INT (for TD), one FUM
2015 Standings
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 3
Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2
Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2
P.J. Walker, Temple: 2
Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2
A.J. Schurr, Army: 1
Travis Wilson, Utah: 1
Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1
Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1
Johnny McCrary, Vanderbilt: 1
Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1
Patrick Towles, Kentucky: 1
Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1
Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 1
Jeff Driskel, Louisiana Tech: 1
Matt Johns, Virginia: 1
Matt Linehan, Idaho: 1
Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1
Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1
Baker Mayfield,
Oklahoma: 1
Chase Litton, Marshall:
1
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1
Quinton Flowers, USF: 1
Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1
Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1
Jake Coker, Alabama: 1
Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1
Max Wittek: Hawai’i: 1
Maty Mauk: Missouri: 1
Michael Birdsong, Marshall: 1
Tanner Mangum, BYU: 1
Thomas Sirk, Duke: 1
Philip Ely, Toledo: 1
There's so much more goodness to come.
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