Duck Down

Well, then. It was an illuminating Week Four, thanks mostly to the events that occurred in the Pac-12. Outside of the west coast action, there were plenty of entertaining matches up and down the weekend slate. Memphis and Cincinnati kicked things off with a barn-burner on Thursday night, while Stanford outlasted a game Oregon State squad on Friday. Then came the shockers.

Co-third-ranked TCU and Ole Miss both got scares of varying degrees. The Horned Frogs, who have been tremendously disappointing thus far, got an extremely lucky tip to beat Texas Tech, while the Rebels survived a bit of an Alabama hangover by beating Vanderbilt. Ole Miss has a great win to its credit, but I’m still not sold on either of those teams.

UCLA got a highly misleading blowout of Arizona on its resume, which I’ll go into later. Northwestern continued to live on the edge with another close win, this time over Ball State. Duke and Michigan pulled off huge upsets (over Georgia Tech and BYU, respectively), Texas managed to lose another game in improbable fashion (as did Tennessee), and Auburn proved to be exactly as overrated as we thought it was with a second consecutive loss.

Of course, all of this paled in comparison to the stunning result in Eugene, where Utah handed Oregon its worst loss in more than a decade. This game requires a lot more analysis, which is coming later. Rest assured, though; the Pac-12 might have changed dramatically in the last week.

So as we head into October and the true end of non-conference play, it appears the only thing we know is that we know nothing. The weekend holds intrigue again, with a couple of very high-profile games, including some teams facing make-or-break contests.

South Carolina and Missouri start SEC action early, with the loser probably removed from the division race. Surprising West Virginia and Oklahoma teams collide in Norman for a fun Big 12 opener, while Minnesota is at Northwestern for a Big Ten matchup that should provide a lot of insight as to whether the league will be more than a two-team race this season. Boston College at Duke could provide the same for the ACC.

Fresh off a near-upset of TCU, Texas Tech travels to Baylor, which could either be a big upset or an ugly hangover game for the Red Raiders. The big one is Alabama at Georgia, a rare contest in which the Crimson Tide are not favored. I think the Bulldogs are the better team, but it feels very dangerous to pick ‘Bama to lose two games in a row.

Washington State is at newly ranked Cal in a game that promises to light up the scoreboard, while Ole Miss takes on upstart Florida (the Gators are 4-0) in The Swamp. In primetime, we get Notre Dame at Clemson, with the Tigers coming off an underwhelming performance last week but facing a very banged-up Fighting Irish squad. It’s a great lineup for Week Five.

Playoff Poll

There’s a big shakeup after Oregon’s seismic loss. How should Michigan State – previously the most decorated team in the country – be judged after what Utah did? Ohio State has been mediocre against weak competition, and TCU and Ole Miss both looked bad last week. It’s time to reset and rebuild the rankings.

First Tier

Ohio State

Ole Miss

Georgia

Utah

Don’t worry, I feel weird moving Utah this high, too. But here’s why: The opening win over Michigan looks a lot better after the Wolverines dominated BYU; the road thrashing of Oregon is much more impressive than Michigan State’s close home win, and TCU should have lost last week.

Second Tier

TCU

Alabama

Michigan State

Oregon’s loss kills Michigan State. The Spartans haven’t been that impressive overall, and their poor performance against the Ducks putrid pass defense speaks volumes. Alabama has a chance to make a statement against Georgia.

Third Tier

Baylor

Clemson

Florida State

Oklahoma

Seems about right. I’ve held off on Notre Dame because of the Irish’s injuries; with a win at Clemson this week, they would move into the second tier – at least. UCLA has done nothing to this point to garner respect, and the only reason Baylor is here is because of how good the Bears have been the last few years.

Pac-12 Report

A quick recap before we get to the news that matters. Stanford’s slogging victory over Oregon State did nothing to assuage fears that the win over USC was a bit flukey. UCLA’s big win over Arizona looked impressive, but it had all the same hallmarks of a faux-Bruins blowout the likes of which we’ve seen before: turnovers leading to misleading margins of victory, injuries to the other team’s best player, etc. The Bruins are going to have to earn respect after their flops the last few seasons.

Colorado got a nice win to move to 3-1, while Cal got an improbable turnover to down Washington move to 4-0. Hooray Cal! The Golden Bears are ranked for the first time since 2009. USC also essentially ended any hope Arizona State had at a special season with a beatdown in Tempe.

So… about that Utah – Oregon game. There were signs, yes. The Ducks’ pass defense had looked bad against Eastern Washington (though curiously, not against Michigan State), and the offense hadn’t quite been its usual prolific self through three games. A home conference opener, though, seemed to be the thing to put things right.

Well, it wasn’t. And things might not ever be “right” again in Eugene, at least as far as the Duck Dynasty is concerned. We only get these kind of games once in a very great while, so I’ll try to put it in perspective for those who might warn against overreactions.

UO allowed Utah to rack up 62 points and win by six touchdowns, all within the confines of the cauldron of noise that is Autzen Stadium. Over the past seven seasons, Oregon was 80-14, averaged two losses per season and never won fewer than ten games. The Ducks have won 11 games in each of the past five seasons, the nation’s longest streak. When Oregon lost, it was by close margins and/or on the road; a 44-10 loss at USC in 2008 was the worst result in that span, and only once since then was UO truly blown out (42-16 at Arizona in 2013).

There have been exactly three times in the past 25 years when the Pac-12 has seen the balance of power shift in the conference. The first was on October 22, 1994, when Oregon’s famous pick-six turned back dominant Pac-10 power Washington and sent the Ducks on a skyrocketing course of success for the next two decades. October 26, 2002 was the second, when UO passed the mantle on to USC at the beginning of the Trojan Dynasty. The third came on October 31, 2009, when the Ducks snatched the title back from the Trojans with a dominating win on Halloween night.

I was there for the Fall of Troy. I remember how much faster, stronger, smarter Oregon looked than the vaunted Trojans. Last week’s Utah – Oregon game carried the same hallmarks. That’s not to say the Utes are destined to go on to unprecedented success, as the conference is stronger now than it was in any of those previous eras. But it seems fairly safe to say that Oregon’s run has ended, moving us into a new Pac-12. The last time Oregon’s secondary was this bad was in 2003, when poor pass defense doomed UO into years of mediocre malaise (before the arrival of Chip Kelly).

It’s a sad state of affairs for Duck fans, but it’s an exciting day for the league. From 2010-2013 the two best teams in the conference, every season, were Oregon and Stanford. The Ducks were on top in 2010, 2011 and 2014, Stanford won the conference in 2012 and 2013. The two North Division foes dominated the South each season, winning every conference championship game to this point. Last year, the South was the better division for the first time; this season, it appears poised to actually win the league.

Who will it be? Utah, UCLA or USC, though it’s anyone’s guess as to which one. As unlikely as it seems after September, Oregon or Stanford could make a run and still win the Pac-12. But after the Utah loss (and Stanford’s performance at Northwestern), all bets are off.

This weekend kicks off with a delightful firecracker of a game, as WSU travels to Cal to reignite the most defense-free series in the nation. Last season’s matchup saw the teams combine for 1,400 yards and 119 points, only to end in a shanked Cougars field goal. Cal should have the upper hand here at home, but with these offenses you can never be sure.

Arizona State gets one last chance to save its season at UCLA, and it’s not really a stretch to say Arizona faces the same situation at Stanford. Neither Arizona school can afford to start 0-2 in conference play in the deep South, but there’s a reason the California schools are both favored by two TD’s. Oregon likewise has a must-win at Colorado, but this should be merely a formality – lose here, and the Ducks season will REALLY be over.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I sincerely hope Boise State’s hammering of Virginia on national TV was enough to end the ridiculous narrative surrounding the Cavaliers. UVA was beat badly by UCLA in Week One, then on a miracle TD a week later versus Notre Dame. This week they suffered their worst loss yet, getting a close win over FCS opponent William and Mary in between. For some reason, both the Bruins’ and Fighting Irish’s victories were treated as big wins. Why? Virginia is a bad team. It has been a bad team for years. Notice that UCLA and ND are both in the top 10 of the polls. Now notice that neither has even cracked my third tier. There’s a reason for this.

I continue to be skeptical of LSU. The Tigers got a close win over an average Mississippi State team, then blew out what has proved to be a highly overrated Auburn team before winning close at Syracuse last week. Leonard Fournette is great, sure, but the passing game once again looks too anemic for LSU to truly contend. Brandon Harris has thrown for 302 yards in three games. There’s no way that gets it done against Alabama and Ole Miss.

It’s been said more a few times this week, but Georgia really needs to beat Alabama. The Bulldogs have had some talented squads that didn’t live up to potential and a couple that were victimized by the SEC’s divisional scheduling, but the excuses have to end. UGA is at home. Alabama looks vulnerable. Georgia has to win this game.

2015 Stanzi Awards

It was another banner Stanzi week, with seven ugly performances on record. Northwestern’s Clatyon Thorson has tied for the lead with back-to-back Stanzis! I’ve modified the weekly standings to better reflect the current leaders and given this award the special section it deserved. Here is the Week Five update.

Week Four awards

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: Two INT, won by 11

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern

Opponent: Ball State

Performance: One INT, two FUM, won by five

Thomas Sirk, Duke

Opponent: Georgia Tech

Performance: Two INT, won by 14

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State

Opponent: Texas

Performance: Two INT, one FUM (for TD), won by three

Chris Laviano, Rutgers

Opponent: Kansas

Performance: Two INT, won by 13

Chase Litton, Marshall

Opponent: Kent State

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic

Opponent: Charlotte

Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by 10

2015 Standings

Jeremy Johnson, Auburn: 2

Mitch Leidner, Minnesota: 2

Clayton Thorson, Northwestern: 2

Hayden Moore, Cincinnati: 1

Josh Rosen, UCLA: 1

Dane Evans, Tulsa: 1

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State: 1

Chad Kelly, Ole Miss: 1

P.J. Walker, Temple: 1

Matt Johns, Virginia: 1

Matt Linehan, Idaho: 1

Chris Laviano, Rutgers: 1

Jaquez Johnson, Florida Atlantic: 1

Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma: 1

Chase Litton, Marshall: 1

Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1

Cody Clements, South Alabama: 1

Kendall Hinton, Wake Forest: 1

Patrick Mahomes, Texas Tech: 1

Ah, what a time to be alive! When summer turns to fall, and a young Stanzi in the making throws his first pick-six. We truly live in interesting times.