Working 3-3-5

National Overview

What a time to be a college football fan. The system is changing from the inside out, there will soon be a fourth division consisting solely of power schools and the inaugural playoff is nearly here, while the level of play has, if anything, risen this season. A delightful rivalry week from sunup to sundown (and well into the night) delivered as the exclamation point on a remarkable 2014. Once again we got shocking upsets and emotional finales, and for the first time this year, some clarity.

Fact: The four playoff contestants will hail from four different leagues (as they should). The SEC’s hopes of squeezing a second team into the final four disappeared with Mississippi State’s Egg Bowl loss, and for a moment it seemed Alabama would doom the conference by going down as well. Ah, but the Crimson Tide survived the Iron Bowl and advanced, saving the SEC’s bacon (sorry, Arkansas) for at least one more week. More on this in a moment.

Florida State, once again, was awful, this time gagging out a 24-19 victory over hapless Florida. Oregon dominated Oregon State, but now must face a familiar foe – Arizona – after the Wildcats won the Duel in the Desert and UCLA flopped in face-palmingly familiar fashion against Stanford. Georgia also went down to Georgia Tech, part of an ugly 0-4 weekend for the SEC against traditional ACC rivals, but fortunately Missouri secured the East to save the SEC from total embarrassment.

The reason those contests were significant is because of the danger they now pose to their respective conferences. The Pac-12 is relatively safe; if Oregon avenges its earlier loss, the Ducks are a shoo-in, while Arizona would have a very strong case for the playoff with a second UO upset. The SEC and ACC are in a much more precarious position. If ‘Bama loses to Missouri or FSU falls to Georgia Tech, the underdogs wouldn’t make the playoff. I think one of those scenarios is much more likely than the other, and ultimately I’ll pick both the Tide and Seminoles to win anyway. Still, we’re two weird upsets from an apocalyptic shakeup that would rattle the committee to its core.

But what of the fourth spot? This is where things get very interesting. If Baylor beats Kansas State the Bears will be the undisputed Big 12 champions, regardless of whatever silly language exists in the conference’s tiebreaking rules. An 11-1 Big 12 champ would be hard to deny. So would a 12-1 Big Ten champ, if Ohio State knocks off Wisconsin. The Big Ten is weaker than the Big 12, but it’s not that big a gap, and the extra win could boost the Buckeyes’ resume. Of course, that’s assuming the committee still gives OSU the benefit of the doubt after quarterback J.T. Barrett’s season-ending injury. Wacky scenarios abound.

There are quite a few good games this week outside of the conference championships. It’s a shame UCF – ECU doesn’t have American championship implications, because the Knights and Pirates are both good teams. Catch that one on Thursday, it’s the only thing on. Friday has the MAC title game rematch of Bowling Green – Northern Illinois and the Pac-12 Championship, which should be a barn-burner. More on that in the Pac-12 section.

Saturday brings the good stuff, like the Conference USA Championship (Louisiana Tech – Marshall), another solid AAC matchup with Houston – Cincinnati and potentially the game of the week when Kansas State meets Baylor. There’s also Alabama – Mizzou in the SEC Championship, Florida State – Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship and Wisconsin – Ohio State for the Big Ten title. Lots on the line. Should be great.

Playoff Poll

It’s gotten harder in some ways to separate clumps of teams, but there are couple of clear delineations that can be made. Oregon and Alabama are 1-2 in some order, FSU is third, and the rest is a mess.

College Football Playoff

1) Alabama vs. 4) Baylor

2) Oregon vs. 3) Florida State

Gave the Tide the nod this week, as beating Auburn is a more impressive feat than round-housing Oregon State, even if ‘Bama was on the ropes for three quarters against a team that finished .500 in conference play. Oregon sits above the ‘Noles, who looked awful again in victory over a bad team. Baylor holds onto the coveted four spot, pending a K-State win this week.

Second Tier

TCU

Ohio State

TCU is praying for KSU to knock off the Baylor team it should have beat. At 11-1 with a true conference title, the Horned Frogs would be in. Ohio State still has just the one loss, but now has a huge asterisk. How will the committee view the team without its QB? What if the Buckeyes struggle, but still win the Big Ten? I think they’re on the outside looking in unless there’s an upset.

Third Tier

Arizona

At two losses it didn’t feel right to include ‘Zona with TCU and OSU, but the opportunity is there. With a win this week the Wildcats would be 12-2, Pac-12 champs and hold wins over Oregon (twice), Utah and Arizona State, with both losses (USC and UCLA) pretty forgivable. It would probably take one more upset (like Georgia Tech over FSU), but don’t count this team out. They backdoored their way into the South title and can do it with the playoff, too.

Pac-12 Report

Well, then. After all the preseason speculation about USC and UCLA, whether ASU could stay relevant, whether Utah could ever become relevant… Arizona is the South winner. Congrats to the Wildcats. They earned it, beating Oregon in Eugene and taking out their rivals in the finale to reap the benefit of UCLA’s choke job. This is the worst matchup for UO in the conference (which I’ll get into momentarily) and ‘Zona had to survive a gauntlet to get here. Job well done.

Oregon took a slightly less perilous path to the North title, clinching with two weeks to spare thanks to minor collapses by Stanford and Washington, ostensibly the Ducks’ most formidable division foes. UO wrapped up a dominant seven-game stretch with a 28-point win over Oregon State where the only real concern was health going into the Arizona rematch. The chance for redemption is pretty appealing.

Arizona State has to be kicking itself after dropping not one but two chances to return to the Pac-12 Championship. The Oregon State loss hurt, but the Sun Devils got another shot when UCLA went down to Stanford. Instead, it was Arizona that took advantage. That has to hurt. UCLA is in much the same boat, as the Bruins completed a massively disappointing 9-3 campaign that bounced up and down and ultimately went as far as their overhyped QB could carry them. Which is to say, not very far. Kudos to Stanford for rebounding and ending the year on a strong note, though. The Cardinal beat two of their traditional rivals, Cal and UCLA, to end the year.

Cal’s loss to BYU was painful on both a personal level (the Bears really deserved a bowl bid) and a wide-ranging level (the Pac-12 could have used another postseason squad), but fortunately Utah avoided a major upset to Colorado and USC represented the league well by shredding Notre Dame. Washington also helped out by thrashing Washington State to reach eight wins again. The conference finished the year in strong position and managed to get its two best teams to the title game (something not every league did).

So… about that Wildcats – Ducks rematch. It’s certainly a good matchup and should make for a great game. As I said earlier in the year, Arizona presents a special challenge for Oregon. The ‘Cats unusual 3-3-5 stack defense, a RichRod staple since his time at West Virginia, is the worst possible formation for UO to attack. The weaknesses of the 3-3-5 are in its front; the lack of bulk with only three linemen and three linebackers is exploitable by offenses that can effectively power the ball downhill. That’s really not Oregon’s specialty, as the Ducks like to spread defenses out and run laterally – or at least semi-laterally – with the read option game.

Unfortunately for UO, that’s exactly what the 3-3-5 (essentially a “spread defense”) is designed to combat. By throwing an extra defensive back on the field, Arizona can match up speed with speed and run with the Ducks (pretty effectively, I might add) while forcing individual skill players to beat their man, bringing pressure from all angles all the while. It’s a funky, rarely seen base defense, which adds to the confusion offensive players feel when facing it. Blocking assignments shift, coverages look different and a small mistake can lead to a blown-up play. It’s really not surprising that, down four O-linemen, Oregon looked bad against this defense in October. For more information, here are some helpful links about the 3-3-5.

However, that’s just one side of the coin, and the other offense/defense matchup is just as important. To be frank, ‘Zona has bludgeoned UO with the run game the past two meetings, primarily through the same zone-read concepts Oregon has used for seven years. There’s no excuse for it; UA has simply won at the point of attack more often than not and allowed its talented ball-carriers to reach the second level unmolested. That has to change if Oregon wants to win this game. The Ducks are too talented to let the same thing happen three straight times.

If Oregon can in fact slow the run game and make the Wildcats one-dimensional, its odds of winning will improve dramatically. Anu Solomon has had an excellent freshman season for Arizona, but he is still a freshman and has made plays from time to time that show his age and inexperience. Without a running attack to lean on, his job will become much more difficult, and he’ll be more prone to mistakes and turnovers. Oregon needs to force Solomon into that kind of game to control how he plays. If ‘Zona starts rolling on the ground, he can pick the Ducks apart. To win this game, UO has to set the defensive tone early and establish that nothing will come easy for the Wildcats offense.

Who wins? Oregon seemed to have a “Stanford problem” for a while, now it appears to have an “Arizona problem.” Both opponents presented a bad matchup stylistically for the Ducks, for more or less opposite reasons. There’s a very good chance Arizona comes out and has a repeat of its performance earlier in the year. The Wildcats are good, fast and matchup well with UO, which has a lot of injuries and will be missing at least a couple of important parts. It’s a recipe for disaster for the Ducks.

However, I will stubbornly pick Oregon to win. It’s hard enough to beat a team twice in one season; it’s even harder when that team is demonstrably better than you. The Ducks are better than Arizona. That’s a fact. They’re more talented, more experienced and have possibly the best player in country on their side. UO will have a healthier offensive line in this meeting (does anyone think Hroniss Grasu really won’t play?) and should be able to run the ball more consistently inside, where the Wildcats are weakest. It’s the perfect redemption storyline and I think the Ducks will fight tooth and claw to achieve it and accomplish the goals that have eluded them the past two years.

Heisman Watch

Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon

The Pac-12 single-season touchdown record, the career record (in three years) and just two interceptions. Barring a meltdown against Arizona, Mariota will win.

Melvin Gordon, RB, Wisconsin

Gordon can still break Barry Standers regular-season record (although that will probably be after the ceremony, as he needs about 400 yards). If he does it against Ohio State, this becomes interesting.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I’m not sure what the committee’s fascination is with TCU. The Horned Frogs are good, no doubt. But leaping to third over Florida State seems a step too far. TCU is not in the same category as Alabama and Oregon, and while the Frogs should have beat Baylor, they didn’t. The Bears hold that tiebreaker and there is absolutely no way TCU’s non-conference win over Minnesota makes up for that head-to-head result. We’ll see what happens this week, because if Baylor struggles with a Kansas State team TCU trounced, things become harder to dissect. As it stands right now, though, the Bears should definitely have the edge based on that win in October.

I understand that Alabama’s Amari Cooper has been outstanding this year, but the Heisman talk needs to go away. Voters are not going to give a receiver the award in 2014. It would take a record-breaking season, which, by the way, Cooper does not have. His numbers are comparable to Oregon State’s Brandin Cooks last year. Cooks won the Biletnikoff as the nation’s best WR, but he wasn’t remotely in the Heisman discussion, because that would have been ridiculous. What’s the difference with Cooper? That’s right, he plays for Alabama. Sorry, but it’s not happening. That doesn’t mean Cooper isn’t great and the best receiver in the country, but being the best player on a No. 1 team that just doesn’t have any other candidates isn’t enough.

Stanzi Watch

Double Stanzi! Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty threw two picks to go with his absurd eight TD’s, but was nearly eclipsed by Marshall’s Rakeem Cato, who had four interceptions and seven scores. What a game! We had another nine Stanzis this week, bringing the competition more or less to a close. But wait! Some of the winners this week had won previously, so the finalists have to be updated again. In the end, no one is catching Jameis Winston, though. The FSU QB incredibly picked up his fifth Stanzi of the season, blowing away all the competition. This award might need to be renamed. Here are this week’s winners and the finalists.

J.D. Sprague, Ohio

Opponent: Miami (OH)

Performance: Two INT, won by three

Tommy Armstrong, Jr., Nebraska

Opponent: Iowa

Performance: Two INT, won in overtime

Brandon Doughty, Western Kentucky

Opponent: Marshall

Performance: Two INT, won in OT

Justin Holman, UCF

Opponent: USF

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by 16

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech

Opponent: Virginia

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by four

Jameis Winston, Florida State

Opponent: Florida

Performance: Four INT, won by five

Josh Dobbs, Tennessee

Opponent: Vanderbilt

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Christian Stewart, BYU

Opponent: Cal

Performance: One INT, one FUM, won by seven

Brian Burrell, Fresno State

Opponent: Hawai’i

Performance: Two INT, won by seven

Jameis Winston, Florida State: 5

Logan Woodside, Toledo: 4

Everett Golson, Notre Dame: 3

Justin Holman, UCF: 3

Dak Prescott, Mississippi State: 2

James Knapke, Bowling Green: 2

Fredi Knighten, Arkansas State: 2

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 2

Anu Solomon, Arizona: 2

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 2

Grant Hedrick, Boise State: 2

Davis Webb, Texas Tech: 2

Nick Mullens, Southern Miss: 2

Cooper Rush, CMU: 2

C.J. Brown, Maryland: 2

Michael Brewer, Virginia Tech: 2

Brian Burell, Fresno State: 2

J.T. Barrett, Ohio State: 2

I don’t even know what to say at this point. 2014 has brought such an embarrassment of riches. I can’t wait to see what will happen in the final week of the season. There’s potential for so much more to come.