Bowl Week 1 has come

It’s bowl season! This year, thanks to the introduction of a “Plus-one” format, there are more postseason games than ever before. I hope everyone wanted to see 6-6 South Alabama and 7-6 Bowling Green in the Raycom Media Camellia Bowl! No? 6-7 Fresno State and 7-5 Rice in the Hawai’i Bowl? Well, there’s just no pleasing some people.

As usual, I’ll have to break down the bowls by week to preview; there’s simply too many of them to analyze all at once. Each game will, as usual, be rated on a scale of watchability. I’ll indicate when I think one team is more likely to win, but bowls are a crapshoot in that regard. It’s impossible to know which coaches are going to secretly stab their teams in the back the week before and run to greener pastures, which programs feel slighted and want to prove something and which teams honestly don’t care. I can only go on what I’ve seen. Which is generally quite a lot. All listed times are Pacific, because why would they not be?

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

Nevada (7-5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)

December 20, 8:00 a.m.

Bowl season kicks off with a relatively even matchup of decent but forgettable mid-majors. Nevada is the better team in my mind; the Wolf Pack went 4-4 in what turned out to be a pretty rough-and-tumble Mountain West and played two Pac-12 teams along the way, beating WSU and barely losing to South champion Arizona. Nevada also lost to Boise State and Colorado State (the two best teams in the MWC) by a total of 12 points. Cody Fajardo is as good as it gets for mid-major quarterbacks. I do have a soft spot for Lafayette – the Ragin’ Cajun mascot as ridiculous, and QB Terrance Broadway is a delight – but the Sun Belt is pretty weak. These teams play almost identical football, it just isn’t that great of an exhibition.

Watchability: 3. The QB’s swung this up one notch.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl

Utah State (9-4) vs. UTEP (7-5)

December 20, 11:20 a.m.

There were so many opportunities for Utah State the past few seasons on which the Aggies barely failed to capitalize. Many of them involved fallen star QB Chuckie Keeton. Alas, Keeton’s career is over, and so we too must move on. Neither USU or Texas El-Paso beat anyone of note this season or played anyone of quality to a close game. The Mountain West is stronger than Conference USA, but the real difference is in the division schedule the teams played. In a game with anemic offenses, I’d lean toward the one known commodity – the Utah State defense. The Aggies from the west (sort of) have made defense their rallying cry since Gary Andersen was the head coach, and the Miners don’t have that same tradition. This will probably be a close, highly unwatchable game.

Watchability: 1. Not going to be pretty.

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl

Utah (8-4) vs. Colorado State (10-2)

December 20, 12:30 p.m.

It feels like Prince should be involved in this somehow. Anyway, the Utes are coming off their most successful season in the Pac-12 yet, beating UCLA and USC and going 5-4 in the brutal South despite drawing Oregon and Stanford from the North. By all accounts, eight wins should be a cause for celebration. Unfortunately, the three losses in four games (after a 6-1 start) to knock the team from championship contention hurt, and the near-disaster against Colorado in the finale didn’t help. Colorado State has been criminally underrated all season, going 10-2 in a Mountain Division that featured four nine-win squads. I think there’s a good chance the Rams win this game. CSU never got the credit it deserved this year and should be hurting after losing the finale to Air Force and its coach to Florida. Wouldn’t it be just like the Utes to come out and embarrass the Pac-12 in their first real showcase game?

Watchability: 3. The teams aren’t flashy, but they’re good top-to-bottom.

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Western Michigan (8-4) vs. Air Force (9-3)

December 20, 2:45 p.m.

WMU’s got a guy most folks have never heard of named Zach Terrell. The Broncos’ QB isn’t big, but he’s thrown for 3,000 yards and 23 touchdowns with only 10 interceptions. I like him a lot, and given the extra time Western will have to prepare for the Air Force option I almost picked him to lead the Broncos to a win here. However, there’s a lot going in the Falcons’ favor in this game. For one, it’s in Boise, which is a very familiar location for the academy. Second, not only did the Falcons earn their nine wins in the best mid-major division in the country (that Mountain Division again), they actually beat Boise State and Colorado State, the two best teams in the MWC. This isn’t a horrible mismatch, but I’ll take Air Force.

Watchability: 2. The Falcons’ bastardized triple option is interesting, but that’s about it.

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl

South Alabama (6-6) vs. Bowling Green (7-6)

December 20, 6:15 p.m.

We soldier on to the blessed end of the opening day of bowl season with a pair of .500 mid-majors very few people care about whatsoever. South Alabama (USA!) isn’t that bad, but the Jaguars aren’t really that good, either, as seen by their ugly outings against SEC opponents. Bowling Green had an underwhelming honeymoon season following its MAC championship in 2013, largely due to the collapse of what had been one the nation’s stingiest defenses. I honestly don’t know who to take here, and I honestly don’t want to know. I’m glad I saw as little of these teams as possible this year. BGSU did win the (much weaker) MAC East, but even that is a poor endorsement.

Watchability: 1. Don’t lock eyes with this game, lest it draw you in to its stupefying awfulness.

Miami Beach Bowl

BYU (8-4) vs. Memphis (9-3)

December 22, 11:00 a.m.

Now that’s more like it! BYU wasn’t the same after losing QB Taysom Hill to a broken leg midway through the season, but the Cougars are still pretty talented and have the ability to make this a good game. No comment on the team-location paring of BYU and Miami. Memphis had a great year, winning its last six and earning a share of the American title with Cincinnati and UCF, both of which the Tigers did not play, because the AAC is ridiculous. Ugh. Anyway, this is rarefied air for the Memphis program, which was a traditional doormat in the Conference USA and played much better this year despite a minor step up in competition. I really want to pick the Tigers in this game… but I have a slight lean toward BYU. I think the Cougars are more accustomed to this stage and have rallied impressively the second half of the year. Unless some crazy stuff happens in South Beach, I’ll go BYU.

Watchability: 3. A couple a quality squads here, though no real stars.

Boca Raton Bowl

Marshall (12-1) vs. Northern Illinois (11-2)

December 23, 3:00 p.m.

Wow, what did America do to get a game like this before Christmas? 23 combined wins from the two most successful mid-majors in the country this season? Sign me up. NIU continued to run roughshod over the MAC for another year, while Marshall – everyone’s preseason pick from the Group of Five to go undefeated and make a “New Year’s 6” bowl – stumbled once but otherwise provided all the offensive excitement expected. The schedules the teams played are roughly comparable; neither made any effort to spruce up slates of complete patsies. The Huskies have been one of the top mid-majors for a while, but I like Marshall in this one. The Thundering Herd are much better offensively, given that they can actually throw the ball, and also have the best player on the field in QB Rakeem Cato. It’ll probably be high-scoring and a lot of fun.

Watchability: 5. Both teams nearly reached major bowls.

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl

Navy (7-5) vs. San Diego State (7-5)

December 23, 6:30 p.m.

In a world where bowl sponsorships change yearly, I’m not sure how the S.D.C.C.U. has managed to hold onto this bowl for so long. It’s no longer the most ridiculous bowl name out there (spoilers!) but it’s certainly silly. The difference between these teams is one of offensive intent: Navy is one of the worst passing teams in football by design, as the triple option eats up most of the playbook; SDSU is simply bad at throwing the ball. The Aztecs (who will be playing at home) do have the far better defense and had to weather a Mountain West schedule. However, I can’t trust a team this anemic. If the Midshipmen’s ground attack gets rolling, SDSU will have no way to come back. I like Navy.

Watchability: 2. Support the triple option, but otherwise no.

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl

Central Michigan (7-5) vs. Western Kentucky (7-5)

December 24, 9:00 a.m.

This is a fun contrast of styles. CMU has a solid 1-2-3 punch in QB Cooper Rush, RB Thomas Rawls and WR Titus Davis and was the only MAC team to knock off Northern Illinois. The Chippewas (one of the better mascots in the sport) allowed only 23 points a game, although they did also lose to Kansas. WKU is awful defensively but an offensive juggernaut, piling up 44 points a game behind QB Brandon Doughty, who led the nation in passing yards. I’m going against tendency here and taking the Hilltoppers, who have a couple of quality wins this season, including a 67-66 upset of then-unbeaten Marshall in the finale.

Watchability: 3. The teams aren’t great, but there should be points.

Hawai’i Bowl

Fresno State (6-7) vs. Rice (7-5)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

Fresno really shouldn’t even be in a bowl game. The Bulldogs were outscored by 4.5 points per game this year, coming way down after last season’s magical run. Their inconsistent offense relies largely on RB Marteze Waller and WR Josh Harper, the defense isn’t any better than it was in 2013 and anyone who watched Fresno knows how mediocre they looked. However… Rice’s defense isn’t any better, and while the Owls’ offense is more balanced than the Bulldogs it’s hardly scary. Common sense says Rice is the better team, but I’m having a tough time taking them. Neither team beat anyone of quality, but at least Fresno played some decent teams. Losses to USC, Utah, Nebraska and Boise State are forgivable. Losses to Notre Dame and Texas A&M, two of the biggest flops in college football this year, really aren’t.

Watchability: 1. There are so many better ways to spend Christmas Eve.

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl

Illinois (6-6) vs. Louisiana Tech (8-5)

December 26, 10:00 a.m.

The Illini went 6-6 in the Big Ten, which is like going 4-8 in a real power conference. Now, Tech lost to an FCS team, which is bad, but otherwise the Bulldogs are pretty good. LTU didn’t lose in regulation to a conference opponent and should have beaten Marshall for the C-USA title. Once again, the offense is what powers the Bulldogs, though the defense has taken a bit of a step up this season. I have very little faith in Illinois; not only did the Illini finish .500 in a bad league, they got blown out in most of their losses. Illinois ended the year more than a full TD in negative plus/minus. The pick is Louisiana Tech all the way.

Watchability: 1. This is the rough stretch.

Quick Lane Bowl

Rutgers (7-5) vs. North Carolina (6-6)

December 26, 1:30 p.m.

Ugh. Neither of these teams should be in the postseason. Both the Knights and Tar Heels were outscored on the season, going a tepid 7-9 combined in their respective (bad) conferences. UNC fielded one of the worst defenses in the FBS, allowing nearly 500 yards and 39 points per game and never holding an opponent to less than 20 points. It’s not as if Rutgers was significantly better; the Knights gave up 31 points a game themselves. In this game, I’ll stick to the best unit on the field. Carolina’s offense was quite good this season once the Tar Heels settled on the dynamic Marquise Williams at QB, whereas Rutgers has again struggled to find consistency behind Gary Nova. I wouldn’t be surprised with either side winning, but in a contest with two bad defenses it’s better to go with the stronger offense.

Watchability: 3. I expect points at the expense of any semblance of defense.

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl

North Carolina State (7-5) vs. Central Florida (9-3)

December 26, 5:00 p.m.

This feels like a pretty easy one to predict. Neither team is very impressive offensively. The one strong unit in the contest is the UCF defense, which gave up a mere 18 points per game. The Knights should have breezed to an undefeated conference record, but had a bizarre meltdown at Connecticut that cost them an outright AAC title. NCSU’s defensive average looks respectable, but delving deeper shows the Wolfpack gave up a ton of points to every good team they played. The ACC isn’t very good and all this team could manage was three league wins. The key is Knights QB Justin Holman, whose mercurial play has defined this team in 2014. If he plays well, UCF ought to win in a cakewalk. If he tosses four picks like he did against UConn, it’s a different story.

Watchability: 2. ACC vs. AAC. No one really cares.

That’s it for week one of bowl season, but check back in for the stuffed week two, featuring a ridiculous 23 games culminating with the New Year’s Six and National Semifinals. The College Football Playoff (gotta work on that name) is nearly here!