In all seriousness, though… what transpired in Tuscaloosa last Saturday
may go down as historically monumental. At least two of the three remaining
eligible unbeatens must close out that way, but Alabama ’s loss to Texas A&M has opened
the door for a scenario most thought improbable at best: a BCS Championship
Game without an SEC representative.
It seemed unlikely both because of the recent dominance (six
straight titles) and because of the BCS’s bizarre history. Through a
combination of well-timed wins, fortuitous losses by other schools and national perception,
seven of the previous 12 BCS title game participants hailed from the SEC. Until
last week, Alabama
seemed the one undefeated team most likely to avoid a slip-up. That changed
when the Crimson Tide nearly/should have lost to LSU. Even so, only the most
ardent A&M homers would have anticipated what happened this Saturday.
It’s not just that ‘Bama lost, though that was clearly the
most resounding effect on the title chase. It’s the manner in which the Tide
were beaten: severely outplayed on both sides, outschemed and outlasted by the
new kids on the block in the Aggies. To get way, way ahead of things, this was
the dream outcome for Oregon , and to a lesser
extent Kansas State
The significance of this can’t be overstated. There was
always a chance a non-SEC team could win the BCS title by beating
another non-SEC team. But in that scenario the SEC could have rightfully
scoffed at the champion’s credentials. The league's supporters could argue that the SEC’s best
teams played themselves out of the game due to the conference’s overall
strength and that no team could truly be called a champion without defeating an
SEC opponent.
Texas A&M’s win changed all that. What else are the
Aggies but an up-tempo, finesse spread team? Oregon in particular benefits from this,
because the Ducks are a lot like the Aggies, only better. If UO or KSU, who
also operates largely out of the shotgun (though in a different way), wins the
BCS Championship, the SEC no longer has an argument. That’s the long-reaching
impact Johnny Football’s big day had on the national landscape – it may have
forever ended the SEC’s title streak.
Then again, perhaps the SEC will just start a new streak
next year. That’s also assuming some combination of Notre Dame, K-State and Oregon can somehow win
out. BCS history doesn’t support it. We may yet see the SEC champion (Alabama or Georgia) celebrating in Miami . There’s so much football still to be
played.
Other than the Alabama
loss, it was a fairly quiet week. Louisville
was also knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, but the Cardinals were never
in the title picture anyway. Stanford defeated Oregon
State in a de facto semifinal game for
the Pac-12 and the Big Ten saw its own race nearly get ironed out as Wisconsin clinched the Leaders division and Nebraska beat the best team left on its schedule in Penn State
This week features still more Pac-12 showdowns as Stanford
visits Oregon
and USC “travels” to UCLA. Both games will decide division titles. Rutgers also
meets Cincinnati
in a key Big East contest, though the Bearcat’s bandwagon has cooled off pretty
fast. I’m more interested in the delightful MAC race, where Toledo
and Northern Illinois meet this week to decide the West division and Kent State , Bowling Green and Ohio
are all still alive in the East. Why aren’t people watching this? They’re on
ESPN almost every night of the week, there’s no excuse!
Top 25
I struggled with a lot of these rankings. We’ve come to the
point in the season where the transitive property holds no value and
head-to-head results often make things more confusing. I’ll try to explain my choices as
best I can.
1) Kansas
State
TCU is better than Cal. That’s a simple enough reason why I
didn’t jump Oregon
over KSU, though the margin will become razor-thin this week if the Ducks beat
Stanford. Collin Klein appears to be fine and Baylor should be no trouble this
week. I have doubts about Texas ’
legitimacy, too. 12-0 is within reach.
2) Oregon
If not for the defense, both in performance and injury
concerns, I might have UO at the top of this list. The D-line, though, has been
so banged-up that for the first time this year the outcome of the Stanford game
is in doubt. Get through that one and we’ll talk about the number one spot.
3) Notre Dame
4) Ohio
State
How the OSU higher-ups must be regretting that Gator Bowl
appearance last season. To be fair, even an eligible Buckeye team would be left
out of the BCS title picture right now because of the perceived weakness of the
Big Ten. Still, getting that one extra loss in 2011 has to feel like a pretty
terrible consolation prize.
5) Alabama
It’s hard to drop a team that lost only this far. Based on
their recent play, the Tide aren’t a top-five squad. I do have faith that ‘Bama
will win out and play for – if not win – the SEC championship, though. They’re
too talented not to; they just need time to address their issues. Western
Carolina and Auburn
will help.
6) Florida
State
If only the Seminoles hadn’t settled for field goals in Raleigh . Because of the
preseason rankings, FSU could conceivably be number one across the polls right
now if not for that characteristic faceplant against N.C. State
7) Florida
The Gators flat-out should have lost to UL-Lafayette last
week. This is more or less what I’ve been waiting for – the proverbial other
shoe. Florida
played above its ability for several weeks in the middle of the season and is
clearly regressing to the level shown in the first few games.
8) LSU
I can’t give the Tigers points for beating a bad Mississippi State Alabama and Florida
right now. Zach Mettenberger might not be the worst quarterback ever; who’d have
thought?
9) Clemson
Unless Tigers can backdoor their way into the ACC title game
with a Maryland
upset of FSU, they’re stuck hoping for an at-large BCS bid. They could take a
giant step toward one by knocking off South
Carolina after Thanksgiving, though NCSU is still
dangerous this week. I think 11-1 is quite likely.
10) Texas
A&M
I hate overreacting to one game, but I had to give the
Aggies a little love after shaking the foundations of the nation’s most
fearsome conference. Who had A&M winning eight (or nine, or ten) games and
beating Alabama
before the season? Not me. Johnny Manziel is the real deal.
11) South Carolina
It was a convincing but not overwhelming victory over Arkansas on Saturday.
Regardless of what the record or ranking might show, I believe Carolina was broken by the
two crushing midseason losses and Marcus Lattimore’s brutal injury. The
Gamecocks haven’t played their best ball of late.
12) Georgia
With Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech left on the schedule,
the Bulldogs are almost assuredly headed for an 11-1 record. Yet still I say
this team, like last year, is a fraud. Since the beginning of 2011 UGA has
beaten six teams with winning records and outside of Florida this year none finished with fewer
than five losses. Translation: paper Bulldogs.
13) Oklahoma
The Sooners withstood a Baylor rally to climb to 7-2. None
of the final three matchups are too intimidating, but West
Virginia , Okie
State
14) USC
Did we witness a turning point in USC’s season? Down 17-14
in the third against ASU, the Trojans flipped the script on the Sun Devils and
dominated the second half en route to a 38-17 win. If SC beats UCLA this week
for a ticket to the Pac-12 title game, that stand may be what turns this into a
Rose Bowl season.
15) Stanford
Stanford was fortunate to beat Oregon
State and should not have the horses
to stay with Oregon
this week. However, if the Cardinal get off to a good start and aren’t forced
to throw, their ground game could really hurt the Ducks. Few teams rely on an
early lead as much as this one.
16) UCLA
The Bruins jumped out to a giant lead on the Palouse and
then held their breath as Wazzu almost came all the way back. Now comes the
moment UCLA fans have been waiting years for: a chance to knock off USC in a
truly meaningful game, a chance to play for the Pac-12 title. I’d love to see
them get a shot at it.
17) Oregon
State
Both of the Beavers’ losses have been full of
woulda-shoulda-coulda’s. OSU fans are rightfully lamenting the errors that cost
this team a 9-0 start… but it’s also worth remembering that some key breaks have
prevented this team from going 5-4. With a 9-3 regular season record likely,
the Beavs need to regroup and work on finishing games.
18) Texas
I have suspicions about this team. Still. The recent winning
streak is nice but it’s come at the expense of some bad opponents. I don’t
think the Longhorns can generate enough offense to beat K-State in the finale.
Maybe that’s something to work on in their extremely late-season off week.
19) Nebraska
We can argue about the calls in the Penn State Nebraska
won, deal with it. In doing so the Cornhuskers have essentially punched their
ticket to Indianapolis; a sure win against Minnesota this week, coupled with a
likely Michigan loss at Ohio State in their finale, will seal it, though the
Huskers can also beat Iowa to get in automatically.
20) Oklahoma
State
The Cowboys play Texas Tech this week, so the placement of
these teams really doesn’t matter. The loser will probably be out of the
rankings, though both squads are top 25-worthy. I’m going with the team I’ve
liked (but for some reason the polls have not) all season. OSU is a talented
group.
21) Texas
Tech
The Texas
game was what flipped me against the Red Raiders. Okie State Kansas .
22) Louisville
Aaaaand… splat. There went the Big East’s faint hopes for
respectability. Getting shredded by a .500 Syracuse team wasn’t what the Cardinals, or
the league, had in mind. The BCS bid is still very much in play, but I have to
say I have a little more faith in Rutgers
right now.
23) Kent
State
Chugging along at 9-1, the Golden Flashes now face the two
teams directly below them in the divisional standings. A win over Bowling Green this week will render the finale with Ohio meaningless and Kent has to be thinking 11-1. This
program has played in one bowl, the Tangerine in 1971. What a sight it will be
to see the Golden Flashes in the postseason again.
24) Northern Illinois
NIU, on the other hand, is a mid-major that has seen several
bowls, including one in each of the past four seasons. I didn’t think the
Huskies could rebound so well from last year’s personnel losses, yet here the
team sits at 6-0 in conference play. A win over Toledo this week will put NIU in the MAC
title game for the third straight season.
25) Louisiana
Tech
The Bulldogs are definitely not bad. They run the spread
better than anyone this side of Oregon
and Texas A&M. The repeated close shaves, such as last week’s
escape against FBS rookie Texas
State Utah
State
Pac-12 Report
Almost everything went right for the Pac-12 last week. It
really didn’t matter who won the Stanford – Oregon
State game, because both teams have
yet to face Oregon .
It helped that USC and UCLA both won to set up a showdown for the South title
and Washington
won to grab bowl eligibility. Utah ’s
loss severely damaged the Utes’ bowl prospects, though. The conference might
have to make due with Arizona
State
Obviously Oregon
State
On Stanford’s end, the win moved the Cardinal in position to
steal the North from Oregon
with a win this week. It shouldn’t happen; win or lose, UO is the better team
and has proved it week after week this year. However, it’s definitely true that
this is the most vulnerable Oregon
has looked in a while, and the continuing injuries to the defensive front
should have Ducks fans very worried. Stanford does one thing – run the ball.
For a time Saturday Cal
was able to do just that. I don’t expect the Cardinal to hold Oregon to less than 30, but with production
from the ground game Stanford may be able to match the Ducks in a shootout.
It’s a scary matchup for UO.
In L.A. ,
the lesser of the conference races (who would have thought that 20 years ago?)
ends as USC meets UCLA. The Bruins have been the more consistent team this
season and have outperformed expectations. Essentially, they’re the anti-USC.
I’d like to pick the home squad in this game. But I can’t shake the feeling
that USC is angry about the Oregon
game and desperate for a rematch, a rematch no intelligent Ducks fans should
want. My heart says UCLA. My head says USC.
In other action, Arizona
goes to Utah in the Utes’ last gasp for a bowl
bid (they need two wins but their final game is Colorado )
and Cal visits a wounded but angry Oregon State Washington should pick up its seventh
win at Colorado , while ASU will try for its
sixth against Washington
State
Everything in the divisional races has led up to this week. While
there’s still more drama to be had when the rivalry games are played in two
weeks’ time, this weekend will (almost definitely) decide the teams who will
play for the Pac-12 Championship. Regardless of who wins, it’s going to be a
good one.
Heisman Watch
Collin Klein, QB, Kansas
State
It will take either a superhuman effort by one of his peers
or a multi-turnover flop for Klein to fumble this thing away. Which one sounds
more likely? He isn’t the best passer and doesn’t have great speed, but there’s
no denying that he’s the most valuable player in the country.
Marqise Lee, WR, USC
I’m biting. Lee doesn’t have a real shot because of his
team’s record, but all that does is show the absurdity of the Heisman system.
He’s the most complete receiver prospect in years, essentially an all-Pro
wideout playing against kids. 223 yards per game in a BCS conference is absurd.
Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas
A&M
Once again, I hate knee-jerk reactions… but Manzial has been
good all year. I didn’t include him last week because I assumed the Alabama game would all
but torpedo his candidacy. Boy, was I wrong.
Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State
The Big Ten is bad. Let’s just get that out of the way. Now,
look at what this kid’s done this year: 27 total touchdowns (to Klein’s 31),
1,000 yards rushing (more than Klein) and 14 passing scores (also more than
Klein). Miller’s a less efficient passer, but otherwise he’s right there.
Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon
65 yards won’t doom his candidacy because he had 321 the
week before, but Barner will need more production down the stretch to justify
his case. Cal
made it a point of emphasis to remove him; will Stanford do the same?
Random Thoughts and Observations
It’s amazing to think that at one point, Oregon had both Marcus Mariota AND Johnny
Manziel committed. What if both had stayed in Eugene ? Some elite programs go entire
four-year recruiting cycles without finding a single average QB (looking at
you, LSU). UO might have had two elite signal-callers in the same class. Some
of that is luck, but it’s still crazy to consider. What would the Ducks have
done to get them both on the field?
It would be incredibly beneficial to the rankings if the
identities were revealed of the AP, Coaches’ and Harris Poll voters who still like
Mississippi State Kentucky , Tennessee and Auburn ), a trio that
still cannot account for a SINGLE conference win (combined record: 0-20). On
the strength of that garbage pile the Bulldogs rose to eleventh in the country,
then only dropped out of the rankings after suffering three blowout defeats at
the hands of Alabama ,
Texas A&M and LSU. WHAT could compel anyone to give this team a single
vote?
Louisiana Tech has won the interception derby! The Bulldogs
became the final team without an interception thrown when Alabama ’s A.J. McCarron tossed his team’s
first of the season in the first quarter against Texas A&M. For good
measure, he added another pick on fourth-and-goal to seal the game. Say this
for McCarron: when he loses games, he loses them badly.
Speaking of QB efficiency, LTU’s Colby Cameron did something
extremely impressive this week. With his sixth pass against Texas State
No comments:
Post a Comment