The national euphoria over the upcoming exclusion of the SEC
from the BCS Championship lasted all of about seven days. It appears players in
Eugene and Manhattan
started celebrating their spots in the title game a bit early, much to the
delight of the folks in South Bend and Tuscaloosa . Now all that
separates us from another all-SEC showdown is USC and Florida State
The sad thing is, the biggest winner of the weekend wasn’t
Notre Dame or Alabama or Georgia or Florida . Ultimately, it was the BCS, which
got lucky yet again when two more undefeateds went down. How does this happen,
year after year? By natural probability, this season (along with a few others)
should have ended with four unbeaten teams (one ineligible), none of which
hailed from the SEC. With the BCS on the way out, it would have been a fitting
stamp on the death of a stupid, archaic system. Instead fans got this. Again.
The odds-on favorite to clinch the top spot at the end of
the regular season is now Notre Dame, who gets to face rival USC without Matt
Barkley. Hey, another break for the Fighting Irish! Who would have thought?
Most people have long thought the Trojans would win this game; now things are
quite different.
The SEC champion – Alabama
or Georgia, barring a miracle – will most assuredly play for the BCS title, so
the big matchup appears almost set. But wait! There’s still more insanity in
play here. If Notre Dame loses to USC (unlikely, but go with it), a number of
very strange scenarios could play out.
In fact, looking at the BCS rankings, it’s possible that any
of the top 10 teams could finagle its way into the title game through a string
of upsets. Florida State could beat Florida but lose in the ACC Championship. Oregon could beat OSU
only to lose to UCLA. Just when you think this mess has finally worked itself
out, it could turn again at a moment’s notice.
You may have noticed that many of these scenarios hinge on
upsets in conference championship games, AKA the bane of college football. I’ve
long been a detractor of superconferences and divisions that enable lucrative
but pointless league title games, and this season has proved once and for all
what a farce they are. The Big 12 and ACC have both previously felt the sting
such contests can administer; this year it’s the Pac-12’s turn.
The Big 12 Championship has already seen a prospective BCS
title team knocked out at the finish line twice: in 1998, undefeated Kansas State
was set to play in the national championship before losing to Texas A&M,
while in 2007 top-ranked Missouri was blown
out by Oklahoma .
2008 saw the nightmare of three 11-1 teams in the same division (Oklahoma , Texas
and Texas Tech) who had all beaten each other. That’s not to mention the annual problem of having the two best programs in the league in Oklahoma and Texas play in the same
division, which meant they could never meet in the title game.
The ACC, having basically dropped out of the BCS title hunt
early each year for several seasons, hasn’t had it quite as bad, but can still
bemoan its own championship game flubs: 2005 saw a 10-2 Virginia Tech squad
lose to an 8-4 Florida State team it had beaten in the regular season, and last
year third-ranked Virginia Tech was blown out by Clemson with a chance to play LSU
on the line.
It is rivalry week, and watchable games abound. There’s
LSU – Arkansas, Georgia Tech – Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State, Virginia and Virginia Tech, Auburn – Alabama, Florida – FSU, Oregon – Oregon State, Arizona
– ASU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, South Carolina – Clemson, and Notre Dame –
USC. Good games all.
Top 25
1) Notre Dame
I don’t think Notre Dame is the best team in the country. The
Irish are the best undefeated team, though. The schedule hasn’t turned out to
be as difficult as everyone thought, but it’s more or less a BCS-conference
slate. If they go 12-0, this team will have earned a spot in the BCS title
game.
2) Alabama
After watching Ohio
State go to overtime against Wisconsin I’m prepared
for the Crimson Tide to retake a top-two spot. All that misery in Tuscaloosa didn’t have to
hold out too long; it took less than seven days for ‘Bama to control its own
destiny again. It’s good to be king.
3) Ohio
State
Even if this team was eligible, would it really beat out the
SEC champ? I doubt it. People have seen the Big Ten this season. It’s not good.
Struggling with Wisconsin Saturday wasn’t a
good sign. I’m still betting the Buckeyes beat Michigan and go undefeated, it’s just that
it’s hard to get excited about it.
4) Florida
State
FSU has the opportunity to prevent a second all-SEC title
game if the Seminoles can knock off Florida
at home. I’ve predicted this team would win this game before; what we’ve seen
out of Florida
the past couple of weeks hasn’t been promising. Now it’s up to the always
mentally-fragile ‘Noles to make it happen.
5) Oregon
There’s a lot more to be said about the Stanford loss, but
the cold truth is that Oregon
probably just blew the best chance it will ever get to win a national
championship. We’ll see if the disappointment lingers into this week, or if the
Ducks can rebound and beat Oregon
State
6) Florida
7) LSU
LSU has also been very unimpressive of late (though really,
this whole season). There was no way the Tigers should have beat Ole Miss last
week, though this is sort of a recurring theme with this program. The end
result is that LSU is actually still alive for the BCS title game despite two
losses.
8) Kansas
State
Without any malice whatsoever, I dropped KSU as far as I could. Losing on the road with the pressure of being number one is
one thing. Getting waxed by 4-5 Baylor is entirely another. The Wildcats should
still win the league championship, but this has to hurt.
9) Clemson
Clemson should beat South
Carolina this week to finish 11-1. The Tigers are
healthier and have played much better this season. Yet I’ve seen before what a
Gamecock team motivated to embarrass Clemson can do, which is why I have a bad
feeling about this contest. A win would likely equal a BCS bowl.
10) Texas
A&M
Speaking of BCS bowls, how about A&M? With a win over
hapless Mizzou the Aggies would finish 10-2 with a win over Alabama and losses only to top-10 teams.
It’s quite possible the SEC rookies could wind up in the Sugar Bowl if things
fall their way. Very impressive.
11) Georgia
The Bulldogs beat back fearsome Georgia Southern and now face
another state school in Georgia Tech. The Ramblin’ Wreck have played UGA close in recent years, though I doubt that will be the case here. Georgia knows two more wins will put them in Miami .
12) Stanford
If the Cardinal were to beat Oregon , I, like many others, assumed it
would be in a shootout. Actually stopping the Ducks was something Stanford
hadn’t done in long time. Yet now the team stands on the verge of a division
championship. For such a flawed team, it’s amazing what Stanford has been able
to accomplish this year.
13) UCLA
The Bruins face an interesting conundrum Saturday: go all
out to beat Stanford and possibly play Oregon
for the Pac-12 title, or play possum against the Cardinal in an effort to
surprise them the second time around. I doubt this team will want to give away
a game, but I’m not sure if they’ll win anyway.
14) Oklahoma
Someday there will be songs about the Sooners’ wild 50-49
win at West Virginia
that kept OU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. I’m not sure what this program is
doing with all its talent, but it would seem that it’s not being maximized on
the defensive side of the ball. In any case, Oklahoma is still in the hunt.
15) South Carolina
16) Oregon
State
The Beavs got Jeff Tedford fired (well, not really) and moved
into position to force a three-way tie atop the North standings. Even in that
scenario OSU won’t win, but they can definitely ruin the remainder of Oregon ’s dreams with a
Civil War victory. That’s got to be considered a step in the right direction.
17) Texas
Everyone is pointing to the K-State game at the end of the
season, but that seems a little disrespectful to TCU. Despite their offensive
issues the Horned Frogs are no pushover. Looking ahead to the Wildcats could be
costly, and Mack Brown isn’t exactly known for his coaching prowess in these
matters. Tread carefully, Longhorns.
18) Oklahoma
State
What is it about Okie
State Texas from being 8-2, they played KSU close
and they just hammered a ranked Texas Tech team. Yet they languish at the
bottom of the rankings. I, on the other hand, like this team a lot.
19) Nebraska
The hard work should be over. The Cornhuskers can clinch
their spot opposite Wisconsin with a win over Iowa , or they can sweat out the result of the Michigan – Ohio
State
20) Louisville
The Cardinals have had a week to prepare for the Fightin’
Pomeranians of UConn (seriously, look at the logo), so this week should be no
trouble. The big one is next Thursday against Rutgers
to decide who gets to get blasted in a BCS bowl. Not sure how this will play
out.
21) Kent
State
With a clutch win over Bowling
Green , the Golden Flashes secured a berth in the MAC
Championship against NIU. Could this team go 11-1? 12-1? 13-1? I’m definitely
rooting for it. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Kent State
22) Northern Illinois
The Huskies won a tight contest with Toledo to clinch the division, though I
couldn’t help but think that the better team lost the game. The chase for the
MAC title has been thrilling and it’s only fitting that we’ll get two teams
undefeated (I hope) in league play battling it out in Detroit .
23) USC
I’m unsure if this is still a top-25 team. I mean, losing to
UCLA by 10 is nothing to be ashamed of, but the three-game losing streak is
distressing. The Trojans should be better than 7-4. I don’t think they can beat
Notre Dame without Matt Barkley, though. Lane Kiffin is allegedly safe, but
should he be?
24) Rutgers
A win’s a win, but… ugh. 10-3? The Scarlet Knights play some
good defense and actually are better offensively than people realize, but they
didn’t show it last week. No matter what happens against Pitt, a win over Louisville next Thursday
will get this team to its first BCS bowl.
25) Utah
State
Although I was a fan of Louisiana Tech, I was gratified to
see my preseason pick for WAC champion come through to down the Bulldogs. The
Aggies have quietly put together a really nice year; their losses at Wisconsin and BYU came
by a total of five points. This was very nearly a BCS-busting team.
Pac-12 Report
It’s unclear whether the Pac-12’s prospects for getting two
teams into BCS bowls were improved or hurt by Oregon ’s loss. The Ducks could win out and
play in the Rose or Fiesta Bowls (or even the BCS Championship), or they could
lose again and plummet as far as the Holiday Bowl. From there, the bowl order
gets staggered. Stanford would play in the Rose Bowl with two more victories.
UCLA can win its way to the Rose Bowl. Even Oregon State
One thing that has been settled is the number of teams
eligible for postseason play. Arizona ’s win
over Utah
eliminated the Utes, leaving the Pac-12 with eight bowl squads. Oregon , OSU, Stanford and Washington
will represent the North, while USC, UCLA, Arizona and ASU will represent the South.
That’s a great position for this league to be in after having USC ineligible
the past two seasons. The conference has also looked markedly stronger in 2012.
The rivalry games commence this week, except for the Big
Game, which was inexplicably moved to October. I heard this had something to do
with conference expansion but I don’t buy it; Stanford is just playing UCLA
instead and Cal ’s
season is over. But whatever.
The game with the most on the line is undoubtedly the Civil
War. Oregon
can finish 11-1 and still potentially win the conference, though that also
depends on the second-most important game, Stanford – UCLA. As they were last
week (and should be), Oregon
is favored. The Ducks are a better team than the resurgent, but still young
Beavers. However, the same was true against Stanford. OSU can absolutely beat Oregon .
I’m leaning toward Stanford because UCLA has less to play
for and would probably rather face the Cardinal in the Pac-12 Championship anyway, even if only in their
subconscious. While still a limited team, the Cardinal are clearly better with
Josh Hogan. The Bruins are better offensively, but Stanford’s D is superior.
USC gets newly top-ranked Notre Dame at home, but all my
hopes of a Trojans upset in this game went out the window when Matt Barkley
went down. Say what you will about Barkley (he was certainly overrated), but I’d
still much rather have him against the Irish defense than a guy who’s never
started a game.
The other three league games are all on Friday, so there’s
some great post-Thanksgiving day fun to be had. First is the recently-revived
Rumble in the Rockies between newcomers and bottom-feeders Colorado
and Utah . The
Utes should win because CU is awful. I don’t mean to be rude, but you guys need
to stop sucking so much.
Shortly after the first matchup kicks off, so will the 105th
Apple Cup, which I generally consider to be among the nicest rivalries in the
country (“nicest” meaning least volatile). Washington
has historically dominated the series and should dominate this game, even if it
is in Pullman
and the conditions there can be terrifying. Wazzu has not been very good this
year.
Following the end of the Apple Cup we get one of the
nastiest rivalries in college football with Arizona
and Arizona State Arizona
at home, but with identical league records and thus bowl positioning on the
line anything could happen.
Heisman Watch
Marqise Lee, WR, USC
With Collin Klein’s rapid fall from grace Lee should take
the top spot. There’s no more dominant player in the country, no more NFL-ready
talent, no more impressive guy on a game-to-game basis. Lee doesn’t just show
up and dominate, though he could. He shows up and works hard.
Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State
Just because his team is ineligible Miller shouldn’t be
excluded from New York .
He’s a fantastic athlete at the QB position and a true dual threat in a way
Terrell Pryor never was. It would be downright criminal for him to not be a
finalist if Ohio State
Collin Klein, QB, Kansas
State
There is still no more important player to his team than
Optimus, but the loss to Baylor – and the WAY K-State lost – will probably end
his hopes. There’s still an outside shot at both the Heisman and the title
game, though, so don’t count him out yet.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Before I get to my more interesting feature, I’d like to
acknowledge that Maryland and Rutgers have joined the Big Ten. I’ve already read a
half-dozen articles ripping the move for all parties as a cynical cash grab and
ante-upper in the arms race that is college football. I share those sentiments,
so there’s really no reason to repeat them. What’s become clear is that the
dominoes have started to fall and the superconference era is on its way, sooner
rather than later. There’s blame to go around on everyone, from conference
commissioners to athletics directors to trustees to the corrupt NCAA. This news
marks a sad day for the sport.
In lighter news, I present a question: How many teams do you
think are still alive for a BCS title game berth? You might be surprised by the
answer, as it’s extremely rare for so many teams to still have a chance at this
point in the season. I’m here to present the ultimate apocalypse scenario. Read
on, right down the BCS rankings.
Notre Dame will play in the BCS Championship, unless the
Irish lose to USC…
That leaves Alabama , but
the Tide lose to Georgia
in the SEC Championship…
That leaves Florida , who
loses to Florida State
Next up is Oregon , but the
Ducks fall to Oregon
State
LSU falls to Arkansas
in their rivalry game…
Stanford loses on the road at UCLA…
Leaving the winner of South
Carolina – Clemson as the nation’s top team.
Depending on how far Notre Dame falls, any of the top dozen
teams could take their place and play the Gamecocks/Tigers in Miami . This scenario is far-fetched, but it
is possible, which is what is so unusual. Generally at this point in the season
at least one school will lock up a BCS Championship berth if a team ahead of
them loses, but 2012 has the distinction of being a year where that’s not true.
So while the national title looks as if it will come down to Notre Dame versus
the SEC champ, don’t be fooled. There’s football left to be played and crazier
things have happened.
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