Onward - to Victory!

Take a deep breath. We’re almost there. The BCS Championship will feature Notre Dame (gulp) and the SEC champion (double gulp). That much is clear. From there, it’s easy to make predictions but difficult to truly know how everything will play out. The entire system of bowl invitations hinges on which 10 teams play in the BCS, so very little is concrete at this point.

What’s most likely is that after the BCS Championship slots are filled Oregon and Florida will be the first two at-large picks. Georgia (or Alabama) will fall behind those teams in the standings following the SEC Championship, giving both the Ducks and Gators automatic at-large invitations by virtue of top-four status.

Is this fair? If Georgia loses, the Bulldogs will have defeated Florida in the regular season but be eliminated for a better bowl because they beat Florida and played an extra game. Just another illogical result of the divisional split superconferences must create. Michigan State was a victim of the same phenomenon last season when the Spartans defeated Michigan but were sent to the Outback Bowl after losing the Big Ten Championship to Wisconsin. Michigan, who played no one, got a Sugar Bowl berth. In this case I actually think Florida is better than Georgia (as opposed to 2011 when MSU was clearly the better team), but that doesn’t make the selection process any less stupid.

In any case, this fills four of the ten BCS slots. Additional spots are reserved for the champions of the Pac-12 (Stanford/UCLA), Big Ten (Nebraska/Wisconsin), Big 12 (probably Kansas State, but Oklahoma can still weasel its way in) ACC (Florida/Georgia Tech… eesh) and of course, the Big East (Rutgers/Louisville).

Three of those teams will win their way in through conference title games in the Pac-12, Big Ten and ACC. The Big 12 champion will be K-State if the Wildcats beat Texas, or Oklahoma if KSU loses and the Sooners beat TCU. The Big East also does not have a title game, but unless an extremely unlikely series of events occurs Thursday’s game between Rutgers and Louisville will decide that champion as well.

That adds up to another five BCS teams, with a single position remaining. In some years the loser of a conference title game would still have a chance to get an at-large bid, but none of the losing teams this season will have the ranking to do so. This has opened the door for a surprise twist: both participants in the MAC Championship, Kent State and Northern Illinois, are ranked above Rutgers and Louisville. As the Big East is still considered a major conference, the BCS-busting rule applies to the Golden Flashes and Huskies.

Said rule states that the highest-ranked mid-major team who wins its conference and is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings – ahead of any major conference champion – will earn an at-large BCS bid. Simply put, it means Kent State, currently ranked 17^th, is in great shape and NIU, at 21^st, is in decent shape. Because both Rutgers and Louisville were upset last week, neither school is in the top 25. The MAC champion will move up one or two spots with a win this week, so Kent is probably in with a win. NIU would need a little boost, but it’s possible. The MAC has never had a BCS team, so it would be exciting either way.

If that scenario doesn’t come to pass, the biggest beneficiaries would be Oklahoma (provided the Sooners don’t win the Big 12) and Clemson, because the SEC can’t get a third team in and Florida State should win the ACC. But I personally hope we get a MAC squad into the BCS. If the WAC can do it, why can’t the MAC? That’s not a joke; the WAC is substantially weaker.

As it’s Conference Championship Week the slate is more than a little bare. However, I feel (and this will be the only time I’ll ever say this) that this is a good thing. There are more quality matchups this week than many of the full-schedule weeks this season. The emotion of what’s at stake will also provide more drama. Fewer games also means more time to take in one or two matchups instead of flipping across four channels at once. Unless I’m the only person who does that.

On to the games!

The SEC Championship features number two Alabama and third-ranked Georgia, both at 11-1 and seeking a shot at the national championship. Despite what you may be lied to about this week, Georgia’s defense is in no way comparable to Alabama’s. The Bulldogs gave up twice as many points per game as the Crimson Tide and did so against a paper-thin schedule that included wins over just two teams with winning records, one of which was fellow scam artist Vanderbilt. Alabama is better defensively, more balanced offensively and beat four teams with winning records despite playing in the tougher SEC West. Georgia’s no pushover, but Alabama should win the game.

The Pac-12 title game hosts the second- and third-best teams in the conference… but that can’t be helped. Stanford already beat UCLA soundly last week. It’s possible the Bruins were taking it easy to avoid Oregon, but that just seems unlikely. While UCLA’s offense is more explosive, they don’t really play a lot of defense, which is exactly the kind of team Stanford excels against. Look for the Cardinal to do the same thing it did last week: shorten the game with long possessions, move the ball efficiently and deny UCLA scoring chances.

The MAC title game features two teams on a combined 21-0 tear following early-season losses. Northern Illinois’ loss (18-17 at Iowa) is better than Kent State’s (47-14 at Kentucky), but the Golden Flashes have a stronger win (at Rutgers) than the Huskies' best (Toledo?). Kent State uses an older-style ground ‘n pound offense, with two backs over 1,000 yards, and rarely throws. NIU runs the entire Pistol offense through quarterback Jordan Lynch, and it’s safe to say Lynch IS the offense. He has more than 1,000 yards rushing more than the nearest back on the roster and has thrown for nearly 3,000. If the Huskies get up early, I doubt the Flashes can throw their way back into the game. However, if Lynch gets hurt, Kent’s powerful rushing attack could take over quickly.

The ACC Championship is a contrast in offensive philosophies, on-field success and pretty much everything else. Florida State defeated the second-best team in the conference (Clemson) to win its division and, Florida loss notwithstanding, can beat anyone in the country on any given day. Georgia Tech finished third in the Coastal behind North Carolina and Miami (FL) but was the top team eligible for the postseason. Coming in at 6-6, the Yellow Jackets should provide no test at all for the Seminoles.

The Big Ten Championship, the last of the true conference title games, also must deal with the reality of schools banned from the postseason. In this case it’s Wisconsin, who like Georgia Tech finished third in its division (behind Ohio State and Penn State), taking on Legends winner Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have the superior record (10-2 to 7-5) and won the head-to-head matchup earlier this year. But look closer at the Badgers and you’ll be surprised. After being written off following their three-point loss to Oregon State, Wisconsin lost three nail-biters in overtime. In the 30-27 loss to Nebraska, the Badgers held leads of 14-0, 20-3 and 27-10 before blowing the game. Don’t be surprised if this is another close one.

The quasi-Big East title game in Piscataway will be the league’s one last chance to prove to the country that it deserves major-conference status. It’s unlikely to convince anyone. Rutgers comes into this game at a disappointing 9-2, having been upset by Kent State a month ago and then again by Pitt last week. The Scarlet Knight’s psychological state pales in comparison to Louisville’s, though. After a 9-0 start and top-10 ranking, the Cardinals have dropped two straight. The painful fall from grace has been accentuated by the nagging feeling that a better program might hire away Charlie Strong. I liked Louisville at the start of the year, but at this point, especially with QB Teddy Bridgewater hurt, I have to go with Rutgers.

Top 25

1) Notre Dame

It wasn’t exactly impressive, but it was a win. Does that sum up Notre Dame’s season, or what? The Fighting Irish navigated a tricky schedule with aplomb. Yes, seemingly every possible break went their way, but this team is good, too. Good enough to beat Georgia? I think so. Alabama? Hmm…

2) Alabama

If the Crimson Tide knock off Georgia this week as they should, they will take back the top spot in my rankings. The SEC has won six straight BCS titles. It’s only logical. Cold, hard truth says ‘Bama wins this week and goes on to make it seven. If such a matchup comes to be, the nation will have to choose between two evils.

3) Oregon

The Ducks were back to their dominating selves Saturday with a fifth straight Civil War win. While 11-1 is nice, it’s painful to miss out on a fourth consecutive league championship as well. A possible Fiesta Bowl matchup with Kansas State looms ahead; perhaps UO can unload its frustrations there.

4) Florida

Another one of those teams you watch and ask, “How do they win?” The Gators can’t throw at all and rely on an endless string of defensive and special teams plays to avoid defeat. Yet they do it all the time. I guess putting the best athletes on the defensive side really is the secret to success.

5) Ohio State

I had to dock the Buckeyes a little after another lackluster victory. People can lie to themselves and say Michigan is a top-25 team all they want; I’ve watched Big Blue many times this year and they haven’t beat anyone of significance. OSU survived by virtue of being the least flawed team in a horrendous year for the Big Ten.

6) LSU

Because of the Tigers’ track record in out of conference games I decided not to punish them for the close win over Arkansas, but it was close. Once again, LSU faced a highly inferior opponent that should have beaten them despite poor play-calling and execution. Once again, the Bayou Bengals escaped.

7) Kansas State

Strange time but a good time for a bye week, I suppose. As long as KSU beats inferior Texas at home, they’ll advance to their first BCS bowl since 2003. Collin Klein can also make one last push for the Heisman he threw away against Baylor. A lot on the line this week in the Little Apple.

8) South Carolina

Damn you, South Carolina. This is what I was afraid of. Clemson had been the better team since September, but as usual the Gamecocks got up for their biggest rival and showed them what’s what. Unfortunately, this talented team won’t be rewarded with a BCS bowl because of the SEC’s terrible scheduling.

9) Texas A&M

Running up the score on Mizzou to get Johnny Manziel Heisman votes? For shame, Aggies. In all honesty, A&M has only one good win this season, but because it was over Alabama it seems to count for much more in everybody’s minds. I like the Aggies, but they would probably lose to most of the teams in the top 15.

10) Stanford

Stanford gets a temporary bump for beating a solid UCLA team, though I may have to drop them down if certain teams win elsewhere in the top 25. I expect the Cardinal to beat the Bruins again for the Pac-12 title, though their credentials as the top team in the conference are suspect at best.

11) Georgia

Time for Georgia to put up. As I said before, the Bulldogs have exactly one good win on their resume: a shaky eight-pointer over a Florida team that turned the ball over six times. Play that game ten times and I doubt UGA wins more than three. Nevertheless, this squad can advance to the BCS Championship with a win this week.

12) Oklahoma

On the one hand, Oklahoma State is a quality win. On the other, Oklahoma State should have won the game. So give credit to the Sooners for pulling it out, but remember that this is the second-best team in the Big 12. Regardless of whether K-State chokes the title away this week, OU has underachieved.

13) Florida State

Speaking of underachieving… where do I begin? FSU had the lead and the momentum. They could have finally knocked Florida out of the title chase. Then the Seminoles apparently remembered, “Hey, we’re Florida State! Who do we think we are, trying to win a game we should?” This is getting to be a tiresome refrain.

14) Clemson

In case you thought the ‘Noles were the only ACC team with the ability to repeatedly embarrass the conference, Clemson stepped in to put your mind at ease. The Tigers, much like FSU, were facing an opponent they could have put away but instead let hang around and win the second half. It’s not hard to see coming. This is what SEC teams do.

15) Nebraska

The Cornhuskers certainly didn’t do much to impress in their 13-7 victory over impotent Iowa, but they locked up the division just the same and will face Wisconsin in a rematch for the conference title. I’ve got a feeling the Badgers might win this game, which would be a real black eye for the Big Ten.

16) Kent State

Once upon a time, Friday’s showdown with Ohio was supposed to decide which red-hot squad would represent the East in the MAC Championship. The Bobcats fell apart down the stretch, but the Golden Flashes certainly held up their end of the bargain. At 11-1, KSU rolls into Detroit with a BCS berth on the line against reigning heavyweight NIU. No pressure, guys.

17) Northern Illinois

I can’t explain my fascination with the MAC, other than to say it’s overtaken the Big East as the most exciting conference race annually in college football. The Huskies exemplify what makes this league great: explosive offense, opportunistic D and dramatic victories. It would be a shame if Northern Illinois won this game but got shut out of the BCS.

18) UCLA

UCLA could have lost much worse to Stanford in game one, but strangely the Bruins were also just a few plays from being back in it in the fourth quarter. The team had nothing on the line last week, so let’s hope that the double-digit loss was a result of looking ahead to the game that matters and not an omen.

19) Oklahoma State

It was hard to punish the Cowboys too much for losing by three to a (probable) ten-win OU squad. I still like Oklahoma State in most of the potential bowl matchups, even if the past few seasons have shown the Big 12 plays zero defense aside from Kansas State. In the end this is a still a quality team.

20) Oregon State

The Beavers played by far their worst game of the season against Oregon, though they were outmatched anyway. The slim hopes for a BCS bowl are gone, but the fact remains that OSU is in position to grab its best postseason destination in the Mike Riley era (Holiday or Alamo). Not bad after 3-9 last year.

21) Utah State

The Aggies finished off the Grand Ole WAC in style at 6-0. Now comes the unfortunate reality: the bowl situation for this league is barren. USU will be headed to the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl for the second straight year, hoping this time to get a win out of the trip to Boise.

22) Texas

TCU isn’t bad, but Texas was allegedly one of the best “sneaky-good” teams in the country. Had any of the prognosticators actually seen this team play? The talent is there for the most part, but the Longhorns remain one of the worst-coached teams in all of football. They were fortunate to even have a shot at the end of this game.

23) Penn State

I never thought I’d say this after the first two weeks of the season, but Penn State ain’t bad. They’re not great either, but the Nittany Lions are better than nearly every team in the Big Ten and could have easily won ten games in 2012 if not for some shaky kicking and some bad luck.

24) San Jose State

I’ve hesitated on pulling the trigger with this team… the Spartans looked good, but it was possible that was a product of the schedule. However, it’s time to give this team some credit. The only losses are to Utah State and Stanford (by three!), and SJSU defeated three of the better mid-majors in San Diego State, BYU and Louisiana Tech.

25) Northwestern

The Wildcats’ 9-3 mark will sting, because all three of the Big Ten losses should have been wins. With a little more fourth-quarter fortitude, Northwestern would have been favored against Wisconsin this week in the conference championship. Still, nine wins is nothing to be ashamed of for the academic powerhouse of the league.

Pac-12 Report

The conference didn’t produce a whole lot of shockers last week. USC lost to Notre Dame. That was expected. Oregon State lost to Oregon. That was expected (though perhaps not the score). UCLA lost to Stanford. That was expected. The rest of the league produced a couple of upsets, but the fact that they happened wasn’t nearly as surprising as how they happened.

Let’s get the big one out of the way first: Wazzu beating Washington. The Cougars were the biggest underdog to win and they did so after trailing by 18 in the second half. I honestly have no idea how the Huskies blew this one (I mean that literally; I turned the TV off at that point and only later found out WSU won). This was huge for both teams’ attitudes, but mattered little in terms of the bowl picture.

The more significant upset was Arizona State over Arizona. This was one of the craziest games I’ve seen in a while, with massive momentum swings and scoring runs. At various points in the contest it seemed both the Sun Devils and Wildcats would pull away, but neither could do so until the final minutes. Highly entertaining. And of course, the win vaulted ASU over ‘Zona in the conference standings.

The final matchup was Utah and Colorado, which had an interesting ending and even more interesting aftermath. First off, Utah needed a kickoff return for a touchdown to beat the Buffaloes. That’s a bad sign for the Utes. Then, the next day, word came down that CU had fired Jon Embree. I don’t know if it would have made a difference had the Buffs won, but in any case this seems like a rash and reactionary move.

Colorado is one of the worst teams in the nation, BCS or otherwise. Embree had only two seasons and one recruiting class to try to pull his alma mater out of that hole. Yes, the team was really bad. But could any coach have done better? I don’t necessarily buy that the firing smacks of racism – unlike Tyrone Willingham’s at Notre Dame, which definitely did – but I’m confused as to what the school expects. This is a long-term rebuilding project.

Since I already made out my analysis for the Pac-12 Championship, let’s go over the bowl situation. Oregon will likely get a BCS at-large bid to the Fiesta Bowl; Stanford or UCLA will go to the Rose, Washington will probably go to the Vegas, USC to the Sun, and Arizona and ASU are headed to the New Mexico and Kraft Fight Hunger bowls, respectively.

The one variable still to be decided is who goes to the Rose Bowl. If Stanford wins, Oregon State should beat out UCLA for the Alamo bid, dropping the Bruins to the Holiday. If UCLA wins, Stanford will get the Alamo berth and OSU will fall to the Holiday. The rest of the order should stay the same, so Oregon State fans should be rooting for Stanford on Friday.

Heisman Watch

Marqise Lee, WR, USC

A subpar game against Notre Dame, but he was playing with a first-time starter. How much could you expect? Heisman voters dislike guys on teams that don’t have at least eight or nine wins, but there’s only so much one man can do. Lee is the best player in the country and it really isn’t close.

Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

Dude’s good. Really good. Are voters really going to punish him for going 12-0 when the program, not Miller, is on probation? I get not voting for OSU in the AP; it’s fair. Shutting out Miller isn’t. He won’t win the thing anyway, so get this kid to New York.

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

With a big game against Texas, Klein could majorly redeem himself and provide ammunition for those voters who still think being an upperclassman makes you more worthy for the award. Oh yeah, he could also send K-State to just its second BCS bowl ever. Don’t let me down, Optimus.

Matt Barkley, QB, USC

A shameless joke at his expense. I hope it will not be the last.

Some people may wonder why I’ve omitted Johhny Manziel and Manti Te’o from the list. Both are fine football players, it’s true. Here’s why neither is deserving of the Heisman:

Te’o is merely the latest in a long line of “best player on the best team” candidates who have no business being in the Heisman conversation. He’s a great linebacker, but he’s not even the best player at his position – that would be Georgia’s Jarvis Jones – and Notre Dame’s profile has inflated his worth. The average fan can’t comprehend how the Irish can be number one without a Heisman candidate, so Te’o, as the best player on an already outstanding defense, has become that guy by default.

As for Manziel, he has put up ridiculous numbers. But there’s a lot of hidden truths in those statistics. For as great as Johnny Football played against Alabama, he was just as ineffective in Texas A&M’s losses to LSU and Florida. He’s also significantly padded his numbers against bad teams, which was never more evident than in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s blowout over Missouri. I have a real problem with that. And here’s the kicker: it’s questionable whether Manziel is even better than Oregon’s Marcus Mariota. No one is calling for Mariota to win the Heisman.

Random Thoughts and Observations

In another stupid conference championship game development, Stanford must defeat UCLA twice in seven days to win the Pac-12. Had UCLA played all freshman last week, it wouldn’t have mattered as long as the Bruins win this Friday. What’s worse, such a strategy would have actually gotten them an easier matchup (Stanford versus Oregon). And we’re still perpetuating the myth that the college football’s regular season is sacred?

Since realignment season has begun again there have been more developments. Louisville is now joining the ACC to replace Maryland; Tulane and East Carolina will move from the Conference USA to the Big East; BYU is reportedly mulling a return to the Mountain West after just two years as an independent, and Boise State and San Diego State are supposedly trying to back out of their upcoming allegiance to the Big East. Did you know the ACC and Big Ten will soon have 14 members, while Conference USA will lose six members in the next two years but replace them with six more bottom-feeders? Banging… head… on… desk.

Some people have questioned why I support certain schools. The answer is that my allegiances have evolved through a convoluted web that includes, but is not limited to: appreciation of playing styles, love for one transcendent player, supporting mid-majors or traditional underdogs, playing with a team in NCAA Football, or some combination of all of these things. In the interest of full disclosure, here is a list of all the teams I root for:

Maryland (The Terps!)

The Ramblin’ Wreck of Georgia Tech!

Texas Tech (Red Raidaaaas!)

Wisconsin (Badgers!)

All the service academies, but particularly Army

Kent State (The Golden Flashes! What does that mean?)

Northern Illinois (This MAC Championship is going to be tough to watch)

Fresno State (The most feared mid-major ever)

Oregon (Obviously)

Washington State (Because they just can’t stop Cougin’ it)

Missouri (Two words: Brad Smith)

Arkansas (Razorbacks, the fiercest swine in the land!)

These are all the teams I support and you should, too. I don’t think I’ve forgotten anyone, but I’ll look over the list again next week. Until then, Guns Up.

Conference cannibalization

The national euphoria over the upcoming exclusion of the SEC from the BCS Championship lasted all of about seven days. It appears players in Eugene and Manhattan started celebrating their spots in the title game a bit early, much to the delight of the folks in South Bend and Tuscaloosa. Now all that separates us from another all-SEC showdown is USC and Florida State. Oy vey.

The sad thing is, the biggest winner of the weekend wasn’t Notre Dame or Alabama or Georgia or Florida. Ultimately, it was the BCS, which got lucky yet again when two more undefeateds went down. How does this happen, year after year? By natural probability, this season (along with a few others) should have ended with four unbeaten teams (one ineligible), none of which hailed from the SEC. With the BCS on the way out, it would have been a fitting stamp on the death of a stupid, archaic system. Instead fans got this. Again.

The odds-on favorite to clinch the top spot at the end of the regular season is now Notre Dame, who gets to face rival USC without Matt Barkley. Hey, another break for the Fighting Irish! Who would have thought? Most people have long thought the Trojans would win this game; now things are quite different.

The SEC champion – Alabama or Georgia, barring a miracle – will most assuredly play for the BCS title, so the big matchup appears almost set. But wait! There’s still more insanity in play here. If Notre Dame loses to USC (unlikely, but go with it), a number of very strange scenarios could play out.

Florida, currently ranked fourth, could pull a 2011 Alabama and backdoor its way into the championship by beating rival FSU. Oregon, at fifth, could do the same by knocking off rival Oregon State. It’s even possible, if Georgia beats Alabama but loses to Georgia Tech, that the Gators and Ducks could play each other. And here’s the rub: if Stanford beats UCLA, this could happen despite both UF and UO not even winning their respective divisions or playing for their league championships. I believe that’s what they refer to on the internet as a “facepalm.”

In fact, looking at the BCS rankings, it’s possible that any of the top 10 teams could finagle its way into the title game through a string of upsets. Florida State could beat Florida but lose in the ACC Championship. Oregon could beat OSU only to lose to UCLA. Just when you think this mess has finally worked itself out, it could turn again at a moment’s notice.

You may have noticed that many of these scenarios hinge on upsets in conference championship games, AKA the bane of college football. I’ve long been a detractor of superconferences and divisions that enable lucrative but pointless league title games, and this season has proved once and for all what a farce they are. The Big 12 and ACC have both previously felt the sting such contests can administer; this year it’s the Pac-12’s turn.

The Big 12 Championship has already seen a prospective BCS title team knocked out at the finish line twice: in 1998, undefeated Kansas State was set to play in the national championship before losing to Texas A&M, while in 2007 top-ranked Missouri was blown out by Oklahoma. 2008 saw the nightmare of three 11-1 teams in the same division (Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech) who had all beaten each other. That’s not to mention the annual problem of having the two best programs in the league in Oklahoma and Texas play in the same division, which meant they could never meet in the title game.

The ACC, having basically dropped out of the BCS title hunt early each year for several seasons, hasn’t had it quite as bad, but can still bemoan its own championship game flubs: 2005 saw a 10-2 Virginia Tech squad lose to an 8-4 Florida State team it had beaten in the regular season, and last year third-ranked Virginia Tech was blown out by Clemson with a chance to play LSU on the line.

Oregon’s loss to Stanford last week might mean the best team in the Pac-12 won’t play in its championship, another danger of these games. The point I hope I’ve gotten across is that these games are simply money grabs, nothing more, and they’re destroying the game of college football. Adding members to get to 12 teams in order to split into divisions and hold a title game has been the driving force behind conference expansion, which just saw a new round start with Maryland and Rutgers’ defections to the increasingly poorly-named Big Ten. More on this later.

It is rivalry week, and watchable games abound. There’s LSU – Arkansas, Georgia Tech – Georgia, Michigan and Ohio State, Virginia and Virginia Tech, Auburn – Alabama, Florida – FSU, Oregon – Oregon State, Arizona – ASU, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma, South Carolina – Clemson, and Notre Dame – USC. Good games all.

Top 25

1) Notre Dame

I don’t think Notre Dame is the best team in the country. The Irish are the best undefeated team, though. The schedule hasn’t turned out to be as difficult as everyone thought, but it’s more or less a BCS-conference slate. If they go 12-0, this team will have earned a spot in the BCS title game.

2) Alabama

After watching Ohio State go to overtime against Wisconsin I’m prepared for the Crimson Tide to retake a top-two spot. All that misery in Tuscaloosa didn’t have to hold out too long; it took less than seven days for ‘Bama to control its own destiny again. It’s good to be king.

3) Ohio State

Even if this team was eligible, would it really beat out the SEC champ? I doubt it. People have seen the Big Ten this season. It’s not good. Struggling with Wisconsin Saturday wasn’t a good sign. I’m still betting the Buckeyes beat Michigan and go undefeated, it’s just that it’s hard to get excited about it.

4) Florida State

FSU has the opportunity to prevent a second all-SEC title game if the Seminoles can knock off Florida at home. I’ve predicted this team would win this game before; what we’ve seen out of Florida the past couple of weeks hasn’t been promising. Now it’s up to the always mentally-fragile ‘Noles to make it happen.

5) Oregon

There’s a lot more to be said about the Stanford loss, but the cold truth is that Oregon probably just blew the best chance it will ever get to win a national championship. We’ll see if the disappointment lingers into this week, or if the Ducks can rebound and beat Oregon State.

6) Florida

Florida lost earlier than Oregon and should probably should ranked higher… but have you watched this team play? 23 points against Jacksonville State? Needing a blocked punt to survive Louisiana-Lafayette? By all rights the Gators should be crushed by FSU this week.

7) LSU

LSU has also been very unimpressive of late (though really, this whole season). There was no way the Tigers should have beat Ole Miss last week, though this is sort of a recurring theme with this program. The end result is that LSU is actually still alive for the BCS title game despite two losses.

8) Kansas State

Without any malice whatsoever, I dropped KSU as far as I could. Losing on the road with the pressure of being number one is one thing. Getting waxed by 4-5 Baylor is entirely another. The Wildcats should still win the league championship, but this has to hurt.

9) Clemson

Clemson should beat South Carolina this week to finish 11-1. The Tigers are healthier and have played much better this season. Yet I’ve seen before what a Gamecock team motivated to embarrass Clemson can do, which is why I have a bad feeling about this contest. A win would likely equal a BCS bowl.

10) Texas A&M

Speaking of BCS bowls, how about A&M? With a win over hapless Mizzou the Aggies would finish 10-2 with a win over Alabama and losses only to top-10 teams. It’s quite possible the SEC rookies could wind up in the Sugar Bowl if things fall their way. Very impressive.

11) Georgia

The Bulldogs beat back fearsome Georgia Southern and now face another state school in Georgia Tech. The Ramblin’ Wreck have played UGA close in recent years, though I doubt that will be the case here. Georgia knows two more wins will put them in Miami.

12) Stanford

If the Cardinal were to beat Oregon, I, like many others, assumed it would be in a shootout. Actually stopping the Ducks was something Stanford hadn’t done in long time. Yet now the team stands on the verge of a division championship. For such a flawed team, it’s amazing what Stanford has been able to accomplish this year.

13) UCLA

The Bruins face an interesting conundrum Saturday: go all out to beat Stanford and possibly play Oregon for the Pac-12 title, or play possum against the Cardinal in an effort to surprise them the second time around. I doubt this team will want to give away a game, but I’m not sure if they’ll win anyway.

14) Oklahoma

Someday there will be songs about the Sooners’ wild 50-49 win at West Virginia that kept OU’s Big 12 title hopes alive. I’m not sure what this program is doing with all its talent, but it would seem that it’s not being maximized on the defensive side of the ball. In any case, Oklahoma is still in the hunt.

15) South Carolina

South Carolina is better than 15^th, but mounting injuries have soured this team’s fortunes. Given the history of the Clemson matchup I would have picked the Gamecocks, but there are simply too many question marks. Where is the production going to come from the running backs? The quarterback? What kind of defense will show up?

16) Oregon State

The Beavs got Jeff Tedford fired (well, not really) and moved into position to force a three-way tie atop the North standings. Even in that scenario OSU won’t win, but they can definitely ruin the remainder of Oregon’s dreams with a Civil War victory. That’s got to be considered a step in the right direction.

17) Texas

Everyone is pointing to the K-State game at the end of the season, but that seems a little disrespectful to TCU. Despite their offensive issues the Horned Frogs are no pushover. Looking ahead to the Wildcats could be costly, and Mack Brown isn’t exactly known for his coaching prowess in these matters. Tread carefully, Longhorns.

18) Oklahoma State

What is it about Okie State that voters despise so much? The Cowboys are a bad call against Texas from being 8-2, they played KSU close and they just hammered a ranked Texas Tech team. Yet they languish at the bottom of the rankings. I, on the other hand, like this team a lot.

19) Nebraska

The hard work should be over. The Cornhuskers can clinch their spot opposite Wisconsin with a win over Iowa, or they can sweat out the result of the Michigan – Ohio State game. In either case they should be in (and the favorites to win the conference crown), but crazier things have happened.

20) Louisville

The Cardinals have had a week to prepare for the Fightin’ Pomeranians of UConn (seriously, look at the logo), so this week should be no trouble. The big one is next Thursday against Rutgers to decide who gets to get blasted in a BCS bowl. Not sure how this will play out.

21) Kent State

With a clutch win over Bowling Green, the Golden Flashes secured a berth in the MAC Championship against NIU. Could this team go 11-1? 12-1? 13-1? I’m definitely rooting for it. As I mentioned in an earlier post, Kent State’s all-time bowl record is 0-1. Let’s get that record up to .500!

22) Northern Illinois

The Huskies won a tight contest with Toledo to clinch the division, though I couldn’t help but think that the better team lost the game. The chase for the MAC title has been thrilling and it’s only fitting that we’ll get two teams undefeated (I hope) in league play battling it out in Detroit.

23) USC

I’m unsure if this is still a top-25 team. I mean, losing to UCLA by 10 is nothing to be ashamed of, but the three-game losing streak is distressing. The Trojans should be better than 7-4. I don’t think they can beat Notre Dame without Matt Barkley, though. Lane Kiffin is allegedly safe, but should he be?

24) Rutgers

A win’s a win, but… ugh. 10-3? The Scarlet Knights play some good defense and actually are better offensively than people realize, but they didn’t show it last week. No matter what happens against Pitt, a win over Louisville next Thursday will get this team to its first BCS bowl.

25) Utah State

Although I was a fan of Louisiana Tech, I was gratified to see my preseason pick for WAC champion come through to down the Bulldogs. The Aggies have quietly put together a really nice year; their losses at Wisconsin and BYU came by a total of five points. This was very nearly a BCS-busting team.

Pac-12 Report

It’s unclear whether the Pac-12’s prospects for getting two teams into BCS bowls were improved or hurt by Oregon’s loss. The Ducks could win out and play in the Rose or Fiesta Bowls (or even the BCS Championship), or they could lose again and plummet as far as the Holiday Bowl. From there, the bowl order gets staggered. Stanford would play in the Rose Bowl with two more victories. UCLA can win its way to the Rose Bowl. Even Oregon State has an outside shot at BCS glory. It’s all very confusing and some of it depends on results from around the country.

One thing that has been settled is the number of teams eligible for postseason play. Arizona’s win over Utah eliminated the Utes, leaving the Pac-12 with eight bowl squads. Oregon, OSU, Stanford and Washington will represent the North, while USC, UCLA, Arizona and ASU will represent the South. That’s a great position for this league to be in after having USC ineligible the past two seasons. The conference has also looked markedly stronger in 2012.

The rivalry games commence this week, except for the Big Game, which was inexplicably moved to October. I heard this had something to do with conference expansion but I don’t buy it; Stanford is just playing UCLA instead and Cal’s season is over. But whatever.

The game with the most on the line is undoubtedly the Civil War. Oregon can finish 11-1 and still potentially win the conference, though that also depends on the second-most important game, Stanford – UCLA. As they were last week (and should be), Oregon is favored. The Ducks are a better team than the resurgent, but still young Beavers. However, the same was true against Stanford. OSU can absolutely beat Oregon.

I’m leaning toward Stanford because UCLA has less to play for and would probably rather face the Cardinal in the Pac-12 Championship anyway, even if only in their subconscious. While still a limited team, the Cardinal are clearly better with Josh Hogan. The Bruins are better offensively, but Stanford’s D is superior.

USC gets newly top-ranked Notre Dame at home, but all my hopes of a Trojans upset in this game went out the window when Matt Barkley went down. Say what you will about Barkley (he was certainly overrated), but I’d still much rather have him against the Irish defense than a guy who’s never started a game.

The other three league games are all on Friday, so there’s some great post-Thanksgiving day fun to be had. First is the recently-revived Rumble in the Rockies between newcomers and bottom-feeders Colorado and Utah. The Utes should win because CU is awful. I don’t mean to be rude, but you guys need to stop sucking so much.

Shortly after the first matchup kicks off, so will the 105^th Apple Cup, which I generally consider to be among the nicest rivalries in the country (“nicest” meaning least volatile). Washington has historically dominated the series and should dominate this game, even if it is in Pullman and the conditions there can be terrifying. Wazzu has not been very good this year.

Following the end of the Apple Cup we get one of the nastiest rivalries in college football with Arizona and Arizona State. The Duel in the Desert, as it’s recently come to be known, has been extremely contentious the past few seasons. I like Arizona at home, but with identical league records and thus bowl positioning on the line anything could happen.

Heisman Watch

Marqise Lee, WR, USC

With Collin Klein’s rapid fall from grace Lee should take the top spot. There’s no more dominant player in the country, no more NFL-ready talent, no more impressive guy on a game-to-game basis. Lee doesn’t just show up and dominate, though he could. He shows up and works hard.

Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

Just because his team is ineligible Miller shouldn’t be excluded from New York. He’s a fantastic athlete at the QB position and a true dual threat in a way Terrell Pryor never was. It would be downright criminal for him to not be a finalist if Ohio State goes 12-0.

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

There is still no more important player to his team than Optimus, but the loss to Baylor – and the WAY K-State lost – will probably end his hopes. There’s still an outside shot at both the Heisman and the title game, though, so don’t count him out yet.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Before I get to my more interesting feature, I’d like to acknowledge that Maryland and Rutgers have joined the Big Ten. I’ve already read a half-dozen articles ripping the move for all parties as a cynical cash grab and ante-upper in the arms race that is college football. I share those sentiments, so there’s really no reason to repeat them. What’s become clear is that the dominoes have started to fall and the superconference era is on its way, sooner rather than later. There’s blame to go around on everyone, from conference commissioners to athletics directors to trustees to the corrupt NCAA. This news marks a sad day for the sport.

In lighter news, I present a question: How many teams do you think are still alive for a BCS title game berth? You might be surprised by the answer, as it’s extremely rare for so many teams to still have a chance at this point in the season. I’m here to present the ultimate apocalypse scenario. Read on, right down the BCS rankings.

Notre Dame will play in the BCS Championship, unless the Irish lose to USC…

That leaves Alabama, but the Tide lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship…

Georgia would go on to play for the title, but can’t because the Bulldogs lost to Georgia Tech in their regular-season finale…

That leaves Florida, who loses to Florida State this week…

Next up is Oregon, but the Ducks fall to Oregon State in the Civil War…

Kansas State then loses to Texas in two weeks…

LSU falls to Arkansas in their rivalry game…

Stanford loses on the road at UCLA…

Missouri upsets Texas A&M…

Florida State beats Florida, but loses to Georgia Tech in the ACC Championship…

Leaving the winner of South Carolina – Clemson as the nation’s top team.

Depending on how far Notre Dame falls, any of the top dozen teams could take their place and play the Gamecocks/Tigers in Miami. This scenario is far-fetched, but it is possible, which is what is so unusual. Generally at this point in the season at least one school will lock up a BCS Championship berth if a team ahead of them loses, but 2012 has the distinction of being a year where that’s not true. So while the national title looks as if it will come down to Notre Dame versus the SEC champ, don’t be fooled. There’s football left to be played and crazier things have happened.

One down, three to go

He did it! Johnny Football has saved us!

In all seriousness, though… what transpired in Tuscaloosa last Saturday may go down as historically monumental. At least two of the three remaining eligible unbeatens must close out that way, but Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M has opened the door for a scenario most thought improbable at best: a BCS Championship Game without an SEC representative.

It seemed unlikely both because of the recent dominance (six straight titles) and because of the BCS’s bizarre history. Through a combination of well-timed wins, fortuitous losses by other schools and national perception, seven of the previous 12 BCS title game participants hailed from the SEC. Until last week, Alabama seemed the one undefeated team most likely to avoid a slip-up. That changed when the Crimson Tide nearly/should have lost to LSU. Even so, only the most ardent A&M homers would have anticipated what happened this Saturday.

It’s not just that ‘Bama lost, though that was clearly the most resounding effect on the title chase. It’s the manner in which the Tide were beaten: severely outplayed on both sides, outschemed and outlasted by the new kids on the block in the Aggies. To get way, way ahead of things, this was the dream outcome for Oregon, and to a lesser extent Kansas State. Not only did the consensus most talented team (and it isn’t close) in the nation fall out of the picture, it did so to a team who, until last December, resided in the defense-optional Big 12.

The significance of this can’t be overstated. There was always a chance a non-SEC team could win the BCS title by beating another non-SEC team. But in that scenario the SEC could have rightfully scoffed at the champion’s credentials. The league's supporters could argue that the SEC’s best teams played themselves out of the game due to the conference’s overall strength and that no team could truly be called a champion without defeating an SEC opponent.

Texas A&M’s win changed all that. What else are the Aggies but an up-tempo, finesse spread team? Oregon in particular benefits from this, because the Ducks are a lot like the Aggies, only better. If UO or KSU, who also operates largely out of the shotgun (though in a different way), wins the BCS Championship, the SEC no longer has an argument. That’s the long-reaching impact Johnny Football’s big day had on the national landscape – it may have forever ended the SEC’s title streak.

Then again, perhaps the SEC will just start a new streak next year. That’s also assuming some combination of Notre Dame, K-State and Oregon can somehow win out. BCS history doesn’t support it. We may yet see the SEC champion (Alabama or Georgia) celebrating in Miami. There’s so much football still to be played.

Other than the Alabama loss, it was a fairly quiet week. Louisville was also knocked from the ranks of the unbeaten, but the Cardinals were never in the title picture anyway. Stanford defeated Oregon State in a de facto semifinal game for the Pac-12 and the Big Ten saw its own race nearly get ironed out as Wisconsin clinched the Leaders division and Nebraska beat the best team left on its schedule in Penn State.

This week features still more Pac-12 showdowns as Stanford visits Oregon and USC “travels” to UCLA. Both games will decide division titles. Rutgers also meets Cincinnati in a key Big East contest, though the Bearcat’s bandwagon has cooled off pretty fast. I’m more interested in the delightful MAC race, where Toledo and Northern Illinois meet this week to decide the West division and Kent State, Bowling Green and Ohio are all still alive in the East. Why aren’t people watching this? They’re on ESPN almost every night of the week, there’s no excuse!

Top 25

I struggled with a lot of these rankings. We’ve come to the point in the season where the transitive property holds no value and head-to-head results often make things more confusing. I’ll try to explain my choices as best I can.

1) Kansas State

TCU is better than Cal. That’s a simple enough reason why I didn’t jump Oregon over KSU, though the margin will become razor-thin this week if the Ducks beat Stanford. Collin Klein appears to be fine and Baylor should be no trouble this week. I have doubts about Texas’ legitimacy, too. 12-0 is within reach.

2) Oregon

If not for the defense, both in performance and injury concerns, I might have UO at the top of this list. The D-line, though, has been so banged-up that for the first time this year the outcome of the Stanford game is in doubt. Get through that one and we’ll talk about the number one spot.

3) Notre Dame

Boston College was never in the game, but that doesn’t make 21-6 any more impressive. The Irish are clearly the odd team out of this race if all three finish unbeaten. Of course, I’m predicting a loss to USC to end the year anyway, but we’ll see. Wake Forest this week is another pushover.

4) Ohio State

How the OSU higher-ups must be regretting that Gator Bowl appearance last season. To be fair, even an eligible Buckeye team would be left out of the BCS title picture right now because of the perceived weakness of the Big Ten. Still, getting that one extra loss in 2011 has to feel like a pretty terrible consolation prize.

5) Alabama

It’s hard to drop a team that lost only this far. Based on their recent play, the Tide aren’t a top-five squad. I do have faith that ‘Bama will win out and play for – if not win – the SEC championship, though. They’re too talented not to; they just need time to address their issues. Western Carolina and Auburn will help.

6) Florida State

If only the Seminoles hadn’t settled for field goals in Raleigh. Because of the preseason rankings, FSU could conceivably be number one across the polls right now if not for that characteristic faceplant against N.C. State. I have them higher than the BCS because of the defense.

7) Florida

The Gators flat-out should have lost to UL-Lafayette last week. This is more or less what I’ve been waiting for – the proverbial other shoe. Florida played above its ability for several weeks in the middle of the season and is clearly regressing to the level shown in the first few games.

8) LSU

I can’t give the Tigers points for beating a bad Mississippi State team that had already gotten walloped the previous two weeks. That said, LSU looks better than both Alabama and Florida right now. Zach Mettenberger might not be the worst quarterback ever; who’d have thought?

9) Clemson

Unless Tigers can backdoor their way into the ACC title game with a Maryland upset of FSU, they’re stuck hoping for an at-large BCS bid. They could take a giant step toward one by knocking off South Carolina after Thanksgiving, though NCSU is still dangerous this week. I think 11-1 is quite likely.

10) Texas A&M

I hate overreacting to one game, but I had to give the Aggies a little love after shaking the foundations of the nation’s most fearsome conference. Who had A&M winning eight (or nine, or ten) games and beating Alabama before the season? Not me. Johnny Manziel is the real deal.

11) South Carolina

It was a convincing but not overwhelming victory over Arkansas on Saturday. Regardless of what the record or ranking might show, I believe Carolina was broken by the two crushing midseason losses and Marcus Lattimore’s brutal injury. The Gamecocks haven’t played their best ball of late.

12) Georgia

With Georgia Southern and Georgia Tech left on the schedule, the Bulldogs are almost assuredly headed for an 11-1 record. Yet still I say this team, like last year, is a fraud. Since the beginning of 2011 UGA has beaten six teams with winning records and outside of Florida this year none finished with fewer than five losses. Translation: paper Bulldogs.

13) Oklahoma

The Sooners withstood a Baylor rally to climb to 7-2. None of the final three matchups are too intimidating, but West Virginia, Okie State and TCU are all good enough to beat Bad OU. If Good OU shows up, they’ll finish 10-2. Not what this team envisioned, true. They can only blame themselves for the losses.

14) USC

Did we witness a turning point in USC’s season? Down 17-14 in the third against ASU, the Trojans flipped the script on the Sun Devils and dominated the second half en route to a 38-17 win. If SC beats UCLA this week for a ticket to the Pac-12 title game, that stand may be what turns this into a Rose Bowl season.

15) Stanford

Stanford was fortunate to beat Oregon State and should not have the horses to stay with Oregon this week. However, if the Cardinal get off to a good start and aren’t forced to throw, their ground game could really hurt the Ducks. Few teams rely on an early lead as much as this one.

16) UCLA

The Bruins jumped out to a giant lead on the Palouse and then held their breath as Wazzu almost came all the way back. Now comes the moment UCLA fans have been waiting years for: a chance to knock off USC in a truly meaningful game, a chance to play for the Pac-12 title. I’d love to see them get a shot at it.

17) Oregon State

Both of the Beavers’ losses have been full of woulda-shoulda-coulda’s. OSU fans are rightfully lamenting the errors that cost this team a 9-0 start… but it’s also worth remembering that some key breaks have prevented this team from going 5-4. With a 9-3 regular season record likely, the Beavs need to regroup and work on finishing games.

18) Texas

I have suspicions about this team. Still. The recent winning streak is nice but it’s come at the expense of some bad opponents. I don’t think the Longhorns can generate enough offense to beat K-State in the finale. Maybe that’s something to work on in their extremely late-season off week.

19) Nebraska

We can argue about the calls in the Penn State game forever. Nebraska won, deal with it. In doing so the Cornhuskers have essentially punched their ticket to Indianapolis; a sure win against Minnesota this week, coupled with a likely Michigan loss at Ohio State in their finale, will seal it, though the Huskers can also beat Iowa to get in automatically.

20) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys play Texas Tech this week, so the placement of these teams really doesn’t matter. The loser will probably be out of the rankings, though both squads are top 25-worthy. I’m going with the team I’ve liked (but for some reason the polls have not) all season. OSU is a talented group.

21) Texas Tech

The Texas game was what flipped me against the Red Raiders. Okie State wants a shootout just like Tech does. The difference is the Cowboys have actually won some of them this year, whereas this team has been hit-or-miss in that department. I still like Tech… but they just nearly lost to Kansas.

22) Louisville

Aaaaand… splat. There went the Big East’s faint hopes for respectability. Getting shredded by a .500 Syracuse team wasn’t what the Cardinals, or the league, had in mind. The BCS bid is still very much in play, but I have to say I have a little more faith in Rutgers right now.

23) Kent State

Chugging along at 9-1, the Golden Flashes now face the two teams directly below them in the divisional standings. A win over Bowling Green this week will render the finale with Ohio meaningless and Kent has to be thinking 11-1. This program has played in one bowl, the Tangerine in 1971. What a sight it will be to see the Golden Flashes in the postseason again.

24) Northern Illinois

NIU, on the other hand, is a mid-major that has seen several bowls, including one in each of the past four seasons. I didn’t think the Huskies could rebound so well from last year’s personnel losses, yet here the team sits at 6-0 in conference play. A win over Toledo this week will put NIU in the MAC title game for the third straight season.

25) Louisiana Tech

The Bulldogs are definitely not bad. They run the spread better than anyone this side of Oregon and Texas A&M. The repeated close shaves, such as last week’s escape against FBS rookie Texas State, are a bit of a concern. If LTU gets by Utah State this week, though, a one-loss season is in hand.

Pac-12 Report

Almost everything went right for the Pac-12 last week. It really didn’t matter who won the Stanford – Oregon State game, because both teams have yet to face Oregon. It helped that USC and UCLA both won to set up a showdown for the South title and Washington won to grab bowl eligibility. Utah’s loss severely damaged the Utes’ bowl prospects, though. The conference might have to make due with Arizona State as its final postseason squad.

Obviously Oregon State fans were frustrated with another close game slipping through the team’s fingers, especially when the Beavers seemed to have the Cardinal on the ropes at 23-14. One flukey Stepfan Taylor catch-and-run later, though, the Beavs lost the momentum and stumbled to defeat. It was a jarring loss to eliminate OSU from Rose Bowl contention, though 7-2 is still far more than this team had any right to hope for after the way the past two seasons ended.

On Stanford’s end, the win moved the Cardinal in position to steal the North from Oregon with a win this week. It shouldn’t happen; win or lose, UO is the better team and has proved it week after week this year. However, it’s definitely true that this is the most vulnerable Oregon has looked in a while, and the continuing injuries to the defensive front should have Ducks fans very worried. Stanford does one thing – run the ball. For a time Saturday Cal was able to do just that. I don’t expect the Cardinal to hold Oregon to less than 30, but with production from the ground game Stanford may be able to match the Ducks in a shootout. It’s a scary matchup for UO.

In L.A., the lesser of the conference races (who would have thought that 20 years ago?) ends as USC meets UCLA. The Bruins have been the more consistent team this season and have outperformed expectations. Essentially, they’re the anti-USC. I’d like to pick the home squad in this game. But I can’t shake the feeling that USC is angry about the Oregon game and desperate for a rematch, a rematch no intelligent Ducks fans should want. My heart says UCLA. My head says USC.

In other action, Arizona goes to Utah in the Utes’ last gasp for a bowl bid (they need two wins but their final game is Colorado) and Cal visits a wounded but angry Oregon State team. Washington should pick up its seventh win at Colorado, while ASU will try for its sixth against Washington State. Getting another team into the postseason would be great for the conference after USC was ineligible last year.

Everything in the divisional races has led up to this week. While there’s still more drama to be had when the rivalry games are played in two weeks’ time, this weekend will (almost definitely) decide the teams who will play for the Pac-12 Championship. Regardless of who wins, it’s going to be a good one.

Heisman Watch

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

It will take either a superhuman effort by one of his peers or a multi-turnover flop for Klein to fumble this thing away. Which one sounds more likely? He isn’t the best passer and doesn’t have great speed, but there’s no denying that he’s the most valuable player in the country.

Marqise Lee, WR, USC

I’m biting. Lee doesn’t have a real shot because of his team’s record, but all that does is show the absurdity of the Heisman system. He’s the most complete receiver prospect in years, essentially an all-Pro wideout playing against kids. 223 yards per game in a BCS conference is absurd.

Johnny Manziel, QB, Texas A&M

Once again, I hate knee-jerk reactions… but Manzial has been good all year. I didn’t include him last week because I assumed the Alabama game would all but torpedo his candidacy. Boy, was I wrong.

Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

The Big Ten is bad. Let’s just get that out of the way. Now, look at what this kid’s done this year: 27 total touchdowns (to Klein’s 31), 1,000 yards rushing (more than Klein) and 14 passing scores (also more than Klein). Miller’s a less efficient passer, but otherwise he’s right there.

Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

65 yards won’t doom his candidacy because he had 321 the week before, but Barner will need more production down the stretch to justify his case. Cal made it a point of emphasis to remove him; will Stanford do the same?

Random Thoughts and Observations

It’s amazing to think that at one point, Oregon had both Marcus Mariota AND Johnny Manziel committed. What if both had stayed in Eugene? Some elite programs go entire four-year recruiting cycles without finding a single average QB (looking at you, LSU). UO might have had two elite signal-callers in the same class. Some of that is luck, but it’s still crazy to consider. What would the Ducks have done to get them both on the field?

It would be incredibly beneficial to the rankings if the identities were revealed of the AP, Coaches’ and Harris Poll voters who still like Mississippi State so we could go to their homes and burn them down. Let’s review: MSU beat a quartet of horrendous, overmatched midmajors and FCS teams. They beat the three worst teams in the SEC (Kentucky, Tennessee and Auburn), a trio that still cannot account for a SINGLE conference win (combined record: 0-20). On the strength of that garbage pile the Bulldogs rose to eleventh in the country, then only dropped out of the rankings after suffering three blowout defeats at the hands of Alabama, Texas A&M and LSU. WHAT could compel anyone to give this team a single vote?

Louisiana Tech has won the interception derby! The Bulldogs became the final team without an interception thrown when Alabama’s A.J. McCarron tossed his team’s first of the season in the first quarter against Texas A&M. For good measure, he added another pick on fourth-and-goal to seal the game. Say this for McCarron: when he loses games, he loses them badly.

Speaking of QB efficiency, LTU’s Colby Cameron did something extremely impressive this week. With his sixth pass against Texas State, Cameron broke Russell Wilson’s FBS record for most passes attempted without an interception. At the end of the game, Cameron had pushed his own record to 419, an incredible stat to go alongside his line of 27 TD’s and zero INT’s this season.

What's in a win?

Considering they all went undefeated, the top four teams in the BCS couldn’t have provided much more entertainment this past weekend. The strengths and weaknesses of Alabama, Oregon, Kansas State and Notre Dame were all on display Saturday. It was a fascinating look into how each team got to this point as well as how each one could be defeated.

Notre Dame provided the first drama, coming back from a two-touchdown deficit to break Pittsburgh’s heart. The Fighting Irish needed break after break to stay alive and eventually win the game in triple overtime. But what else is new? This team has lived on the edge all season. There’s a reason the Irish are a solid fourth in the polls.

Kansas State jumped out to a nice lead on Oklahoma State, then weathered the storm the rest of the way after Collin Klein’s injury. His status is the most important topic of the week – few believe K-State can stay undefeated without their senior warrior at the helm – though fortunately it appears Klein might be all right.

Oregon had an early 18-point margin on USC, then had to match the Trojans blow-for-blow as both teams abandoned defense entirely. It was a strange, hard-to-believe night at the Coliseum. That type of effort won’t get the Ducks to the BCS title game, even though the offense was basically perfect from snap one.

Alabama then capped off a dramatic afternoon and evening by throwing together one drive when it counted after getting beat up by LSU all game long. For the first time the Crimson Tide looked vulnerable, but they also showed for the first time that they have the kind of mettle championship teams require.

Any other news seemed somewhat superfluous, though there were other interesting and important games. We know at this point roughly which teams will be involved in the national title game but there is still a lot at stake as far as conference championships are concerned. Saturday saw the heat turned up in the Big Ten, Pac-12 and Big East races.

Nebraska’s thrilling win over Michigan State gave the Cornhuskers the margin of error they need to likely wrap up the Legends division. With winnable games against Iowa and Minnesota to end the season and a probable future Michigan loss to Ohio State, Nebraska can now afford to stumble this week against Penn State. If they win, they’ll have all but punched their ticket to Indianapolis.

The Leaders division, however, just got very interesting. With Ohio State and Penn State ineligible, the only two teams left are Wisconsin and Indiana, who both control their own destiny. The Badgers still have to play the Buckeyes and Nittany Lions; the Hoosiers get PSU and Purdue. That means if Indiana beats Wisconsin this weekend, they’ll probably only need to beat woeful Purdue to get into the Big Ten Championship.

Cincinnati stayed alive in the Big East with a win over Syracuse, while Rutgers and Louisville continued their runs through the league by remaining unbeaten. The Cardinals and Scarlet Knights don’t play until the end of the season, so this BCS bid could very well come down to the final week of football. Regardless of its quality, it’s undeniable that the Big East race is entertaining.

The Pac-12 also holds a game with a lot of weight this week. A strong win over Arizona State has put Oregon State in position to claim the title of “Biggest Threat to Oregon” – that is, if the Beavers can beat Stanford on Saturday. Both teams have just one conference loss, so this game sets up as a semifinal for the North division championship before they both meet Oregon in the following two weeks. Good stuff.

The Pac-12 South also took an interesting turn this week when UCLA blew out Arizona. Coupled with USC’s loss to Oregon, this win vaulted the Bruins into the division lead with just three games to play. The Battle for Los Angeles has now taken on a ton of meaning for the first time since 2005. More on the Pac-12 later.

Top 25

1) Alabama

It’s amazing that Alabama was able to escape Death Valley with a win. The Tide were solidly outgained by LSU, held the ball for only 21 minutes and converted one third down. For the first time since August, I looked at ‘Bama with less than complete confidence that they’re the nation’s best team. Yet they won, so they should be number one.

2) Kansas State

Don’t let the score fool you. The only drama in the second half against Okie State was the health of Collin Klein. That issue will hang over the rest of Kansas State’s season. At this point the Wildcats have earned the number two spot. They won’t stay there if Oregon keeps winning, but currently this resume is stronger.

3) Oregon

There are two ways to think about the shootout win in L.A.: the Ducks’ defense was exposed against the best offense it has faced, or the best offense it has faced was the only one capable of scoring that way. The truth is likely in between; what is not in question is the offense’s credentials.

4) Notre Dame

At this point I can only chuckle at the absurdity that is Notre Dame’s season. With the lucky bounces, bad calls and crazy finishes, the Irish are 9-0. Somehow they keep winning, so it seems foolish to pick against them. Saturday’s triple-overtime win against Pitt epitomized 2012 for Notre Dame.

5) Florida State

What looked like a barnburner in the preseason against Virginia Tech has turned into a potential laugher. Thursday night’s contest in Blacksburg was supposed to be a showdown of ranked rivals; instead it’s a battle for respectability for the Hokies. If they hang around in this game at all, FSU is dropping.

6) Ohio State

The nation’s only 10-0 team, yet there’s still almost no buzz regarding “What if Ohio State wasn’t on probation?” That speaks volumes about the perceived weakness of the Big Ten. It’s a shame, not because this is a championship team, but because this probation has effectively muted what should be a Heisman campaign for Braxton Miller.

7) Florida

I really don’t like having Florida up this high, but LSU lost and the Gators didn’t. Of course, beating Mizzou 14-7 is arguably more disappointing than a close loss to Alabama, but that’s not the way the computers will see it. In any case, Florida is very lucky to still have an outside shot at the SEC title.

8) LSU

Oh my. LSU was seconds away from rewriting its destiny, from switching the narrative to redemption from disappointment. It wasn’t meant to be. The Tigers are without question a top ten team, but they’ll continue to be held back by their awful quarterbacking until Les Miles figures out the forward pass is legal.

9) Clemson

Undervalued nationally, even if they haven’t beaten anyone of merit. Clemson will get a chance to prove itself against South Carolina at the end of the year. I expect them to lose, but at this point the Tigers have done more to deserve a ranking. Style points matter when your schedule isn’t impressive.

10) South Carolina

Why are half the teams in the SEC ending conference play in early November? That’s right, they play a pansy 8-game schedule. The Gamecocks should have no trouble with Arkansas this week, even if they have zero motivation now that the East is lost. They follow that up with Wofford and Clemson in the finale.

11) Louisville

The Big East is bad, but Louisville has, to its credit, picked up its play lately. The Cardinals are now rolling towards a season-ending showdown with Rutgers that will decide the league title. I’m confident they’ll get there undefeated; I’m less confident they’ll win that game on the road.

12) Georgia

Another sluggish first half, another victory. All that stands between the Bulldogs and a date with Alabama in Atlanta is an atrocious Auburn team. Should be no big deal. Now, ‘Bama would be favored in the SEC Championship, but UGA could give the Tide a scare if they play a full game. It still hasn’t happened this year.

13) Oregon State

Big test for the Beavers at Stanford. I’m of the mind that Oregon State has been the much better team this season, but I guess we’ll find out. OSU has the defense to handle the Cardinal and the playmakers to attack Stanford; the difference might be in the trenches. This will be a great game of similarly-styled teams.

14) Texas A&M

As expected, the Aggies put away MSU with zero trouble. Now comes the big one – the last test for Alabama in the SEC, in Tuscaloosa to boot. Johnny Manziel has lifted this team this season, but failed to produce against top-line competition. Does he have one massive upset in him?

15) Oklahoma

Idle at a strange time. Each of the Sooners’ last four opponents is inferior on paper. So were Notre Dame and Kansas State. The classic problem for OU has reared its ugly head this season, but a 10-2 Oklahoma squad would be enticing for BCS officials. The Sooners just have to take care of business and get there.

16) USC

I wish I didn’t have USC so high, but I know I’d take the Trojans over everyone else that deserves to be ranked. There’s no shame in giving up yards and points to Oregon. What’s embarrassing is how the defense – certainly not without talent – has been eviscerated in the past two games.

17) UCLA

The Bruins have been a pleasant surprise and the Trojans have been a disappointment. I still can’t put UCLA over their cross-town rivals because I have a feeling USC will win their showdown and take the South. I’m just not quite as sure about it as I was a few weeks ago. UCLA is set up very nicely for the future, though.

18) Texas

After that lucky Kansas win I was sure Texas wasn’t top-25 material. Then the Longhorns took it to Texas Tech this week and changed some perceptions. I’m still skeptical about this team, but they have the potential to get nine or ten wins out of this season if things break right.

19) Stanford

Stanford is definitely not bad. The Cardinal are also definitely not great. That USC game is looking more and more like an outlier. The late-year QB switch is intriguing; I’m sure some Stanford fans would say it was warranted weeks ago. We’ll have to wait and see, because Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA is an unforgiving slate.

20) Nebraska

Nebraska, the Big Ten wishes it could quit you. The Cornhuskers have proved to be vastly better than the rest of their divisional competition, yet will still need to sweat out the final few weeks of the season to reach the Big Ten title game. Right now I’d guess this team is Rose Bowl-bound, but even that might not be saying much.

21) Texas Tech

A couple of weeks ago the Red Raiders had a realistic shot at the Big 12 title. Now they’re playing for scraps in this ultra-competitive league. That’s unfortunate, as Tommy Tuberville has done a nice job with this program. Tech can still rebound and reach one of the Big 12’s nice bowls, so they can’t afford to let down.

22) Oklahoma State

West Virginia this week? Oh ho. There might be some points scored in this one. The Mountaineers have fallen off the map following their hot start, but OSU still has a lot to play for. Texas Tech and Oklahoma remain on the schedule. The Cowboys can build for a strong 2013 with a good finish now.

23) Louisiana Tech

The close loss to Texas A&M looks decent now and even though the Bulldogs play in the WAC they’re probably deserving of a ranking. I wouldn’t take them against most of the other squads in the top 25, but unless they’re facing a great defense you can be sure they’ll score.

24) TCU

I’ve been very impressed with how well TCU has responded in the wake of the Casey Pachall departure. A season-ending slate of K-State, Texas and Oklahoma doesn’t bode well for the Horned Frogs’ long-term chances in the rankings, though there’s no doubt that TCU can play with all those teams.

25) Kent State

The Golden Flashes make their debut in my rankings after an upset of Rutgers two weeks ago and another methodical MAC win in their last game. Time will tell which team in this league is the best – Toledo, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green also have an argument – but there’s no doubt Kent State has the best win of the contenders.

Pac-12 Report

Only one game this week is significant to the conference standings, but it’s a big one: Oregon State, ranked eleventh, travels to Palo Alto to meet fourteenth-ranked Stanford. As I said previously, this is essentially a semifinal elimination game for the North division, because these schools meet Oregon in the next two weeks. However, it’s undeniable that OSU has more on the line.

If Stanford wins, the Cardinal will still likely take a third loss the next week at Oregon, to say nothing of the now-dicey finale at UCLA. The Cardinal’s string of two straight BCS bowls is realistically over, unless they run the table and win the conference outright. Oregon State, on the other hand, could reach the Rose Bowl even at 10-2 by losing only to Oregon and Washington if the Ducks make the BCS Championship game.

This is a great matchup of similar teams. Stanford leads the country in rush defense; OSU is fifth. The Cardinal like to pound the ball and hit you with play-action; the Beavers (philosophically, not necessarily in practice this year) do the same. Stanford’s front seven is physically superior, while Oregon State’s perimeter weapons have the edge on offense. In theory, this could be one for the ages.

In reality, I don’t think it will be that close. Outside of a great second half against USC, Stanford has struggled versus every quality team it faced this year and a couple of the not-so-quality ones. The Cardinal defensive front can stop the run but hasn’t faced any elite rushing offenses. Oregon State, except for a lull against Utah and Washington, has been consistent and relatively balanced throughout the year.

I expect the Beavs’ terrific receiving tandem of Brandin Cooks and Marcus Wheaton – no, they’re not as good as USC’s guys, stop it – to nevertheless scorch the Cardinal’s average secondary, allowing a decent amount of production from the OSU run game. Oregon State’s tough defense will hedge on the spectacularly one-dimensional Stanford offense and force the Cardinal into difficult passing situations that they won’t convert.

Elsewhere in the conference, Oregon and USC face potential pitfalls at California and hosting Arizona State, respectively. Both the Ducks and Trojans should win, though. USC is no doubt reeling with disappointment over the Oregon loss, but there’s not a lot to say when you give up school records in yards and points. UO, to its credit, was flawless offensively, which allowed wiggle room for the atrocious defensive performance.

If either team loses this week it will be as a hangover effect from that colossal shootout. ASU is decent but clearly not a true contender, as the Sun Devils have lost their past three games. Cal is still a mess, and although they always play the Ducks well at home that trend should end this season.

The other contests include Arizona, the darling of the Pac-12 South just a week ago, hosting Colorado in an adjust-your-expectations game to get to bowl eligibility, while South division leader UCLA goes to Wazzu in a dangerous contest that the Bruins should win to retain control of their own fate. Right now it’s looking like UCLA-USC will decide the South, though the Bruins still have a tough extra game against Stanford.

The final matchup is 4-5 Utah at 5-4 Washington, a very intriguing game. It’s hard to figure what the best-case scenario is for the conference here. Getting the Huskies to bowl eligibility would be nice, but they also play WSU in their finale and should be assured of a postseason appearance anyway. Utah has yet to play Colorado, so a win here might put both the Utes and Huskies into bowls.  Fans of the Pac-12 should root for this outcome.

Heisman Watch

This is a tough segment because I believe the best college football player in the country is Marqise Lee. But Lee doesn’t have a prayer of winning this season because of his team’s record. If he continues putting up massive numbers I might have a change of heart.

Collin Klein, QB, Kansas State

Did you see what happened when Klein came out against Oklahoma State? This award is still his to lose, even if there are actually some good challengers (finally). If you look at where this team would be without him, there’s no doubt that he’s the most indispensable player in the nation.

Braxton Miller, QB, Ohio State

Everything said about Klein can be repeated for Miller, though his level of competition is lower and he’s playing without any kind of media pressure. I shudder to think of the record this Buckeyes team would have with any other QB. From the moment he stepped onto the field as a freshman he’s been the anti-Terrell Pryor.

Kenjon Barner, RB, Oregon

As with backfield mate LaMichael James a few years ago, Barner deserves to be a finalist but probably shouldn’t win. The system, etc., complaints are true, though there’s no doubt that he’s a very talented back. He would just have to do something extraordinary – over 2,000 yards extraordinary – to win.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Oh, Lane Kiffin. First it was that rascally behavior at Tennessee, then the jersey-swapping trick against Colorado, now a ball-deflating semi-scandal against Oregon. Is there nothing you won’t do? This guy should have his own sitcom. Deflating game balls is an ancient football tactic, one that probably has old-timers chuckling to themselves in their rockers, but utilizing it in 2012 is shameless, even for Kiffin.

Adidas’ football uniforms are the embarrassment of the college landscape, but the company outdid itself with Mississippi State’s horrendous whitewashed home jerseys last weekend. What reasoning went into a) not wearing colors at home, b) designing a new logo for the helmet instead of the classic M-State and c) subsequently coloring everything white-on-white so none of the design was visible? I hope the players and fans thought they looked cool while getting beat on their home field by 30.

I got lucky in my rankings because Toledo played on Tuesday night and lost, otherwise the Rockets would have been in the top 25. Instead I gave the spot to Kent State; the Golden Flashes are one of a handful of streaking MAC teams who have just one or two losses. This is quickly becoming the nation’s best and tightest conference race, though unfortunately very few people are watching.