You wouldn't like me when I'm angry

Questions were answered this week. A whole bunch of ‘em, in fact. Let’s see: my doubts about USC? Vindicated. Issues with Virginia Tech? Lost to previously winless Pittsburgh. I didn’t predict Notre Dame handling Michigan State with ease, but it officially let the nation know that the Big 10 is a joke (although Wisconsin and Ohio State should have tipped us off to that).

The headlining story of the weekend was USC’s loss to Stanford, but the more relevant news long-term was the continuing series of awful performances by Big 10 schools. The conference picked up right where it left off last week, with Ohio State fortunate to escape an average Cal team at home. Minnesota struggled to put away Western Michigan, Iowa barely beat Northern Iowa, Ball State beat Illinois and Wisconsin needed a missed field goal to survive Utah State. All of these games were at home. Then, of course, there was the league’s last real hope, MSU, getting shut down in its own stadium. All 12 Big 10 teams played at home, by the way. Shameless.

(I noted last week that MSU was the last undefeated Big 10 team, which wasn’t entirely true. Northwestern and OSU are still undefeated, but I didn’t include them because no one expects the Wildcats to challenge for the BCS title and the Buckeyes are postseason-ineligible.)

I was certainly surprised to see USC go down in the fashion the Trojans did, even though I said before the season I didn’t think they were as good as people were saying. It was more surprising to me that Stanford was the team to expose USC. Given the lack of secondary speed on the Cardinal D, you would have expected the Trojans’ receivers to run wild. They did for about a quarter, but then the Cardinal wised up to Matt Barkley’s game, which seemed to consist of throwing solely to Marquise Lee, never deeper than five yards down the field. The Trojans never really threatened again. More on both teams in the Pac-12 section.

In more frightening news there was the performance Alabama put on in Fayetteville, where they eviscerated Arkansas 52-0. Granted, we now know we can add the Razorbacks to the list of teams that were vastly overrated in the preseason (which also includes Wisconsin and Virginia Tech). But 52-0 is impressive against an FCS team. It’s hard to know what to think about this Bama team. Are they really that good? Thus far the things that should have at least somewhat bothered them – new starters on defense, zero experience at receiver – have been no problem whatsoever. It helps that Crimson Tide’s O line can flatten almost anybody in the country, but even the run-heavy nature of the offense shouldn’t be a big deal. I can’t imagine the team ever being in a must-throw situation anyway.

Last week ended up being more entertaining than expected, but this week conference play really gets going so I shouldn’t have to say that again. Thursday night features an interesting mid-major mash-up when BYU travels to face Boise State on the blue, while the Friday game has last year’s darling (Baylor) versus this year’s early favorite for that title (Louisiana-Monroe). The Saturday slate is light until the evening, when we get some of the best matchups of the young season: Michigan – Notre Dame, Kansas State – Oklahoma, Clemson – Florida State and Arizona – Oregon.

Top 25

It finally makes sense to rank teams, even though some (like Oregon) still haven’t been tested. At least at this point we’ve seen enough of most squads to know more or less where they’re headed this season.

1) Alabama

As stated above: Wow. The receivers are all young, the backs are a step down from the past two seasons and the defense is relatively inexperienced. So far, it hasn’t mattered. Right now I’d take the Crimson Tide over anyone at any location, home or away. They look that dominant.

2) LSU

The Tigers haven’t really played anyone (Washington doesn’t count) so it’s possible this is too high. Then again, they returned most pieces from last season’s juggernaut but upgraded at quarterback. I’m not going to knock them for a weak nonconference schedule after the historic run they nearly completed.

3) Oregon

The Ducks closed out an underwhelming preseason by crushing Tennessee Tech. There are still kinks to be worked out on both sides of the ball, but the fact remains that the only way to beat this team seems to be to physically overwhelm them. Right now the only schools with that capability are the two above.

4) Oklahoma

Stupid for the Sooners to get jumped because they didn’t play. Until I see evidence to the contrary (a la USC), this team should be treated like one of the elite. The Big 12 road is long and perilous, but I still believe in OU. They might have even more playmakers on offense than Oregon.

5) Florida State

Very, very nice win against Wake Forest. True, the Demon Deacons are bad, but just as I said with Alabama, 52-0 is impressive no matter who you play. Besides, we’ll know just how for real these Seminoles are after this week’s mega-showdown with Clemson. FSU at home? I’ll take the ‘Noles.

6) West Virginia

Were it not for a) FSU’s win this week and b) WVU’s weak opponents thus far, I would have had the Mountaineers at fifth. Boy, have they been impressive. Geno Smith looks flawless, the offense shares the ball wonderfully and the defense has been solid. The competition is going improve just a bit, though.

7) Georgia

What about UGA’s first-half struggles (again) against mightily inferior FAU compelled voters to move the Bulldogs up to number five? Georgia has looked very good at times this year, very average at others, so rewarding them seems short-sighted. Remember how they looked last season against every good team they played? Wait and see with this squad.

8) Clemson

I’m biting. I like what the Tigers have shown so far this year. Even if Auburn is awful. Clemson has played in the efficient manner they began last season with before that second-half downturn. I don’t think they’ll win in Tallahassee this weekend, but they’re still a very good team that, at this point, deserves a high ranking.

9) South Carolina

The Gamecocks hammered another hapless patsy this week. Given that they struggled in their only real live action this season, I’d be lying if I said I had a lot of confidence in Carolina. Nevertheless, their defense is about as good as you’ll see this side of Alabama, so perhaps that can carry the team most of the year.

10) Stanford

This is an unfortunate side effect of so many Big 10 teams losing; I don’t have anyone else to rank above the Cardinal. While their win over SC was stirring, this really isn’t a top 10 team. I have to put them ahead of the Trojans, though, so for now this is where they go. The offense still needs a lot of work.

11) USC

Even I, a fairly vocal dissident to the USC bandwagon, was stunned at the ineptitude of the Trojan offense on Saturday. We already knew they couldn’t run; now this team can’t pass either? It’s not all doom and gloom, though. SC remains a very talented team with (thus far) few injuries, and their defense only gave up 21 points in defeat. Things could be a lot worse.

12) Notre Dame

Toyed with the idea of jumping ND into the top 10, but I have a sneaking feeling Michigan State might not be that good. The relevant thing is the Irish are, well, relevant. For the first time in my lifetime, there’s a team in South Bend that legitimately has the potential to win it all. Love it or hate it, that’s good for college football. Everybody needs a good villain.

13) Kansas State

I have K-State ahead of Texas for several reasons. We know what we have with KSU: a returning 10-win team whose grit is second to none and a veteran leader at the QB position. Texas has looked good so far this season, but the competition has been lackluster. I’m going with the proven commodity before I believe in the Longhorns.

14) Texas

With that said, the UT defense has been excellent in 2012. The question marks coming into the season were pretty much all on the offensive side but Texas seems to have improved in that regard (just ask Ole Miss). They’re not good enough to run the table in the Big 12 this year but they’ll figure into the picture and remain the chic pick in 2013.

15) Ohio State

The first Big 10 school, down at fifteenth? Gulp. Unfortunately for the Big 10, this is about as generous as I can be at this point. Nobody in the conference has looked particularly good and even the seemingly powerful Buckeyes were nearly tripped up at home by a mediocre Cal squad. Too bad OSU is banned from the postseason.

16) TCU

I’m a bit skeptical after the Horned Frogs could only manage a 20-6 win against Kansas in their first Big 12 game. I like QB Casey Pachall a lot and TCU has some nice weapons around him, which makes 20 points against what was one of the nation’s worst defenses a year ago underwhelming. They don’t play another league game until October, though.

17) Michigan

In a holding pattern after beating up new FBS member UMass. Three games into 2012, Michigan appears to be exactly what they were in 2011. That’s nothing to be ashamed of, but it’s not going to get UM back to where their fans think they ought to be. There’s more work to be done here. Beating Notre Dame next week would help.

18) UCLA

Houston wasn’t a test at all, but you still have to be impressed with the job on the whole UCLA did in the preseason. It was workmanlike, physical and efficient, and the end result was a 3-0 record heading into Pac-12 play. We’ll need to see the Bruins knock off a couple conference foes too, but for now I’m convinced this team will have a say in the division race.

19) Louisville

After crushing North Carolina for three quarters, the Cardinals had a near-disaster on Saturday. There’s no question that this team is the class of the Big East, but they very nearly gave one away, on their home field no less. At least there’s plenty for Teddy Bridgewater and Co. to improve before they get too pleased with themselves.

20) Florida

I’ll throw the Gators a bone here. After watching their inept offensive performances in the first two weeks I couldn’t possibly see them as a top 25 team. Given a couple games, though, Florida seems to have rounded into a very South Carolina-like form. As long as they can play defense and run effectively, they can win games. If they ever get down, all bets are off.

21) Arizona

A close win over a pretty good Toledo team, then the shootout win over Oklahoma State, now a blowout over FCS South Carolina State. I think Arizona has its best team since the ‘Cats nearly won the conference in 2009. The defense gave up big numbers in its only real test of the season (OSU), but the offense looks like it can score in bunches. We’ll know this week, when ‘Zona travels to Autzen to meet the three-time conference champs.

22) Nebraska

The 2-1 record is actually a bit of a smokescreen; I think Nebraska is better than last season. At the very least the Cornhuskers should be the co-favorites in the competitive Legends division. The one issue is that all the difficult games come in a row; after Idaho State this week, Nebraska doesn’t have an easy game until November against Penn State. If they make the league championship, they’ll have earned it.

23) Michigan State

The good news? MSU is giving up just 13 points per game. Those are Alabama-like numbers. The bad news? They’re only scoring 20. The conference opener in two weeks is Ohio State. The Spartans had better make some significant gains in the next 14 days, or we could have a massacre on our hands.

24) Boise State

The Broncos are stuck in a frustrating spot after their opening woulda-shoulda-coulda loss to Michigan State. They have the ability to run the table the rest of the way, but even an 11-1 record has proved insufficient for a midmajor to reach a BCS bowl in the past. However, given their struggles in-conference the past two seasons (BSU has not won a league title since 2009), perhaps it’s just best to focus on that.

25) Oklahoma State

All right, the OSU offensive machine is still humming along. We get it. But can they stop anyone? They couldn’t last year, even when they went 12-1. So far in 2012, there’s been no evidence that they’ve improved. I like the Cowboys, but it seems apparent they’re going to have problems in conference play. The Big 12 ain’t no cakewalk.

Pac-12 Thoughts

Well then. Mayhaps my calls for Stanford’s demise were a bit premature? In any case, Cal isn’t going to be a problem for the Cardinal this season, so there goes that prediction. Give all the credit in the world to David Shaw and the Stanford defense for putting the clamps on USC’s offense. However, Oregon is still the clear favorite in the North, even with the impressive display we say this week. Here why:

First, without taking anything away from Stanford, it is clear that I was absolutely right about USC. The team just isn’t nearly as good as the media hyped them up to be. Stanford’s front seven controlled the line of scrimmage, forced the Trojans to throw and adjusted nicely once they realized Barkley had locked on to one receiver. The Cardinal won’t be able to do the same against Oregon, because Oregon’s offense naturally spreads the ball around much more than USC’s does. That’s just a simple strategic fact.

Second, Stanford won’t be able to play as soft against UO because that’s exactly what Oregon wants. The Ducks live off the short and medium game with both quick passes and option runs. Playing conservative defensively over the top – as Stanford did to USC do prevent the deep ball – will thus backfire.

Third, the Oregon-Stanford game this year is at Autzen Stadium. The Ducks have blown out the Cardinal the past two seasons and scored over 50 points in both contests. Despite his late-game heroics Saturday, new QB Josh Nunes completed fewer than half his passes and remains a work in progress. When an opposing offense cannot throw consistently, UO tends to go blitz-crazy. I’m not confident Nunes can stand up to that and beat them in a shootout.

Now, it’s possible Stanford may try to adjust to fix these problems. Play the Ducks one-on-one outside. Blitz to control the interior line (as they did against USC). Continue to pound the ball to slow the game down. But they tried these things the past two years and the result was the same. This season’s Stanford team is certainly weaker than the last two; why should their defense suddenly be able to contain an Oregon offense that hasn’t slowed down in the slightest? In the end, as it always does, it’ll come down to UO’s athletes in the open field versus Stanford’s defenders. That’s a matchup Oregon always wins.

All of this does not apply to USC, though. It’s all a matter of styles. Stanford doesn’t have the personnel to outscore Oregon. The Trojans do, despite what we saw Saturday. That doesn’t mean USC will necessarily beat the Ducks on November 3^rd, but I expect they’ll play them closer than Stanford will. They might have to, because another conference loss – combined with UCLA’s resurgence – might mean they only get one shot at Oregon this season.

The Bruins, meanwhile, have become much more than that “other” team in L.A. Despite rolling out a new head coach, new offense and redshirt freshman QB in Brett Hundley, UCLA is leading the conference in offense through three games. Could they win the South – for real this time? Time will tell, though I’d still favor USC until the Bruins prove it in conference play. They have a great opportunity this week to make a statement against Oregon State, who remains an enigma after Hurricane Isaac forced them to play just a single game.

The important game this weekend is of course the cross-divisional matchup between Arizona and Oregon. The Ducks are undoubtedly the better team, but as we’ve seen many times, that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re guaranteed a victory. The Wildcats have taken to Rich Rod’s spread-option with aplomb and have the key element that made his West Virginia teams so lethal: a great QB-RB combo. Matt Scott and Ka’Deem Carey are the real deal, and given the lapses UO’s defense has shown in the first few weeks it’s same to assume the ‘Cats will score. The real question is whether they can slow down the Oregon offense in turn, which is probably unlikely.

In other league action, there’s the “Battle at the Bottom” when Colorado plays at WSU, a chance for USC to rebound at home versus Cal and a sneakily-important South contest between Utah and ASU in Tempe. Is USC really overrated, or was last week a fluke? Can Utah’s defense play well enough to cover for their pedestrian offense? How much better are the Sun Devils at home? Tune in and find out!

Heisman Watch

Although he hasn’t played a semblance of real competition yet, Geno Smith has to be considered the frontrunner. He’s a highly efficient QB on a title-contending squad that puts up big offensive numbers, so he fits the description. I predicted before the season that West Virginia would stumble against the tougher Big 12, but until that time comes Smith is the most likely candidate. His numbers thus far have also been eerily similar to RG3’s last year, if you believe in that kind of thing.

The case for Matt Barkley was severely damaged Saturday. It’s a long season, so there’s plenty of time for him to make up ground, but nothing he’s done to this point has been that impressive. To be honest, Jonathan Franklin is the better candidate in the City of Angels to this point. The UCLA back leads the nation in rushing and is dynamic enough to make plays in the passing game as well. If the Bruins continue to roll offensively, he’ll have a shot.

There’s a distinct sectional bias when it comes to the Heisman this year, though that’s because so many of the best candidates seem to come from the West (and because it’s hard to imagine Ohio State’s Braxton Miller playing at this level all season). That continues with the final member of my current short list, Oregon’s De’Anthony Thomas. In one sense, it’s strange to think that a player with no real position could be a Heisman frontrunner. However, as with all things relating to Thomas, the usual rules don’t seem to apply. He makes more of his minimal touches than any player in recent memory and, early in his career, seems to be the most perfect blend of player-to-system college football has ever seen. It’s hard to imagine such an indefinable player taking football’s top honor; yet at the end of this season perhaps it’ll be hard to imagine that we ever could have thought otherwise.

Random Thoughts and Observations

It will be fun to see what Michigan and Notre Dame have in store after playing one of the most memorable games of the season in 2011. Hopefully we’ll see better defense than the insane finish last year featured, when the teams scored a combined 21 points in the final 1:12 in just seven plays from scrimmage. It would only be fitting, though; the past two seasons Denard Robinson has stunned the Irish with touchdowns in the final 30 seconds to win.

SI cover curse? Oregon’s young Thomas will grace the cover of the September 24^th Sports Illustrated. The subsequent injuries and poor play of athletes who have appeared in the past are well-documented. Thomas has been remarkably healthy in his first year-plus at UO despite his slight frame (listed at 5’9”, 173 lbs., he is probably smaller). Could this be the end of his good fortune? Gulp.

Miller of Ohio State nearly earned himself a Stanzi award Saturday (named for the recent hot-and-cold Iowa QB) by tossing what should have been the go-ahead pick to Cal in the waning moments, then coming back to fire a long bomb for the lead. Miller gets off the hook because a) Cal didn’t score and b) he didn’t play badly enough throughout the game to really earn a Stanzi. I haven’t seen a performance worthy of one yet this season, but don’t worry, it’s coming.

Speaking of Cal… I normally would never take such a strong position on a coach’s employment, but that loss to the Buckeyes proved it’s time for Jeff Tedford to go. I’ve long defended Tedford (he’s an Oregon man, after all) and his inability to get the most out of the good recruiting classes Cal brings in. But the game has clearly passed him by to some degree. The Bears blew an absolutely golden – yeah, I went there – opportunity to beat Ohio State in the ‘Shoe and many of the reasons they did not can be attributed to playcalling. In particular, the decision to kick a fraidy-cat field goal on fourth and one deep in OSU territory with the score tied sticks out.

There’s just so much to say about this. Cal had momentum following Miller’s interception. Isi Sofele was averaging four yards a carry and the team averaged nearly six on the afternoon. Cal’s kicker had already missed two attempts left, and the ball was on the left hash. The Bears’ defense had stymied the Buckeyes the entire second half, allowing just a single scoring drive after the 13:30 mark of the second quarter. Yet out came the kicker (after a timeout by Cal, no less) to shank another one.

Well, we know what happened. Three plays later Miller dropped in a 70-yard touchdown that ended up winning the game. Here’s the excruciating thing: the odds are in the offense’s favor on fourth-and-one. Any number of scenarios could have played out if the Bears had gone for it: closer field goal, TD, turnover followed by another OSU turnover, or just forcing OSU to punt from deep in their own territory. Yet even had Cal gone for it on fourth down and failed, the absolute worst-case scenario would have been EXACTLY WHAT HAPPENED. There was no excuse for this decision, which finally turned me against Tedford. Now he’ll probably do something like go out and beat USC this week to save his job. But he shouldn’t.

Next week: I find something else to rant about, while we mourn the end of De’Anthony Thomas’ career following his unprecedented “spontaneous kneecap combustion,” which doctors simply dub “SI injury.”