I admit, I really didn’t see Kansas State
coming. After watching them win games last year on effort alone, I assumed
their talent-deficit roster would once again doom the Wildcats to failure
against their more talented Big 12 brethren. Through September, in fact,
there’s not actually been any evidence to the contrary. What K-State did
Saturday was a shock to the system. A Stoops-coached OU team, losing at home to
ranked team? Unheard of. It’s enough that I, like the voters, had to reward the
Wildcats for a job well done.
The flip side of this, of course, was that Oklahoma got exposed. This is particularly
stinging given how much I believed in the Sooners. But the most obvious problem
revealed in Norman
wasn’t that OU is a bunch of frauds; that team has the talent to play with
anyone. The problem was QB Landry Jones, who has mysteriously regressed since
last season. It’s true that losing top target Ryan Broyles to injury was a
setback to Jones, but logically he should have adjusted during the long
offseason. That hasn’t been the case.
So does that now make West Virginia the favorites in the Big 12? After
this week’s game against Maryland ,
I can’t see it. Geno Smith looked Heisman-worthy, but the overall team
performance was poor. The Mountaineers escaped by 10 against a highly inferior
opponent at home. I guess that puts KSU at the top of the list, but because of
their lack of playmakers I can’t see them going undefeated. For now they get
the nod in the polls, though.
By the way, I continue to be impressed with the pollsters. I
don’t know if this is the year the voters finally decided to start doing their
jobs or if this is a sign of the apocalypse, but once again the results just
seem to make too much sense. For the most part, that is. There are still the ridiculous
bits here and there, like Nebraska
being ranked and UCLA unranked when they have the same record and the Bruins
won head-to-head. By and large, though, it’s logical. LSU played a bad game
against Auburn and was passed by Oregon and nearly passed
by FSU. This makes sense. This is what should be happening.
Both the Seminoles and Ducks passed early-season tests
Saturday night, though they came in different situations. Oregon
faced a simple skill test: could the sometimes-maligned defense contain Arizona ’s explosive
attack? The answer was a decided “Yes.” There remain questions about the Ducks’
curious inability to run the ball, but the defense was the story of the game.
And, because it apparently wouldn’t be a regular week
without some Big Ten-bashing, here are the latest woeful results from the proud
Legends and Leaders: Wisconsin struggled once again, beating UTEP 37-26; Iowa
lost to Central Michigan; Ohio State had to put away UAB late; Michigan State
trailed at the half before beating Eastern Michigan; Michigan fell to Notre
Dame, and Illinois was blown out by Louisiana Tech. Minnesota and Northwestern
are both 4-0. During the middle of the day I realized that, without a doubt,
this is the worst Big Ten ever. It truly is the apocalypse.
Looking ahead, it’s another lean week, unless you really
think Baylor is a top 25 team and can hang with West Virginia . Ohio
State plays Michigan State ,
which was one of the worst games of last year. We’ll see how bad Wisconsin really is when the Badgers play at Nebraska . Louisiana
Tech, 3-0 and averaging 54 points a game, plays at Virginia and will likely beat the Cavaliers.
Missouri , fresh off their inaugural SEC
spankings, faces a game Central Florida team
that may very well beat them. None of the contenders should be challenged. The
best contest of the day might be one of the last: newly ranked Oregon State
travels to Tucson
in a late-night battle against the still-smarting Wildcats. That’s about it.
Top 25
1) Alabama
The Crimson Tide finally ceded some points this week. Oh
well. Between their monstrous ground-and-pound attack and their insane 5.3
points allowed per game, I’m ready to proclaim this team number one by a wide
margin. The next three opponents are Ole Miss, Missouri
and Tennessee .
They might not give up another point until November.
2) Oregon
You just don’t do what the Ducks’ defense did against Arizona : six red-zone
possessions, no points? Even mighty ‘Bama would have trouble matching that. The
offense is clearly a work in progress, but Oregon fans had to be very relieved by what
the “other” side of the team delivered Saturday. Shutouts against conference
foes are rare and impressive.
3) Florida
State
Based on this week’s results, FSU has to be this high. In
the second half, the Seminoles thoroughly beat a team who, by the way, just
beat Auburn by
more than LSU did. After giving up 37 points, the previously stout defense has
to be a little embarrassed. USF is a good team to practice on this week.
4) LSU
The Tigers just never got going against Auburn . It’s early, but you have to be
concerned with the way the passing game still hasn’t improved. I guess now we
know why Zach Mettenberger didn’t beat out Jordan Jefferson and Jarrett Lee,
eh? The defense is top-notch, but you shouldn’t be in danger of losing to a
team that barely puts up double digits.
5) Kansas
State
I remain skeptical of this team’s long-term title hopes; it
just seems cruel to expect too much out of a group that, relatively speaking,
has so little to work with. I don’t think there’s much question at this point
who the toughest team in the country is. I rank KSU ahead of UGA and Carolina because the
Wildcats have actually played, you know, anyone.
6) Georgia
7) South Carolina
With a resume similar to Georgia ’s
and another easy win on the way (Kentucky ?
Really? Did the SEC plan this? Actually, probably yes), there’s not a lot to
say about the Gamecocks. They expectedly thrashed Missouri in the Wildcats’ first conference
road game. Connor Shaw rebounded nicely to go an eye-popping 20-21 last game,
though his health remains a factor.
8) Stanford
The Cardinal had Saturday off to prepare for their Thursday
game at Washington
(as if they needed it). This is the first road game of the year, but I doubt it
will matter. UW has been massively outclassed in the last two contests. Things
to improve for this week: more efficiency in the passing game, less making Matt
Barkley sad.
9) Notre Dame
To be completely honest, Michigan and MSU probably aren’t that good.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to not get excited about this team. The painful years
of getting trashed on the field and by the media (and folks like me!) are being
exorcized seemingly every down by this resilient, hard-working bunch.
10) West Virginia
Hmmm. Things I was impressed with: Geno Smith and Tayvon
Austin. Things I was not impressed with: everything else. Maryland is way too average to let hang
around for four quarters. I’m pretty sure someone in the Big 12 can beat this
team. They’ll need the right combination of offense and defense, but it’ll happen.
11) USC
How underwhelming can a 27-9 victory be? When it comes
against Cal ,
very. SC led early and held a huge yardage advantage. By all rights, it should
have been over by halftime, yet Cal
actually had the ball in the red zone trailing by only eight late in the third
quarter. A lot of things still need to get cleaned up.
12) Clemson
For about 34 minutes, everything was going the Tigers’ way.
They had Florida State right where they wanted them, having
sprung multiple explosion plays that shocked the Seminole defense. Then came
the avalanche. It’s unfortunate these teams play in the same division, because
a title game rematch would be sweet.
13) Texas
The Longhorns should be able to contain Oklahoma State ’s
passing attack without too much trouble. Getting an extra week to prepare can
only have helped the stingy Texas D. The offense still has questions marks and
must prove things on a week-to-week basis; UT hasn’t put together a great
scoring performance against a good team in two years.
14) Florida
Shutting out Kentucky
does nothing for me. However, the Gators are off this week before hosting LSU.
With the way the Tigers just played I might actually take UF in that game. A
lot depends on Jeff Driskel – has he really improved as a quarterback, or was
it just the result of bad competition. LSU tends to live off bad
quarterbacking.
15) Ohio
State
Another week, another shaky performance by the Buckeyes.
Aside from one outburst keyed by turnovers, OSU showed nothing against
(another) vastly inferior opponent. This team could very well go undefeated in
the watered-down Big Ten, but it’s a good thing they’re ineligible, because
they’d get hammered in a BCS game.
16) TCU
Somewhat sluggish effort by the Horned Frogs. I’d like to
see this team put a whole game together for once. If they can, there’s no
reason why they couldn’t win the conference. The defense-first approach is
certainly more sustainable than WVU’s all-passing philosophy.
17) Oklahoma
Thanks for repaying all my loyalty, Sooners. I’m not sure
why a team with OU’s riches can’t figure it out, but they’ve only got one more
week to do it. Next week is Texas .
The Longhorns have the defensive personnel to make life miserable for a
sputtering offense. Oklahoma
has the offensive talent to make them pay for trying. They just have to show
up.
18) Oregon
State
Who would have thought? The Beavers are essentially 3-0 (I’m
counting Nicholls
State early) with a pair
of wins over teams that were ranked at the time. Before the season nobody would
have penciled in Wisconsin
and UCLA as victories. Now the tough part begins: playing as the favorite (in
front of the raucous ‘Zona Zoo, no less).
19) Louisville
Well… that was uninspiring. A week after nearly giving a
game away to UNC, the Cardinals only beat FIU by a touchdown. Because of the
Big East’s goofy schedule they have another week to hash things out, but this
can’t continue. The league badly needs this team to stay undefeated.
20) Michigan
State
To be honest, this might be too high. We pretty much know
what we have for the season with MSU: a good defense and Le’Veon Bell. The
glacial pace of the offense didn’t end up hurting the team against EMU, but it
will at some point. There’s just not enough on offense to expect this team to
contend.
21) Boise
State
As eye-gougers go, last Friday’s BYU-Boise game was fairly
entertaining. It makes for great TV when a defensive tackle’s interception wins
the game. It’s less humorous for a coach when he scores your team’s only
points. BSU might not make it through the Mountain West unscathed.
22) Oklahoma
State
Big test this week against Texas ,
but regardless of the outcome OSU figures to be ranked in the coming weeks
anyway: the following two games are Kansas and
Iowa State . The important thing is deciding
what exactly this team wants to be, a shootout-minded group or one that plays
defense.
23) UCLA
UCLA should probably fall out of the rankings for at least a
week, but I still want to rank Nebraska
so the Bruins stay. Despite the frustrating loss to Oregon State
when the team clearly thought it had turned a corner, there’s a lot to be happy
about. I still think I’d rather be a UCLA fan than a USC fan right now.
24) Nebraska
By all rights, Nebraska
should be the favorite in the Big Ten at this point. Now they need to prove it
by beating Wisconsin
this week. The division road isn’t easy with Michigan
State and Michigan on the horizon, but this is the
year to do it. Winning the conference opener at home is a crucial piece of the
puzzle.
25) Michigan
Hanging on. Just barely. I don’t think any of the other
fringe candidates (Rutgers ,
Mississippi State) could handle
the Wolverines. After turning the ball over six times against Notre Dame, Michigan only has itself
to blame. The good news is that conference play is now starting in the soft Big
Ten.
Pac-12 Thoughts
While much of the focus is on Oregon
(rightfully so) for their 49-0 pasting of Arizona ,
the bigger story this week is Oregon
State . I always assumed
the Ducks would win, I just didn’t know how many points they would allow. The
Beavers are a different story. The underdog in both their games so far, they’ve
come out swinging in a way unseen in the Mike Riley era.
Even when OSU had good seasons in the past, it was a
combination of great late-season play and pointed improvement from the
beginning of the year that led to their success. Now Oregon State
has opened the year with great defense and (largely) mistake-free offense,
trademarks of the halcyon Riley seasons but noticeably absent of late. The
Beavers have never (2000 notwithstanding) really put together a full year of
great performances; they generally turn it on after September and go from
there. What can they do if they play 12 games like this?
To be the voice of reason, I must note that UCLA is good but
not elite and Wisconsin
is undoubtedly bad. OSU still lacks the talent to beat Oregon and Stanford and a lot can happen
injury-wise the rest of the way. However, the Beavers have lost to even average
teams in the past in early-season flops, so just getting to 2-0 (really, 3-0)
is so important. Before the year I thought 6-6 was probably the ceiling for
this team. Now, who knows?
As impressive as Oregon ’s
defense was in blanking ‘Zona, there were a ton of questions raised about the
offense. The 3-3-5 seemed to completely stymie the Ducks’ line. This can’t keep
happening if the team wants to be a serious BCS title contender. Everything UO
does is predicated through their strong running game; without it, there’s no
play-action or uncertainty for the defense. Everything depends on the line,
which has frankly been substandard to this point.
It’s worth noting that Cal
ran a 3-3-5 two years ago in Berkeley
the night they nearly upset the undefeated Ducks, 15-13. No other team in the
Pac-12 runs this style of defense, but after seeing this game they might try
it. We know teams have been searching for how to stop this offense for three
years to no avail.
USC wasn’t great against Cal on Saturday, but there’s not a lot more
to say about that game. Cal
is a mess and the Trojans should be better than they’re playing. A more
surprising finish was Colorado ’s
comeback against Wazzu. Neither of those teams is any good, though, so it won’t
really have an impact on the league.
The most surprising result in the conference was actually
the other late game, ASU versus Utah .
The Utes were coming off an excellent performance against a ranked BYU team and
figured to lock down the Sun Devils defensively. Instead, they got their doors
blown off. Where was that Arizona State team against Missouri ? For whatever reason, ASU plays
much better at home. The problem? The next game is on the road. Granted, it’s Cal , but this is exactly
the kind of game the Devils have dropped in the past.
This weekend we have both potential blowouts and good games.
The heavyweights, Oregon and Stanford, should
handle the Washington
schools fairly easily. UCLA, coming off a frustrating defeat, should likewise
have no trouble with Colorado .
But ASU-Cal and OSU-Arizona are hard to pick. Both visitors should be confident,
maybe overconfident, after this week. Both home teams will be angry. Should
make for some great TV.
Heisman Watch
The frontrunner remains Geno Smith, who has put together the
best numbers to date. Jonathan Franklin’s hopes took a major hit when Oregon State
shut him down last week; he’ll need to put up huge stats and keep winning to
have a shot. De’Anthony Thomas dropped a little because he failed to score
against Arizona , but there’s a larger margin
of error for him than there is for Franklin .
Braxton Miller might actually be second at this point, because imagining Ohio State
without him is scary.
Random Thoughts and Observations
In case you missed it, the Miami (FL) - Georgia Tech game was insane. I've never seen a football game flip momentum so drastically so many times. The 'Canes dropped 19 in the first quarter and looked headed for a blowout. Then Tech scored 36 straight over the next quarter and a half. Miami, not to be denied, scored the final 17 of regulation, tying the game with 27 seconds left. Then they stuffed the Yellow Jackets on fourth and one and scored in two plays to win in overtime. I have no idea how this happened.
The only tidbit from this week I found very interesting was
the news that Taylor Heinicke of Old Dominion broke the Division I passing
record with 730 yards against New
Hampshire . Heinicke surpassed the 22-year-old record
set by the legendary David Klingler of Houston ,
whose 716 yards against ASU in 1990 remain the FBS record. That is absolutely
ridiculous.