Yesterday it was the title contenders, today I bring you my
picks for each conference, sans the Pac-12. My in-depth Pac-12 preview will
come tomorrow.
Conference outlook
ACC
Projected champion: Florida State
On paper, the Seminoles seem to have it all: talent, schedule
and bitter taste from last season to build on. They’ll still need to dethrone
Clemson, but with this season’s matchup at home that isn't unreasonable.
The Tigers will certainly make a run at a second Atlantic
and conference crown, but it's doubtful all the lucky finishes from last season will repeat themselves in 2012. The dark horse pick in the division is North Carolina State North Carolina
(though the Tar Heels are ineligible) and Georgia Tech, but VT ought to have it
locked down. In the title game, I think FSU is just more talented than Tech.
Big 10
Projected champion: Wisconsin
over Nebraska
This is tough one. It’s safe to say that the Leaders
division will likely come down to the Badgers and Ohio State (who is ineligible) Wisconsin hosts that contest, so I’m pretty
comfortable with taking the Russell Wilson-less (but still-formidable) boys
from Madison
there. The Legends is a mess, though. Will it be Nebraska ,
the team who crushed last year’s winner, Michigan State Michigan , the team who hammered Nebraska ? Perhaps MSU,
who comfortably handled Michigan ?
Even Iowa , who misses Wisconsin
and Ohio State Wisconsin ’s
ground game should be enough to beat any challenger into submission.
Big 12
Projected champion: Oklahoma
It’s gotta be the Sooners. Texas
is a legitimate second option if OU stumbles, but as I laid out in my BCS title
contenders section, few teams in the country are as loaded as Oklahoma . After being a massive
disappointment since 2009, Texas should really
return to form this year as the yin to Oklahoma ’s
yang, but the Longhorns still need another year of seasoning. I’m ready to
proclaim them the favorites in 2013, though. Oklahoma State is also still hanging around,
but let’s be honest: last year was it. Everything fell into place perfectly in
a way it might never again for OSU. I don’t expect the program to fall off the
map, but a clear step backwards this season is inevitable. I also already
explained why West Virginia ,
despite a wealth of offensive riches, won’t cut it this season. The only other
team on a similar level is TCU, who I think will surprise in their first Big 12
season. However, they still shouldn’t finish higher than about third.
Big East
Projected champion: Louisville
There are a lot of teams at the same wavelength in the Big
East, five of which I think have a legit shot at the title and requisite BCS
berth (sweet Lord, please let it be 2014 already so we can stop subsidizing
this league’s mediocrity). USF, Pitt, Cincy and Rutgers
are all about as good as the Cardinals. Each team hosts some combination of the
other contenders. There’s nothing to really separate them, so I like Louisville . They’ve got
the best QB by far in young Teddy Bridgewater, who I touted last season as a
player of the future. Well, I’ve decided the future is now. I’ve also always liked USF’s B.J. Daniels, but he can never seem to play consistently or stay healthy.
The Cardinals get the Bulls in the ‘Ville, so picking them makes about as much
sense to me as anything that goes on in this nutty conference.
Conference USA
Projected champion: SMU over Southern Miss
In the East the main contenders are the Knights and last
year’s champ Southern Miss. USM is still a threat but the Golden Eagles do lose
a lot. In terms of overall talent I think UCF has been the best or second-best
team in this conference for three or four years now, which should translate
into a highly successful year in 2012. Unfortunately, the Knights were just
banned from the postseason. The West is a little trickier. Houston ,
Tulsa and SMU
are all very similar in both talent and scheme (explosive passing offense,
little D). I think the Cougars will drop off a bit after losing Case Keenum, so
that leaves the Golden Hurricane and the Mustangs. While I have a very healthy
respect for Tulsa , I’ll take SMU, who gets not
only Tulsa but also Houston at home this season. In the
championship game, I predict SMU will finally break through and take the
conference crown.
MAC
Projected champion: Ohio
over Western Michigan
I see the West as a two-team race between WMU and Toledo . Defending champ Northern Illinois would also be in the mix, but losing QB
Chandler Harnish will prove to be too much to overcome. Both the Broncos and
Rockets are led by excellent signal-callers; WMU’s Alex Carder is probably the
best QB in the MAC, and Toledo ’s
two-headed monster of Terrance Owens and Austin Dantin will wreak havoc on the
conference as well. Toledo
has a slightly tougher schedule and has to play at Western, so I’m going with
the Broncos. In the East, Ohio
looks to be the team to beat. I don’t see a true threat to the defending
division champs, who have quietly built a very solid program under Frank
Solich. The title game will go to the Bobcats, who should use the motivation of
last season’s heartbreaking loss to break through in the same way NIU did last
year.
Mountain West
Projected champion: Boise State
How weird is it that despite going 12-1 each of the past two
seasons the Broncos have not won a conference crown since 2009? No matter. Boise will roll through
their last season in the MWC. Even with uncertainty at QB for the first time in
four years, BSU remains the envy of their mid-major peers (especially now that
TCU is in the Big 12).You can’t look at this conference and see a legitimate
challenger for Boise .
Nevada is decent but still young, Fresno State
and Hawai’i changed coaches and San Diego State
Pac-12
Projected champion: Coming tomorrow
SEC
Projected champion: LSU over Georgia
I’ve been over the disgusting talent level on LSU’s roster
and also laid out why I think Alabama and Arkansas won’t be good
enough to beat the Tigers this year. The Crimson Tide need another season to
reload; the Razorbacks just don’t have enough to compete. The West seems pretty
cut-and-dry to me. The East is less so, but I still like Georgia to
repeat. Florida
will definitely be improved and the Gators D has the potential to be
scary-good. I think South Carolina will take a
step back this year, while Tennessee
will re-emerge as a program. The stiffest test will come from UF, but the
Bulldogs will have enough to win the division (they absurdly miss LSU, Bama and
Arkansas AGAIN). Then they’ll be served on a sacrificial altar to LSU in Atlanta again. If anyone cares about the newbies, Texas A&M will be about a .500 team this year and Mizzou will win around eight games.
Sun Belt
Projected champion: Troy
The Sun Belt, ever the butt of jokes and derisive laughter,
has made a some strides in the past few years. No longer is the SBC the
nation’s worst conference (that honor now goes to the WAC). Furthermore, some
members have made a splash on the public’s radar, such as last year’s Arkansas State Troy
finished a shocking 2-6 last season, but the Trojans will undoubtedly be back.
Emerging mid-major power FIU lost the league’s best player but return a great
defense. Western Kentucky returns a ton of starters from last year’s
second-place finish, and defending champ Arkansas State Troy to rebound, though I could be way off the mark here.
WAC
Projected champion: Utah State
Oh, how far the WAC has fallen. Once a 16-school behemoth
that provided a home for all the displaced small programs, the West Coast’s
original mid-major conference has almost completely dissolved. I honestly don’t
expect the league to last much longer as an FBS conference, which is a shame.
With the defections of Boise State , Hawai’i , Nevada and Fresno State Texas
State Utah
State
Tomorrow is the third and final section of my 2012 preview, which concludes with all my wonderful thoughts about the Pac-12 this season.
Sort of seems like the PAC-2 this year.
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