It’s been many a month since I last checked in, and my, how
the landscape has changed. New coaches in every corner of the country,
continuing rumblings regarding the NEXT round of conference expansion and more
arrests, dismissals and second chances than anyone could have hoped. Oh yeah,
and the Jerry Sandusky trial ended as well, where the former Penn State
assistant was found guilty of 45 of 48 counts. The NCAA then dropped the
hammer, opting for four years of semi-death penalty rather than the actual death
penalty. It was a swift, and correct, course of action. Of course, there’s been
nary a peep about Oregon or the new round of Miami problems… but I
suppose we’ll get to those soon enough. Like seemingly every offseason in this
internet age, it wasn’t a quiet one.
But I’d rather talk about the savory parts of college
football than the seedy underbelly. The 2012 season is rapidly approaching,
which means it’s time for all the traditional wild speculation and unfounded
optimism to really get going. In that vein, I’ll be delivering a series of
posts during the summer regarding predictions and pre-nalysis of the upcoming
season.
But first! The playoff dream appears to finally be coming to
fruition. Let the masses rejoice in the fact that we may have just locked up
SEC superiority for the next half-decade. Hooray? For now, though, this is good
news. Regardless of the logistical concerns that still needs be ironed out or
the potential pitfalls of a selection committee, this is what fans have been
clamoring for for a decade. True, there will always be teams left out and the
“greatest regular season in sports” will be somewhat diminished. However,
there’s a clear difference between the fifth-best team getting the shaft
compared to the third. At the very least, we won’t have to deal with absurd
hypotheticals anymore. A championship will be decided on the field, not by aging,
myopic sportswriters and coaches harboring extreme sectional biases.
Of course, how the ever-changing conferences will fit into
this playoff is far from determined. With the debate over whether only
conference champions should be selected raging, the more important question
remains how many conferences will even exist in the near future. “Automatic
qualifying” status has been eliminated, but no one should be fooled: this
playoff will only serve to widen the gap between college football’s haves and
have-nots. Can you really imagine a non-Big Six team getting the nod? Even an
undefeated mid-major would be hard-pressed to beat out a one-loss SEC, Big 10,
or Pac-12 squad. For that matter, the Big Six leagues are essentially no more: all
reports from the realignment meetings have noted the clear disparity between
the Big East and its former peers. This was inevitable after so many of the
conference’s teams were snapped up by other leagues.
The real question, though, is how the ACC fits into all
this. If we’re headed toward four superconferences, which seems increasingly
more likely, the ACC is in danger. The SEC, Big 10 and Pac-12 will always be
power players because of their geographic positioning. A year after looking
death straight in the eye, the Big 12 has rebounded and is now in a much better
situation than the ACC. Despite its size disadvantage, the Big 12 has a pair of
historic powerhouses in Oklahoma and Texas that the ACC can
never hope to match. It doesn’t help that Miami (FL) is nearly a decade removed
from contender status, or that Florida
State
A larger playoff of eight teams would, I think, be a much
better solution. It would ensure that the ACC and any deserving mid-majors
wouldn’t be left out. We’re taking baby steps with this playoff thing, though.
For now, the four-team format will become the new status quo. That means the
ACC will almost certainly be left out for the foreseeable future… unless, of
course, Florida State
This brings me to what this is all about: the national
championship, and the teams who realistically might win it in 2012. It’s accepted
that there are only about a dozen true title contenders every season, almost of
which will start the year in the top 15 of the national polls. Auburn
in 2010 and Oklahoma
in 2000 were slightly further down the list, but in general teams that win and
play for the BCS championship require the early boost of ranking support. The
following is the groups of teams that will have such rankings and whom I
believe have a schedule navigable enough to be legitimate contenders.
LSU
What a finish it could have been for the Tigers. With a
second win over Alabama ,
LSU would have ended the 2011 campaign with nine victories over ranked
opponents, a remarkable feat that would have allowed them to lay claim to the
title of “Best Team of All Time.” Alas, their shoddy quarterback play finally
caught with them. However, no one should feel bad for the Tigers. With seven
returning starters on offense (including four on the line) and another six on
D, LSU is primed to make another run. It’s a near-certainty that Georgia transfer
Zach Mettenberger will provide an upgrade at signal-caller and the returning
four-man running back rotation will ease his load as well. There’s more: after
taking on an uncharacteristically tough non-conference schedule in 2011, the
Tigers return to form this fall with home games against Towson ,
Idaho , Washington
and North Texas . Only UW should be able to
provide even token resistance. Oh, and Alabama
has to come to Baton Rouge ,
too. On paper, this is the nation’s top team.
You hear it every summer: “Can’t win the big game.” “Can’t
score on elite teams.” “Soft.” Well, if that’s the case, 99 percent of country
would like to be soft. OU has averaged just a smidge under 11 wins for the past
six seasons and has only failed to reach double-digit wins twice in the last
decade. If that’s underachieving, sign me up! But the Sooners have a lot going
for their 2012 iteration as well. The roster is staggering; eight offensive
starters return (not including starting fullback Trey Millard or option QB
Blake Bell), but definitely including four linemen. The skill position talent
is nasty, and they’re led by the top QB in the region in Landry Jones. On
defense? Merely seven returning starters, along with both specialists. Make no
mistake, OU is loaded for a title run. Additionally, after years of scheduling
at least one marquee nonleague foe, the Sooners face only Notre Dame at home
this year (still technically marquee, but very winnable). The other
non-conference games are Florida A&M and, curiously, at UTEP. The team does
have to travel to both of the Big 12 newcomers West Virginia and TCU, but the Sooners are
simply better. An undefeated season is certainly attainable.
Now, hear me out. At face value, the calls for a Seminole
renaissance the past two years have looked premature. But lost in FSU’s
back-to-back four-loss campaigns was the fact that the team just looked so much
better. Though ousting Bobby Bowden was painful, it was the kick the program
needed to return to greatness from mere adequacy. This fall, the Seminoles
feature eight returning starters on offense and a ridiculous nine on D. The
depth, while not at Oklahoma/LSU/Alabama level, is still good. But the saving
grace for FSU is their schedule. Remember, this is the ACC. The hardest stretch
of the season will clearly be in late September, when the Seminoles host
Clemson, then travel to South Florida and North Carolina State
USC
The Trojans, as many have noted, face an interesting
situation in 2012. Fresh off their NCAA sanctions, SC appears to have a
two-deep rivaled by few teams in the country. Eight offensive starters return,
including – in a recurring theme – four-fifths of the line. QB Matt Barkley is
the obvious star, but it’s not just about returning starters. “Starters”
implies good veteran players, and that doesn’t do justice to Roberts Woods and
Marquise Lee, who form the best receiving tandem in the country. Seven starters
are also back on defense, where the secondary could be among the nation’s best.
However, this is all cut with a tenuous sense of fear about depth. A couple
years of scholarship reductions have dramatically narrowed the Trojans’ margin
of error, so some bad luck with injuries here or there might completely derail
SC’s comeback campaign. The schedule is manageable, but there unfortunate
reality is that the Trojans will likely have to defeat Oregon twice to reach the BCS title. Both
games would thus be in L.A. ,
but such a task is easier said than done. Despite these concerns, SC is still a
legitimate contender.
A team losing its all-time leading rusher and all-time
winningest QB shouldn’t be in position to make a championship run. Thanks to a
lucky combination of recruiting, schedule and scheme, however, Oregon will. Though some
have questioned the Ducks’ RB depth, it probably won’t end up being a major
problem: the team rushed for an obscene 4,189 yards on 6.7 yards per carry last
season, leading the nation in both categories (no other team finished with 6+
yards per rush). The more serious question is whether the new QB(s) can keep
the offense clicking. As long as Oregon
has the threat of the pass to alleviate pressure on the ground game, the Ducks
will fly high. Without it, there will be serious problems. The talk coming out
of Eugene is that that this may be Oregon most talented
defense ever. It might need to be, until the offense gets everything going. The
good news for UO is that the schedule sets up beautifully to break in new
players; it’s almost guaranteed the team will be 8-0 heading into the showdown
with USC. The bad news is that from there the schedule becomes nightmarish,
playing at Cal and rival Oregon State along with a home date against fellow
North division heavyweight Stanford. Make no mistake, Oregon will be a player, but to what extent
still remains to be seen.
That list of championship contenders probably looks very
small. It’s also conspicuously missing some top teams who will be touted as
title contenders by the media. That’s because I put those teams in the following
category of squads who have the talent to win the championship but will be
undone by one factor or another. I’ve listed these “critical errors” in my
analysis of these teams.
The 2011 champs will undoubtedly enter the season in the top
5. The Crimson Tide also return four-fifths of their offensive line and QB A.J.
McCarron, who seemed to come of age in the BCS title game. However, the
similarities with LSU seem to end there. While Bama will probably physically
overwhelm most of their opponents on talent alone, there are some key areas of
concern that will ultimately cripple any chances of a repeat. The skill
positions have been decimated by graduation and early-NFL entry, as the top
four pass-catchers from 2011 are all gone. This includes Heisman finalist Trent
Richardson. The leading returning receiver had just 17 catches a year ago.
Losses on defense, too, will play a role. Remember that vaunted secondary that
was touted as the nation’s best? Only one starter is back, to go along with
just four other starters on the defensive side. The Crimson Tide are likely
still the most talented team in the country, but inexperience will eventually
catch up with the team this season.
Make no mistake, Georgia is talented. But no one
should be fooled by last season’s 10 wins. The Dawgs didn’t beat a single
quality opponent all year, missed LSU, Alabama
and Arkansas
out of the West and got hammered by the ranked teams they played. Boise State South Carolina and Michigan State Georgia
does have a great QB in Aaron Murray, but that’s not going to be enough to
seriously contend for a national title.
This is already a chic dark horse pick – in my opinion,
people trying to find a relative outsider to rally around if the Mountaineers
get off to a good start. The problem is, it’s too clever by half. Yes, the
offense is going to be nasty. Geno Smith, Stedman Bailey and Tavon Austin
against Big 12 defenses? Whoa. And yes, the schedule is quite favorable (Oklahoma , KSU and TCU visit Morgantown ). But that’s about where the
optimism ends. Only six starters return on defense, a unit that gave up 27
points per game last year. West
Virginia has also recently made starting slow a
habit, a trend they must reverse to have any hope in their move to the tougher
Big 12. Don’t get caught up in the leftover hype from the Orange Bowl. Clemson
really wasn’t that good. More importantly, the Big 12 is. No matter how well
the offense and schedule seem tailor-made for Big 12 shootouts, the fact
remains that the conference is a HUGE step up in competition from the Big East.
Notre Dame
This is partly a joke. But it’s important to note that this
year’s Notre Dame squad is very talented. Regardless of the media fawning over
the Irish (as well as the backlash to the media), that is true. This program
has been pulling in major talent since Brian Kelly arrived and if a solid QB
can be found, ND will actually be worthy of the attention they get for the
first time in several years. Now for the caveat: the schedule. In previous
years I – and other commentators – have derided the Irish for their, shall we
say, lack of aggressive scheduling. That’s not the case this year. What madman
in the athletic department put this monstrosity together? Notre Dame opens with
Navy in Ireland
and then hosts Purdue. That sounds reasonable, but from there the schedule gets
downright masochistic. At Michigan
State Michigan . Miami
(FL) in Chicago .
Stanford. BYU. At Oklahoma .
Pitt. At Boston College Wake Forest
Something to ponder, until I return tomorrow with my
conference predictions.
Matt Barkley will win the SEC
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