We Still Know Nothing, Except That Les Miles Isn't a Great Coach

National Overview

In spite of a seeming dearth of quality matchups, Week Two produced much more drama than its predecessor. It was a pleasant surprise to see Troy hanging with second-ranked Clemson (well, maybe not in Death Valley) and Nicholls State nearly take down Georgia. But that was far from the totality of the excitement this weekend; Arkansas - TCU turned out to be a barnburner, LSU was on the ropes early against Jacksonville State, and Central Michigan notched an upset of dubious veracity at Oklahoma State.

It's a shame the Cowboys got jobbed on that intentional grounding call, but for the record, there was also a blatant uncalled hold on Okie State's go-ahead touchdown minutes earlier. In the end, voters probably won't punish OSU too harshly if it wins out, so the team's fate is still in its own hands, despite the current outrage emanating from Stillwater.

The smattering of minor upsets and close calls underscored the simple fact that we still know very little about every team. Even squads that have already played a high-profile showdown might have more to reveal. In Oklahoma's case, for example, the Sooners could have been vastly overrated (yet again) in preseason predictions and exposed against a mid-major in Houston. Or they might have also run into a top-five team, in which case a 10-point loss in a virtual road game in the season opener is no great shame. We'll get a better idea of where OU - and a handful of other teams - really stack up starting this week.

In an early AAC test, Houston (which should surely be in the top five by now, given Clemson's struggles) has to go to Cincinnati for its first road game Thursday night. Greg Ward, Jr. will play, but don't underestimate the Bearcats. This is not a warm-up like last week against FCS foe Lamar. Cincy can play, and a Cougars victory ought to be treated as a quality one.

Saturday morning offers the next context with real intrigue, as mercurial Tennessee takes on Ohio. The Volunteers should of course roll to an easy win, but given UT's struggles to this point (despite a 2-0 start) it might be worth keeping an eye on this one while watching the second-biggest game of the day: Florida State at Louisville.

Both teams are ranked in the top 10, but to be frank, I'd be shocked if the Cardinals even stay within a score. Louisville's offensive numbers thus far are impressive, but they came against the equivalent of high school defenses. It's nice that Lamar Jackson likes to run around and make plays with his feet, but he's completed less than 60 percent of his passes and won't have anywhere near the same amount of time to make decisions against the fierce FSU defense.

Also at 9 a.m. Pacific, there's a pair of teams on upset watch in the Big Ten. Penn State is favored by nine over Temple, which is interesting given how thoroughly the Owls dismantled the Nittany Lions last year. Meanwhile, Iowa has the thankless task of hosting five-time defending FCS champion North Dakota State, which could spell real trouble for the Hawkeyes if they let the Bison pull them into a slugfest.

Moving on to the midday slate, we get Alabama trying to avoid an unthinkable third-straight loss to SEC West rival Ole Miss. The Rebels are definitely a quality team, but they appear to have regressed from the past two seasons, and it would be stunning to see anything other than a huge blowout for the Crimson Tide. It's what they do.

Oregon - Nebraska, also at 12:30 p.m., will provide a great look into what the Ducks and Cornhuskers are working with in 2016. If Oregon really is going to be a Pac-12 afterthought, it wouldn't a surprise to see NU make a statement to move back into the national spotlight. With a win, the Huskers would also announce their candidacy for the Big Ten title.

At the same time, there's Pittsburgh at Oklahoma State, a sneaky-good intersectional matchup. The Panthers will try to shake off that near-collapse versus Penn State, while OSU has to bounce back from the Central Michigan controversy. I expect a fantastic game in Stillwater featuring two very different offensive styles.

In the afternoon time slot, Texas A&M has to travel to Auburn for a contest that should offer referendums on more than just these two teams. UCLA and Clemson's reps are also at stake, as we might find out if the Bruins and (Clemson) Tigers were simply overhyped. It's increasingly looking that way.

Michigan State also faces a huge test at Notre Dame. It's unclear why the Spartans are ranked so high, but ND's defense didn't engender much confidence at Texas, either. I think the Fighting Irish are rightly favored, so we'll see if MSU will return some of that usual strong Spartan D and get a quality road win.

Then there's the big one: Ohio State at Oklahoma. The Sooners, in typical OU fashion, cheated us out of a fantastic top-five Week Three showdown by losing to Houston. No matter. This is still a delightful non-conference battle that could have major Playoff implications. No doubt Houston is rooting hard for Oklahoma to improve its resume by, in turn, beating another top-ranked school. OSU overwhelmed its first two overmatched opponents, but OU in Norman is a different animal. Despite their inexperience and the location, though, I have to favor the Buckeyes. The Sooners have flopped one time too many on the big stage.

In late-night action, USC and UCLA will try to save their seasons on the road at Stanford and BYU, respectively. While the Pac-12 contest has a lot more at stake, the Bruins need to avoid another black eye for the league in Provo. It won't be easy. More on these games in the Pac-12 section.

Playoff Poll

It's still too early, but there are always absurdities in the polls to point out. It's clear voters still place far too much of an emphasis on running up the score against terrible opponents, as Louisville's rankings (10th in both polls) demonstrate. LSU is the poster boy for why preseason polls are terrible, somehow retaining a ranking despite losing its opener and struggling against an FCS team in the first half this week. On the other hand, Georgia was roundly rebuked by both polls for nearly losing to Nicholls State, which is a positive sign.

Pac-12 Report

So much for Washington State, eh? There was a slim chance the Cougars could rebound from the opening loss to Eastern Washington to take a redeeming win at Boise State, but the old Wazzu bugaboos - falling behind early, poor defense - rose up to put this squad in an 0-2 hole to start the year. The Cougs could go unbeaten the rest of the way (not that they will) and wouldn't garner a Playoff invite.

Unfortunately, the WSU game was just the start of an awful late-night slate the Pac-12 is probably glad most the country missed by going to bed early. San Diego State ran all over Cal, proving that the Bears are exactly who most of us thought they were. Arizona fell behind 21-3 at the half to Grambling State, averting disaster only because it was playing an FCS foe. Arizona State got the win over Texas Tech, but despite Sun Devil running back Kalen Ballage's insane night, the result said a lot more about the Red Raiders' defense than ASU.

UCLA and Oregon slogged though decent wins against overmatched opponents, looking largely uninterested throughout their respective games. Washington got another blowout, though against another patsy, while USC and Colorado did the same. Utah got the conference's best win of the week against BYU, and even that victory was pretty fortunate. Stanford and Oregon State may have fared the best of any Pac-12 teams by simply not playing.

Week Three, sadly, does not offer the conference much in terms of bolstering its sagging reputation. ASU plays at Texas-San Antonio on Friday and should win. Half of the other teams in the league play similarly hapless non-conference foes. UCLA is in for a battle at BYU, but by already losing at Texas A&M to start the season there's not much the Bruins can win back at this point.

Colorado will probably lose at Michigan, which is no big deal. The Buffaloes have already looked significantly improved in the early going and an expected defeat to a top-five team on the road won't hurt (granted, an upset would be HUGE). Cal hosts Texas and will also almost assuredly lose, but a decent showing from either the Buffaloes or Bears would be nice.

Oregon's trip to Nebraska won't help the league much, either. If the Ducks win, it's because they are the higher ranked, more prominent team nationally. If they lose, it's because Oregon is clearly on a slide to irrelevance again. There's nothing to be gained and everything to lose. UO has the clear advantage offensively, but the D is again the question. I don't know if the Ducks can come back if they get into, say, a 14-0 first-quarter deficit. Getting out in front early or keeping pace appears very important this week. We'll see what happens.

The significant prime time game is USC at Stanford, a series that, as I noted in my preseason preview, has been maddeningly difficult to predict. The inferior team has won multiple times in recent years, often hurting the conference. This year Stanford is in the top 10 and the likely best hope for the Pac-12 to make the Playoff (based on preseason ranking), so I'm fully prepared for SC to go up to The Farm and upset the Cardinal, devastating the remaining prestige of the league. Prove me wrong, Stanford. Win a big game you're supposed to, for once.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I've talked in the past about LSU's Les Miles and how I believe he isn't a good coach. Miles has won a National Championship, played for another and has the highest winning percentage among Tigers' coaches who have coached more than one season. He's also highly controversial at this point in his tenure, been accused of squandering LSU's elite recruits, and was very nearly fired in what amounted to a booster-led coup last season.

There comes a time with college head coaches when a change needs to be made, for the benefit of both the longtime coach and the program. We saw it at Georgia in 2015, when Mark Richt's "always pretty good but rarely great" era was mercifully ended. We saw it in 2014, when Mike Riley, tired of playing with a lesser deck at Oregon State, jumped ship for Nebraska. It happened with Lloyd Carr at Michigan, Phil Fulmer at Tennessee, and Mack Brown at Texas. All of those men won National Championships. It was simply time to part ways.

That's where I think LSU is with Miles. The accusations about the recruits are fair. The Tigers have recruited at an elite level for several years, and outside of a run to the BCS title game in 2011, they just haven't fully taken advantage of those talents. In 2013, LSU had future NFL receivers Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham, Jr., future NFL RB Jeremy Hill and a great college QB in Zach Menttenberger, yet finished in the middle of the pack (seventh) in the SEC in total offense.

I (and many other commentators) have noted over the past few seasons how strange it is that LSU can't seem to find even an average quarterback, something this team desperately needs (Mettenberger, the exception, transferred from Georgia). Leonard Fournette is the best back in the country, but seems doomed to play out his college career on a series of eight- and nine-win squads that fail to meet expectations. The Tigers have already gotten off to a 1-1 start in 2016 that included an upset loss to Wisconsin, still haven't found a competent passer, and still have zero chance of playing with Alabama. It's almost like I predicted this might happen.

It's time for a change. Miles has recruited well and usually fields good defenses, although it's worth noting that after losing longtime defensive coordinator John Chavis last season the Tigers fell all the way to 41st nationally in scoring D, the first time in seven years they finished outside the top 25. Miles isn't terrible, but he's inarguably a better recruiter than in-game coach, and it's starting to show. LSU should have parted ways with him last year to create a fresh start for the program. It didn't, and now has to deal with another squandered season.

2016 Stanzi Awards

In Week Two we were rewarded with another five individual awards, including a wild Double Stanzi in Hawai'i. The 2016 race is off to a wonderful start!

Week Two Awards

Deshaun Watson, Clemson
Opponent: Troy
Performance: Two INT, won by six

James Knapke, Bowling Green
Opponent: North Dakota
Performance: Two INT, won by one

Troy Williams, Utah
Opponent: BYU
Performance: Three INT, won by one

Brett Rypien, Boise State
Opponent: Washington State
Performance: Three INT, won by three

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i
Opponent: Tennessee-Martin
Performance: Three INT, won by five

Troy Cook, Tennessee-Martin
Opponent: Hawai'i
Performance: Two INT, lost by five

2016 Standings

Ikaika Woolsey, Hawai'i: 1
Troy Williams, Utah: 1
Brett Rypien, Boise State: 1
Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
James Knapke, Bowling Green: 1
Deshaun Watson, Clemson: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1


We've already got a new leader in the clubhouse after just one week! For tossing three picks and nearly losing to an FCS team, Hawai'i's Ikaika Woolsey takes the top spot! He'd better enjoy it, because it doesn't seem like the Rainbow Warriors are going to be winning much this year. Week Three promises even more entertainment as we move toward full-time conference play.

The Bruising of the Pac-12

National Overview

What a weekend it wasn't. The much-ballyhooed "Best Opening Week Ever" did very little to live up to the hype, producing a series of duds in the majority of the high-profile matchups. Alabama - USC was an abomination. LSU - Wisconsin was an offense-free slog. Even relatively close contests like UCLA - Texas A&M and Georgia - North Carolina were ugly to watch. The entire weekend was bailed out by the wild shootouts on Sunday and Monday night. Fortunately, the disappointing results did provide a lot of important insights.

To start with, Florida State's ability to rally in the manner the Seminoles did (with a true freshman quarterback, no less), should have the rest of the nation terrified. That FSU came back from a 22-point halftime deficit with such remarkable ease proves the impressive talent level this team has across the board. Clemson, who struggled to survive Auburn, should be very concerned.

Of course, the biggest winner of Week One was Houston, which did the improbable in decisively toppling Oklahoma to eliminate the largest obstacle on its schedule in the quest for a Playoff berth. OU's shameful performance in yet another big game certainly had something to do with it, but no matter; Houston is unquestionably on track for a stunning Playoff-busting run.

Three of the five Power conferences emerged from last weekend worse for wear, though. The ACC, despite North Carolina's loss to Georgia, remains in great shape with two teams in the top five of the polls. The Big Ten, led by Ohio State and Michigan, didn't play anyone and therefore managed to stay the course.

That wasn't the case for the SEC, Big 12 or Pac-12. The SEC is fine as long as Alabama continues to look like an unbeatable juggernaut, but the nation's toughest league otherwise took a big hit. Seven SEC teams lost their openers, lowlighted by LSU's flop against Wisconsin and Mississippi State falling to South Alabama. Without the Crimson Tide, this conference would be in trouble.

The Big 12 fared similarly, as Oklahoma ruined the league's best shot at the Playoff in Week One. Texas did notch a big upset of Notre Dame, but the Longhorns aren't likely to run the table or finish with one loss. TCU looked terrible for most of its shootout with South Dakota State, and the best win the conference got outside of Texas was West Virginia's victory over Missouri.

However, neither conference ended up looking as bad as the Pac-12, which may have seen its Playoff hopes evaporate before a single league game. UCLA and USC are perennially overhyped by the media, but they're important flagship teams that went down in ugly fashion to the SEC. Arizona lost to BYU. Washington State lost to an FCS foe for the second straight year. Even in victory, the league was disappointing. Stanford also struggled with Kansas State, while Oregon, Washington and Arizona State picked up less-than-meets-the-eye blowouts of bad competition. It was, all in all, a disaster. More on this in the Pac-12 Report.

Unfortunately, Week Two offers much less than the seemingly stacked opening weekend. Shamefully, there's not a single matchup of ranked teams, and very few ranked teams look to even get a real challenge. All of the best contests appear to be outside the Top 25, such as Penn State - Pittsburgh, BYU - Utah, and Texas Tech - Arizona State. Arkansas at TCU and Virginia Tech - Tennessee have potential, but that's about it.

Playoff Poll

It's obviously far too early for a real Playoff prediction, and I've made my feelings on preseason polls known. Still, the release of the first in-season polls always provides some interesting talking points. For example, why did Clemson retain its ranking after struggling to beat unranked Auburn? Shouldn't Florida State have leapfrogged the Tigers after defeating a ranked Ole Miss team? How is LSU still ranked after that atrocious performance? Considering that we don't know how good LSU and Notre Dame really are, why did Wisconsin and Texas jump all the way up to 10th and 11th, respectively? These inconsistencies are what makes the polls so frustrating.

Pac-12 Report

It really was that bad. No one really expected USC to beat Alabama, but it would have been nice to see the Trojans keep it close and respectable. The 52-6 beatdown was the opposite of that. Meanwhile, UCLA was reasonably favored versus Texas A&M, but once again proved unready for the national spotlight. Coupled with Arizona's close loss to BYU and Washington State's embarrassing loss to Eastern Washington, the Pac-12 already had a bad week before including the middling wins.

Oregon won going away against UC Davis, but led just 25-7 at the break after a very slow start. Arizona State blew out Northern Arizona, but only after holding a 10-3 lead at halftime. Washington crushed Rutgers on the scoreboard, but only had 76 more offensive yards (and most curiously, was outrushed by the Scarlet Knights, a near-impossibility in a blowout of that magnitude). Stanford did what Stanford does, racing out to a 17-3 on Kansas State before doing everything in its power to let the Wildcats steal the game.

In all honestly, the most promising outcomes of the week came from the presumed bottom of the conference. Oregon State came through with very respectable effort on the road at Minnesota, showing that perhaps the Beavers aren't as hopeless as some predicted, while Colorado announced another big step forward for the program by thrashing rival Colorado State 44-7. If the Buffaloes keep playing like that, the long bowl drought will end this season.

Overall, though, it was an awful weekend for the league. Unless one of the three North contenders run the table, a Playoff bid is all but lost. I don't think Stanford, Washington or Oregon is good enough to do that, particularly if the teams penciled in as easy wins (like OSU and Colorado) continue to improve. It's not a done deal, but the odds don't favor the Pac-12 making a real run at a National Championship this year.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The big topic on hand to start the 2016 season is the expansion of the Big 12. I have mixed feelings on further expansion in the Power Five, as there are already too many bad teams dragging down the bottom of the major conferences. With that said, it makes little sense to have four leagues with a championship game and one without, so the addition of two more schools to the Big 12 doesn't seem terrible. It sounds as if the conference has already whittled down the candidates from an initial list of 12, so I'm going off what is currently being reported.

East Carolina, which would have made a reasonable eastern partner for West Virginia, is out. The Big 12 surely wants to add such a school for the Mountaineers (as it would also assist in travel for other sports like basketball), but the quality options are scarce. Louisville, which would have made for a sensible choice, has already been snatched up, and likely won't leave the stability of the ACC. Cincinnati is a decent pick, as is Memphis, but neither is exactly a big name brand. BYU desperately wants into a major conference, but it remains to be seen if the Big 12 will A) expand in that direction and B) support a school with a life contract policy like BYU's.

The first, most obvious choice is Houston, which would join its old Southwest Conference peers in a heartbeat if given the opportunity. With tradition, strength in multiple sports and a football team more than capable of competing at the highest level, the Cougars would seem to be the simple answer. But therein lies the rub: the current Big 12 schools don't want Houston. Texas is a crowded-enough recruiting ground as it is, and Big 12 members don't want to have to compete with a program that could corner the market on that section of the state.

So politics, as they so often do, will play into the league's final expansion decision. If I were making the call, I'd say the Big 12 should bite the bullet and bring in Houston along with Cincinnati as an eastern bloc team with WVU. It's not a perfect solution, but it will at least allow the conference to host a title game again and (potentially) survive the third round of expansion.

2016 Stanzi Awards

My favorite creation of this blog, the Stanzi Awards honor the nation's worst QB performances in an attempt to crown the most reckless passer in the country by season's end. But in order to properly pay homage to the former Iowa signal-caller, a few rules must be followed:

1) QB's are the only eligible players
2) The QB must have multiple turnovers
3) The game must by close (within two possessions)
4) The QB's team must win the game

So let's get this glorious ball of ineptitude kicked off! Week One got things going beautifully, with a delightful pair of Double Stanzis to go along with the individual awards picked up this week. It was a perfect beginning to what will surely be yet another season full of crushing sack-fumbles and ill-timed pick-sixes.


Week One Awards

Riley Neal, Ball State
Opponent: Georgia State
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by 10

Tyler Jones, Texas State
Opponent: Ohio
Performance: Two INT, won by two in triple overtime

Austin Allen, Arkansas
Opponent: Louisiana Tech
Performance: Two INT, won by one

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Bart Houston, Wisconsin
Opponent: LSU
Performance: Two INT (one for TD), won by two

Brandon Harris, LSU
Opponent: Wisconsin
Performance: Two INT, lost by two

DOUBLE STANZI ALERT

Nick Mullins, Southern Miss
Opponent: Kentucky
Performance: Three INT, won by nine

Drew Barker, Kentucky
Opponent: Southern Miss
Performance: One INT, two FUM, lost by nine

2016 Standings

Nick Mullins, Southern Miss: 1
Bart Houston, Wisconsin: 1
Tyler Jones, Texas State: 1
Austin Allen, Arkansas: 1
Riley Neal, Ball State: 1


Week One was a little disappointing, but there are eleven more games to go! Here's hoping the rest of season will live up to college football's tremendously unpredictable, highly entertaining legacy.

The Great Pac-12 Preview

The National Championship conversation and conference races have been covered. The Pac-12 is all that’s left, and a lot needs to be addressed. I said previously that I don’t see the league getting a team into the Playoff; the more I look at the conference, the more convinced I am of that result. There are too many good teams, and none is elite enough to navigate the treacherous road unscathed.

There are six legitimate contenders for the Pac-12 crown, four of them in the stacked North Division. It’s easy to make a case for Stanford, Oregon, Washington and Washington State to win it. In the South, it’s UCLA and USC. Varying talent levels, the location of games, and the conference’s imbalanced cross-division scheduling will all have an impact on the race, as my breakdowns will demonstrate. This was by far the most difficult set of predictions I’ve ever made.

Every year I run through the schedule of each squad in the Pac-12 and mark down which games can be penciled in as probable wins and probable losses, creating a “floor to ceiling” range in which I expect the team’s record to fall (For the record, last season I predicted 10 of 12 teams correctly, only missing the Washington schools, which I underestimated by two wins apiece). This season I’m going further, with a rundown of each team’s schedule that explains how I foresee the year unfolding. The 2016 season is very hard to project. There’s a lot of room for madness in this conference.

North Division

California

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 4-8

Team analysis

Cal isn’t a lost cause this year the way it was a few years back. Losing the school’s all-time leading passer is going to hurt, but it’s not as if Jared Goff ever led this team to any big wins. In three years, the Golden Bears’ best victory with their departed quarterback was last season’s six-point win over Washington State, which carried no weight at the time because WSU had opened the year with an embarrassing loss to FCS foe Portland State.

The bigger problem is the team’s future outlook after the talent lost in 2015. Cal is 14-23 in the Sonny Dykes era, with a 7-20 Pac-12 record that includes zero wins over the Bears’ in-state rivals. Last season’s seven-win regular season was the program’s high-water mark since the start of this decade, and it might go down as the best result until the start of the NEXT decade if Cal doesn’t improve fast. Losing a good passer isn’t the end of the world, it’s the rest of the roster that needs addressing. Besides, Cal will be fine at QB this year.

Texas Tech graduate transfer Davis Webb will step in at QB in 2016, which should nullify any concerns about a rough transition. Webb played well in a similar offense, at a similar level of competition, during his time at Tech. He’ll do fine. The problem with the offense is everyone else who will touch the ball. The line should perform at about the same level as it did a year ago, which is to say, pretty good (Cal allowed just 27 sacks last season – not bad for team that throws at the volume of the Bear Raid). However, the Bears’ running backs – and rushing offense – are fairly pedestrian, and much more importantly, Cal loses its top six receivers from 2015. Leading returning WR Chad Hansen caught a mere 19 balls last year, a tiny figure for this offense. That puts a lot of pressure on Webb to come in and carry the entire offense.

Defensively, Cal finally improved enough in 2015 to win some games, though I have hard time seeing how a repeat performance is in order after the Bears lost five of their top six defensive players. To make matters worse, the sixth player – safety Damariay Drew – tore his ACL and is out for the year. In total, the Bears return five defensive starters, including just two in the back seven. Defensive end DeVante Wilson is pretty good, but he’s devoid of much quality help. It’s likely this team is headed for yet another year of shootouts.

Schedule breakdown

Cal opens with a game against Hawai’i in Sydney, Australia. The Bears should defeat the Rainbow Warriors, expected to be one of the worst teams in the Mountain West. After a week off, the team heads to San Diego State, the reigning MWC champ and one of the best mid-major squads in the country. It’s hard to see a win there, or the following week when the Bears get Texas in the home opener back in Berkley.

After a 1-2 start, an easy Pac-12 opener isn’t in store either, as Cal must travel to Arizona State. The next week is Utah at home. I expect Cal to open 0-2 in conference play before going to Oregon State and picking up its first league win. Unfortunately, even at 2-4, the worst of the schedule is still to come.

After another bye, Cal faces the Death Gauntlet of the six best teams in the conference, starting at home against Oregon. Six days later the Bears play at USC, then come home for Washington, travel to Washington State, and end the year at home against Stanford and UCLA. None of those games are winnable. That moves Cal to 2-10 on the year, 1-8 in the Pac-12.

Oregon

Floor: 7-5

Ceiling: 12-0

Team analysis

Oregon failed to win 10 games last season for the first time in eight years, collapsed in the second half of the Alamo Bowl, and looked lost without graduate transfer QB Vernon Adams. Adams is gone, the inconsistent offensive line doesn’t appear to be much improved, and the defense is a glaring question mark. The national opinion (and reasonable response) is that UO’s run is over. I don’t blame anyone for thinking that, nor do I blame the Ducks’ long-suffering rivals for celebrating.

But let’s not celebrate too soon. 2015 was viewed as a near-disaster for Oregon, yet the Ducks only got their starting QB two weeks before the season, fielded their worst defense in school history and blew two games in the regular season – Michigan State, Washington State – that kept them out of the Playoff. The Ducks dominated Washington, Stanford and USC, all of which have been picked to win the Pac-12 this season. This is still a very talented team that will compete for the conference title.

Offensively, UO will undoubtedly be more consistent with either graduate transfer Dakota Prukup or Travis Jonsen at the helm rather than the oft-injured Adams jumping in and out of the lineup. The Ducks’ passer-friendly scheme can somewhat alleviate concerns about the line, and the new signal-caller also gets another big advantage: He gets to play point man for the best collection of skill talent in the conference (and it isn’t remotely close). The Ducks lost receiver Bralon Addison but return every other skill player. The running back quartet, led by bellcow Royce Freeman, is among the top five groups in the country, while the receiving corps is second only to USC in the conference (and it might be deeper). Oregon also gets back two players who missed the 2015 season in All-Pac-12 tight end Pharoah Brown and receiver/Olympic hurdler Devon Allen (Allen actually caught nine passes in six games while returning from injury). This is a frightening group.

Defensively, Oregon changes from a 3-4 to a 4-3 with the arrival of new coordinator Brady Hoke. Hoke, who flamed out as the Michigan head coach due to his inability to build an offense, is nevertheless a tremendous defensive mind. His units at San Diego State and UM were outstanding and he should rapidly improve a defense that was awful a year ago but has a decent amount of talent. The Ducks simply won’t allow 37.5 points and 485 yards per game again, and while they won’t remind anyone of Alabama, they certainly have the ability to not flat-out lose games again this year. The key is the secondary, where UO needs big seasons from corners Arrion Springs and Tyree Robinson.

Schedule breakdown

The schedule is one of the reasons for optimism with this team. The Ducks get two warm-ups in the form of FCS foe UC Davis and Virginia, one of the worst Power Five teams in the nation. Then comes the first test, a trip to Nebraska. The Cornhuskers should be pretty good this year, but Oregon should be better, so a loss here would signal real trouble.

I’ll call for a 3-0 start, followed by a win in Eugene to open the Pac-12 season against Colorado. UO should be better than Washington State, but the game is in Pullman, and I see the Cougars winning. Back home against a Washington team I have undefeated at that point, I think the Ducks pull the upset to move to 5-1 going into their idle week.

A trip to Cal off a bye is no problem, and the following home game with ASU also looks like a win. From there it’s down to USC, and although Oregon has dominated the Trojans this decade I think the Ducks lose here. Once again, though, I have UO upsetting a division rival at home after a loss, this time against Stanford. After a tough win at Utah, the finale at Oregon State will be a formality, leaving the Ducks at 7-2 in conference, 10-2 on the year.

Oregon State

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 4-8

Team analysis

First, the good. Oregon State will be a better team in 2016 than it was in 2015. The Beavers have now had a full year to adapt to Gary Andersen’s scheme changes and will be more comfortable. They also return a good amount of contributors on both sides and can’t possibly be any worse offensively than they were a year ago, when they failed to have a 1,000-yard PASSER and completed just 47.1 percent of their throws.

Now, the bad. There’s still not an answer at QB. The O-line will be average again. OSU might score a full touchdown more per game this season and still be mediocre (that would move them up to a paltry 26 points per game). The schedule is also unforgiving, with likely losses to Minnesota and Boise State in the non-conference. Andersen has a good track record, but this is a tall order.

Ryan Nall is one of the bright spots for OSU at the skill positions, a 6’2”, 235-pound workhouse back who the team can build around. Along with 6’5” WR Jordan Villamin, he represents a potential physicality to the offense the Beavs have missed in recent years. Yet it’s actually 5’9” receiver Victor Bolden who defenses have to plan for; OSU will use the diminutive jitterbug on sweeps, screens and who knows what else to create open-field mismatches. Hunter Jarmon isn’t a bad receiver either. I don’t think Oregon State will be getting into a lot of shootouts, but there’s a decent blueprint here: pound it with Nall and the option QB’s, get the ball to Bolden whenever possible, and find Villamin and tight end Caleb Smith in the red zone.

The Beavers should be better defensively than offensively after giving up 37 points and 482 yards per game in 2015. The D-line is inexperienced but has some nice size. The linebackers will improve after last season’s debacle, as should the secondary. None of this means OSU is going to lead the conference in total defense, but an improvement should be noticeable. If the self-described “West Coast Linebacker U” can get good years from LB’s Caleb Saulo and Titus Failauga, OSU will be on the upswing.

Schedule breakdown

As I said before, the schedule is a problem. OSU probably won’t win at Minnesota in the opener. The team then gets a terribly-timed bye, in Week Two, before their only surefire win (Idaho State). Boise State isn’t going to go well the next week, which leaves the Beavers at 1-2 before opening league play.

To make matters worse, a winnable game against Colorado is on the road, followed by the home showdown with fellow North cellar-dweller Cal. OSU could win either, but for the purposes of my predictions I have them winning neither. Ditto for the home contest with Utah.

That puts the Beavs at 1-5, and the toughest stretch hasn’t even begun. OSU is not going to get a win in its next four games (Washington, WSU, Stanford and UCLA, with only WSU at home), nor is it likely to get one in the finale with rival Oregon. That leaves the penultimate game with Arizona (at home) to keep this team from going winless in the Pac-12 again. I don’t think it happens, and OSU finishes 1-11, 0-9 in conference.

Stanford

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Team analysis

Stanford has built its program up quite impressively, but it’s pretty difficult to see how it will top last year’s results. The Cardinal weren’t the best team in North last year, needing questionable calls and a missed field goal to get by Washington State and some atrocious officiating to even hang with Oregon’s offense. Yet the Cardinal knocked off the necessary opponents and won the Pac-12 and the Rose Bowl against a vastly outmanned Iowa squad.

The good fortune this team has manufactured in recent seasons was partially self-created, which isn’t surprising for a program that emphasizes line play, ball control and good fundamentals. At a certain point, though, the luck has to run out, and that’s what the Cardinal are looking at this year with the loss of mercurial QB Kevin Hogan, who was never exactly a star but had a knack for winning games even when he shouldn’t have.

Hogan had his ups and downs, but he certainly was present for a lot of victories. Stanford always leans on the run game anyway, and RB Christian McCaffrey is good, but the loss of three starting linemen and the QB seems to indicate an impending decline. The Cardinal also lose some pass-catching depth with the departure of TE Austin Hooper and WR Devon Cajuste, which could put even more of the offensive onus on McCaffrey. Quite frankly, I think the rest of the league will be more prepared for that this year.

The defensive outlook is rosier, even with the loss of three of the top four leading tacklers. The front seven is always the strength of Stanford’s D, and despite some inexperience, it should be again. However, the secondary should be pretty good as well, with safety Dallas Lloyd anchoring a unit that can improve on last season’s slightly disappointing finish. As long as the Cardinal focus on the run game and play their typical hard-nosed defense, they’ll still be in a good position to contend in the North.

Schedule breakdown

Stanford is one of the most frustrating teams to predict, given its propensity for non-conference flops and random Pac-12 meltdowns. The USC – Stanford series in particular has been impossible to figure for the past five years. Going from history and my instincts, this is how I see the season unfolding.

The Cardinal open at Kansas State, a potentially tricky matchup not unlike the Northwestern loss that (fortunately) marked the nadir of the 2015 season. I expect Stanford to take care of business this time, but the ensuing idle week won’t help in Week Three when USC comes to town and avenges last year’s loss. However, in true Stanford fashion, I think the Cardinal save their season on the road at UCLA the following week, stunning the favored Bruins.

It wouldn’t be a Stanford team without a little drama, though, so I think the Cardinal lose the next week at Washington, then come home to defeat Washington State before a mid-year trip to Notre Dame. I’m not sure why Stanford insists on playing the Fighting Irish, but I foresee another loss here to drop the team to 3-3 overall.

From there, the road gets easier, with winnable games against Colorado, at Arizona and back at home against Oregon State. Stanford should sit at 6-3 at this point and look like a North contender again; however, I think the dream ends with a loss in Eugene the next week before the Cardinal close out with wins at Cal and over Rice (Rice in the finale?!) at home. That rollercoaster ride produces an 8-4 record, with a 6-3 mark in Pac-12 play.

Washington

Floor: 7-5

Ceiling: 12-0

Team analysis

The Huskies are on the rise. Chris Peterson is the high-character, quality in-game coach this program has sorely needed for more than a decade, and he seems to have found his prototypical QB in Jake Browning. That spells trouble for the ruling class – Stanford, Oregon – of the North. UW has a nice group of returning starters, has recruited well, and looks poised for a breakout year. West coasters will roll their eyes at hearing that for the umpteenth time this decade, but I think this time it’s for real. The question is, how fast will Washington improve?

The offseason predictions have, at this point, gotten out of hand. There are analysts calling for Washington to win upwards of 10 games, win the Pac-12 and even make the Playoff. That’s a massive leap of faith and pretty unfair to expect from a team that was fortunate to qualify for a bowl last season (UW was 4-6 after 10 games). The Huskies have a relatively favorable schedule and the good fortune of improving at the same time Oregon and Stanford appear to be declining, but let’s see a division title before we get too excited.

The offensive line is respectable, which should help out Browning as he grows into the future of this team. Even with the return of speedster John Ross, the Huskies lost a lot of receiving production, so it’s good that Myles Gaskin emerged as one of the best freshman backs in the nation last year. Peterson is a good offensive architect and should be able to make this group better than the sum of its parts, although it’s unlikely to be elite.

Old reliable LB Travis Feeney has departed. Safety Brian Clay and DT Taniela Tupou are also gone, but otherwise the defense returns largely intact. That’s great news for the conference’s best unit in 2015. LB Azeem Victor is a freak, while do-everything safety Budda Baker leads a secondary could be among the nation’s best, though it’s worth noting that the Huskies gave up nearly 300 yards through the air last year to Stanford and Oregon, two teams not exactly known for their passing prowess. UW’s defense against the balance of its North rivals, which it must play back-to-back, could determine the outcome of the season.

Schedule breakdown

UW gets three easy home wins to start the season against Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State, and the conference opener at Arizona shouldn’t be too much trouble. After a 4-0 start, the national hype will reach a fever pitch when the Huskies host – and beat – defending champion Stanford at home to end September.

With pundits predicting a Playoff run, the trip to Oregon the next week will provide a dose of humility, as Washington falls to the Ducks for the 13^th straight year. After a week off, though, UW will get back to its winning ways, beating Oregon State at home as well as Utah and Cal on the road.

At 8-1, the Huskies will again have national hype on their side, but a home loss to USC will end any longshot hopes at a Playoff berth. UW will turn around to get a victory over Arizona State in the home finale, but with the division on the line in the Apple Cup, I predict the Cougars will get sweet revenge in Pullman for last year’s loss. However, at 6-3 in the Pac-12 and 9-3 overall, the season will be a resounding success that points toward a potential league title (and Playoff bid) in 2017.

Washington State

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Team analysis

Washington State took a major step forward in 2015, nearly winning the North after playing at the highest level of any team in the division for the majority of the year. The Cougs got a lucky overtime win against a backup QB at Oregon, yes, but it still took a fluke loss to Cal and a missed field goal against Stanford to prevent WSU from making its first trip to the Pac-12 title game.

The new season brings a new challenge, as conference foes will longer pencil in Wazzu for a win. Ask Oregon and Stanford what it’s like being the hunted. The Cougars don’t get to surprise people any more, and the decision to travel to Boise State in non-league play means WSU has to wake up and start playing in Week One this year. No more embarrassing opening losses to Rutgers or Portland State.

The Cougars enter 2016 with the luxury of boasting the conference’s most accomplished QB in Luke Falk, a remarkably accurate passer who could become the school’s all-time leading passer by the end of his junior season. Dom Williams is the only casualty from the Pac-12’s most prolific receiving corps, so Mike Leach’s guys should be ready to fly again. The backs aren’t exactly impressive, but they all return, and the O-line will should more or less match last year’s performance.

As important as the offense is in Pullman, the Cougs would have never won nine games in 2015 without the big improvement they saw in their defense. After spending several years at the bottom of the Power Five conferences, WSU allowed nearly 11 points per game fewer in 2015 than they did in 2014. The front seven stills needs work, but both the D-line and LB’s are much better than they were a few years ago. Moreover, the return of starting corners Marcellus Pippins and Darrien Molton, along with safety Shalom Luani, means the Cougars should again be strong defending the pass in this pass-happy league.

Schedule breakdown

After a season-opening win over Eastern Washington, WSU has to take on Boise State on the road. This is a dangerous opponent, but I do have the Cougs winning, followed by a victory over regional rival Idaho.

The bye then comes at a perfect time, giving the Cougs an extra week to prepare for their conference opener versus Oregon. I have WSU beating the Ducks, but losing on the road the next week at Stanford. The team gets no chance for rest with UCLA coming to Pullman, and I have the Cougs losing that contest as well. Facing three Pac-12 contenders in three weeks takes its toll, which costs Wazzu in a road loss to Arizona State.

A trip to Oregon State is exactly what the team needs, and the Cougars follow up that win with two more at home against Arizona and Cal. Colorado won’t be able to top WSU in Boulder, either. The Apple Cup will then hold huge implications. After a blowout loss in Seattle a year ago with Falk injured, the Cougs will strike back to beat the Huskies on the Palouse and finish 9-3, with a 6-3 conference record.

South Division

Arizona

Floor: 2-10

Ceiling: 7-5

Team analysis

The Wildcats never fully recovered from a turnover-filled beatdown at the hands of UCLA in their 2015 conference opener, a disastrous game that also saw QB Anu Solomon sustain the first of several injuries that would plague him throughout the season. The 2014 South champs followed the loss to Bruins with a much uglier one the next week at Stanford, getting off to an 0-2 start in Pac-12 action that hung over the rest of the season and resulted in a 3-6 conference record. ‘Zona went to a bowl only because it went undefeated in its weak non-league schedule and got a fluke upset of Utah in overtime.

Despite the inconsistent QB play, Arizona had a solid offensive performance in 2015. The offense returns enough to still be potent this year, while the defense – which slipped down to nearly 36 ppg allowed, the school’s worst ever – should be improved. But it’s the mental makeup of this team that worries me. What happened last season? Did players lose faith in the coaching staff, or Solomon? Will the signal-caller even win his own job back? 2016’s schedule is less forgiving and will test these questions right off the bat.

Offensively, the Wildcats should be safe. Losing three receivers with nearly 150 combined catches is tough, but Trey Griffey, Samajie Grant and Nate Phillips make up a more-than-respectable replacement trio. RB Nick Wilson should be healthier this year and is one of the better backs in the conference. The line is good enough to get things done and protect the QB, whoever he is. Solomon might win the job outright, or he might split time like he did last season, but in any case the run-heavy workload of Rich Rodriguez QB’s means the guy out there usually will be productive. We’ll just have to see if Solomon (or his successor) can succeed against the quality defenses.

On the other side, ‘Zona returns eight starters. The silver lining of Scooby Wright’s injury last season (which limited the All-American LB to just three games in 2015) was the experience the younger backups gleaned from being forced into action. The block-eating D-line in Rodriguez’s 3-3-5 scheme should be slightly improved, as should the linebacking corps, led by Paul Magloire and DeAndre’ Miller. It’s that unconventional stacked secondary that really makes the difference, though, and the Wildcats do get three of their five starters back, including both corners. This team shouldn’t give up as many points as it did last year.

Schedule breakdown

The Wildcats get no favors this season, opening with BYU in Glendale in a contest that has “reality check” written all over it. I expect the Cougars to beat Arizona before the Cats come home for a pair of wins over Grambling State and Hawai’i.

The Pac-12 opener is Washington, which doesn’t bode well. Just like last year, I see Arizona coming out with a clunker in conference play. Unfortunately, there’s no time to rest, with back-to-back trips to UCLA and Utah that also look like losses (although the Utah game is a toss-up). Heading back to Tucson, the Wildcats get more bad news in the form of USC.

That’s a nasty stretch to open league action. With the loss to BYU, I have ‘Zona at 2-5 in its bye week, 0-4 in the Pac-12. But wait, it gets worse! Stanford is the home game off the idle date (loss), followed by none other than a November trip to WSU. A late-season game in Pullman is usually death for the Arizona schools in the best of times, and the Cougars are a better team this year anyway. That drops the Wildcats to 0-6 in conference and out of the postseason.

From there, though, a glimmer of hope emerges. Colorado (at home) should be a win, as should the ensuing road trip to Oregon State. With nothing but pride on the line in the Territorial Cup, I have Arizona knocking off ASU to end the disappointing year at 3-6 in the Pac-12, 5-7 overall.

Arizona State

Floor: 2-10

Ceiling: 8-4

Team analysis

After a pair of 10-win seasons, Arizona State took a step back in 2015 with a .500 campaign and bowl loss to West Virginia. The Sun Devils got off to a rough start, losing to Texas A&M in the Texas Classic and USC in the Pac-12 opener and failing to put up much of a fight in either contest. ASU was stuck playing catch-up after starting the year on such a sour note, and both the offense and defense declined.

Part of the issue was turnovers; after posting a combined plus-29 in turnover margin the previous two seasons, the Sun Devils were a mere plus-two in 2015. D.J. Foster’s move to WR full-time also failed to have the impact ASU hoped for, while Mike Bercovici was solid but somewhat underwhelming in his only season as the unquestioned starting QB. ASU also lost a pair of shootouts with Oregon and Cal that might have made the season very different had the Sun Devils prevailed.

Things will be different in 2016, if only because of necessity. Bercovici is gone, along with four-fifths of the O-line, Foster, and leading receiver Devin Lucien (a graduate transfer from UCLA). That’s a lot to replace, but there’s also room for this group to grow. It’s no secret Todd Graham favors a mobile passer over a more traditional QB like Bercovici, and the young guns on the roster are more in that mold. The RB corps returns intact, with Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage leading the way to take pressure off the eventual starting signal-caller.

The defense should be able to hold its own, despite the loss of “Devilbacker” Antonio Longino and secondary stars Jordan Simone and Lloyd Carrington. The returning linebackers are talented and experienced, which should provide a boon in ASU’s blitz-heavy hybrid 4-3/3-4 scheme. I’d love to see the Sun Devils dial the aggressiveness back a notch this season, though. As last season showed, coaches in the Pac-12 have started to effectively game-plan against those all-out blitzes, to the extreme detriment of the ASU pass defense.

Schedule breakdown

ASU should get off on a much better foot this season, starting with wins over Northern Arizona and Texas Tech (somewhat dangerous) at home. A trip to UTEP in Week Three should also result in a victory. With a bottom-feeder in Cal to start the conference slate (rather than USC in 2015), the Sun Devils should enter October 4-0.

The next two weeks have the potential to be ugly, with a trip to USC and a home visit from UCLA that look for all the world to be losses. ASU should rebound with a win at Colorado, and in the high point of the season, return home to upset Washington State. After playing nine straight weeks to start the season, though, the team will fall on the road at Oregon.

The home finale is Utah, a tricky matchup that favors the Utes, but I’ll call for the Sun Devils to get the win. From there, it’s off to Washington and rival Arizona. The Huskies, still in the North title hunt, will make short work of ASU. Arizona is always a crapshoot, but in Tucson, the Wildcats prevail. ASU ends the year at 7-5, with a 4-5 mark in the Pac-12.

Colorado

Floor: 1-11

Ceiling: 5-7

Team analysis

The Buffaloes took another step forward last year, nearly eking out a bowl season with close losses to Arizona, Utah, USC and UCLA. The defense improved by more than 11 points per game, allowing an average of less than 30 points for the first time this decade. The offense dipped a little, but largely because of injuries. This should be the best squad CU has fielded since joining the Pac-12, with nine returning starters on both sides.

It’s been a long, hard journey back to relevancy, but the Buffs have managed it by slowly closing the gap in recruiting and subsequently, on the field. Gone are the days of those 40- and 50-point blowouts, replaced by respectable losses in which Colorado’s overconfident opponents are left happy to have survived. CU was only truly blown out of one game in 2015 (a 42-10 loss to Stanford) and should have beaten both the L.A. schools and probably Oregon.

A rebuilding program needs consistency on the O-line, and that’s what this team finally seems to have. Four of the starting linemen return, while the injuries of recent years allowed the Buffs to build depth and experience. Sefo Liufau is back for his senior season and should become Colorado’s all-time leading passer in the process. He’s no superstar, but Liufau has battled a lot of adversity during his career and is the right leader for this team. The receiving corps will miss Nelson Spruce, the Buffs’ best player. Mike MacIntyre has accumulated some improved WR talent of late, though, and the offense’s shift to a more up-tempo, pass-happy style should benefit players like Devin Ross and Shay Fields.

The defense just needs to stay healthy. CU has been decimated the past few years, losing entire units to injury (like in 2012, when walk-on receivers were called on to start in the secondary). The D-line will improve on last season’s performance, which chopped more than half a yard off the team’s average yards-per-carry allowed. So should the secondary, which returns all four starters, including CB Chidobe Awuzie, who led the team in tackles. The Buffaloes held four of their last six opponents (all Pac-12 teams) to fewer than 20 first downs, a promising trend that should continue into the start of 2016.

Schedule breakdown

I believe the Buffs will likely win more games than I predict here, but it’s impossible to know when the team will spring an upset. Officially, CU will get started with a win over rival Colorado State in Denver, then return home for a mop-up of Idaho State. A road victory over Michigan is too much to ask for, though, as is a win at Oregon to open conference play.

The Buffaloes should move to 3-2 with a win back home over Oregon State, but the next week’s trip to USC is a tall order. A loss there seems likely, and though I expect it will be a good game, I think CU will also lose the ensuing contest at home with Arizona State. Heading back out on the road again, the team will probably lose to Stanford to go to 3-5 on its bye.

Colorado will need a big finish to reach the postseason. Unfortunately, the visit from UCLA comes after the idle week. The final road game at Arizona the next week is a toss-up, but the Wildcats will prevail.

That leaves home dates with Washington State – a tough late-season, cross-divisional draw – and Utah. WSU should win handily. The Utah tilt is much more questionable, but in a season of near-misses, I have the Utes pulling it out. The 3-9 finish (1-8 Pac-12) won’t be indicative of how close CU gets to a bowl.

UCLA

Floor: 6-6

Ceiling: 12-0

Team analysis

UCLA has been a program of perpetual potential in the last decade, regularly receiving lofty preseason predictions from the local media and just as regularly proving those predictions delusional. It helps that the team has done its part for the Pac-12 in non-conference play, sweeping a home-and-home with Nebraska and beating Texas twice in three tries, but it’s time for the Bruins to show up when it matters.

This team’s record against the conference’s elite in the past five seasons is abysmal. 2015 was a perfect example, as UCLA got throttled by Stanford (again), lost to Washington State in the crucial home finale and was run off the field by USC with the South on the line. The loss of the majority of the offense doesn’t bode well either, but of course the Bruins have once again been picked as one of the South favorites.

Despite my obvious “Same old UCLA” cynicism, there are some promising signs this year that temper my doubts. First on the list is QB Josh Rosen, who succeeded last year as a true freshman despite the awful “Chosen Rosen” nickname bestowed upon him. He’s legit, a future star and probable pro QB. The downside is that he loses three of his top four receivers, along with leading RB Paul Perkins and three starting linemen. But there’s a hugely underrated change coming for UCLA’s offense this year, as the Bruins shift from Noel Mazzone’s spread to Kennedy Polomalu’s pro-style attack. I thought Mazzone was a bit of a hack (future hot take alert!), and the more traditional offense also fits Rosen much better.

Jim Mora has built up some nice talent on the defensive side. The loss of All-Pac-12 tackle Kenny Clark will hurt, but getting Eddie Vanderdoes back from injury should essentially nullify that problem. With the entire secondary returning (including CB Ishmael Adams, who makes a curious senior-year switch to WR but will surely still contribute), UCLA should be pretty good in all phases. The question is whether the team can stop its best foes in big games; the track record in recent years is not pretty.

Schedule breakdown

It would be a bit of an understatement to say I’m worried about the opener at Texas A&M. Rosen is good, but this is a brand new offense and there’s potential for this to get ugly. However, I think the Bruins should win thanks to their strong defense, which should know exactly what the Aggies are doing now that Mazzone is running the A&M offense.

The home opener against UNLV should be no problem, although at BYU in Week Three is another scary game. As with the A&M game, I have concerns, but I will pick UCLA to survive and move to an impressive 3-0 start. With a likely top-10 ranking and the team believing its press clippings, the Bruins will return home and get knocked off by nemesis Stanford.

The loss will galvanize the team in the following weeks, as UCLA picks up wins against Arizona and at Arizona State. In a big showdown in Pullman, I see the Bruins getting revenge on Wazzu for last season’s defeat before coming back to L.A. to beat Utah.

UCLA has struggled the past two meetings with Colorado, but coming off a bye will help the team move to 8-1 going into its final homestand. Oregon State will be a cakewalk, but USC will prove to be too much in the home finale, costing the Bruins the South. They will win at Cal the following week to finish 7-2 in the Pac-12 and 10-2 overall.

USC

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling: 12-0

Team analysis

Like UCLA, USC always seems to be “back,” yet the media predictions never seem to quite pan out. SC has been an organizational disaster the past few seasons, hiring not one but both of Norm Chow’s offensive co-coordinator successors in a desperate attempt to bring back the glory days of the Pete Carroll era. Lane Kiffin was an aloof man-child, Steve Sarkisian was a drunk, and both were mediocre. Turns out the Carroll era had more to do with Carroll (and Chow) than those guys! Who knew? To top it off, AD Pat Haden was run out of town after allegedly funneling money from his charity. Fight on, indeed.

Thankfully, those gentlemen are all gone, and the brand new head coach who can change the culture is… the interim one from last season, Clay Helton. The Trojans certainly don’t pay much attention to history, or apparently, the definition of insanity. Helton will probably do fine, but it remains jarring that was the best USC could do. After a 3-3 start last year (during which Sarkisian was fired), the Trojans ran off five wins in six games to clinch the South, which sounds great but glosses over the fact that SC got smoked by Oregon and Stanford (Pac-12 Championship) and lost the bowl to Wisconsin. Why should 2016 be better?

Well, the Trojans return 10 starters on offense, for one. QB Cody Kessler was good, but he’s certainly replaceable, and the outstanding offensive line will make things a lot easier for whoever ends up behind center. Justin Davis and Ronald Jones aren’t going to make anyone forget the hallowed Trojan backs of old, but they’ll get the job done (and have that great line to run behind). The WR group, led by veterans Juju Smith-Schuster, Darreus Rogers and Steven Mitchell, is tremendous. Along with starting CB Adoree’ Jackson, who moonlights at WR, they form probably the Pac-12 best receiving corps.

The defensive outlook isn’t as bright. Losing tackle Antwuan Woods and LB Su’a Cravens is big. The secondary, including Jackson, should be good, but SC has to replace virtually the entire front seven. This program recruits well, but it’s going to end up asking a lot from its young linemen and linebackers, which is a scary proposition in the wide-open Pac-12. Oh, and USC also plays possibly the nation’s toughest schedule.

Schedule breakdown

What was USC thinking? I don’t know. Guaranteeing five wins might even be a little high with this slate. The Trojans kick off with a near-certain loss to Alabama in Arlington, and after beating Utah State the next week they open conference play with another early showdown on the road at Stanford.

I have SC beating the Cardinal, but losing the following Friday in a quick turnaround at Utah. Undeterred by the .500 start, the Trojans will beat Arizona State and Colorado at home before heading back out on the road for a win at Arizona that sends the team into its idle week at 5-2.

Another home game with Cal will get the Trojans bowl-eligible with a brutal late-season stretch looming. USC will turn back Oregon in L.A. before heading out on the road for the final two conference games at Washington and UCLA. Despite the degree of difficulty, I think SC will shock everyone – myself included – by winning both contests to take the South. However, the home finale versus Notre Dame will be a loss. The Trojans end the year at 9-3 and 7-2 in Pac-12 play.

Utah

Floor: 5-7

Ceiling 12-0

Team analysis

It was oh-so-close to a dream season for Utah in 2015. The Utes beat Michigan at the Big House, knocked off rival Utah State, and stunned the nation by annihilating Oregon in Eugene to start league play. An 8-1 start had the team looking like sure division champs and a potential Playoff squad, but crushing losses to Arizona and Utah resulted in a 9-3 finish. The Utes got a very fortunate win over rival BYU in the bowl to reach 10 wins but very nearly played for a lot more.

It’s going to be hard to replicate that performance in 2016, in part because Utah can’t sneak up on anybody and in part because a lot of quality players have departed. Stalwart QB Travis Wilson, workhorse RB Devontae Booker and both leading receivers – Kenneth Scott and Britain Covey – are gone (although Covey will be back after his two-year mission). The front seven lost a lot of experience (and talent) as well. This looks like a transition year.

Offensively, the Utes get the benefit of four returning starters on the line. That’s important for any team, but especially so for a one like Utah built on running the ball and playing defense. The eventual starter at QB will have his work cut out for him otherwise, though. The losses in the receiving corps are heavy. Tight ends Harrison Handley and Siale Fakailoatonga do have some nice size, and the RB workload might be more spread out this season, but I still see a decline coming.

Gionni Paul was a monster at LB, and the holes left by Paul and fellow backer Jared Norris are substantial. The Utes will also miss DE Jason Fanaika and tackles Viliseni Fauonuku and Stevie Tu’ikolovatu, who helped Utah hold opponents to just 109 yards rushing per contest. Now, as stated previously, the D-line is a point of emphasis for this program in recruiting, so the Utes have some young guys who can competently fill those voids. It could just take time to get everyone working together smoothly. Fortunately, Utah does return a pair of standout senior CB’s in Dominque Hatfield and Reginald Porter, which should help to hold this thing together in the early going.

Schedule breakdown

The opener with Southern Utah is no threat, but the visit the following week from BYU will likely result in a loss. After a trip to San Jose State that should be a win, Utah opens conference play against USC. With the Trojans coming off a big win over Stanford, the Utes get the upset.

The 3-1 start gets better when Utah wins at Cal, then comes home for a win over Arizona (which upset the Utes in double OT a year ago). Playing at Oregon State won’t be too troubling, which gets the team off to a 6-1 record that recalls 2015’s great start.

As the slate gets tougher, though, the Utes will struggle to rise to the challenge. Utah loses on the road at UCLA, then again at home versus Washington before the bye week. Still, the week off doesn’t help in Tempe, where Utah gets knocked off by Arizona State.

Back in Salt Lake City for the home finale, the reeling Utes face a hungry Oregon team eager to erase the previous week’s loss to USC. The fourth straight loss sends Utah to 6-4 before a season-ending victory at Colorado that sees the team finish 5-4 in the Pac-12, 7-5 overall.

2016 Pac-12 Final Standings Prediction

North

Oregon: 10-2 overall, 7-2 Pac-12

Washington State: 9-3, 6-3

Washington: 9-3, 6-3

Stanford: 8-4, 6-3

California: 2-10, 1-8

Oregon State: 1-11, 0-9

South

USC: 9-3, 7-2

UCLA: 10-2, 7-2

Utah: 7-5, 5-4

Arizona State: 7-5, 4-5

Arizona: 5-7, 3-6

Colorado: 3-9, 1-8

Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon over USC. There’s no way USC gets the benefit of the doubt in a big game again until it actually wins one.

These are difficult predictions to make. I think any of the top four teams could win the North, and I’d take any of them over either USC or UCLA in the title game. I have a feeling the L.A. schools will both manage to choke and win at least one game less than I’m projecting here. Likewise, I think Oregon State, Colorado and Arizona will probably get an upset here or there I didn’t account for, but it’s impossible to know when those upsets will occur.

And that’s it! The Great Pac-12 Preview is over, the season begins in just over a week, and all that’s left to do is sit back and enjoy the wild ride that figures to be the 2016 college football season. Cal and Hawai’i kick us off from Sydney next Friday. See you there.