Onward to the Pac-12, the realm of football with
which I am most comfortable. I love the Pac-12, as I loved the Pac-10 before
it. The setup of geographically rivalled pairs is unequalled in the country,
the locales are beautiful, and the on-field product has improved dramatically
in the past five years. After years of Oregon and Stanford’s mighty rule, will
the league finally see a new champion in 2015? Read on to find out.
Although the Pac-12 hasn’t had a national champion since
2004, that matters less than once did now that we're in the playoff era. The conference has
respect now, as national analysts have said since last season that the Pac-12
and SEC are on essentially equal footing. The SEC’s top is still better, but
the Pac-12 has a stronger middle class, and with one more strong push (or
another slight slip from the SEC) the west coast’s only major league could
assume the title of Nation’s Toughest Conference.
As usual, I’ve mapped out the season for each team,
picking guaranteed (such as they exist) wins and losses to determine the
ceiling and floor for each school. The remainder of contests form the “swing
games,” in which a team will make or break its season. In 2013, every school
fell into my predicted ranges. Last year, I missed two: Utah and Cal both
finished one game ahead of my ceiling (5-7 for the Golden Bears, 8-4 for the Utes).
I widened my ranges this season to better account for the unpredictability of
the sport, but I have once again made concrete record predictions.
North Division
California
Floor: 3-9
Ceiling: 11-1
Swing games: at Texas, at Washington, Washington
State, at Utah, at UCLA, USC, at Oregon, at Stanford, Arizona State
Cal is a real enigma this year. The Golden Bears
have a lot of talent returning on offense and a lot of starters overall coming back (17 overall, nine on offense, eight on defense). Jared Goff is a good young
quarterback who already ranks third all-time on the Cal passing yards list. He
should blow away the career record this season in a triumphant follow-up to his
3,973-yard performance last year, which included a fantastic 37:5
touchdown-to-interception ratio. Joining him will be most of the offense from
2014 sans receiver Chris Harper, who should be easily replaceable in this system.
But oh, the defense. Cal fielded one of the worst
units in the nation during Sonny Dykes’ first season, and it didn’t get much
better last year. The Bears gave up nearly 40 points and more than 500 yards
per game, which simply isn’t going to get it done. It doesn’t matter if a team
returns a ton of starters if those starters aren’t good. I like this Cal team
and wanted them to reach the postseason last year (it just missed out with a 35-42
loss to BYU in the finale). The Bears should be able to do it this season, but
I can’t see much more than that unless the defense makes a drastic leap
forward.
Oregon
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: at Michigan State, Utah, at Arizona
State, California, at Stanford, USC
What to make of the Ducks? Well, even with the loss
of RB Thomas Tyner, Oregon returns an embarrassment of riches at the skill
positions. Bralon Addison’s comeback from knee surgery, an injury that may have
cost the Ducks a national championship, should ease the growing pains of new QB
Vernon Adams. After a year of tremendous turmoil on the offensive line, UO
should actually be better off. If Adams is the player for Oregon he was at
Eastern Washington, this team could be very, very good.
There are concerns, though. Enough talent was lost from
the defense that this isn’t exactly plug-and-play, which makes that Week Two
visit to East Lansing pretty iffy. Oregon tends to rotate a lot of guys
defensively, but how sharp will the team be on the road against a top-five opponent
after just one tune-up? The Pac-12 is also no cakewalk, and even though the
Ducks have only lost three conference games in four years there’s always a
chance this could be the season the train finally gets slowed. We’ll see.
Oregon State
Floor: 2-10
Ceiling: 6-6
Swing games: San Jose State, at Washington State,
Colorado, Washington
I don’t see much room for optimism in year one of
the Gary Andersen era. Mike Riley didn’t exactly leave the cupboard empty, but
transitioning coaches is always tough, especially when going from a pro-style offense
to a spread. To make matters worse, the Beavers will be splitting time at QB
between a redshirt freshman and a true freshman, which is almost never a recipe
for success.
There are pieces here and there. Victor Bolden could
be a nice playmaker in this system, as the speedy, undersized WR OSU has always
loved. The O-line is talented and should finally help the Beavs end their ugly
streak without a 1,000-yard rusher. But my goodness, this team is young. There
are so many underclassmen littered throughout the two-deep, and the schedule
does this squad no favors. How about a trip to the Big House in Week Two? Maybe
hosting Stanford in the Pac-12 opener (after Stanford plays USC, no less)? This
season could get grounded before it even begins.
Stanford
Floor: 4-8
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: at Northwestern, UCF, at USC, Arizona,
UCLA, Oregon, California, Notre Dame
Ah, Stanford. Bane of my attempt to make reasonable
predictions. Last year was finally the season when the Cardinal took a step
back. It’s a minor miracle it didn’t happen sooner, but somehow this team was
able to weather the complete lack of a competent passer for the better part of
three seasons before falling off. Kevin Hogan is back at QB yet again, and this
is his swan song. Can he improve enough to save this offense from itself? The
Cardinal will boast one of the nation’s best O-lines again, but the issue is the
skill players. Stanford doesn’t have the backs it did a few seasons ago, and
the receivers are decidedly average.
Generally this team leans on the defense to fix
things, but it’s pretty tough to see that being the case this season. Just four
starters return, including none along the front line. I doubt the Cardinal will
repeat as the country’s second-best scoring defense (just 16.4 points per game)
while moving on from those players. None of this is to say Stanford won’t be
good; I expect quite the opposite. But it’s possible we’ve seen this team’s
peak come and go.
Washington
Floor: 1-11
Ceiling: 5-7
Swing games: Utah State, California, at Oregon
State, Washington State
I have a bad feeling about the Huskies this season.
It seems like it’s going to take Chris Petersen a couple of years to sort
things out in the Pac-12, and in the meantime UW fans might want to shield their
eyes. There’s no QB. The top returning rusher gained less than 700 yards. The
WR corps is middling. The O-line just lost its best player, Dexter Charles, to retirement.
The defense returns one guy in the front seven, and Shaq Thompson bolted for
the NFL.
Is there reason for hope? Not that I can see. The schedule
doesn’t do the Huskies any favors, either, with inter-division road trips to
USC and ASU, home visits from the Pac-12 title game teams (Oregon and Arizona)
and an away contest on Boise State’s raucous Smurf Turf to start the year.
Yikes. The secondary is pretty talented, I suppose. That’s about all the nice
things I have to say.
Washington State
Floor: 2-10
Ceiling: 6-6
Swing games: at Rutgers, at California, Oregon
State, at Washington
Things need to turn around in a hurry for WSU, which
has gone a grand total of 12-25 under Mike Leach in three years. I like Leach a
lot, but he’s got to put together a defense capable of stringing together a few
stops. The Cougs are already replacing the program’s all-time leading passer in
Connor Halliday, so now’s as good a time as any to revamp what works and what
doesn’t in this system. First: establish the run as a legitimate threat. It
doesn’t matter how well you throw the ball. This team cannot continue to
average 40 yards a game on the ground as it has the past three seasons.
Defensively… I don’t know, try? This isn’t the
mid-2000’s Big 12. You can’t expect to outscore everyone. The Pac-12 is really,
really good; teams won’t let you do that. The Cougs have some playmakers on the outside (River Cracraft, Dom Williams), but it won’t matter if the team rushes
for a total of 478 yards again this season and the defense allows another 38
points per game. Step it up, Wazzu.
South
Arizona
Floor: 7-5
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: UCLA, at Stanford, at USC, Utah, at
Arizona State
The Wildcats get a pretty generous schedule in their
victory lap from 2014’s South title. I have them down for three wins without
breaking a sweat. UCLA and Stanford are the first two conference tilts, but
after that ‘Zona has a cakewalk all the way to the Nov. 7 showdown with USC.
The back-loaded schedule will probably allow this squad to build up a nice
ranking before the big boys show up.
Of course, it’s possible Arizona is one of the big
boys now. QB Anu Solomon and RB Nick Wilson are both back, along with most of
the talented receiving corps that got the ‘Cats all the way to the Pac-12 title
game. I think a slip is likely, given the losses in the secondary, but UA does
get back LB Scooby Wright. It will really all come down to the November games,
as road trips to USC and rival USC are sandwiched around a home date with Utah.
Arizona State
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: Texas A&M (in Arlington), USC, at
UCLA, at Utah, Oregon, Arizona, at California
I’m high on the Sun Devils right now. I think the
defense, which was surprising last year and returns nine starters, will be improved.
ASU should have been undefeated going into the finale with rival Arizona last
year, but a bizarre meltdown versus UCLA and a fluky loss at Oregon State
hampered this team. Now is the time for this program to finally show what it
can do on the big stage. The schedule starts with a bang against Texas A&M
in Arlington, but ASU has no more excuses left.
Mike Bercovici proved to be a quality passer during
his time in relief last season, so he’s really more like a returning starter.
The Sun Devils did lose a big-time WR in Jaelen Strong, but the rest of the
backs and receivers return. I expect the same kind of offensive production we’ve
come to expect from this team under Todd Graham, and if the defense makes any
kind of a leap, ASU could be in for a special year.
Colorado
Floor: 2-11
Ceiling: 6-7
The Buffaloes continue to play 13-game seasons,
which baffles me. You do know you have to win seven games to make a bowl that
way, right? No matter. CU won’t be returning to the postseason yet anyway. That’s
a shame, because the team has improved a fair amount from the nadir of 2012’s
1-11 campaign. The Buffs will almost certainly start 4-0, which is really going
to make things heartbreaking if they go 0-9 from there. Which is highly possible.
After opening with some traditional cupcakes,
Colorado gets Oregon, ASU and Arizona before its next reasonable shot at a win
(OSU, though the game is in Corvallis). Then it’s off to play UCLA, Stanford
and USC before the final chance for a win, at Wazzu. The Buffs will not beat
Utah in their finale. So let’s hope QB Sefo Liufau, who is pretty good, can
lead his squad to a couple of tough road victories in the Pac-12. He does get WR
Nelson Spruce back, which is huge, and the defense… can’t get any worse. So
there’s a glimmer of hope.
UCLA
Floor: 6-6
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: at Arizona, ASU, at Stanford,
California, at Utah, at USC
UCLA gets a ton of guys back, but the most important
one is a mystery. Josh Rosen, a true freshman, was named the Bruins’ starting
QB last week. It’s nice that so many people are throwing such high praise at
the kid, but let’s see him in action before anointing him. UCLA also has the same
issue a lot of teams with a great deal of returning starters seem to have:
their skill players don’t scare anyone. UCLA does miss Oregon, which will help.
Again, though, I’m not sure why people are
downplaying the losses this team suffered. Eric Kendricks was UCLA’s best
defensive player last season, better than LB mate Myles Jack, and it wasn’t
close. He’s gone, along with a highly talented DE in Owamagbe Odighizuwa. UCLA
can't simply throw anyone in there to replace those players, who were
all-conference talents. The Bruins will still be very good, but they’re not
winning the South.
USC
Floor: 4-8
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: Stanford, at ASU, at Notre Dame, Utah,
at California, Arizona, at Oregon, UCLA
I like USC a lot. Cody Kessler gives you pretty much
everything you could want in a college QB, the skill players are the typical
high school all-Americans, the line is big and nasty and the defense… is pretty
good. No offense to the wealth of talent on that side of the ball, but this IS
the unofficial college team of Hollywood. There’s enough here to win the
conference and challenge anyone in the country in the playoff.
However, there are hangups. Talented though the new
defensive starters might be, SC is going to have a little trouble
replacing DE Leonard Williams and LB Su’a
Cravens. The schedule is unforgiving, with an October trip to rival Notre Dame,
a late-season cross-divisional draw of Oregon (in Eugene, no less) and the
usual Stanford/UCLA matchups. Something has to give here, and I don’t see the
Trojans going undefeated.
Utah
Floor: 5-7
Ceiling: 12-0
Swing games: Michigan, at Oregon, California, ASU,
at USC, at Arizona, UCLA
Utah is in an interesting spot in 2015. The Utes basically
broke through last season, knocking off UCLA and USC and holding a lead on Oregon
before a disastrous turnover swung that game around. Yet the team still
finished 8-4 and just better than .500 in conference play, relegated to
also-ran status. It’s unfair, because Utah has improved tremendously since
joining the Pac-12, but it shows how much of a gap there is between the major
and mid-major leagues. The next step is to actually win the South, but
unfortunately the division seems to have collectively all gotten much better at
the same time.
The Utes still have QB Travis Wilson, who delivered
on his considerable promise in 2014 and will be one of the conference’s many
passers vying for honors this year. I like RB Devontae Booker, and Utah still
boasts one of the better collections of linemen in the conference. It’s just
hard to see where the extra wins will come from and how this team can make a
leap. There’s probably not enough on this roster yet to do that.
Those are my general feelings on each team. All that’s
left is my actual picks, which I present now:
2014 Pac-12 final standings prediction
North
Oregon: 11-1 overall, 8-1 Pac-12
Stanford: 9-3, 6-3
Cal: 6-6, 3-6
Washington State: 5-7, 3-6
Oregon State: 4-8, 2-7
Washington: 2-10, 0-9
South
USC: 11-1, 8-1
Arizona State: 11-1, 8-1
UCLA: 10-2, 7-2
Utah: 8-4, 5-4
Arizona: 7-5, 4-5
Colorado: 4-9, 0-9
Pac-12 Championship Game: Oregon over USC
All that’s left is to play. See you on Saturday.
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