Into the fire

The nature of the beast, eh? College football is an unforgiving sport, something that was never more apparent than last week. It’s marvelous to see the game continue to surprise year after year. Just when you think you’ve got everything figured out, the landscape gets turned on its head again. For example, this week: Oregon was the fraud? Baylor is for real? Texas Tech isn’t top-25 material? Crazy. That’s what makes college football great.

Stanford dominating Oregon for more than three quarters was the main story of the week. The Cardinal held the ball for 42 minutes and pounced on a multitude of UO miscues to lead 26-0 midway through the fourth, when they very nearly gave away the game in stunning fashion. Baylor’s victory over Oklahoma was also huge. After a slow start, the Bears dominated the Sooners, who reverted to their bumbling Red River Rivalry ways and were knocked out of the Big 12 race.

Of course, no weekend without a series of shakeups would be complete without Alabama looking immune to such mortal concerns. Despite getting outplayed by LSU in the first half, the Crimson Tide raced to a big win in their final legitimate challenge of the regular season. Auburn is left on the schedule, but I don’t think the Tigers are balanced enough offensively to be a real threat. With Florida State also on cruise control, a Tide – Seminoles matchup in the title game seems imminent.

Still, as last week showed, you can never take anything for granted. Ohio State still lurks in the background for any kind of slip-up (though the Buckeyes may have their hands full with Michigan State in the near future). Injuries and misfortune can strike at any moment, which is what makes an undefeated season so difficult and ‘Bama’s current run so impressive. There’s still nearly a month to go! Who knows what might happen between now and the conference championships?

Top 25

1) Florida State

Impressed though I was with Alabama’s win, I still find FSU’s resume more impressive. LSU already had two losses and isn’t a better victory than Clemson. Virginia Tech’s continuing schizophrenic act doesn’t help the Tide, either. The rankings will change if both teams stay undefeated through the end of the season, but for now the ‘Noles have looked more impressive than anyone. Speaking of which, remember when Wake Forest beat FSU 30-0? I think Florida State did, beating up on the Demon Deacons 59-3 on Saturday.

2) Alabama

The Crimson Tide had skated by on a largely average schedule until last week. It’s hard to say what the Texas A&M win really means other than the fact that it came in a tough environment and as I said before, Virginia Tech is questionable. LSU is the most complete team the Tide have faced this year and ‘Bama went right through the Tigers in the second half. The SEC can be nasty, but it certainly appears this team is headed for 12-0. With Mizzou (or South Carolina) on deck for the SEC Championship, the road ahead is fairly clean.

3) Ohio State

Illinois can’t score, Indiana can’t defend and Michigan can’t do either. On a bad day. On a good day, though, the Wolverines could theoretically give the Buckeyes a lot of trouble. Assuming OSU gets to 11-0 without incident, the rivalry game might actually end up being closer than people think. Michigan has a very good, if sloppy, offense and could turn the contest into a shootout in Ann Arbor. However, the Buckeyes will be favored for good reason and will likely finish the regular season undefeated.

4) Stanford

It was hard to put Stanford ahead of an undefeated team from another power conference. What gives the Cardinal the edge is the fact that Baylor has played only eight games, as well as the value of Stanford’s win over Oregon. Despite underachieving for much of the season, this squad is poised to repeat as North and Pac-12 champions… provided they get past USC this week. That isn’t a foregone conclusion by any means. The wins are there for the taking, though.

5) Baylor

Well, a minor mea culpa is in order. I haven’t been particularly demonstrative about it, but I was certainly less than bullish about Baylor’s chances of keeping the wins coming against the meat of the Big 12. That task became a lot easier when the Bears disposed of Oklahoma Thursday night. As I said last week, the Sooners were probably the most talented team in the conference, if not the best. That might still be Oklahoma State, but as the league’s last unbeaten Baylor deserves the credit right now.

6) Oregon

Oof. The Ducks took the worst parts of their upset loss to Stanford in 2012 and multiplied them tenfold for Thursday’s game. The ill-timed turnovers, the inability to get Stanford’s ground-and-pound attack off the field, the missed scoring opportunities… all were on full display in Palo Alto. Oregon has nobody to blame but themselves, as the Cardinal simply out-willed UO for most of the game. A BCS bowl and Pac-12 title are still in the mix, but the Ducks’ fate is no longer in their hands.

7) Clemson

The Tigers are officially out of the ACC race, though it was obvious that was inevitable ever since the FSU massacre. This team is still fighting for a BCS bid, though, and can also have an impact on who meets the Seminoles in the title game. Will it really matter? After the Seminoles’ near-disaster last year against Georgia Tech, maybe. Guess who Clemson gets this week? The Yellow Jackets! My Ramblin’ Wreck are gunning for FSU again, no doubt. A Clemson win would send Virginia Tech to face the ‘Noles.

8) Missouri

Mizzou continues to impress, this week beating up on hapless Kentucky (a litmus test of sorts for quality SEC teams) to move one step closer to a stunning SEC Championship appearance. The season-ending meeting with Texas A&M remains the big question mark. Will Missouri’s D win the day and force the Aggies into a lower-scoring contest, or will A&M’s offense make it a shootout? The Tigers would prefer the former, but are capable of winning either way thanks to the emergence of quarterback Maty Mauk.

9) Auburn

The Tigers’ dominant rushing attack has boosted them to a 9-1 record. Now, a nasty final two: Georgia and Alabama. While the Bulldogs aren’t what they once were, they’re still dangerous. Then, of course, there’s ‘Bama. It’s entirely reasonable to believe this team could be 10-1 before the Iron Bowl, but even with two weeks off (seriously?) it’s hard to see Auburn winning the West. QB Nick Marshall has been a revelation in the option game but his passing credentials are rather spotty.

10) Oklahoma State

OSU has won five straight since the debacle in Morgantown and controls its own destiny in the Big 12 race. Next up is conference leader Texas, the final road game before home showdowns with Baylor and Oklahoma. The Longhorns are 7-2 but haven’t really beaten any great teams, so calling for a Cowboys win doesn’t seem too outlandish. Clint Chelf seems to have finally stabilized the QB position, which means this squad might be rounding into form right at the right time.

11) South Carolina

Florida looks done. The Gamecocks got a week off and can still win the East with a little help, so they should hardly be lacking in motivation. No matter who plays QB for Carolina I feel confident going forward with this team. The finale with Clemson is going to be a lot of fun and, like seemingly half the SEC, a BCS bid is still in play. Despite Carolina’s struggles this year, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see the Gamecocks at 10-2 when the smoke clears. Could it be enough for a BCS bowl?

12) Michigan State

This is it for the Spartans. Beat Nebraska and the Spartans are essentially assured of a date with Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. I think MSU gets it done. Even in Lincoln, the Cornhuskers have just been too uneven this year. I doubt anyone left on the schedule can seriously challenge this absurdly great defense, though OSU would likely prove a more interesting test. For the sake of that great matchup, everyone should be rooting for the Spartans this week.

13) UCF

Whew. Central Florida looked to have Houston on the ropes but could only watch in horror as the Cougars fought back and nearly took the lead in the final seconds. The Knights survived and advanced and now get a delightful final month to close out a BCS bid. None of UCF’s final four opponents have a winning record in AAC play and only Rutgers has a winning record overall. I think it’s safe to call it: UCF is winning the American. How about a rematch with South Carolina? I’d watch that game.

14) Louisville

It’s nice that Louisville still has so much confidence, but there’s not much the Cardinals can do to sway voters’ minds at this point. The ‘Ville doesn’t control its own destiny and doesn’t deserve a BCS berth with the schedule it has played. That’s tough to swallow because this is more or less an elite team. Still, the Cardinals knew what the deal was when they signed up for the American – win and you’re in – and they failed. The AAC is far too weak to allow an at-large bid.

15) Texas A&M

The Aggies get a week off before facing LSU and Missouri to end the season. A lot could change between now and then. A 10-win A&M team would likely draw BCS attention, while an 8-4 record would relegate the Aggies to a minor bowl. The SEC has reaped the benefit of aTm’s explosive offense but somehow been immune to criticism of the porous D. It’s that side of the ball that will cause this team to be the underdog in both of its remaining games. Giving up 30-plus a game will do that.

16) UCLA

UCLA was probably never that good to begin with and injuries have started to take their toll. Of course, when you can insert Myles Jack into the power-back position and have the linebacker rush for 20 yards a carry, you don’t need running backs. The Bruins held off a spirited effort from Arizona this week to notch a key road win, but they’ll need to be better to have a chance at winning the South. The remaining schedule – Washington, ASU, at USC – is brutal. UCLA has to win all three.

17) Wisconsin

Not a bad win at all over BYU. The Cougars are likely the best independent out there in 2013 and Wisconsin controlled the game from start to finish. Badgers fans are understandably upset about the implications the ASU loss might have on their postseason fate, though there’s little sense worrying about that until the regular season ends. I have faith this team will be rewarded for a quality year, provided the voters recognize what was essentially a single-loss campaign.

18) LSU

What might have been? Had the Tigers not lost the ball twice in the early going and been able to build a double-digit lead, things might have gone differently in Tuscaloosa. Alas, it wasn’t to be and LSU simply became another speed bump for Alabama’s rampaging machine. This team is now in unfamiliar territory, with three losses on the register and two games left to play. It’s a good thing Arkansas fell apart this year, or the Tigers could have gone the way of Florida.

19) Oklahoma

Now I remember why I resolved never to trust Oklahoma again: the performances in big games! Despite a considerable size advantage in the trenches, OU was pushed around by Baylor, continuing a disturbing trend in the latter part of the Stoops era. The Sooners will have now gone a full two seasons without a Big 12 title, the longest stretch since changing coaches at the end of the millennium. Does it feel like this program is on the decline? Unfortunately, yes.

20) Arizona State

I think Arizona State is probably better than a few of the teams I have above it (like Pac-12 South peer UCLA), but I’m not quite willing to offer up superior pole position considering that the Sun Devils should have lost in Salt Lake City. True, Utah is better at home (not unlike ASU). Still, you can expect more from a team that’s playing for a conference championship. ASU has the talent to win the division and the easier schedule than UCLA. This squad just needs to learn to finish.

21) USC

I wouldn’t have moved the Trojans this high without good reason. After all, they do have three losses. However, the change in performance over the last month and a half has been remarkable (it turns out Lane Kiffin wasn’t getting the most out of his players!) and this team is dangerous right now. SC has won four of five since the ASU meltdown, with the only loss a sloppy game the team gave away at Notre Dame. A South title is unlikely, but a second-place finish is attainable.

22) Fresno State

I’m glad I changed my tune about the pitfall potential of the Wyoming game a few weeks back, although the Cowboys did that for me with a couple of awful performances leading up to last week’s blowout. Fresno was actually challenged early in Laramie, but the Bulldogs’ offense proved to be far too much to handle. Also impressive: since the 37-point showing against winless Hawai’i (a performance for which I called out the defense), Fresno is giving up less than 18 points per game over the last five.

23) Northern Illinois

It’s finally here! The long-awaited showdown between MAC West teams Ball State and NIU has arrived and both teams did their part by going undefeated in league play to this point. The Wednesday matchup (mark your calendars) features a pair of top-level mid-major offenses, though the Huskies favor the ground game while the Cardinals go to the air. NIU will likely go 12-0 into the MAC Championship with a win, so this game has BCS implications as well. Should be a barnburner.

24) Miami (FL)

I’ll be honest. Without RB Duke Johnson, this team might not deserve to be ranked. The Virginia Tech loss was painful, because we know the Hurricanes have been better than the Hokies this season. Without their star, though, it was inevitable that the offense would regress. I predicted as much last week. With two losses the ‘Canes are technically still in the ACC race, but because the schedule was backlogged the team also only has three league wins. It would take a minor miracle Miami to bounce back from this.

25) Ole Miss

Ole Miss got the last spot almost by default. The other candidates (Texas, BYU, Virginia Tech) have all suffered embarrassing losses at some point, something the Rebels have managed to avoid. In fact, you could argue this team should be 8-1 with wins over Auburn and Texas A&M. As it stands, Ole Miss actually did beat both Texas and LSU, which counts for something. In a lesser conference, this young and talented team might have actually made some real noise this year.

Pac-12 Report

The elephant in the room is Oregon – Stanford, so let’s get that one out of the way. Stanford made the Ducks look terrible for three-plus quarters, shutting down the run game for the second straight year and embarrassing Oregon at the point of attack. It mattered little that the Cardinal couldn’t throw. They were content to merrily run power-left, power-right, for four yards a pop. It worked better than even Stanford expected. Oregon had no ability to get its defense off the field and was sloppy with the ball on its few possessions.

The question being asked this week is whether Oregon can ever win a national championship with its current style. The answer is yes and no. In its simplest form, it’s a very stupid question. UO went to the BCS title game not three years ago and lost by a field goal. It can be done. However, the team’s struggles with power-run offenses do highlight the weaknesses of Oregon’s scheme. The Ducks have gotten bigger up front but will need to continue to recruit top-level linemen to take that final step.

It’s also important to note that Stanford’s approach isn’t the end-all, either. Stanford is not winning a national championship any sooner than Oregon because the Cardinal are also flawed. Against a program capable of matching their big bodies (like Alabama or Florida State), the Cardinal’s one-dimensional offense gets exposed. Stanford has been specifically built to stop Oregon, which makes sense given how the Ducks dominated the conference. However, it’s not the same as creating a true championship-caliber team.

The same thing happened to West Virginia in the waning years of the Big East: after years of dominance, schools tweaked their defenses to beat the Mountaineers. Those schools weren’t making BCS games, but they had a chance to beat the conference’s alpha team. Stanford’s approach is a similar return to the sectionalism that built college football and had been somewhat destroyed by the BCS system. Now it’s the rest of the Pac-12’s turn to adjust to Stanford.

In California news, the Golden Bears were slaughtered again, this time at home by USC. This wouldn’t be noteworthy other than the fact that it demonstrates just how good the Trojans are looking since the Kiffin firing. SC is on a major tear and it wouldn’t be shocking to see them win out, even with their schedule. More on that later, but for now, focus on Cal and Colorado. This week! Folsom Field! Two winless squads duke it out for… whatever the exact opposite of supremacy is. Inferiority? Humiliating supplication? The Buffaloes, by the way, lost 59-7 to Washington, which is included in this paragraph so I don’t have to waste any more time on it.

Arizona State got mighty fortunate to escape Utah with a win. The Utes are much more formidable at home, so it’s not surprising they played well, but after the way the Sun Devils seemed to shake their road curse at WSU the previous week the outcome was eyebrow-raising. In the end, ASU notched a W it probably shouldn’t have and kept alive its chances of playing for the Pac-12 title. Oregon State this week is the final North opponent on the schedule, so if this group can take care of business at home they’ll be fighting UCLA for the South title in Pasadena next week.

The Bruins also managed a difficult road win, though in different circumstances. With apologies to the MUSS (Mighty Utah Student Section, or so they call themselves), ‘Zona is a tougher place to play and a nastier environment. The Wildcats went toe-to-toe with UCLA, but were undone by… running back Myles Jack? The Bruins’ freshman LB turned in one of the great two-way performances the nation has seen in the past several years, rushing for 120 yards and the clinching touchdown on just six carries while also recording eight tackles AND a fumble recovery in the end zone. Poor Arizona. There’s no defense against a performance like that.

This week: the conference is chock-full of good material. Friday night Washington travels to UCLA for a very important game for both teams. The Huskies need a win to prove their seven-win days are done, while the Bruins have to stay on pace with ASU in the South. What will give? UCLA has been the higher-touted team this season, but I’m not sure there’s really that much different about the two squads. Both lost to Oregon and Stanford and only Washington made those games truly close. The small difference in records is UW’s loss to ASU, a team the Bruins haven’t played yet. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Huskies win this game.

Wazzu at Arizona promises to be an interesting and probably high-scoring matchup. The wheels have somewhat come off the proverbial WSU bandwagon – if only they’d won the Auburn game! – and the Cougars need this game badly to get to bowl eligibility. Arizona and Utah are inferior to the Washington team WSU will see in the Apple Cup finale and you don’t want to go into the last game needing a win for a bowl. ‘Zona got to six wins early by beating up patsies but has actually looked better in the last month, even in defeat. I doubt the Cougs will be able to handle the Wildcats’ ground game, but there’s a chance the Air Raid could give Arizona fits too. Should be fun.

Oregon is unlikely to have any problems with Utah. The Utes did beat Stanford, but they’re a much better home team and have regressed since that performance. UO is coming off a loss, is at home and is of course vastly superior. Utah has neither the defensive depth to contain the Ducks nor the offensive firepower to go tit-for-tat in Autzen. QB Travis Wilson, finger injury be damned, probably shouldn’t be starting any more. Barring a complete meltdown, Oregon should win handily.

How about Cal at Colorado? The winless Pac-12 teams square off in the Ultimate Shame Bowl, and I have to say, I’m leaning Colorado’s way. The Buffaloes have at least shown some fight in conference play this season. Cal came close two weeks ago against Arizona, but got blown out this week by USC. Then again, CU lost big to Washington this week as well, so perhaps I should give the Bears more credit… In any case, this will probably be a pretty watchable game, given that these are by far the two worst teams in the conference.

Stanford and USC has potential to be exciting. On depth alone, the Cardinal are stronger than the Trojans, but SC has shown it’s not a good idea to count them out of anything. In fact, there are a lot of factors that favor USC this week. The game is in L.A., the Trojans will be out for revenge after Stanford started their slide to 7-6 last year and SC has been playing great lately. What’s more, USC is one of the teams that can actually match Stanford in the power department. Stanford should be favored, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this matchup go down to the wire or in the Trojans’ favor.

Finally, there’s Oregon State and Arizona State in the desert. Tempe has been a nest of nightmares for OSU teams in the past and the Sun Devils will be favorites in this game for a reason. It’s hard to imagine the Beavers defense, with its struggles against spread offenses, being able to hold down ASU. However, I’m not sure how good the Sun Devils’ D is. One thing’s for sure: OSU can score. I expect Mannion and Cooks, Inc. to have a productive day. ASU is much too good to go against at home, but we’ve seen in the past they’re also liable to lapses of focus.

Heisman Watch

With Oregon’s loss Jameis Winston moves up to the favorite spot. Marcus Mariota is second, followed by no one deserving. I have no idea what the Johnny Manziel hype is about. The dude threw three picks against Mississippi State. Five TD’s, three INT’s versus a bad team isn’t a good game. It would be one thing if Manziel was re-creating his 2012 effort on the ground, but he’s not even close to those numbers. Winston is the front-runner because he’s had the biggest impact on college football this season; because of him, FSU is destined for a spot in the BCS Championship.

Random Thoughts and Observations

This is the final week for the one-time Stanzi offenders. Johnny Manziel made his move, jumping into the multiple category just in time for the cutoff. Will another player match him this week? Can any of the leaders grab the elusive third award, a boost that might put them over the top? Watch and find out.

Casey Pachall, TCU

Opponent: Iowa State

Performance: Two INT (one on goal line), led game-winning TD drive

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M

Opponent: Mississippi State

Performance: Three INT (two on goal line), ran out clock to preserve win

Blake Bortles, UCF

Opponent: Houston

Performance: One INT (on goal line), one FUM, led game-clinching TD drive

2013 Stanzi Awards

Devin Gardner, Michigan: 2

Keith Wenning, Ball State: 2

Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M: 2

Anthony Boone, Duke: 1

Stephen Morris, Miami (FL): 1

Taysom Hill, BYU: 1

Connor Wood, Colorado: 1

Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech: 1

Braxton Miller, Ohio State: 1

Corey Robinson, Troy: 1

Christian Hackenberg, Penn State: 1

Jake Heaps, Kansas: 1

Gary Nova, Rutgers: 1

Trevone Boykin, TCU: 1

Casey Pachall, TCU: 1

Brett Hundley, UCLA: 1

Devin Powell, Tulane: 1

Connor Halliday, WSU: 1

Tommy Rees, Notre Dame: 1

Blake Bortles, UCF: 1

A.J. Doyle, Massachusetts: 1

Justin Worley, Tennessee: 1

Taylor Heinicke, Old Dominion: 1

Terrel Hunt, Syracuse: 1

The time has come for season-ending hypotheticals to start getting thrown around. For example, what if Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Baylor all go undefeated? Alabama and FSU should, and will, play in the BCS Championship. The SEC remains the strongest conference, which automatically makes ‘Bama a lock. FSU has a slightly weaker case, but both the Big Ten and Big 12 have declined this season in relation to the ACC. That alone would get the Seminoles into the title game, though they’ve also looked much more impressive than either of the other two contenders.

In the unlikely event that one of the top two falls, Ohio State should be the next team up. No disrespect to Baylor (who will eventually leap Stanford by winning out), but pedigree does count for something. Despite the perception that the Buckeyes haven’t faced many quality opponents, voters still value things like recruiting (where OSU has a huge edge) and history. That’s not exactly fair or relevant to this particular season, but that’s how college football has always functioned. However, both Ohio State and Baylor have yet to face their hardest tests (Michigan State and Oklahoma State, respectively), so this conversation may not end up mattering very much.

With a stunning home blowout loss to Vanderbilt, Florida is poised for its first losing season in more than 30 years. I expected the Gators would struggle offensively and decline defensively after 2012’s impressive showing, but this has been ugly. Injuries are a big problem – no one can thrive with as many as Florida has seen this season – but remember, this is a top-10 program. How is it that UF doesn’t have the athletes to compete? A better explanation is probably luck: the Gators were exceptionally lucky last year, getting a myriad of breaks to win 11 games. This season the pendulum has swung back the opposite direction and the team is getting blasted. Needing two wins from the troika of South Carolina, Georgia Southern (dear God) and Florida State doesn’t bode well. However, it does make Florida a prime “rebound” candidate for 2014.

Along with Florida, there is a handful of other schools in danger of missing out on the postseason after promising starts. Chief among them are Maryland and Northwestern, who have gone a combined 1-9 in conference play after both opening 4-0 against a crew of patsies. The Terrapins’ decline is more forgivable, as the Terps lost their starting QB for a chunk of time. Northwestern’s fall was one of the more obvious things coming this season. In a year of poll craziness, I’m glad I can say I pegged the Wildcats as frauds from the start. Washington State and Utah, who both started 4-2, are also in danger of missing out on bowls with 4-5 records. The Pac-12 schools still have a shot and play in Pullman in two weeks, a game that might decide which one nabs a postseason bid. Wazzu’s schedule is tougher overall, with games against Washington and Arizona, but while the Utes get a potential freebie in Colorado they also face Oregon. Hopefully, one of the teams will manage to get to six wins.

On the flip side of the bowl equation is the teams coming on strong to end the year. Who would have thought Kansas State, who started 2-4, would be in contention for a bowl? The Wildcats have won three straight and only need to beat TCU or Kansas to get to eligibility. Boston College was 3-4 and now only needs one win in its final three to make a bowl. Vanderbilt started 1-2 and has never been more than one game over .500, but after upsets of Georgia and Florida the Commodores need just one win against the likes of Kentucky, Tennessee and Wake Forest to get to six. They might win all three! Side note: this is also how Vandy won nine games last year. Don’t get blinded by the hype, this still isn’t a great team. Still, finishing the season on a hot streak is laudable. It’s better than what the teams in the previous paragraph are doing.

Next week: most of the big questions have been answered. There’s still a lot of good football being played, be it midweek MACtion (I don’t know who coined that word, but I’ve been using it for a long time) with Ball State at NIU, a Thursday rematch of the 2009 ACC title game in Georgia Tech – Clemson, or a key Friday contest in the Pac-12 (Washington at UCLA). That’s before we even get to the weekend, when fun matchups abound: Washington State – Arizona; Georgia – Auburn; Miami (FL) – Duke; Michigan State – Nebraska; Oklahoma State – Texas; Houston – Louisville; Texas Tech – Baylor; Stanford – USC, Oregon State – Arizona State. A lot of good games to be seen.