A Foots, and Perchance a Balls?

If you’re anything like me, last weekend gave you an unhealthy amount of pleasure. Not only did college football return, but how! Kicking off with North Carolina and South Carolina on Thursday night, the five-day footbapocalypse didn’t lose steam until late Monday with the ACC’s annual Labor Day matchup. There were even a few decent games (not that opening week really requires it). Virginia Tech showed a surprising amount of fight in containing a seemingly unstoppable Alabama team; perhaps the Tide have more issues than we thought? LSU and TCU, a matchup that normally would have been a headliner, featured more than a few entertaining moments. Of course, Saturday’s nightcap saw Clemson and Georgia put on a marvelous show. As far as Week Ones go, it wasn’t too shabby.

However, the biggest sign that football was back – and the biggest story, with apologies to Clemson – was the nationwide FCS invasion. Remember the preseason predictions that college’s BCS teams would soon break off to form a fourth division above FBS? Maybe we should hold off on that for a while. A stunning seven FCS teams prevailed over their FBS hosts (not including Samford, which defeated transitioning FBS member Georgia State). Southern Utah upset South Alabama. Towson bounced UConn by 15. McNeese State torched South Florida for 53. Southern Illinois (the Salukis!) throttled San Diego State by 21. North Dakota State knocked off reining Big 12 champ Kansas State. Northern Iowa shocked Iowa State. And of course, Eastern Washington notched the upset of the weekend, surviving a thriller to beat 25^th-ranked Oregon State.

While the decision to schedule very good lower-division teams (NDSU and EWU are FCS powerhouses; McNeese State, SIU and Northern Iowa aren’t bad, either) should probably be re-examined, what made the upsets so surprising was how they didn’t seem like upsets at all. Several of the games were won comfortably, with the FCS school looking like the clearly superior team. Case in point: Eastern Washington won by three, but scored on every possession quarterback Vernon Adams was in the game. Oregon State was fortunate to give up ONLY 49 points. McNeese State, meanwhile, scored 40 straight on USF.

In lieu of a top 25, which I don’t believe in before about Week Four, I’ll run down how the individual conferences fared, which in the coming weeks will reveal more or less how my rankings will look. One thing I heard a lot this weekend was, “It’s only Week One,” which is technically true, but really not a valid statement when it comes to college football. The sport’s appeal is based on the idea that every week is a playoff. Why do you think it took 150 years to escape the bowl system? While it may be true that Georgia, for example, isn’t out of the title chase, the Bulldogs are the glaring exception. Playing in the SEC has that benefit. You think TCU will get a shot if the Horned Frogs run the table after losing to LSU? Doubtful, especially with the Big 12’s performance this week.

The mid-major conferences essentially held their own this week, competing about as well as could be expected against BCS opponents who scheduled them as patsies. Nearly every league stole at least one game from a big-name team: Western Kentucky (Sun Belt) upset Kentucky for the second year in a row, Northern Illinois (MAC) avenged a 2012 loss to Iowa and Fresno State (MWC) outlasted Rutgers in a crazy overtime affair. The MAC also got a boost when Bowling Green blasted presumed C-USA contender Tulsa 34-7. The Mountain West fared the worst, with Nevada and Boise State getting crushed and SDSU losing to an FCS team. Conference USA wasn’t great, but faced a pretty difficult slate. The SBC basically met (admittedly low) expectations, so the MAC was the clear winner.

As for the big boys, it was a mixed bag. Alabama beat VaTech by double digits, but the Hokies weren’t ranked. LSU’s win over TCU was probably the best win for the league and Florida holding Toledo to six was impressive, though those achievements were offset by Mississippi State’s anemic effort against Oklahoma State and Georgia’s loss to Clemson. The ACC got that one big win over Georgia, but that was it. The Pac-12 fared much the same, with one big victory (Washington over Boise) to its name but an FCS loss as well. It’s hard to judge the Big Ten, which didn’t play anyone. The losers were the Big 12 and American, though this was a matter of degrees. Yes, the Big 12 saw two schools (K-State and Iowa State) go down to FCS foes and nearly had another lose (WVU escaped William & Mary), but that performance pales next to the underachievements of the newly formed AAC. Connecticut’s blowout loss to Towson merely set the tone; by the time the dust had settled, South Florida 32-point loss had set the mark for largest margin of defeat to an FCS team since 2001 and the league was staring at a 4-6 record. And it didn’t come against great competition.

Next Saturday we’ll learn even more about the conferences, thanks to another solid slate. Florida – Miami (FL) ought to be fun, while Oregon gets an early test at Virginia and Texas (who started slow against New Mexico State) faces BYU. There’s also Notre Dame – Michigan and South Carolina – Georgia, if you must have two ranked teams in your games. Sleeper games I’m interested to watch include Western Kentucky and Tennessee (possible upset alert?) and an improved WSU team versus a USC squad that looked sluggish this week.

Pac-12 Report

Utah got the Pac-12 started on Thursday night, avenging last year’s loss to Utah State. The victory got the Utes off on the right foot, moving toward erasing the memories of 2012’s 5-7 finish. With a fairly tough schedule ahead, Utah will need every win it can get to reach bowl status again. Most promising was the performance of sophomore QB Travis Wilson, who looked ready to fulfill his potential in a 300-yard passing effort.

USC also played opening night, and while the 30-13 score didn’t wow anyone it was at least a solid showing by the defense against Hawai’i. After last season’s historically bad unit, the Trojans should be pleased with this first step. The offense can be dealt with later. Obviously, some fans are panicking after the new QB’s split time and failed to produce big plays, but until SC decides on a starter it seems premature to worry about how the passing attack isn’t as dynamic after losing a four-year letterman at the position.

Arizona was up next. Interestingly enough, despite a more impressive margin (35-0 against Northern Arizona), I felt the Wildcats had more significant problems than USC. The defense played well, holding the Lumberjacks to less than 300 yards in the shutout, but that’s par for the course against an FCS opponent, even for ‘Zona’s awful D. The offense, meanwhile, didn’t look great without RB Ka’Deem Carey. Arizona held the ball for less than 20 minutes and only ran 47 plays to NAU’s 75. This doesn’t qualify as “keeping things vanilla” to hide the playbook from future opponents; if anything, an early-season game against an FCS foe would have been the perfect time to get a few more reps for new QB B.J. Denker.

Saturday saw the conference run the gamut of emotions. Oregon cruised to an easy win over hapless Nicholls State, while Cal and Wazzu lost heartbreakers and Washington announced its return to the big stage by manhandling Boise State. We’ll get to the big games in a minute. First, Oregon: nothing was learned from the 66-3 trouncing of a terrible FCS team, certainly. The Ducks managed to get out of the game without any injuries, though, which is important. That’s more or less what was expected.

UCLA delivered much like Oregon, though Nevada is definitely a better test than Nicholls State. The Bruins rolled up a ton of offense in a 58-20 win, although it is worth noting that the score was only 17-13 at halftime. After a week off UCLA goes to Nebraska, so there needs to be a better four-quarter effort if the Bruins are to pull the upset for a second straight year (although if they win again, shouldn’t we stop calling it an upset? I think at that point everyone would have to admit UCLA is just better).

The Cal and Washington State losses were really tough, as both teams had chances to win against AQ opponents. Cal, playing its first game under Sonny Dykes, looked every bit as good as (probably overrated) 22^nd-ranked Northwestern. The Golden Bears passed for 455 yards with true freshman QB Jared Goff, enough to call Dykes’ system a smashing success. The killer was a pair of deflected passes returned for touchdowns, which was enough to negate Cal’s advantages in yards, first downs and time of possession. The future looks bright for this program – check out this fake! – but that had to hurt.

The story was much the same for WSU, who nearly doubled up Auburn in first downs and outgained the Tigers by more than 50 yards. Turnovers remain the great equalizer, though: the Cougars gave away three interceptions, including a killer pick on the goal line late in the fourth quarter. Wazzu gave a pretty solid “Coug” effort once again, allowing a kickoff return TD and a 75-yard run for a score. Without those fluke plays, the team would have notched a comfortable win. If those things get cleaned up, this week’s game with USC could be very interesting.

I’ll skip the two most important games of the weekend to quickly jump to Colorado. The Buffs played great in a win over rival CSU, dropping more than 500 yards of offense on the Rams and showing the kind of big-play ability the team has sorely lacked with a pair of deep TD passes. It was wonderful to see WR Paul Richardson on the field again for CU. His presence could very well signal a shift in the program’s momentum. With a freebie against Central Arkansas of the FCS on deck, might Colorado be looking at a 2-0 start? It would be the first for the Buffaloes since 2008.

Washington was unquestionably the most impressive Pac-12 team of the week, handing Boise State its worst loss under Chris Petersen. After Keith Price tossed a pick on the first play the senior QB was superb, as were the rest of the Huskies in holding BSU to two field goals and racking up nearly 600 yards of offense. It’s early, but it’s possible I should have had UW and Oregon State swapped in my preseason predictions. A word of caution: this Boise team might not be that good. But we’ll see; for now, UW looks like a player in the North race.

While Washington’s victory was big, the most notable result from the conference’s first week was Oregon State (that’s 25^th-ranked OSU) going down to Eastern Washington. Now, I hate to pile on the Beavers, but the truth is that game was simply unacceptable. OSU played as if the win was a given and the Eagles would eventually fold if the Beavs just scored a few more times. The offense was pretty good (considering that Oregon State will face MUCH better defenses), but the OSU defense was the same old story.

Remember in 2007, when Michigan got torched by Appalachian State and Oregon in consecutive weeks to start the season and everyone said the Wolverines couldn’t handle the spread? Oregon State has become the poster boy for that kind of team: decent overall, yet hopelessly flummoxed against a mobile QB. The players didn’t look alert against EWU, but for my money the problem is defensive coordinator Mark Banker.

Much like Jeff Tedford, who was once considered an offensive genius, Banker looks like a man who’s had the game pass him by. How is it possible the Beavers’ schemes still don’t account for a running QB, the read-option, or any offensive wrinkle popularized post-2005? Oregon, OSU’s biggest rival, has been running some form of the spread for nearly a decade. It’s become the dominant offense in the Pac-12. The Beavs see this all the time and there’s still very little improvement.

After watching the game twice, what struck me most was the complete lack of adjustments made by the Beavers’ D. It’s not crazy for an FCS team to hurt you in the first half, but greater depth and halftime adjustments usually mean the FBS team dominates after the break, as was the case in West Virginia’s second-half shutout of William & Mary. Oregon State coaches have claimed they mixed up coverages against EWU, but the receivers running wide open all over the field seem to dispute that.

The single significant change OSU made was to blitz. And blitz. And blitz. The Beavs just kept adding defenders to the rush, as if that would make up for general bad defense. Adams, the Eagles’ talented QB, simply read the “coverage” and fired to the open man. On the occasions OSU did reach Adams, defenders would blow past him while he calmly sidestepped, scrambled and bought time for another strike. It was a cool, systematic dissection, and it was an absolute disgrace. Mike Riley isn’t the problem here. Though the head coach deserves some blame, I put this on Banker.

This week: Oregon travels to Virginia for a (dangerous?) test, Oregon State gets a chance at redemption against Hawai’i and Wazzu meets USC. That’s really about it. If any other Pac-12 schools lose, it would be surprising. This is patsy week.

Random Thoughts and Observations

As promised, I have a topic of much importance this week. I mentioned in my season preview the proliferation of plays that I’ve dubbed critical turnovers and critical mistakes (abbreviated here as just “critical turnovers”), plays that aren’t necessarily reflected by the box score. A critical turnover is not necessarily a play when the ball changes possession, though it will be quite often. This concept may seem simple, but bear with me.

Are all turnovers created equal? The answer should be no; an interception at midfield that leads to a punt is hardly the same as a fumble on the 10. Whether the team that fumbled was about to score itself or sets up a score, the result is much more impactful than the aforementioned interception. Yet both plays are recorded as one turnover. Any time the football changes hands inside either team’s red zone momentum swings in a major way, particularly on the devastating kickoff-return fumble (or “krumble”, as per ESPN’s Gregg Easterbrook). The same goes for turnovers on downs or any play that shifts a scoring opportunity to the opposition.

There was a fantastic example of a “critical turnover” in Friday’s Kansas State – NDSU game. With four minutes left in the first half, K-State QB Jake Waters threw an INT at his own 29. After two incompletions, North Dakota State surprised the Wildcats with a draw for 14 yards on third-and-10. With the home crowd still reeling, Bison QB Brock Jensen dialed in a gorgeous pass to tight end Kevin Vaadeland, who promptly dropped the ball in the end zone. No matter, right? After all, it was only first down. Here’s the next three plays: rush for two yards, sack, missed FG. Vaadeland’s drop was a critical turnover – it cost his team not four, but seven points.

So there you have it. Critical turnovers are essentially like errors in baseball (and perhaps we should count them the same way). They’re loosely defined as plays that have an impact beyond the box score, though they can also be quite obvious. This isn’t a revolutionary concept, but I haven’t seen anything like this on any other website, so I’m claiming it as my own.

After last year’s NFL fiasco it seemed reasonable to hope both the NCAA and NFL would find a way to tighten things up and streamline penalty definitions for clarity and consistency. At least in Week One, that wasn’t the case. Yes, replay is still applied haphazardly and in the fashion most jarring to the rhythm of offenses. Yes, runners are still being called down at the one-inch line far too often. Either we have a nation of supernaturally gifted, eagle-eyed officials, or refs are still trying to be the smartest guys on the field INSTEAD OF JUST CALLING TOUCHDOWNS AND USING REPLAY WHERE IT’S SUPPOSED TO BE USED. The new targeting rules have produced exactly the same amount of confusion as before, in some cases rightfully penalizing offenders and in others tossing guys for making legal hits. Oh, and the Pac-12 still has the worst refs, hands down. Sigh. Maybe things will improve as the year goes along.

It was with some amusement during the summer I noted new Arkansas coach Bret Bielema has joined Alabama’s Nick Saban as the only guys on the planet who think the no-huddle should be banned. Referring to the unfounded notion that playing football faster results in more injuries, Bielema’s words parroted the traditionalist line that spread offenses aren’t “real football.” This is as insulting as when people refer to the “real America.” Football is a constantly evolving game. The spread uses elements of offenses from as far back as the 1930’s. Of course power teams want the spread to be illegal; they don’t want to have to chase those little fast guys around. Regardless of the power coaches think they wield, it’s unlikely the rules will be changed to favor the ones who are now in the minority.

I guess I have to talk about Johnny Manziel at some point. His offseason, the most bizarre one for a still-collegiate Heisman winner in memory, was by no means the NCAA equivalent of the Aaron Hernandez case. Keeping things in perspective, it’s important to remember that Manziel hasn’t killed anybody or robbed someone at gunpoint. However, it’s also true that his behavior was wildly atypical of a Heisman candidate and, if it didn’t shame the award, it didn’t exactly polish it either. The NCAA’s pathetic attempt to punish him (you thought Oregon got off easy?) came off as desperate because Manziel’s lawyers forced their hand, but that certainly doesn’t exonerate him. If anything, he’s guiltier in the court of public opinion, which will eventually deny him any chance at repeating his award(s). The best thing Manziel could have done after all the controversy was keep quiet and at least act humbled. But no, there he was against Rice, getting in players’ faces and making a couple of very ill-advised taunting gestures. It’s clear that he doesn’t get it and has zero perspective on the situation.

The strange thing during the summer was how many pundits wrote the same article regarding Manziel’s alleged wrongdoings. I can’t remember how many times I read that, “The Johnny Football autograph situation is indicative of what’s wrong with the NCAA.” Since when? Did the country’s legion of middle-aged sportswriters just now realize the NCAA has been exploiting athletes for decades? Why is it suddenly a huge issue when a white player can’t cash in on his name in college sports? I recall silence when A.J. Green and Dez Bryant got slapped with penalties by the NCAA. Of course the establishment’s amateurism rules are bogus. But everyone signs the same agreement to play at the college level, a document that amounts to a contract with the NCAA. If you don’t like it, you don’t have to sign it and you don’t play. Should the system be redesigned? Absolutely. But it’s sad that sportswriters are making Manziel the martyr in all this. He signed the same agreement as everybody else.

A couple fun notes to end the week: in Fresno State’s epic 52-51 OT win over Rutgers, QB’s Derek Carr (Fresno) and Gary Nova (Rutgers) combined for 114 pass attempts, 804 yards and 10 TD’s, with Carr personally completing 52 of his 73 attempts. The Bulldogs had three WR’s with at least 13 catches. Good lord.

Texas Tech’s Baker Mayfield made history against SMU when he became the first walk-on true freshman to start a season opener at QB for a BCS-level school. One day later, Cal’s Goff did the same (although Goff wasn’t a walk-on). How did the young guns do? They each put the ball in the air at least 60 times and gained at least 400 yards with six TD’s between them. Not bad.

Mississippi State, who among the SEC’s cupcake schedulers has long been the creamiest of the puffiest, faced a non-league BCS opponent for the first time since 2009. In case you wondered why MSU has been off to such nice starts in recent years, there’s your reason. The game with Oklahoma State didn’t go well; after a FG on their opening possession, the Bulldogs failed to score again.

Next week: rankings shakeup? Oregon and Ohio State switching places? How scandalous! Clemson deserves to be in the top five, but no one else has played anyone good enough to warrant a ranking at all. This is why early polls make no sense.