2013 Preview, Part II

Yesterday I ran down the most likely contenders for the BCS crown in 2013. Today, we go smaller with the individual conference champions. Because of the historical significance of conferences in college football, I firmly maintain that entrants in the College Football Playoff starting in 2014 should HAVE to be league champions to be eligible. But then the SEC couldn’t get two teams in, so… that’s a conversation for another time. Here are my predictions.

Conference Outlook

American Athletic

Projected Champion: Louisville

I wrote out the full name in case anyone needed reminding that the former Big East is now the AAC (not to be confused with the ACC, or the other AAC – the Appalachian Athletic Conference. Good job with the naming, guys). You might be under the impression that the downtrodden Big East will be just as bad as it has been in recent years, regardless of the facelift. In that case, you’d be wrong. It’ll be much worse! Since 2011 the league has lost flagship programs West Virginia, Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and the bleeding only continues in 2014 with Louisville and Rutgers. In response, the American adds UCF, Houston, SMU and Memphis this year along with Tulsa, Tulane and ECU in 2014 and Navy in 2015. It won’t be enough to keep the conference relevant, as the American loses its BCS bid after this season. The schools involved did a great job keeping the Big East together as long as they did following the initial defections of Virginia Tech, Miami (FL) and Boston College to the ACC. West Virginia stepped up and became the big-time program the league needed to stay afloat, while naysayers were held at bay with a 5-3 BCS bowl record. Unfortunately, now even the above-average teams are bailing, relegating the American to have-not status forevermore. It’s a shame, but that’s the consequence of greedy conference realignment.

Cincinnati, UCF and Rutgers may be decent this year, but there’s no way one of them is good enough to seriously challenge the Cardinals as they abandon this sinking ship. The increase in competition will be enough to submarine the hopes of even a good mid-major like newcomer Central Florida and I haven’t seen nearly enough out of Cincy or Rutgers (even in their close losses to UL last year) to expect them to have a chance. The rest of the conference is, quite frankly, garbage.

ACC

Projected Champion: Clemson over Miami (FL)

Tough call here in the Coastal Division. I’ve laid out my reasoning for Clemson over FSU in the Atlantic, where no one else should be able to challenge the Tigers and Seminoles. But the Coastal is a lot murkier. A case can be made for Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, North Carolina and even Georgia Tech. I’m going with the Hurricanes, despite a dangerous week two matchup with Florida that could serve to crush (or kick-start?) the season. Stephen Morris is a good QB and the ‘Canes return a bunch of starters from a team that tied for the division title last season, although they are at a disadvantage as the only one of the four contenders with Florida State on the schedule (Georgia Tech plays Clemson, and VT and Carolina miss them both).

I can’t trust erratic Hokies QB Logan Thomas, who was a complete mess last year. VT also plays at Georgia Tech and at Miami (FL). Also, there’s the question of whether the team will be able to mentally rebound from the week one shellacking in store from Alabama. North Carolina – which tied Miami (FL) for the Coastal lead in 2012 but was likewise ineligible for the postseason – is intriguing as a third option. Bryn Renner is also a very good QB, though I think the Tar Heels will miss RB Giovani Bernard and their departed linemen. As for Georgia Tech… we’ll know early. My Yellow Jackets open ACC play with North Carolina, Virginia Tech and (at) Miami (FL). The main reasons for pessimism? The defense is there but the offense looks potentially ugly.

Big Ten

Projected Champion: Ohio State over Michigan

As with the ACC, one half of this equation appears very simple while the other is quite difficult. Ohio State is the clear front-runner in the (mercifully) soon-to-be-renamed Leaders Division, with only minor threats from decent-but-not-great Wisconsin and Penn State squads. Meanwhile, over in the Legends we’ve got a complete mess. Michigan and Nebraska are the top teams, with Northwestern and Michigan State waiting in the wings. I like Michigan. Devin Gardner has the makings of the next great Wolverines QB and very little has been lost in true star power on either side of the ball. Denard Robinson is finally gone, but does anybody really think Big Blue will be the worse for it? More problematic is the loss of S Jordan Kovacs, who really anchored the secondary. Overall Michigan is the best team in the division, so my only hesitation comes when looking at the schedule. Unlike Nebraska, the Wolverines have to play Ohio State, but to offset this they do get the Cornhuskers at home.

Nebraska’s offense will once again be frightening, as the steadily improving Taylor Martinez returns to guide a talented and veteran offense. However, as good as the Huskers might be on that side of the ball, there’s the nagging issue of defense. Remember the Blackshirts unit that gave up 70 to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship and 45 to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl? Only four starters return. This group is young and unproven. I can’t pick them to beat Michigan. You’ll hear that Northwestern went 10-3 and should have won all three games they lost; which is true, but misleading, considering that the Wildcats missed Ohio State and Wisconsin and struggled against several lower-tier opponents. Their 2012 season was a bit of a mirage. As for MSU... well, time may prove me wrong, but I think the Spartans are actually getting too MUCH love, even coming off a 7-6 season. The defense is quite good, but the offense is just horrendous AND loses its only playmaker in RB Le’Veon Bell.

Big 12

Projected Champion: Texas

Oklahoma and Kansas State both lost senior QB’s, so the conference race looks like it’s down to the Longhorns and Oklahoma State. UT gets to host the Cowboys, which is one advantage, but there are other reasons to pick Texas as well. Consider, if you will, that last season the Longhorns’ D gave up an additional 100 yards per game than it did in 2011 yet was STILL better than OSU’s. UT’s defense should be back to form this year, but those numbers are pretty much par for the course for Okie State, who has pretty much just tried to outscore everybody the past six or seven seasons. Now, OSU should be very good and could very well beat Texas in Austin, but given the choice between a balanced team and one that only plays offense, I’ll take the former every time. Texas is also unquestionably deeper and more talented than the Cowboys, even though Mike Gundy (to whom Longhorns coach Mack Brown can’t hold a candle) has done a great job building up the program.

The rest of the league should once again fill out as, if not great, than at least above average. Oklahoma may be down but for the Sooners that means eight or nine wins instead of 11 or 12. K-State should take a step back, but TCU and Baylor are on the upswing, so the only true bottom-feeders ought to be Kansas and possibly Texas Tech (I believe in you, Iowa State!). The Big 12 is pretty solid from top to bottom and has made a statement by committing to nine league games. Given that the SEC’s additions have almost eliminated cross-divisional play, I would consider this conference the most difficult to navigate in the regular season.

Conference USA

Projected Champion: Tulsa over Marshall

The C-USA takes a step down this season, losing multiple teams to the American Athletic Conference. Because of six new additions, the league will actually play with 14 members in 2013, two more than last season. However, these new schools (Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech and Texas-San Antonio) all hail from conferences even lower on the ladder than the C-USA, and only Louisiana Tech has a hope of competing in the new surroundings. The contenders will come from the incumbents. Both divisions look to pretty much be two-team races: Marshall and ECU in the East, Tulsa and Rice in the West.

I think any of those four teams could win their division and the conference title, but I went with Tulsa and Marshall. Rice has gotten some buzz, but the biggest feather in the Owls’ er, helmet, is the 19 returning starters from 2012’s 7-6 squad. Tulsa returns just 10 starters but has been so much better over the past several years it’s hard for me to pick against them. The Golden Hurricane also get Rice at home. In the East, ECU tied for the division crown last year and returns a lot of starters on both sides, including receiver Justin Hardy, the league’s returning leader in touchdown catches (11). However, Marshall also returns a great deal of players and has the trump card in that regard: Thundering Herd QB Rakeem Cato passed for more than 4,000 yards and 37 TD’s last year and he’ll once again be throwing to the C-USA’s leaders in receptions (WR Tommy Shuler, 110). These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I give the advantage to Marshall because they get to host the Pirates.

MAC

Projected Champion: Bowling Green over Northern Illinois

Reaching for the upset here, as two-time defending champ NIU will be most everyone’s preseason pick. The league stubbornly continues its goofy 13-team rotation into 2013, but unlike the C-USA the MAC has actually managed some continuity in member schools. NIU reeled off 12 straight wins last year, including an epic double-overtime win over Kent State in the MAC Championship, to reach the Orange Bowl. They were promptly crushed by Florida State but that’s hardly the point; the Huskies were quite good. They return do-everything QB Jordan Lynch, who led the conference in rushing, rushing TD’s and passing efficiency. I think he’ll be enough to make up for the loss of seven defensive starters and propel the Huskies past Toledo in the West. Toledo is formidable again, returning not only QB Terrance Owens but virtually all its skill players from an exceptionally talented and balanced offensive attack, including RB David Fluellen and WR Bernard Reedy. Like the Huskies, the Rockets lose most of their defensive starters. I think NIU will once again win a close showdown between these two teams and otherwise roll through the MAC to the title game…

…Where they’ll be upset by Bowling Green. It’s hard to make a case for anyone else in the East Division; 2012 winner Kent State was actually outgained on the year despite winning 11 games and loses half its starters on both sides and Ohio, while pretty good, got somewhat exposed over the second half of last season. BGSU returns QB Matt Schilz (who should rebound from a rough 2012 and return to his 2011 form) and 10 starters overall on offense, but that’s not the reason I see the Falcons getting to the MAC title game and knocking off NIU. That would be the defense, which returns 9 starters from last year’s unit that was the best in the league by a huge margin, including first against the run, pass, in total yards and in scoring. Led by NFL prospect S “BooBoo” Gates, the Falcons will once again have the MAC on lockdown.

Mountain West

Projected Champion: Boise State over Fresno State

Man, Boise State was terrible last year. Remember how they lost at Michigan State in the opener and nobody ever heard from them again… what’s that? The Broncos went 11-2 and won the MWC, you say? Good heavens. Yes, despite breaking in a new QB and a dozen new starters, BSU led the conference in defense and continued its winning ways. Thanks to the collapse of the Big East, the MWC was able to retain Boise State and San Diego State and pull in two top WAC schools (Utah State and San Jose State) to form a 12-team league with divisions and a conference title game. This essentially makes the Mountain West the new WAC (R.I.P.)… but let’s roll with it.

It’s tough for me to take the Broncos over Utah State in the new Mountain Division because I really like Aggies’ QB Chuckie Keeton, but stepping up to a stronger conference will ultimately hurt USU, even with the sweetheart schedule they got their first year. Make no mistake, the MWC is quite good, almost without a doubt the top mid-major conference. Boise will be able to attest to that, as they play at West Division contenders Fresno State and San Diego State AND on the road against USU. It’s even tougher for me to pick the Broncos to beat Fresno in the title game. Fresno QB Derek Carr has become every bit the player his big brother was* and the Bulldogs return a lot of guys on both sides. However, it’s the caliber of the players lost that counts. S Philip Thomas was a consensus All-American, but he’s not even the most damaging graduation. That honor goes to RB Robbie Rouse, who shattered Fresno’s all-time rushing record and was one of the most important players in program history. I see this team getting past SDSU (who returns nine defensive starters but will be anemic offensively) but losing to Boise State.

*For the rubes, that’s former top overall pick in the NFL Draft David Carr (2002, Texans), who in 2001 helmed the first offense in college football history with a 4,000 yard passer, two 1,000 receivers, and a 1,000 yard rusher.

Pac-12

Projected Champion: Coming tomorrow

SEC

Projected Champion: Alabama over Georgia

I don’t think I need to waste space talking about how the SEC is really, really, really good. Alabama is the team to beat in the West, certainly, but LSU would be a favorite in most other conferences. Texas A&M, flawed though I believe them to be, ain’t bad. Ole Miss has even gotten a ton of buzz thanks to a sterling recruiting class and 19 returning starters. Mississippi State, which parlayed a cupcake schedule into an eight-win 2012, is probably headed for an ugly season, though Auburn and Arkansas will surely be better than the sloppy messes both resembled last year. And that’s just one division!

The East isn’t quite as loaded, but the three teams (Georgia, Florida and South Carolina) who won a combined 34 games last season should fight each other to the death again. While I foresee a slight drop-off from the Gators, UGA and Carolina should be very strong. Tennessee’s powerful offensive line should finally get the Volunteers back to respectability and Vanderbilt, though not great, won nine games in 2012. I explained how I feel about several of these teams in detail in my championship contenders section, but I can reiterate in short form. The East should come down to Georgia and South Carolina, while Alabama is the clear favorite in the West. Yes, this is the nation’s best conference. After what was a slightly down year for the league a year ago, I think this season will be much better, possibly the SEC’s best ever. That’s a scary thought.

Sun Belt

Projected Champion: Louisiana-Lafayette

The Sun Belt has gone through some upheaval of late, though not as much as some of its mid-major counterparts. However, as the de facto “lowest conference” on the ladder, conference realignment eventually did work its way down. As the ACC poached from the former Big East, so did the new American steal from Conference USA, which in turn snatched up the last remaining FBS-level schools it could find, located in the SBC. Interestingly, though, I don’t think the league will be much worse for it. FIU, FAU, North Texas and Middle Tennessee are out, but only FIU had a winning record in-conference over the past five years. Next year Western Kentucky leaves, but the Hilltoppers only recently moved up from FCS themselves. The core of the conference’s best teams – Arkansas State, ULL, Louisiana-Monroe and Troy – remains, and it will be bolstered by fast-rising new programs Georgia State and South Alabama and current FCS juggernauts Georgia Southern and Appalachian State (they’re baaaaaack!).

As for this season, there are a few solid contenders. I favor the delightfully named Ragin’ Cajuns, who return a decent amount of starters from last year’s second-place team along with the intriguing Terrance Broadway at QB. Broadway, who started his career at Houston, was once a highly touted prospect and could really make an impact in his first full season as a starter. ULL will have its work cut out; rival ULM also features a talented signal-caller in Kolton Browning, who caught the attention of the nation by completing 42 of 68 passes for more than 400 yards in the Warhawks’ opening-day upset of Arkansas. Western Kentucky is also dangerous: the only team to beat two-time champion Arkansas State last season, WKU rose to 5-1 (with the only loss at Alabama), before fumbling away a chance at a SBC title. The infamous Bobby Petrino is the Hilltoppers’ new head man, which adds another element to their story; regardless of his personal life, Petrino can certainly coach. This will be a fun race.

For the heck of it, this is how I’d rank the conferences in terms of overall strength going into 2013:

1) SEC

2) Big 12

2) Pac-12 

4) Big Ten 

5) ACC

6) Mountain West

7) American 

8) MAC

9) Conference USA

10) Sun Belt

But who knows how it will play out during the season? I’m interested to see if the Big 12 or Pac-12 can firmly take the reins as the second-best league, as neither could claim a clear advantage at the end of 2012. The middle of the Big 12 had more depth, but the top of the Pac-12 was stronger (as seen in Oregon’s thrashing of Kansas State). The Big 12 may not be significantly better this year, but it certainly shouldn’t be any worse. You’ll have to wait until tomorrow to hear about the Pac-12.