Return of the Predictions (West Coast Spectacular)

Pac-12 Preview

The Pac-12 in 2013 is both very easy and very difficult to predict. In general, the "levels" of the teams are obvious. Going by division, Oregon and Stanford are the two best teams in the North and the conference; OSU and Washington are the underdogs with a chance at upsetting the balance and Cal and WSU are the bottom-feeders. In the South, ASU and USC are the front-runners but will face challenges from UCLA and Arizona, while Utah and Colorado bring up the rear. It’s a simple three-tiered hierarchy in both divisions. The problem, though, is deciding the exact order how the teams will finish, which is essentially a question of a few key games.

Once again, I’ve mapped out the entire season for each team, picking definite wins and losses and “swing” games that could go either way to determine the range of record the school can reasonably expect to have. The exact results of that exercise will be revealed at the end of the post. First, I need to give a few thoughts about each squad, in order of how I predict they’ll finish.

North Division

Oregon

I said a lot about Oregon in my contenders section, so I’ll try not to repeat myself too much. Despite losing to Stanford last season, UO was the best team in the conference, averaging two touchdowns more than the next closest team and only giving up 21 points per Pac-12 contest. The personnel losses from that team are significant, but manageable. Michael Clay, Kiko Alonso and Dion Jordan were excellent linebackers, while no one running back will equal the production of Kenjon Barner. However, Oregon has talented players ready to take their places and these are essentially the only important departures. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is one of the best in the country and slotback De’Anthony Thomas will continue to work his magic on the ground, through the air and in the return game. Defensively, 2013 may feature the best secondary in UO history, which is REALLY saying something, considering the contributions of the Gang Green crew, Rashad Bauman and company, and 2008’s “D-Boyz.”

Moreover, the schedule is mighty nice. For the first time in a decade UO misses USC (the presumed winner in the South) and plays two of its four conference road games at Colorado and Arizona, which should be easy wins. Additionally, non-league games against Tennessee and at Virginia are winnable yet provide the team with a chance to impress the nation on a big stage. The road does get more treacherous late, with a trip to Stanford and the Civil War finale (at home), but the truth is the Ducks will be favored in every game. With the talent on the roster and a very favorable schedule, I have Oregon running the table.

Stanford

Stanford, as you’ll see by my win/loss range below, could absolutely do the same. The Cardinal beat the Ducks and won the Pac-12 last year despite playing without a QB for the first half of the season. LB Chase Thomas is the only big loss from the conference’s best defense, which gave up an outrageous 2.3 yards a carry in 2012 (no other team averaged fewer than four). ‘Backers Shave Skov, Trent Murphy and A.J. Tarpley anchor one of the best units in the country, while ballhawk Ed Reynolds covers things up from his safety position. On offense, the massive Cardinal front will once again look to grind opponents into dust and should make things easier for young Kevin Hogan, who showed great promise – and more importantly, efficiency – once given the starting job.

However, as I said in my contenders section, there’s absolutely nothing about the offense that scares anyone. Stanford ranked seventh last season in yards and points per game. Those numbers are unlikely to improve considering the losses of both starting tight ends (Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo), the two most productive receivers (Drew Terrell and Jamal-Rashad Patterson) and of course, RB Stepfan Taylor, who only accounted for a third of the team’s entire offensive production. But the biggest problem for the Cardinal is luck; the team was extremely fortunate last year to beat Arizona, Oregon State, Oregon and UCLA (in the Pac-12 Championship). They were outgained in five wins and in eight games overall. This team will be quite good, but I don’t think another 12 win-season is realistic.

Oregon State

What’s realistic for OSU? With Sean Mannion finally named as the starting QB, the Beavers should think big. I’m not predicting them to go 12-0, but every game on the schedule is winnable and the team looks to have its mojo back after going 8-16 in 2010-11. Defensively, ends Scott Crichton and Dylan Wynn are classic 4-3 pass rushers and D.J. Alexander and Michael Doctor head a strong LB corps that should continue to move the program back towards its “West Coast Linebacker U” aspirations. The loss of Jordan Poyer in the secondary is no doubt a blow, but enough talent remains (Ryan Murphy, Rashaad Reynolds) that I don’t foresee a massive drop-off.

Oregon State’s offense has long been built on efficiency, not explosiveness, but that might change somewhat this year. After rushing for an awful 124 yards per game last year, the Beavs should finally be able to complement their aerial attack with some consistency on the ground thanks to an improving and cohesive line. OSU isn’t going to remind anyone of Oregon, but should be able to top 2012’s paltry 1,617 total yards with ease. The RB’s are a year older and better, which should also help. Now the question is whether the passing game can continue to click as it did in the first half of the season. Mannion was impressive before his injury but regressed afterwards. He needs to prove he can play a full season of good football before I feel comfortable picking the Beavers to really challenge for the conference title. Also rough: the five best opponents are the last five games on the schedule.

Washington

What’s that about QB’s putting together a full season? To be fair, Keith Price had a marvelous 2011 and tried to do too much last year after losing a ton of playmakers. He’s not going to come out and win the Pac-12 singlehandedly, but he’ll look better than he did last season. Part of that is because of the rapport his offense should have with 10 returning starters. Another is that his skill players are all solid. Bishop Sankey is a good workhorse at RB and Kasen Williams has become a true number one receiver. Of course, the Huskies also feature Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who should be regarded as the top TE in college football. Add that up, and you’ve got an offensive stew, baby!

The defense is a little more questionable. Coach Steve Sarkisian has certainly raised the overall talent level of this team since taking over in 2009, but UW’s defense hasn’t shown the kind of growth it should have at this point. Losing all-conference CB Desmond Trufant and S Justin Glen (76 tackles) won’t help. There are some pieces here. S/LB Shaq Thompson more or less lived up to his very high billing as a freshman, LB’s John Timu and Travis Feeney will continue to be impressive and S Sean Parker has long anchored the secondary in Seattle. But there’s not quite enough to predict a huge jump. With an improved offense, that might not be necessary all the time, but against the Oregons and Stanfords of the world it probably will. Opening with Boise State and against Illinois in Chicago (bad team but a long trip) could either jump-start or cripple this team right from the outset.

Washington State

Wazzu finished a disappointing 3-9 in Mike Leach’s first year, but there were a couple of encouraging signs. The Cougars’ D, which on the surface looked as bad as ever, actually finished fourth in the league against the pass and only gave up 4.2 yards per rush (good for sixth). Those numbers are atypical of a nine-loss team. WSU once again “Coug-ed” several games, such as a 35-34 home loss to Colorado and a pair of painful one-score losses to division winners Stanford and UCLA, whom Wazzu outgained by an average of 150 yards. This team was not as bad as it looked in 2012.

The killer was pass efficiency defense, as the Cougs allowed a league-worst 68.5% completion rate. That number should go down as the team returns nine defensive starters, including star safeties Deone Buchannon and Casey Locker. Losing rushbacker Travis Long will hurt, but the second year in a new system will see improved production. The same can probably be said for Leach’s offense, to which the players have had a year to adjust. QB Connor Halliday didn’t set the world on fire in his relief appearances last year; he’ll need to be better to make this attack work. Rushing has never been a primary (or secondary) concern of the Air Raid, but keeping defenses more honest will be paramount: WSU rushed for an astounding 349 yards ON THE YEAR in 2012. Ultimately, I think this team will improve again, but it won’t necessarily be reflected in the win column.

California

It’s hard to know what to expect for the Golden Bears under new coach Sonny Dykes. We do know that they’ll throw; Dykes’ offenses have done that in spades. But Cal isn’t Wazzu. This program has more talent than that and shouldn’t be satisfied with airing it out as the first, second and third option. That would be a massive waste of the squad’s athletic resources. With that said, RB Brendan Bigelow flashed incredible potential last season and could be a perfect fit for a spread offense. Ka’Deem Carey thrived in a similar situation at Arizona, but the caveat is that Cal doesn’t have a great QB like Matt Scott to take the reins. Zach Kline, Jared Goff… whichever player ultimately takes the most snaps will have to deal with a lot of pressure.

The Bears can’t even lean on what was, until 2012, a strong and talented defense. Only half the starters return, just like on offense, and they’ll be moving to a 4-3. As with Washington, there are some good pieces here – DT Deandre Coleman, S Michael Lowe and LB’s Jalen Jefferson and Nick Forbes all represent their respective units well – but not enough to significantly improve the defense or make up for what could be a rough transitional year on offense. It’s worth noting that last season was a complete meltdown for Cal, so it’s unlikely every break will go against the team again in 2013. However, that’s still not enough for me to predict the Bears jumping out of the North cellar, much less really being a factor in the conference race.

South Division

USC

After a year of abuse from opposing fans and the media, the Trojans will be ready to make people eat their words. The QB situation will be different. That’s probably a good thing. For too long SC allowed its “golden boy” tradition of glorifying signal-callers to overshadow the rest of the talent in the program. This was evident in how the Trojans increasingly abandoned the run in each of the past two seasons to pump up the passing stats at the expense of wins. Perhaps a more measured approach, with a less-capable QB, will pay off. The weapons are still there: Marqise Lee remains the most dominant receiver in the game and Nelson Agholor should slide nicely into the hole left by the departed Robert Woods. Silas Redd, while still not the incredible player some believe him to be, is more than good enough to put up numbers behind a great O-line.

However, whenever the Trojans have been great – I mean National title great – it’s been because of defense, not offense. The star-studded offenses USC fielded in the mid-2000’s would have gone nowhere without elite defenses to get them the ball. Consider that from 2004 to 2008, SC allowed more than 300 yards per game only once. Since Lane Kiffin took over, the defense has averaged 400, 375 and 394 yards per game. The 2013 group should be closer to the former than the latter. LB Devon Kennard returns from last year’s preseason torn pectoral and joins with Hayes Pullard and Dion Bailey to form an intimidating trio. S T.J. McDonald is gone, but with his average cover skills and penchant for gambling and penalties I honestly don’t think he’ll be missed. This team is beginning to really feel the impact of the scholarship restrictions laid down by the NCAA, but with the talent available (if not the depth), SC should return to the Pac-12 title game.

Arizona State

The Sun Devils broke through last season, shocking the conference with new coach Todd Graham and frosh QB Taylor Kelly. If not for a tight loss in a wild shootout with UCLA, it would have been ASU, not the Bruins, playing in the Pac-12 Championship. The good news is that despite the loss of RB Cameron Marshall, the ground game shouldn’t miss a beat thanks to the excellent duo of Marion Grice and D.J. Foster, who both excel rushing and receiving. There are a few losses along the line and in the receiving corps, but Kelly’s continued maturation should be enough to nullify those issues. The same is true for the defense, which loses leading tacklers LB Brandon Magee and S Keelan Johnson but otherwise returns most of a decent unit that ranked a respectable fourth in the conference in 2012. DT Will Sutton is a monster capable of devouring double teams, who strikes fear in the hearts of every line he faces. His mates along the line aren’t no-names, either: Jaxon Hood, Junior Onyeali and DE/LB Carl Bradford combine to form a fearsome pass-rushing unit.

The bad news is in the back seven. Although there’s no reason to think the D will suddenly become a sieve, it’s unlikely ASU will lead the Pac-12 in passing yardage and pass efficiency defense again. Ultimately, I think the Sun Devils will be more or less as good as last season, but a hidden nugget about their successful 2012 campaign was that they only beat one team with a winning record (Navy, in the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl). With Wisconsin and Notre Dame on the non-league schedule and Stanford and OSU out of the North, ASU will have a difficult road to topping last season’s eight wins.

UCLA

The Bruins lived a charmed existence last year. Like Arizona State, they started a redshirt freshman QB who immediately made the team relevant. Brett Hundley did all that could be asked of him and more, but for UCLA to make it back to the Pac-12 title game in 2013 he’ll need to be even better. I’m not sure that’s realistic. Departed RB Johnathan Franklin was the heart and soul of the Bruins and his 1,734 yards will be hard to replace. Losing TE Joe Fauria, a reliable and dominant red-zone target, won’t help either. The offense won’t completely stall out, but it won’t have the luxury of playing off a veteran defense anymore.

Anthony Barr, NFL prospect extraordinaire, decided to return to UCLA for his senior season, so the Bruins did manage to avoid total catastrophe. Still, the losses here are significant. Datone Jones was a great, versatile end and Tevin McDonald may have been the league’s most underrated safety. The secondary must also replace SS Andrew Abbott along with stalwart CB’s Aaron Hester and Sheldon Price, which makes the Bruins’ pass defense highly suspect. In the pass-happy, spread-you-out Pac-12, that’s a recipe for disaster. To make matters worse, talented pass-rusher Owamagbe Odighizuwe was lost for the season during spring drills. UCLA has improved a little, but not enough to easily cover up these holes. A slightly down year seems to be in the cards.

Arizona

Poor Arizona. The Wildcats snagged a big-name coach whose spread scheme perfectly fit the talent in the program, including a fantastic dual-threat QB in Matt Scott. The defense, one of the worst in the nation, can only improve in year two of Rich Rodriguez’s unorthodox 3-3-5. The offense, led by dynamic RB Ka’Deem Carey, could certainly pick up right where it left off… if only Scott hadn’t graduated. Now, despite Carey’s prodigious talent, the Cats have significant questions about how the offense will function without its point man. Call me crazy, but I don’t see Carey repeating his 1,900 yards in 2012 without Scott to balance the other half of the read option.

As for that D… well, it certainly can’t get any worse. In fact, with all 11 starters back, it should be much improved. Shaq Richardson is an excellent cover man at CB and combines with Jonathan McKnight to form a solid starting duo, while the surprising Jared Tevis should continue to provide much-needed recovery ability from his safety spot. More production is needed up front, though, where UA gave up 4.6 yards a rush, worst of the non-Colorado schools. Slowing down opposing ground games will not only give the defense a breather, it will force QB’s to make some bad throws. ‘Zona ranked dead last in the Pac-12( including Colorado!) with just 16 sacks on the year. Another performance like that won’t do. The Wildcats have a seriously weak nonconference sked, but draw five Pac-12 road games and must play Oregon from the North. I don’t think another eight-win season is likely.

Utah

I don’t think Utah should be as bad as my record prediction will indicate, but I had a tough time picking games they should (or could) win. Playing both in-state rivals BYU and Utah State isn’t going to help; both those teams are probably better than the Utes. The team gets five conference home games, but two of those (Oregon State and Stanford) are pretty much guaranteed losses, as are the two road trips to Oregon and USC. It will be interesting to see what Utah does with highly-touted QB Travis Wilson, who played well at times in emergency situations last year when Jordan Wynn went down yet again with a serious injury. He does have a nice receiving corps to work with, particularly WR Dres Anderson and TE Jake Murphy. However, the most notable thing about this group might be that it’s unusually large – almost every receiver stands 6’0” or taller.

Unfortunately, the Utes lose 3 starting linemen and workhorse RB John White IV, which means a rushing offense that managed only 1,600 total yards last year will possibly be even worse in 2013. The defense won’t be able to pick up the slack very easily, either; three starters are gone in the secondary and the line loses the brilliant Star Lotulelei. Utah finished in the middle of the pack defensively last season, which is probably where it's headed again. That won’t be enough to cover for an offense that will experience some growing pains with young Wilson at the helm. A bowl is a possibility, but that’s about this squad’s ceiling.

Colorado

Some people thought Wazzu’s run of ineptitude in the last 2000’s could never be equaled. Sadly, Colorado is making fools of us all. The Golden Buffaloes (I refuse to drop the “Golden”! It’s so much cooler!) will likely be the league’s worst team again in 2013 after finishing last in scoring offense and defense the past year. The good news is that there are a lot of starters back. The bad news is that those guys aren’t all that good. If the defense can stay healthy, which hasn’t happened since Colorado joined the conference, it could be one of the more improved units in the country. LB Jon Major is the only major loss on that side of the ball, and the secondary (worst in the country in 2012) will be better. However, “improved” in this instance means moving into the range of respectability rather than 124^th.

It’s much the same situation on offense, despite a pretty solid group of WR’s. Paul Richardson, whose spring ACL tear last year robbed the Buffs of their only real weapon, is back. Along with Nelson Spruce and Tyler McCulloch, Colorado will field a nice 1-2-3 punch on the perimeter. However, there’s not a single proven QB on the roster to get them the ball, nor does the anemic ground game inspire confidence in the way of taking heat off the signal-caller. Even if the line is improved, which it should be, CU has a long way to go to make defenses sweat. In the end, that’s pretty much the story everywhere for this team: should be better, but not enough to make a difference in the loss column. When WSU had to dig its program out of depths, it first had to start losing games by 10 instead of 40. Colorado has yet to reach that point, but a good sign of progress would be if the team was doing that by the end of this season.

So that’s it for each team. As I said before, after poring over each school’s schedule, I worked out my predictions for the entire season, marking clear wins and losses to determine best- and worst-case scenarios. Finally, I made my picks for each of the questionable “swing” games to reach the records below. Here are the results of my exhaustive analysis in order of how I believe the teams will finish.

North

Oregon: 10-2 – 12-0 (projected 12-0)

Oregon State: 7-5 – 12-0 (projected 10-2)

Stanford: 6-6 – 12-0 (projected 10-2)

Washington: 4-8 – 10-2 (projected 8-4)

Washington State: 2-10 – 7-5 (projected 4-8)

California: 1-11 – 4-8 (projected 2-10)

South

USC: 7-6 – 13-0 (projected 11-2)

Arizona State: 4-8 – 12-0 (projected 9-3)

UCLA: 5-7 – 11-1 (projected 6-6)

Arizona: 4-8 – 10-2 (projected 7-5)

Utah: 1-11 – 6-6 (projected 2-10)

Colorado: 1-11 – 4-8 (projected 2-10)

Pac-12 Championship game: Oregon over USC

And there you have it. Let the games begin!

2013 Preview, Part II

Yesterday I ran down the most likely contenders for the BCS crown in 2013. Today, we go smaller with the individual conference champions. Because of the historical significance of conferences in college football, I firmly maintain that entrants in the College Football Playoff starting in 2014 should HAVE to be league champions to be eligible. But then the SEC couldn’t get two teams in, so… that’s a conversation for another time. Here are my predictions.

Conference Outlook

American Athletic

Projected Champion: Louisville

I wrote out the full name in case anyone needed reminding that the former Big East is now the AAC (not to be confused with the ACC, or the other AAC – the Appalachian Athletic Conference. Good job with the naming, guys). You might be under the impression that the downtrodden Big East will be just as bad as it has been in recent years, regardless of the facelift. In that case, you’d be wrong. It’ll be much worse! Since 2011 the league has lost flagship programs West Virginia, Syracuse and Pittsburgh, and the bleeding only continues in 2014 with Louisville and Rutgers. In response, the American adds UCF, Houston, SMU and Memphis this year along with Tulsa, Tulane and ECU in 2014 and Navy in 2015. It won’t be enough to keep the conference relevant, as the American loses its BCS bid after this season. The schools involved did a great job keeping the Big East together as long as they did following the initial defections of Virginia Tech, Miami (FL) and Boston College to the ACC. West Virginia stepped up and became the big-time program the league needed to stay afloat, while naysayers were held at bay with a 5-3 BCS bowl record. Unfortunately, now even the above-average teams are bailing, relegating the American to have-not status forevermore. It’s a shame, but that’s the consequence of greedy conference realignment.

Cincinnati, UCF and Rutgers may be decent this year, but there’s no way one of them is good enough to seriously challenge the Cardinals as they abandon this sinking ship. The increase in competition will be enough to submarine the hopes of even a good mid-major like newcomer Central Florida and I haven’t seen nearly enough out of Cincy or Rutgers (even in their close losses to UL last year) to expect them to have a chance. The rest of the conference is, quite frankly, garbage.

ACC

Projected Champion: Clemson over Miami (FL)

Tough call here in the Coastal Division. I’ve laid out my reasoning for Clemson over FSU in the Atlantic, where no one else should be able to challenge the Tigers and Seminoles. But the Coastal is a lot murkier. A case can be made for Miami (FL), Virginia Tech, North Carolina and even Georgia Tech. I’m going with the Hurricanes, despite a dangerous week two matchup with Florida that could serve to crush (or kick-start?) the season. Stephen Morris is a good QB and the ‘Canes return a bunch of starters from a team that tied for the division title last season, although they are at a disadvantage as the only one of the four contenders with Florida State on the schedule (Georgia Tech plays Clemson, and VT and Carolina miss them both).

I can’t trust erratic Hokies QB Logan Thomas, who was a complete mess last year. VT also plays at Georgia Tech and at Miami (FL). Also, there’s the question of whether the team will be able to mentally rebound from the week one shellacking in store from Alabama. North Carolina – which tied Miami (FL) for the Coastal lead in 2012 but was likewise ineligible for the postseason – is intriguing as a third option. Bryn Renner is also a very good QB, though I think the Tar Heels will miss RB Giovani Bernard and their departed linemen. As for Georgia Tech… we’ll know early. My Yellow Jackets open ACC play with North Carolina, Virginia Tech and (at) Miami (FL). The main reasons for pessimism? The defense is there but the offense looks potentially ugly.

Big Ten

Projected Champion: Ohio State over Michigan

As with the ACC, one half of this equation appears very simple while the other is quite difficult. Ohio State is the clear front-runner in the (mercifully) soon-to-be-renamed Leaders Division, with only minor threats from decent-but-not-great Wisconsin and Penn State squads. Meanwhile, over in the Legends we’ve got a complete mess. Michigan and Nebraska are the top teams, with Northwestern and Michigan State waiting in the wings. I like Michigan. Devin Gardner has the makings of the next great Wolverines QB and very little has been lost in true star power on either side of the ball. Denard Robinson is finally gone, but does anybody really think Big Blue will be the worse for it? More problematic is the loss of S Jordan Kovacs, who really anchored the secondary. Overall Michigan is the best team in the division, so my only hesitation comes when looking at the schedule. Unlike Nebraska, the Wolverines have to play Ohio State, but to offset this they do get the Cornhuskers at home.

Nebraska’s offense will once again be frightening, as the steadily improving Taylor Martinez returns to guide a talented and veteran offense. However, as good as the Huskers might be on that side of the ball, there’s the nagging issue of defense. Remember the Blackshirts unit that gave up 70 to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship and 45 to Georgia in the Capital One Bowl? Only four starters return. This group is young and unproven. I can’t pick them to beat Michigan. You’ll hear that Northwestern went 10-3 and should have won all three games they lost; which is true, but misleading, considering that the Wildcats missed Ohio State and Wisconsin and struggled against several lower-tier opponents. Their 2012 season was a bit of a mirage. As for MSU... well, time may prove me wrong, but I think the Spartans are actually getting too MUCH love, even coming off a 7-6 season. The defense is quite good, but the offense is just horrendous AND loses its only playmaker in RB Le’Veon Bell.

Big 12

Projected Champion: Texas

Oklahoma and Kansas State both lost senior QB’s, so the conference race looks like it’s down to the Longhorns and Oklahoma State. UT gets to host the Cowboys, which is one advantage, but there are other reasons to pick Texas as well. Consider, if you will, that last season the Longhorns’ D gave up an additional 100 yards per game than it did in 2011 yet was STILL better than OSU’s. UT’s defense should be back to form this year, but those numbers are pretty much par for the course for Okie State, who has pretty much just tried to outscore everybody the past six or seven seasons. Now, OSU should be very good and could very well beat Texas in Austin, but given the choice between a balanced team and one that only plays offense, I’ll take the former every time. Texas is also unquestionably deeper and more talented than the Cowboys, even though Mike Gundy (to whom Longhorns coach Mack Brown can’t hold a candle) has done a great job building up the program.

The rest of the league should once again fill out as, if not great, than at least above average. Oklahoma may be down but for the Sooners that means eight or nine wins instead of 11 or 12. K-State should take a step back, but TCU and Baylor are on the upswing, so the only true bottom-feeders ought to be Kansas and possibly Texas Tech (I believe in you, Iowa State!). The Big 12 is pretty solid from top to bottom and has made a statement by committing to nine league games. Given that the SEC’s additions have almost eliminated cross-divisional play, I would consider this conference the most difficult to navigate in the regular season.

Conference USA

Projected Champion: Tulsa over Marshall

The C-USA takes a step down this season, losing multiple teams to the American Athletic Conference. Because of six new additions, the league will actually play with 14 members in 2013, two more than last season. However, these new schools (Florida Atlantic, Florida International, North Texas, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech and Texas-San Antonio) all hail from conferences even lower on the ladder than the C-USA, and only Louisiana Tech has a hope of competing in the new surroundings. The contenders will come from the incumbents. Both divisions look to pretty much be two-team races: Marshall and ECU in the East, Tulsa and Rice in the West.

I think any of those four teams could win their division and the conference title, but I went with Tulsa and Marshall. Rice has gotten some buzz, but the biggest feather in the Owls’ er, helmet, is the 19 returning starters from 2012’s 7-6 squad. Tulsa returns just 10 starters but has been so much better over the past several years it’s hard for me to pick against them. The Golden Hurricane also get Rice at home. In the East, ECU tied for the division crown last year and returns a lot of starters on both sides, including receiver Justin Hardy, the league’s returning leader in touchdown catches (11). However, Marshall also returns a great deal of players and has the trump card in that regard: Thundering Herd QB Rakeem Cato passed for more than 4,000 yards and 37 TD’s last year and he’ll once again be throwing to the C-USA’s leaders in receptions (WR Tommy Shuler, 110). These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I give the advantage to Marshall because they get to host the Pirates.

MAC

Projected Champion: Bowling Green over Northern Illinois

Reaching for the upset here, as two-time defending champ NIU will be most everyone’s preseason pick. The league stubbornly continues its goofy 13-team rotation into 2013, but unlike the C-USA the MAC has actually managed some continuity in member schools. NIU reeled off 12 straight wins last year, including an epic double-overtime win over Kent State in the MAC Championship, to reach the Orange Bowl. They were promptly crushed by Florida State but that’s hardly the point; the Huskies were quite good. They return do-everything QB Jordan Lynch, who led the conference in rushing, rushing TD’s and passing efficiency. I think he’ll be enough to make up for the loss of seven defensive starters and propel the Huskies past Toledo in the West. Toledo is formidable again, returning not only QB Terrance Owens but virtually all its skill players from an exceptionally talented and balanced offensive attack, including RB David Fluellen and WR Bernard Reedy. Like the Huskies, the Rockets lose most of their defensive starters. I think NIU will once again win a close showdown between these two teams and otherwise roll through the MAC to the title game…

…Where they’ll be upset by Bowling Green. It’s hard to make a case for anyone else in the East Division; 2012 winner Kent State was actually outgained on the year despite winning 11 games and loses half its starters on both sides and Ohio, while pretty good, got somewhat exposed over the second half of last season. BGSU returns QB Matt Schilz (who should rebound from a rough 2012 and return to his 2011 form) and 10 starters overall on offense, but that’s not the reason I see the Falcons getting to the MAC title game and knocking off NIU. That would be the defense, which returns 9 starters from last year’s unit that was the best in the league by a huge margin, including first against the run, pass, in total yards and in scoring. Led by NFL prospect S “BooBoo” Gates, the Falcons will once again have the MAC on lockdown.

Mountain West

Projected Champion: Boise State over Fresno State

Man, Boise State was terrible last year. Remember how they lost at Michigan State in the opener and nobody ever heard from them again… what’s that? The Broncos went 11-2 and won the MWC, you say? Good heavens. Yes, despite breaking in a new QB and a dozen new starters, BSU led the conference in defense and continued its winning ways. Thanks to the collapse of the Big East, the MWC was able to retain Boise State and San Diego State and pull in two top WAC schools (Utah State and San Jose State) to form a 12-team league with divisions and a conference title game. This essentially makes the Mountain West the new WAC (R.I.P.)… but let’s roll with it.

It’s tough for me to take the Broncos over Utah State in the new Mountain Division because I really like Aggies’ QB Chuckie Keeton, but stepping up to a stronger conference will ultimately hurt USU, even with the sweetheart schedule they got their first year. Make no mistake, the MWC is quite good, almost without a doubt the top mid-major conference. Boise will be able to attest to that, as they play at West Division contenders Fresno State and San Diego State AND on the road against USU. It’s even tougher for me to pick the Broncos to beat Fresno in the title game. Fresno QB Derek Carr has become every bit the player his big brother was* and the Bulldogs return a lot of guys on both sides. However, it’s the caliber of the players lost that counts. S Philip Thomas was a consensus All-American, but he’s not even the most damaging graduation. That honor goes to RB Robbie Rouse, who shattered Fresno’s all-time rushing record and was one of the most important players in program history. I see this team getting past SDSU (who returns nine defensive starters but will be anemic offensively) but losing to Boise State.

*For the rubes, that’s former top overall pick in the NFL Draft David Carr (2002, Texans), who in 2001 helmed the first offense in college football history with a 4,000 yard passer, two 1,000 receivers, and a 1,000 yard rusher.

Pac-12

Projected Champion: Coming tomorrow

SEC

Projected Champion: Alabama over Georgia

I don’t think I need to waste space talking about how the SEC is really, really, really good. Alabama is the team to beat in the West, certainly, but LSU would be a favorite in most other conferences. Texas A&M, flawed though I believe them to be, ain’t bad. Ole Miss has even gotten a ton of buzz thanks to a sterling recruiting class and 19 returning starters. Mississippi State, which parlayed a cupcake schedule into an eight-win 2012, is probably headed for an ugly season, though Auburn and Arkansas will surely be better than the sloppy messes both resembled last year. And that’s just one division!

The East isn’t quite as loaded, but the three teams (Georgia, Florida and South Carolina) who won a combined 34 games last season should fight each other to the death again. While I foresee a slight drop-off from the Gators, UGA and Carolina should be very strong. Tennessee’s powerful offensive line should finally get the Volunteers back to respectability and Vanderbilt, though not great, won nine games in 2012. I explained how I feel about several of these teams in detail in my championship contenders section, but I can reiterate in short form. The East should come down to Georgia and South Carolina, while Alabama is the clear favorite in the West. Yes, this is the nation’s best conference. After what was a slightly down year for the league a year ago, I think this season will be much better, possibly the SEC’s best ever. That’s a scary thought.

Sun Belt

Projected Champion: Louisiana-Lafayette

The Sun Belt has gone through some upheaval of late, though not as much as some of its mid-major counterparts. However, as the de facto “lowest conference” on the ladder, conference realignment eventually did work its way down. As the ACC poached from the former Big East, so did the new American steal from Conference USA, which in turn snatched up the last remaining FBS-level schools it could find, located in the SBC. Interestingly, though, I don’t think the league will be much worse for it. FIU, FAU, North Texas and Middle Tennessee are out, but only FIU had a winning record in-conference over the past five years. Next year Western Kentucky leaves, but the Hilltoppers only recently moved up from FCS themselves. The core of the conference’s best teams – Arkansas State, ULL, Louisiana-Monroe and Troy – remains, and it will be bolstered by fast-rising new programs Georgia State and South Alabama and current FCS juggernauts Georgia Southern and Appalachian State (they’re baaaaaack!).

As for this season, there are a few solid contenders. I favor the delightfully named Ragin’ Cajuns, who return a decent amount of starters from last year’s second-place team along with the intriguing Terrance Broadway at QB. Broadway, who started his career at Houston, was once a highly touted prospect and could really make an impact in his first full season as a starter. ULL will have its work cut out; rival ULM also features a talented signal-caller in Kolton Browning, who caught the attention of the nation by completing 42 of 68 passes for more than 400 yards in the Warhawks’ opening-day upset of Arkansas. Western Kentucky is also dangerous: the only team to beat two-time champion Arkansas State last season, WKU rose to 5-1 (with the only loss at Alabama), before fumbling away a chance at a SBC title. The infamous Bobby Petrino is the Hilltoppers’ new head man, which adds another element to their story; regardless of his personal life, Petrino can certainly coach. This will be a fun race.

For the heck of it, this is how I’d rank the conferences in terms of overall strength going into 2013:

1) SEC

2) Big 12

2) Pac-12 

4) Big Ten 

5) ACC

6) Mountain West

7) American 

8) MAC

9) Conference USA

10) Sun Belt

But who knows how it will play out during the season? I’m interested to see if the Big 12 or Pac-12 can firmly take the reins as the second-best league, as neither could claim a clear advantage at the end of 2012. The middle of the Big 12 had more depth, but the top of the Pac-12 was stronger (as seen in Oregon’s thrashing of Kansas State). The Big 12 may not be significantly better this year, but it certainly shouldn’t be any worse. You’ll have to wait until tomorrow to hear about the Pac-12.

And so it begins...

In the immortal words of Angus Young… I’ve been too long, I’m glad to be back. And not a moment too soon. The strange emotional dichotomy that is the end of summer and start of football season will raise its head again in a couple short weeks. While I mourn the loss of all things sweet and summery, the advent of a new year of football goodness tends to soften the blow.

Football’s return does seem to appropriately parallel the bittersweet feeling of the dying season, which, given the nature of the sport, is rather fitting. No other game walks such a precarious line between euphoria and heartbreak in each moment, where a matter of inches here or a few tenths of a second there can make or break a play, a game, a season (Notre Dame’s 2012 campaign attests to that). This season will no doubt feature teams scratching and clawing once again for a chance at the ultimate prize. As Young’s band AC/DC so memorably put it, “It’s a Long Way to the Top (Unless You’re Alabama)”.

Despite a relatively uneventful offseason there’s still much to recap. What’s happened/happening in college football in 2013? Well, there’s Alabama, gearing up for a threepeat (very likely); the Big East officially becoming irrelevant the American Athletic Conference (depressing); Oregon escaping the NCAA with naught but a cheeky smack on the bum (inevitable); Urban Meyer facing heat for his inability to stop Aaron Hernandez from murdering people (somewhat unfair), and potentially a mini-Renaissance in the ACC (about time). With the smoke clearing, only a short time remains until the 2013 season kicks off. We’ve got the same big questions as usual:

1) Who are the National title contenders? 

2) Who will win each conference?

3) Who will win the Heisman Trophy?

4) Which teams will surprise/disappoint?

All these questions and more will be answered in my ensuing posts, though I will refrain from listing top Heisman candidates until at least three weeks into September, when games have actually been played. A year ago Matt Barkley of USC was at the top of everyone’s preseason Heisman list, and had the award been given out in September West Virginia’s Geno Smith would have won in a landslide. Perhaps, not unlike the top 25, it’s better to see some on-field results before making wild predictions.

As I stated last year, it’s been proved that the true BCS Championship contenders hail from a rather small group. Factoring in talent, depth, strength of schedule and luck, between eight and 15 teams every year have a legitimate shot to wind up with the crystal football. My aim is not to predict a winner (because that’s usually ridiculous) but to predict which teams will fall into that special group this year. The following is my list.

Alabama

Need any more be said? Three of the last four (including the past two) titles, a threepeat looming on the horizon and the Saban Train rolls on. The Crimson Tide are overwhelmingly the most talented team in the country and they’re led by one of the best recruiters and coaches in the game. Bama is doing what USC did in the 2000’s, but they’re actually winning titles every year AND doing so in a thriving conference, unlike the down Pac-10 SC dominated. This program is on the verge of an historic run. The SEC is tough, sure, but the schedule this season is pretty tame. The problem with adding too many teams to a league is that you prevent your members from actually, you know, playing each other. Outside of a trip to College Station and a home date with LSU, Alabama will be heavily favored in every contest.

Quarterback A.J. McCarron has officially completed his metamorphosis from game manager to difference-maker, and while he’ll never be confused with some of college football’s historically great QB’s, he has a chance to own something they don’t: three rings. Remember my handwringing last year about the inexperience at the skill positions? All those guys stepped in and produced like veterans… and they’re all back. The line will probably take a minor step back with the loss of three All-Americans, but the players filling those holes are future stars themselves. Unlike several of their conference peers, the Tide also return most everyone on defense, as opposed to last season when they had to break in eight new starters. There are essentially no weaknesses on this team.

I don’t officially predict a BCS Champ, but the smart money is on the Tide.

Oregon

The Ducks’ position would have been stronger had Chip Kelly returned, but a very manageable schedule and a massive influx of young talent over the past two years keeps the team here. While there are still legitimate questions about whether UO’s attack can beat elite (read: SEC) defenses, Alabama’s loss to Texas A&M last season should serve as evidence enough that even great defenses can get flummoxed by the spread. The Pac-12 continues to improve, but Stanford is still the only conference foe capable of staying within a whiff of Oregon.

The biggest potential problem area for the Ducks is linebacker, where they graduated three of the schools’ all-time greats. Those losses, however, should be offset by exceptional depth (and talent) at the other two levels of the defense. The line has a fortuitous mix of experienced seniors and skilled underclassmen, while the secondary might be the best in the country. Offensively only three of the top six linemen return and RB Kenjon Barner is gone, but considering the team’s recent history with rushers it’s hard to imagine the next guy in (Byron Marshall) won’t be very productive as well.

Increased national exposure greatly boosted Oregon’s profile and recruiting during the Chip Kelly era. Nitpicking aside, this team can and should win a lot of games. The roster is honestly more talented than it was in 2010, when the Ducks played in the title game. That makes UO a contender.

Ohio State

The Buckeyes are an interesting case. On the one hand, their unblemished 2012 campaign was less-than-meets-the-eye: OSU beat a lot of truly awful teams in unquestionably the worst Big Ten in history… and still won five of eight league games by a touchdown or less. By my count (and I watched Ohio State quite a lot), OSU should have lost to: a terrible Cal team, Michigan State, Indiana, Purdue and possibly Wisconsin and Michigan. The best win was the blowout of Nebraska, and we saw how much that was worth when the Cornhuskers gave up 115 points in their final two games.

But have you SEEN this schedule? Who is possibly going to beat this team? Who’s even going to challenge them? Assuming OSU is roughly as good as last season – reasonable despite a few key losses on defense – there’s simply nobody in the conference capable of matching the Buckeyes’ talent. Wisconsin and Penn State are at home, with the only slightly risky trips at Michigan and Northwestern. The non-league games, all in September, are against some serious patsies and will only serve as tune-ups. Even if you’re not totally sold on QB Braxton Miller (for the record, I’m not), you’ll be hard-pressed to find a contest on the schedule where OSU won’t be favored.

This ain’t your father’s Big Ten, not by a long shot. The fact is, OSU remains very good and very well coached. In this new-era, watered-down Big Ten, that will probably be enough to go undefeated. Whether that should earn a spot in the BCS Championship is a different question.

Georgia

I’m finally ready to view UGA as a true contender after a strong showing in the postseason last year. Aaron Murray is probably the best QB in the SEC, the ground game will be powered by a talented duo of sophomore backs and the entire O-line returns. That’s a recipe for a whole lot of success. In fact, this might end up as the best offense in the conference. Considering some fans were grumbling before last season that coach Mark Richt should be on the hot seat, that’s not too shabby.

There are questions on the other side of the ball. The Bulldogs lose their top four tacklers from 2013, including all-everything linebackers Jarvis Jones and Alec Ogletree AND both safeties. Normally, I’d say that was cause enough to downgrade UGA from “true contender” status. However, I’m going against my better instincts and predicting the newcomers will be adequate enough – if not quite as good – to keep this squad in contention. It’s a call that may come back to haunt me, but I think this squad has earned it.

I wouldn’t pick Georgia to beat Alabama, but I don’t have to make that big a leap to say this team will be very good. Fortunately, we’ll know quite early: UGA opens at Clemson and plays South Carolina in Week 2. Nasty.

Clemson

Speaking of… the Tigers lose playmakers Andre Ellington and DeAndre Hopkins, but otherwise return a great deal from their explosive offense. Returning nine of 10 contributing linemen should help QB Tajh Boyd quite a lot as the Heisman candidate prepares his NFL credentials. Boyd has become a complete player, which should negate some of the personnel losses, and hey, he’s still got the crazy-good Sammy Watkins at wideout.

More important, though, is the talent returning on defense. There’s some inexperience in the secondary, but more than a dozen contributing players return in the front seven, which should provide Clemson with some much-needed depth. The Tigers have rumbled through the ACC the past two seasons, but outside of the comeback win over LSU in their bowl last year have faceplanted in non-league play. With these defensive credentials, those days will hopefully be a thing of the past.

As for the schedule… getting Georgia at home in the opener is a huge coup… IF the Tigers can pull off the upset. Win that game and CU will be off and running toward a BCS appearance. FSU also has to travel to Death Valley, so if Clemson can finally stop embarrassing itself against rival South Carolina in the season finale, a special year could be in store.

Louisville

This is a bit of cop-out, in the sense that I don’t think Louisville is in any way on par with the aforementioned teams. However, as last year’s Sugar Bowl showed, they are pretty good, and much more notably, their schedule is a joke. The Cardinals don’t play a conference game until October, likely won’t face a single top-25 team and have an unusual three byes. I questioned whether anyone on Ohio State’s schedule could possibly beat the Buckeyes… I now repeat the question for Louisville, only 10 times louder. Rutgers? Cincinnati? I mean, come on. Three-quarters of the original Big East has flown the coop and no amount of puffed-up former mid-major popinjays raised to BCS status can save the conference.

Still, a team should not wholly be judged by its league (we sure didn’t when Miami (FL) was winning titles) and the fact remains that UL is decent. Better than decent, if you go by the thrashing they laid on Florida in the Sugar Bowl. QB Teddy Bridgewater is a program-changer on the level of Robert Griffin III and Andrew Luck, even if his program wasn’t in as dire of straits as those players’ were. His offense’s losses were minor enough that I doubt the Cardinals will miss a beat, plus there’s those 10 returning starters on D that should push this team over the top.

Louisville is a quality team, to be sure – a BCS-level team playing in a decidedly non-BCS conference. It’s just frustrating that they could conceivably not face a ranked opponent until the BCS Championship.

That’s it for the teams I honestly think can win the title. Here’s the rest of the (slightly) more flawed contenders whose names will be bandied about in the media, but are unlikely to actually win the Big Game without help.

Stanford

Stanford’s gotten quite a bit of preseason love. The general theory is that the Cardinal, fresh off a Pac-12 Championship and Rose Bowl victory, can only improve with the superior Kevin Hogan at QB instead of the awful, departed Josh Nunes. It is true that the defense should once again be formidable, as only Chase Thomas and Terrence Brown graduate from 2012’s excellent unit. However, far too little is being made of the significant personnel losses on offense. Stepfan Taylor accounted for 322 of the 409 carries by Stanford’s so-called running back “committee” last year, which either indicates that Cardinal football is the least democratic organization in sports or that someone in Palo Alto doesn’t know what the word “committee” means.

That’s before we even get to the passing game. You know what hurts the development of a young QB like Hogan? Losing receivers who accounted for 80 percent of your receptions and 85 percent of your yards through the air. Oh, and all but a single TD catch. For two years the media beat into fans’ heads that Stanford’s tight ends were the best in the game. Well, now they’ve lost all three members of that talented trio Andrew Luck got to work with. How is the team going to seamlessly move on from that? It’s a fallacy that has yet to be addressed by any sports outlet. No matter how great the offensive line is (and it’s going to be a doozy), you need the skill players to match. This isn’t Oregon or USC, but there still need to be some guys who can make a defense pay. At the start of the 2013 season zero players on Stanford’s roster fit that description.

Because of the defense, Stanford will be in every game. But calling for them to defend their conference title or play for a BCS championship is wildly premature until the team proves it can consistently score on defenses as good as its own.

LSU

In LSU’s defense, the Tigers were middling offensively last season and still lost just three games by a total of 12 points. Les Miles, regardless of his questionable game-management skills, is playing the long game, folks. He may not have the rings like Nick Saban (ok, he’s got one, but he lucked into it with Saban’s players), but he’s built his team the same way: through the lines and defense. The list of highly-touted offensive recruits who have staggered through uninspiring Tiger careers continues to grow, yet LSU keeps winning, to the tune of 10 games a year since Miles took over. That’s directly attributable to the consistent culture of the program. LSU will run the ball. LSU will play brutal defense. Sometimes, LSU will pass a little bit. Rinse, repeat. It’s a grueling, aggravating style that nevertheless creates wins.

The Tigers lose a couple of their talented backs this season, but should keep on rolling in the ground game thanks to very good players up front and a commitment to sharing the load that last year produced more than 2000 yards and 20 TD’s from a combination of five different backs (THIS is what a “committee” looks like, Stanford). QB Zach Mettenberger, like seemingly every LSU signal-caller, was underwhelming in 2012, but I think this may finally be the year the Tigers kick their passing game into gear. Every significant contributing receiver returns, which should really make this offense imposing for the first time in years.

So why isn’t LSU a title contender, if they’re adding a good offense to an elite D? Well, about that defense… here are some of the guys lost from last year: Bennie Logan. Sam Montgomery. Barkevious Mingo. Eric Reid. Kevin Minter. Those aren’t merely household names in Baton Rouge, those are national household names. Unless LSU repeats what Alabama did last season, the defense has to take a step back.

Texas A&M

Hoo boy. I’ll restrict my comments on the Aggies to strictly on-field material until later. Safe to say, I could talk about aTm for a while. Florida, Georgia and South Carolina are conspicuously absent from the schedule, which is a major boost, as are the four home non-league games against patsies. Based on that alone, A&M should get to seven or eight wins. However, there are some significant questions about this team as well. How will the defense – already one of the weaker SEC units, giving up nearly 400 yards a game – fare after losing four of its top six tacklers? What about the offensive line losing the NFL’s second overall pick, left tackle Luke Joeckel? What if the Aggies’ surprising success last year was partially due to SEC teams being unfamiliar with them?

A&M also lost four of its top six receivers, including the most reliable option in Ryan Swope. Those kind of losses are tough for a young QB. As with Stanford, it’s really nice when an inexperienced QB can come in and take control of an offense that already has successful moving parts, but it’s a different story when the veteran weapons leave and the QB has to be the ultimate playmaker. Johnny Manziel certainly made a lot of plays last season, but outside of a great first quarter against Alabama he didn’t do them against any particularly strong defenses. LSU and Florida both shut down the Aggies’ attack. Plus, SEC coaches now have a whole year of film to break down to stop this spread.

None of this is to say that aTm can’t be a quality team in 2013. They’re certainly the biggest mystery on this list, though. I see more than a few parallels with this squad to last year’s USC team, another offensive juggernaut with an average defense who nobody thought could be stopped. Never, ever assume that an offense can just outscore everyone. Not a single BCS title has been won that way.

FSU

Florida State’s revival under Jimbo Fisher should continue into 2013. The Seminoles have gone 31-10 in three years under Fisher after four underwhelming years to end the Bobby Bowden era, culminating in last season’s ACC championship and Orange Bowl win. While they do lose QB E.J. Manuel, who finally realized his potential in 2012, the rest of the offense returns pretty much intact. The line gets four starters back, while all but three of the backs and receivers return. The secondary should also be one of the best in the nation. The schedule is typically ACC-soft: only visits to Clemson and rival Florida should pose too much of a threat.

However, the front seven, and particularly the front line, were ravaged by graduation and the draft. Measuring up to that legacy is far too much to ask, even for the talented young players FSU has. Fortunately, the schedule won’t demand that they do so all the time, but merely being adequate isn’t good enough if this team has BCS aspirations. The Seminoles will need to defend consistently and score consistently. Even with the talent returning offensively, a first-year (likely freshman) QB is a red flag.

FSU should be good again, but I don’t foresee another ACC title. Clemson is too good and even a slight rebuilding year will be enough to allow the Tigers to take the conference back… at least for a season.

Texas

Now, UT is an interesting case. I’ve been calling for Texas to win the Big 12 in 2013 for about a year and a half. I’m not about to change my prediction now. This has clearly been the season the program was building toward ever since hitting “rock bottom” in 2010 with a 5-7 record in the first year A.C. (After Colt McCoy). By the way, when 5-7 is rock bottom, you know your team has high expectations. Still, three years is a very long time for an elite program to rebuild, which sort of underscores the point I’m about to make: Texas is not currently an elite program. The Longhorns remain an elite program in theory, with the best recruiting base and as the America’s most popular college team. With a merely average coach and consistent underachievement on the field, though, it’s hard to make the case for UT being elite right now.

With that said, this might be the year this all changes and the Longhorns return to the uppermost tier of college football. Yes, the defense loses stars Kenny Vaccaro and Alex Okafor, and the offense will undoubtedly miss the outrageously fast Marquise Goodwin. However, when you talk about returning firepower, Texas is among the nation’s most impressive teams. 10 offensive starters are back, including the entire offensive line. Other than Vaccaro and Okafor, the whole starting D returns, along with every important backup. This is a team built to win now and they’ve got the schedule to do it. Dicey non-league games against Ole Miss and at BYU are offset by a strangely cushy Big 12 sked, as three of UT’s five road conference games take place in the state of Texas (at TCU, at Baylor and the neutral site Oklahoma game in Dallas). Oklahoma State, who may end up as the Longhorns’ biggest threat, has to come to Austin.

However, I’ve still got reservations about this team, as seen by their inclusion on this list. David Ash and Case McCoy (Colt’s little bro!) make up a decent 1-2 punch at the QB position, but neither has set the world on fire the past couple of years (to put it lightly). The starter (Ash?) will need to be a difference-maker, not just a game manager. Texas will also be dealing with the favorite role after getting to play under the radar since 2010. Ultimately, despite their talent, I see the Longhorns dropping a game or two.

Florida

The Gators were one meltdown against Georgia from playing in the SEC Championship, yet it’s hard to feel optimistic about a team that last season couldn’t top 2,000 total yards passing and outgained its opponents by an average of less than 50 yards per game. How did Florida win 11 games? Well, they shouldn’t have. Despite a superb defense, the Gators were outgained in yards, first downs or both in half their contests. They benefitted from a sizable positive turnover margin, including a high number of what I deem “critical turnovers” by their opponents. Critical turnovers can be defined as turnovers deep in a team’s own territory, or in crucial situations like goal-to-go downs or – perhaps worst of all – on special teams. More on critical turnovers and mistakes in a future post.

Pundits seem to believe the exceedingly mediocre Jeff Driskel will dramatically improve on his 2012 numbers with a solid outing at QB this fall. Ok, I’ll play along. Let’s say Driskel does in fact get a lot better with another year in the offense. Who’s he going to turn to to make plays? This is Florida, so athletic ability is always in stock, but a whole lot of receivers just left Gainesville. Four of the top six, in fact, including Jordan Reed and his team-leading 45 catches and 559 yards. So perhaps Driskel will lean on the running game? Oh wait, RB Mike Gillislee is gone too, so the team’s leading returning rusher is, in fact, Driskel himself with a mighty 413 yards.

Well, at least the Gators have their great defense to fall back on, right? …I’ve got some bad news on that front, too. UF lost a ton of playmakers on that side of the ball: five of the top six tacklers, plus oft-injured star LB Jelani Jenkins. There’s no way this D will be as good in 2013. Toss in games against South Carolina, Georgia, LSU and rival FSU, and the writing on the wall becomes rather clear.

South Carolina

I’m much more optimistic about South Carolina than Florida, but there are still a few issues that will prevent the Gamecocks from reaching upper-elite status. Connor Shaw is more consistent and simply better than Driskel, if perhaps not quite the same athlete. Though Shaw’s numbers (and injury history) don’t awe, he’s more than good enough to win a championship at this level. Additionally, playing without RB Marcus Lattimore for significant chunks of the past two seasons should have softened the blow of losing him to the NFL. Enough of the receiving core also returns to ensure the passing game will be a threat and just one starting lineman from 2012 is gone.

Like LSU and Florida, though, there are questions about the defense. DE Jadeveon Clowney is fantastic, yes, but what about the losses in the back seven? S D.J. Swearinger is gone, along with talented LB’s Shaq Wilson, Reginald Bowens and DeVonte Holloman. There are only five returning defensive starters; that’s a lot of production to make up. Now, the schedule does favor the Gamecocks. If they can get by Georgia (in Athens) in week two, look out: the remaining road trips are cakewalks and Carolina gets its last four opponents at home. However, I don’t see this team beating UGA. Not only is the game on the road, the Bulldogs will be out for blood after last season’s 35-7 pasting (not to mention that Georgia’s seniors have never tasted victory against SC).

South Carolina should be very good, but Georgia is better and Alabama is certainly better. Even with a couple of gimmes, the SEC is rough. While this team may match 2012’s 11-win total, I think they’ll fall short of the ultimate BCS prize.

So there’s the group of teams that will play for, and win, the national championship. Who will it be? I say Alabama, but I’ve been wrong before. Once. Tomorrow’s post will include my predictions for each conference.