BCS Championship (and more!)

All I have to say is, bowl season is a wacky time. I saw pretty much what I expected in the Orange Bowl when Florida State methodically wore down Northern Illinois. The ensuing night, however, I got the exact opposite of my pregame prediction in the Sugar Bowl. Louisville absolutely crushed Florida, which, when combined with LSU’s earlier loss to Clemson, threw some doubt into the SEC’s bulletproof image. Texas A&M’s stampeding win over Oklahoma helped fix that a little, but Alabama will need to handily beat Notre Dame – which they’re very capable of doing – to fully restore the league’s name.

In other news, the Pac-12 escaped bowl season with a 4-4 record after winning its final two (and most important) games, the Rose and Fiesta. However, there’s no hiding how overrated the conference looked in the postseason. All of the good will built up from its strong non-league performance is gone, and now the Pac-12 will need a repeat of that showing in 2013 to once again garner national respect. While Oregon easily beating Kansas State was important, it won’t go nearly far enough to help the entire conference.

There are only three games left, one each day until Monday’s BCS Championship. As always, they are rated on a 1-5 scale and listed in Pacific time.

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh (6-6) vs. Ole Miss (6-6)

January 5, 10:00 a.m.

Actively shun this game. The worst trend of the bowl explosion – even worse than the newer bowls butting in on the New Year’s Day party – has been the addition of horrendous games like this between the title game and the rest of the BCS bowls. What do these two .500 teams, neither of which deserves to be in the postseason, get out of playing this game? At the very least, these bowls should be played in the first week to get them out of the way. Anyway, Pitt and Ole Miss are a pair of teams who both had a losing record in conference play and have zero positive or interesting characteristics whatsoever. The Panthers’ record was a product less of ineptitude and more of inconsistency. The team alternated two wins and two losses all season long, upsetting Rutgers and Virginia Tech but losing to Youngstown State. Pitt’s saving grace was its defense, which gave up only 20 points a game. Ole Miss gave up a full touchdown more but was also more productive offensively. I’d say the outcome of this game depends on which Panthers team shows up. If it’s good Pitt, the Rebels will be in trouble. If not, it could go either way. I’ll bet on that happening and take Pittsburgh.

Watchability: 1. Probably doesn’t deserve that.

GoDaddy.com Bowl

Kent State (11-2) vs. Arkansas State (9-3)

January 6, 6:00 p.m.

This is a clash of styles. Kent State is a bunch of old-fashioned grinders with an opportunistic defense, while Arkie State looks to spread you out and go. The Golden Flashes are feeling a bit of a letdown following the double-overtime loss to NIU in the MAC Championship that cost them a spot in the Orange Bowl. Whether that carries over to the actual game will be important. The Red Wolves were shocked in their first Sun Belt game but reeled off seven straight to end the year as repeat conference champions.

 Despite playing in a stronger conference (the MAC) and achieving a better record, I’m not confident in Kent State here. For how many turnovers their defense forces the Flashes aren’t very stout yardage-wise and they certainly don’t have the weapons to come back if they fall behind. This is a team that needs to play in front. Arkansas State, meanwhile, has a solid quarterback in Ryan Aplin who has both talented receivers to throw to and a good running back to hand off to in David Oku. The Red Wolves will win this game.

Watchability: 3. The extreme differences in scheme make this an interesting matchup.

BCS National Championship

Alabama (12-1) vs. Notre Dame (12-0)

January 7, 5:30 p.m.

Finally, here we are. It was a strange and almost unbelievable last few months to get to this point, but that seems to be becoming the norm in college football. This is a dream matchup from a media perspective, though from an actual football point of view it may end it up somewhat lacking. You’ve heard the adage “Defense wins championships”? Nobody will argue that point this year. Notre Dame features the nation’s number one scoring defense. Alabama is second. Both teams needed their defenses to carry them, because their offenses are pedestrian. The statistical measure of the offenses, though, fails to tell the whole story. ‘Bama will be favored because there are actually several young but talented players at the skill positions (not to mention likely the best offensive line in the country). Amari Cooper is a future star at wideout, while both T.J. Yeldon and the dependable Eddie Lacy rushed for 1,000 yards. The Fighting Irish have less to work with; Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick are good slotback-type guys, but neither is capable of carrying an offense. Notre Dame’s best weapon is end Tyler Eifert. He’s a great one, but offenses who rely on their tight end as their biggest playmaker eventually find out that their inability to stretch a defense vertically is a problem. Just ask Stanford. The most important position against these strong defenses is QB and the Crimson Tide have the edge there as well. A.J. McCarron, much like his predecessor Greg McElroy, has slowly transformed from a neutrino into a positron (go with it). He came of age in last year’s BCS Championship against LSU, has improved from his simple caretaker days and is now capable of winning a game rather than only managing. Notre Dame’s Everett Golson is the opposite. A bit of an enigma and still just a sophomore, he managed to finagle 12 wins out of the Irish’s schedule this year (though at times he left the game for senior Tommy Rees). He’s a talented athlete but a mediocre passer. For ND to have any chance he will need to have a great, efficient game.

I don’t see it happening. Alabama is once again loaded with top-tier defensive players who will make it to the next level. It would be astonishing if a Nick Saban-coached team allowed a guy like Golson to run around and win the game. The Irish don’t have the receivers to pressure ‘Bama on the edge, which will allow the Tide to mercilessly attack the run game (which isn’t even that good). Notre Dame will try to do the same, but Alabama is better offensively and will eventually score. Building a lead, they’ll be able to do what they do best: run people over inside. Once trailing, the Irish will be unable to crack the ‘Bama D by repeatedly passing. The offense isn’t good enough or fast enough to make up a big deficit. Notre Dame found itself down big in the second half only once this season and it took a terrible penalty to bail them out of it. They’re not used to playing from behind and they’re not equipped to do it. Alabama wins and covers.

Watchability: 5. The offenses could be hard on the eyes, but the defenses are very good.

That’s it for 2012. I plan to return once more with some final thoughts and observations. When the bowls end I’ll be here, as I always am. The countdown to the playoff starts in three days!