Last blog ever?

We’re off to a wonderful start to the bowl season, which is exciting given the hit-or-miss nature of the postseason. I managed to call the first two games correctly, though it was due to a minor miracle on Arizona’s part. How Nevada managed to blow a 45-28 fourth-quarter lead is beyond me. The second game in the schedule couldn’t possibly have hoped to be as thrilling and any chances of it happening went out the window when Toledo’s offense was cut down with injuries. Still, an entertaining start.

The bowl slate continues at a snail’s pace until the end of next week, when the majority of the games take place. For the non-discerning viewer, there’s probably very little of value here until after Christmas. Few BCS-conference teams play, and the ones that do are either not marquee names or of average quality. This is the first bad stretch of the bowls, when it is proved that simply far too many of them exist. For the record, the second bad stretch is on January 1^st during the awful glut of New Year’s Day games that now exist.

Here are the next week’s games through Friday. I used the same format as last week, with all times Pacific and the potential quality of the contest on a scale of 1-5.

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl

East Carolina (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette (8-4)

December 22, 9:00 a.m.

This is the first truly bad bowl. Neither of these teams notched a single above-average win all season, though ULL came close with a blown lead that should have gone down as a win over Florida. In typical Sun Belt fashion, the Ragin’ Cajuns feature a dual-threat at quarterback and a spread offense. ECU will be ready for that, as the Pirates have been an Air Raid school for a few seasons. There’s nothing particularly noteworthy about these teams, which makes it hard to pick a winner. Both offensive and defensive units are average and there are no household names at any of the skill positions. Though ULL was impressive down the stretch, it’s almost always a good idea to pick against the Sun Belt. ECU has been a postseason regular of late, playing in 5 straight bowls until last year. ULL just played in its first bowl in 2011. I’ll take the Pirates.

Watchability: 1. Bad, bad, bad.

MAACO Bowl Las Vegas

Washington (7-5) vs. Boise State (10-2)

December 22, 12:30 p.m.

While a Washington loss would still equal last year’s record, Huskies fans have to be feeling disappointed about the progress, or lack thereof, made by the program this season. After upsetting Oregon State, UW was positioned to finished 8-4 and earn at least a Holiday Bowl berth. Instead, they lost to WSU in a terrible Apple Cup collapse and fell all the way to Vegas. To make matters worse, they get Boise State, the seminal mid-major and a team very used to beating Pac-12 teams. While this is undoubtedly the worst Broncos team in five years there’s still a lot of talent on the roster, and BSU remains one of the most impeccably coached teams in college football. Aside from all-world tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Huskies QB Keith Price has little in the way of elite playmakers to challenge the stingy Boise defense, which gives up fewer than 15 points a game. The Broncos’ offense isn’t what it was under Kellen Moore, but it will do enough to win this game.

Watchability: 3. UW isn’t must-see TV right now and neither is BSU.

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl

Fresno State (9-3) vs. SMU (6-6)

December 24, 5:00 p.m.

Not a whole lot of intrigue in this one either. Fresno State is a much better team than SMU and should win handily, unless the Bulldogs suffer from a case of extreme apathy. SMU performed well in Conference USA play but was soundly defeated in its nonleague games against FBS opponents. After a blowout loss to Oregon, Fresno lost only twice more on the season by a total of eleven points. What’s more, this is clearly the worst Mustangs team since June Jones arrived in Dallas, with a middling offense and a slow-footed D. Fresno features a talented offensive group led by seniors Derek Carr (QB) and Robbie Rouse (RB), but is also in the top 30 nationally in scoring defense. The Bulldogs were a better team in a better conference in 2012. They’re even used to playing in Hawai’i against their traditional league foe, whereas SMU could be looking at this trip like a holiday.

Watchability: 2. You’ll see some offense and Rouse is reason enough to tune in for a while.

Little Caesars Bowl

Western Kentucky (7-5) vs. Central Michigan (6-6)

December 26, 4:30 p.m.

Although the participants here are shaky at best, there are actually a fair amount of storylines going into this game. For one, which BCS conference has the worst bottom-feeders? Both these teams beat a bad AQ-school (WKU over Kentucky and CMU over Iowa). Also, which team will show on either side? It was a tale of two seasons for the Hilltoppers and Chippewas. CMU started 2-5 and needed to win four of five to become bowl-eligible. WKU looked poised to win the Sun Belt at 6-2 after an upset over defending (and eventual repeat) champion Arkansas State, then dropped three straight to start November. If the Hilltoppers squad from the first two months of the season shows up, this will be a blowout. However, recent results indicate that CMU is on the upswing. I see this as potentially a very good game. It’s dangerous to bank on a team fixing its problems in the bowl layoff, but I’m going to go with Western Kentucky.

Watchability: 2. I’m interested in the SEC/Big 10 debate, but this isn’t a high-quality game.

Military Bowl

San Jose State (10-2) vs. Bowling Green (8-4)

December 27, 12:00 p.m.

A very interesting matchup. San Jose State doubled its win total from last year and became a passing juggernaut in 2012, whereas BGSU went defensive to get back into the postseason for the first time in three seasons. SJSU’s David Fales has been a magnificent maestro this year and will pass the 4,000 yard mark through the air during this game. His top target Noel Grigsby is one of the best non-BCS receivers. Yet the Spartans have performed poorly on the ground and despite good showings in their two losses (to conference champions Stanford and Utah State) don’t have a great defense. BGSU’s offense is merely average, but the Falcons rank ninth in the country in scoring defense. After losing three of four to start the season, the team went 7-1 the rest of the way, losing by only seven to division winner and MAC runner-up Kent State. Bowling Green will also have an advantage because SJSU just lost coach Mike MacIntyre to Colorado. That never bodes well in bowls. It would be an upset, but I’ll go with the Falcons in this game. I think the team’s hot finish and the uncertainly around the Spartans’ program will put BGSU over the top.

Watchability: 3. These are a pair of decent mid-majors.

Belk Bowl

Cincinnati (9-3) vs. Duke (6-6)

December 27, 3:30 p.m.

Oh, poor Duke. I like a good underdog story as much as the next person, but this is going to be ugly. Cincinnati s far from a great team, but the Bearcats aren’t exactly inept either. Even though the team was inconsistent on both sides and prone to mental mistakes, they still went 9-3 and nearly won the Big East. All three losses came by a touchdown or less. Now, Butch Jones did just leave to go coach Tennessee. But I very much doubt that will be enough for a Duke team that is absolutely in shambles. After a 6-2 start, the Blue Devils got hammered in four straight contests to end the year, putting a damper on the celebration about being bowl-eligible for the first time since 1994. The Dukies can’t run the ball well or stop anyone from scoring, while Cincy boasts a defense allowing just 17 points a game. This has the potential to get out of hand in a hurry.

Watchability: 1. This will be a bad decision for anyone with a weak stomach.

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl

Baylor (7-5) vs. UCLA (9-4)

December 27, 6:45 p.m.

The Bears hit the Holiday hoping for an encore performance of the program’s crowning achievement, a 67-56 win over Washington last year in the Alamo Bowl. After last season’s embarrassing 6-8 finish, UCLA would have just been happy with a winning record. Instead, they nearly won the Pac-12. Sadly, losing the conference title game dropped the Bruins two bowls all the way to San Diego, but that’s probably a good thing for their notoriously wimpy fans. Baylor is essentially a carbon copy of last year’s squad, with a terrifying offense and a terrifyingly bad defense. Despite that, they managed to win their final three games, including a stunning blowout of then-top-ranked Kansas State. Both teams run an up-tempo version of the spread and have talented backs to make use of all aspects of their respective schemes. The QB’s (Nick Florence of Baylor and Brett Hundley of UCLA) are dynamic in their own right, making these offenses true dual-threats. However, the Bruins are more balanced in what they do offensively – if not as explosive – and play far superior defense. The Bears won’t be able to score at will like they did against UW last year and, barring turnovers, they will give up scores like they did last year. UCLA wins this one.

Watchability: 4. Offense, offense, offense. Hope you like touchdowns,

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl

Ohio (8-4) vs. Louisiana-Monroe (8-4)

December 28, 11:00 a.m.

The who-fell-further bowl. Both Ohio and ULM started off the year in blistering fashion, going a combined 13-3 before Halloween with wins over Penn State (Ohio) and Arkansas (ULM). But from that point on they combined for just three wins, dropping like stones from their respective conference races. Who can rebound better in the Independence Bowl? The teams are opposites on offense, with the Bobcats favoring the ground game and the Warhawks choosing to air it out. They both run a little option, but neither is particularly proficient on that side of the ball. That’s actually the good news, because both defenses are mediocre. With apologies to Ohio’s talented RB Beau Blankenship, ULM QB Kolton Browning is the best player in this game, which would lead me to favor the Warhawks here. However, I believe in the MAC and noticed that all three of the Bobcats’ season-ending losses came to quality teams. My general rule of going against the Sun Belt seems in play for this contest. The Bobcats will win.

Watchability: 2. There will probably be touchdowns, but neither team is that good.

Russell Athletic Bowl

Rutgers (9-3) vs. Virginia Tech (6-6)

December 28, 2:30 p.m.

Virginia Tech could really use a bounce-back performance here after one of the worst seasons of the Frank Beamer era. Going .500 in the ugly ACC this year was very surprising. However, this may the perfect team to catch at the right time. Rutgers looks better on paper, with a superior record and better stats. There’s just one problem: they’re not good. I’ve seen the Scarlet Knights multiple times this year and a pretty good defense is about the only thing the team has going for it. All their numbers are inflated by playing in the terrible Big East. VT is by no means a great squad or even an above-average one, but overall their athletes still match up favorably with those of Rutgers. Look at the Scarlet Knights’ offense. Even playing in the Big East, the team averaged fewer than 350 yards per game offensively. That’s horrendous. They also lost their final two games, whereas Tech won the last two to sneak into a bowl. Despite what the records say, I see the Hokies winning this game.

Watchability: 2. Just because I’m picking the upset doesn’t mean it will be exciting.

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas

Minnesota (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (7-5)

December 28, 6:00 p.m.

Ah, we meet again! The Golden Gophers and Red Raiders will battle for the first time since Minnesota’s epic collapse in the 2006 Insight Bowl. Now, none of the current players will remember it and the coaches are both different, but it’s the principle of the thing that counts. In that regard, I predict UM will be out for revenge in this game. It probably wouldn’t even matter if they were, though. Minnesota beat only Purdue and Illinois following its 4-0 start, not exactly a confidence booster in the Worst Big Ten of All Time. Tech had some bad performances in the second half of the season as well, but did have a couple of very impressive ones too, going 7-5 in the super-deep Big 12. Fun fact: the Gophers don’t have a single player over 1,000 yards passing, rushing or receiving. In this age of offensive-minded football, that’s astounding. Mike Leach may be gone but the Red Raiders can still toss it around like nobody’s business, and seeing as neither of these teams is very interested in defense that matchup favors TTU. Red Raiders, big.

Watchability: 2. You can bet on some Texas Tech TD passes, but this could otherwise be unwatchable.

And that’s it through next Friday. Come back next week when the bowl overload hits and we’ll really have some fun. BCS games! Conference-versus-conference bragging rights! More old white guys getting hired as coaches over equally qualified minority candidates! We’ll have a ball. A FOOT ball, that is.