Pre-BCS rankings special (post #1)

National Overview

It's Friday, October 16th, a perfect time to try out a new college football blog. The 2009 season has been exciting, though not as wild and unpredictable as the last couple of years.

The SEC has been the dominant league in the polls in the first month of the year, with Florida, Alabama and LSU all in the top 5 at one point (more on this later). However, the conference does not look as tough overall as it has the last few seasons - Vanderbilt, Kentucky and Mississippi State are all still mediocre, and Ole Miss has been exposed.

The Big 10 hasn’t done a lot to change the perception that the conference is slow, overrated, outdated in its schemes, etc. Still, voters haven't completely given up, as seen by the top-15 rankings of Iowa, Ohio State and Penn State. Despite their loss to USC, the Buckeyes played well in that game and have been outstanding defensively all year. Although their offense has stagnated (to put it kindly) and they were largely outplayed last weekend by Wisconsin, Ohio State is 5-1 and solidly in contention for the Big 10 title. Iowa has gotten better every week since the near-disaster against Northern Iowa in the opener and their win on the road at Penn State looks good right now.

Penn State, on the other hand, has done nothing to deserve its 14th and 13th rankings (AP and Coaches Poll, respectively). The Iowa loss was ugly. But more importantly, who have the Nittany Lions beat? Akron, Syracuse, Temple, Illinois and Eastern Illinois are all among the worst teams in the nation. And all but one of games was at home! Right now Penn State is ranked solely because of lofty preseason expectations (more on this later). This is important because it is most likely to affect Iowa - their marquee win could lose significance later in the year, just in time for the Hawkeyes to get the shaft in the BCS.

California was the golden team (no pun intended) in the Pac-10 before conference play began in earnest, rising to sixth before getting shellacked by Oregon and USC. However, it remains to be seen whether the Bears are terrible (unlikely) or if they are a decent team that simply couldn’t match up to the two best teams in the conference (more likely). The rest of their season, especially this week's game at UCLA, will tell us a lot.

The rest of the Pac-10 is just as tricky to figure out. Is Oregon really that good, or did the Ducks just beat up on the bad teams in the league in Cal, WSU and UCLA? Keep in mind, the Bruins did beat Tennessee at Tennessee (more on this later). Then there's USC. It seems the Trojans are down, however slightly, from their usual frighteningly dominant position atop the conference. They certainly have the talent to roll into Eugene Halloween night and smash the Ducks en route to another title. But they could just as easily suffer a letdown like the one they had versus Washington and lose 1-2 more games. Right now, I'm not totally sold on this year's Trojans because of their mediocre offense. Meanwhile, Oregon State appears to be starting their familiar midseason push to prove that they are, once again, the nation's most underrated team, while Arizona and Washington continue to be enigmas, and Stanford is much improved, if not ready to win the Pac-10.

The Big 12? Not as difficult to tell. It'll either be Oklahoma or Texas, with Nebraska as a long shot just because of their defense. But this week's OU-UT showdown will probably decide the conference title... unless we have a situation like last year. Missouri and Kansas are both contenders in name only, as the Tigers have already lost to Nebraska and the Jayhawks haven't shown anything so far to make me believe they can beat Big Red.

The ACC and Big East are, to me, the easiest leagues to predict. Virginia Tech looks to be far and away the best team in their conference, plus their win over Miami ensures that even if they lose this week to Georgia Tech (more on the Yellow Jackets later), they'll still be in position to win the division and plaster whatever patsy comes out of the Atlantic. The Big East is similar, with Cincinnati the obvious favorite. The Bearcats will be tested, but I think they coast to the championship.

As for the rest of the nation, Boise State and TCU appear to be above all other non-BCS schools. If both win out, TCU probably has the edge to get into a BCS game because of their tougher schedule, but I expect them to drop one at some point because they actually play a couple of teams with a pulse. Notre Dame thinks it has a shot at a BCS bowl, but a loss this week to USC would end all hopes of that.

On the polls

The first thing I do when formulating my top 25 is look at recent performance. Oregon looked terrible on opening night in Boise, but over the past month has vastly improved. Should the Ducks be judged solely by their bad first game? Likewise, Penn State entered the season in the top 10 but has done nothing to justify keeping that ranking. They should remain lower in the polls until they win a game of consequence.With that in mind, my top 25 is as follows:

1) Alabama

Without a doubt, the Crimson Tide have been the most impressive team in the country. The win over Virginia Tech is looking great, and the defense and running game are nasty. I do question whether the Tide can pass effectively in a must-throw situation, but they might not ever need to.

2) Florida

The Gators are supremely talented, particularly on defense. But the offense has been inconsistent through the air and the schedule thus far has been weak (Charleston Southern, Troy, Tennessee, and Kentucky?). I'm not sold on LSU either.

3) Texas

Texas has done more to lose its ranking than any of the other undefeateds, looking lackluster before pulling away from its generally inept opponents. This ranking is pending the result of the Red River Shootout (sorry, it sounds better) this weekend. With a win, the Longhorns will be locked in the top 5 going forward.

4) Virginia Tech

The 'Bama loss is permissible because of how good the Tide may be. The Hokies throttled Miami and beat what is looking like a good Nebraska team. A one-loss Tech team would have an excellent argument to be in the BCS title game.

5) Cincinnati

The wins over Fresno State and at Oregon State were nice, but losing to USF would have been cause for a plummet in the polls. The team responded well to the loss of their quarterback, but if they're forced to play without him for an extended stretch there could be trouble.

6) USC

Has USC really proved to be the sixth best team in the country? No. The Washington loss was bad, and Oregon is the best team in the Pac-10 right now. But Southern Cal's recent history gives me reason to believe they'll rebound. Even in 2007, they survived losing to a superior Oregon team to win the conference title. It’s hard to bet against USC.

7) Miami (FL)

The Hurricanes have been a pleasant surprise this season, surpassing most people's expectations. That VT loss was ugly, but the wins over Georgia Tech and Oklahoma are solid and the schedule was really tough. This team could conceivably make a BCS bowl if they win out.

8) Boise State

Note: I lowered the Broncos' ranking after their midweek game against Tulsa. I just didn't see anything there that screamed "BCS caliber team." Right now, BSU is beating up on highly inferior opponents. If Oregon starts losing, their schedule strength will doom their chances.

9) Iowa

Iowa has impressed me a lot, winning in hostile conditions in Happy Valley and versus a good Michigan team. The Arizona win looks good now, too. The Hawkeyes just seem to win. They'll get a chance to prove themselves more with some big games later in the season.

10) Ohio State

The Buckeyes have been less than the sum of their parts, playing USC close but almost losing to Navy. The offense is a mess right now. At this rate, the defense is eventually going to break down. Still, there's a lot of talent here, so Ohio State will have every opportunity to win the Big 10.

11) Oregon

The Ducks have looked great the last few weeks, but injuries have started to mount. The defense might be Pac-10 title-worthy. However, the big Cal win is looking less impressive after USC slapped them around too. Oregon can make a statement with a win at Washington next week.

12) Nebraska

The Huskers are a miracle touchdown pass in Blacksburg from being undefeated. The defense is lights-out. But the offense is clearly a work in progress, and Nebraska looked terrible for three quarters against Missouri. This ranking is pending further evidence.

13) LSU

LSU, LSU. I can't see a whole lot to get excited about here; just like Ohio State, this team has underachieved to its talent level. The Tigers should have lost to both Mississippi State and Georgia, two teams that aren't that good. I don't know how voters can look at this team and rank them in the top 10.

14) Georgia Tech

Ok, I love the Ramblin' Wreck. The flexbone offense has been amazing for them. But the defense has to really improve if they want a shot at the ACC title. Ultimately, this is a second-tier ACC team, though still a threat to beat anyone because of that offense.

15) TCU

I'll admit it, I haven't seen much of the Horned Frogs this year. But from what I have seen in highlights and recaps, I've liked. The defense is characteristically solid. There haven't been any great wins yet, though. The team has some good tests later in the season and we'll be able to really evaluate them then.

16) BYU

BYU has been inconsistent. The win over Oklahoma was great, but the loss to Florida State is looking worse and worse. The Cougars still have talent, so if they beat TCU and Utah it'll be hard to keep them from a BCS game.

17) Oklahoma

Yeah, their best win is over Baylor. They have two losses. But both those losses were away from home, by one, without their quarterback. Do you really think Oklahoma is a bad team? I give them a great shot to beat Texas this weekend and win the Big 12.

18) Kansas

I want to believe. But the Jayhawks haven't played anyone yet. Once they meet Oklahoma next weekend, we'll know if Kansas is for real or just another BCS bully who beats up on cupcake schools.

19) Houston

The Cougars have gotten the shaft from the polls. What gives? They beat Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and Mississippi State. Not bad for a mid-major. The loss to UTEP doesn't look too good, but this is still a good team. They're better than Oklahoma State, who they inexplicably trail in both polls.

20) Oklahoma State

The Pokes have been up-and-down and their big win over Georgia is looking really suspect. They have a lot of offensive talent, but there's just no way they can compete in a division with Oklahoma and Texas.

21) Penn State

Quite frankly, I've seen nothing to suggest the Nittany Lions are anything close to elite. Their wins have all come against bad teams and their schedule doesn't give them much of a chance to redeem themselves for the Iowa loss. They had one realistic shot at the BCS title game – going undefeated – and are now relegated to competing for the Big 10 Championship, but it doesn't look promising.

22) Utah

The Utes' schedule is backloaded, so they should be able to rise up the rankings before their showdowns with TCU and BYU. The Oregon loss hurt, but because of the perceived strength of the Mountain West it won't kill them.

23) South Carolina

I was skeptical of this team for a long time because I thought Georgia and Ole Miss were overrated. Turns out I was right. But the Gamecocks have improved since the ugly opener versus North Carolina State and are probably the second-best team in their division. They won't win the SEC, but they should be in line for a decent year and will beat everyone left on their schedule except for Florida and Alabama.

24) Pittsburgh

The NCSU meltdown aside, this team has looked very solid. They beat a quality Connecticut team last week and have some good teams left on their schedule in Notre Dame, USF and Cincinnati. I see them winning at least one, if not two (or even three!) of those games, but probably falling just short of a conference championship.

25) Michigan

No, Michigan hasn't looked good in their two road losses. But the Wolverines played inspired in their first few games, and the program appears revitalized by an infusion of talent and youth. No one in the Big 10 is looking forward to playing this team.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I believe voters in both major polls refuse to re-rank teams every week out of stubborn pride. They don't want to admit they were wrong in their preseason predictions, so they try to keep teams close to where they initially projected them rather than move them up and down too drastically.

Who watched the Florida-LSU game and actually thought, "These are two elite, top 10 teams?" The Gators, all right. LSU? They didn't look like a top 10 team in the weeks leading up to this game, so why give them credit for only losing by ten? The Tigers are NOT currently a great team.

Usually voters give traditional powerhouse teams such as USC, Ohio State, etc. undeserved credit after losses because they feel those teams are "still very good." However, in the case of this year's Oklahoma team, the pollsters got it right: The Sooners played an aggressive schedule and paid for it, but deserve the benefit of the doubt. Of course, playing a series of cupcakes still works too - look at Kansas and Texas' schedules.

The Oklahoma State-Houston discrepancy deserves more attention. Both teams are 4-1, and the Cougars beat the Cowboys in Stillwater. Case closed, right? But wait! OSU came into the season highly ranked, while Houston was unranked. So the Pokes are actually a better team. This is apparently the logic of the voters of the AP and coaches polls.

ESPN's College Football Final aired from 9-10 Saturday night. The following is a breakdown of what the show covered in (roughly) minute-by-minute increments.

9:00-9:24 - Florida-LSU

9:24-9:25 - Texas-Colorado

Commercial Break

9:27-9:29 - Alabama-Ole Miss

9:29-9:30 – Oklahoma-Baylor

9:30-9:32 - Oklahoma-Texas preview

9:32-9:34 - Ohio State-Wisconsin

9:34-9:35 - Michigan-Iowa

Commercial Break

9:38-9:40 - Florida State-Georgia Tech

9:40-9:41 - Virginia Tech-Boston College

9:41-9:42 - Virginia Tech team analysis

9:45-9:46 - Oregon-UCLA

9:46-9:47 - Auburn-Arkansas

9:47-9:48 - South Carolina-Kentucky

9:48-9:50 - Florida-LSU

Commercial Break

9:52-9:53 - Kansas-Iowa State

9:53-9:54 - Oklahoma State-Texas A&M

9:54-9:55 - Alabama-Ole Miss

9:55-9:57 - Alabama team analysis

9:57-9:59 - Quick highlights, top plays

It may seem banal to break down the entire show like this, but the point I wanted to make was this: out of 53 possible minutes to show highlights on the ENTIRE country, 26 were devoted to the Florida-LSU game and more specifically, Tim Tebow. Tebow seems like a nice guy and is a great college football player. But if you want reason one as to why he gets so much hype, look no further. Spending half the show on one team, including running interviews that had played in the previous hour on the same channel during Sportscenter is simply bad journalism. ESPN has no excuse for this.

The SEC craziness is upon us. LSU rose in the rankings despite nearly losing to vastly inferior Mississippi State and Georgia, then dropped six spots in the polls after their loss to Florida. Ole Miss' perceived greatness buoyed South Carolina and Alabama when those teams beat the Rebels. Auburn got ranked by going 5-0 against zero quality opponents. Arkansas is now receiving top 25 votes for beating Auburn. But Auburn didn't beat anyone in the first place! Florida has used the LSU win as justification of their #1 ranking, but LSU was overrated in the first place. Alabama is the only SEC team that has earned their ranking. To make matters more confusing, Tennessee hammered Georgia last weekend. But the Vols lost at home to UCLA! What does this all mean? It's simple: There is no gap between the SEC and the rest of the country this year. Florida and Alabama are great teams. But that's it! The rest of the conference is no better than any other league. There are no quality out-of-conference wins outside of Alabama's Virginia Tech one, and there won't be any more because the SEC has scheduled so poorly. The truth is that there is more parity across the country than ever before.

Georgia Tech's offense has been fantastic since Paul Johnson took the helm with his triple-option flexbone attack. I don't have enough room to spend time on this subject this week, but I promise to return to it later in the season because it is indicative of a trend worth following in offenses across the country.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Eric Norwood, LB, South Carolina

The Gamecocks wouldn't be nearly as good as they are right now without Norwood, a dominating player who has been key to the team's defensive success. Just a Ray Lewis-type that everyone rallies around.

Tony Pike, QB, Cincinnati

Calm, collected and ultra-efficient. If Cincy wins the Big East, this guy deserves to be in New York. He makes everyone on that offense better. They don’t beat Oregon State on the road without him.

Jordan Shipley, WR, Texas

He's been Texas' best player this season, saving them with big returns and clutch receptions. Colt McCoy should thank him first if he wins the Heisman over his buddy, but Shipley has outperformed his quarterback to this point.

Ndamukong Suh, DL, Nebraska

The best player in the country right now, bar none. He's a chaotic force who requires double and triple teams to slow. If the Heisman really went to the player who meant the most to his team, Suh would win it at this point in the season.