Rivalry Midway Report

National Overview

Well, it's all come down to this week. Five of the six BCS conferences will decide their champion in the final week of the season, and we're being treated to some killer matchups. The sure-to-be-shootout featuring the explosive offenses of Georgia Tech and Clemson? Check. Alabama-Florida, part deux? Check. The Battle for the Big East? Check. The War for the Roses? Check. Even Texas-Nebraska has a chance (a chance, mind you) to get interesting if the Cornhuskers' defense shows up. Let us give thanks for this post-Thanksgiving bounty.

I'll admit that I preferred rivalry week back before the 21st century. Everyone played their biggest rival (with a few exceptions) on a single week. It was mayhem. Then the BCS and the NCAA's 12-game schedule screwed everything up by dividing the rivalry games over two weeks and tossing in the conference championship games, which are a sham. However, this year I actually like how everything worked out. The good games were split apart fairly evenly and we'll get a chance to see more teams play.

The biggest losers of the weekend were undoubtedly Georgia Tech and Clemson. While the Tigers and Yellow Jackets will still face each other in the ACC title game, their (and their conference's) respective reputations took a massive hit when they went down to middling SEC teams in Georgia and South Carolina. Now, these were rivalry games, and both ACC squads were probably looking ahead to this week's game, but there's still no excuse for this. The Bulldogs and Gamecocks are both 7-5 also-rans in the SEC, and they beat the two best ACC teams. Yikes. If the eventual ACC champ doesn't win their BCS bowl this year, the league is going to face a lot of questions about why it deserves an automatic bid. I'm sticking with the Ramblin' Wreck, but I sure didn't like what I saw out of either team last week.

TCU and Boise State definitely gained from the Georgia Tech loss, as the Yellow Jackets will no longer be considered for an at-large berth if they lose to Clemson. TCU, ranked fourth, has essentially clinched the mid-major BCS bowl bid, though BSU should still be in provided they win their thirteenth game this week. I'll discuss the BCS situation later.

Meanwhile, in the Big 12, Texas needed a near-flawless game from Colt McCoy to escape with a 49-39 win over rival Texas A&M. Although they won, the Longhorns have to be concerned about the sudden disappearance of their defense. Oklahoma also thankfully whacked Oklahoma State out of the BCS picture with an easy 27-0 win. Now we won't have to hear any more nonsense about how the Cowboys could go to a BCS bowl. Thanks, Sooners. The championship game this week will feature Texas against big underdog Nebraska, but crazy things have happened in the Big 12 title game before. The Horns had better be very careful, because Nebraska does have the ability to slow this contest down with their defense. In the end, you have to go with Texas because they're simply better, but it's not exactly a sure thing.

The titanic showdown of the weekend, of course, will be Florida versus Alabama, ranked first and second in the BCS. To the winner goes the BCS championship game invite, to the loser the Sugar Bowl awaits. Although 'Bama is a tough, physical team and Mark Ingram has been excellent this year, I just don't see how this game will be different from last season. Florida has exactly the same defense (it's a very good one) and has the offensive skill players the Tide lack. Last year Alabama couldn't throw the ball effectively, so what makes people believe they will be able to this time around? I think Florida wins again (more on this game later, though).

The Big East faces its dream scenario this week, when Cincinnati and Pittsburgh face off for the conference crown. The matchup did lose some of its luster when the Panthers fell to West Virginia last week, though the winner will still get the BCS bid. Not unlike the ACC, the league has been facing some tough questions about its credibility lately and could use a BCS win this year. I think the best team to represent the Big East would be Cincinnati... but I think Pittsburgh will win this game. Cincy's been hanging a lot of points on people, but the defense hasn't been exactly stellar. Pitt should be motivated after last week's last-second loss and I think they score this minor upset (it is at home, after all).

Then there's the Pac-10, which, for the first time ever will award its title to the winner of the Civil War, regardless of any other game. I will elaborate more on the War for the Roses later, but for now let it suffice to say this will be the biggest football game in the history of the state of Oregon. The Ducks and Beavers will battle it out at Autzen Stadium for the right to go to Pasadena on Thursday night, and these two evenly matched teams have the potential to create a showdown for the ages.

On the polls

I moved up some teams thanks to losses by other squads, but some schools didn't move up as much as they could have because their wins were so close. I also hopped Florida over 'Bama because the Tide should have lost to Auburn. West Virginia makes a reappearance after their upset of Pittsburgh, and I gave Iowa a spot in my rankings once again. Recall that these rankings reflect recent performance, not preseason expectations or hype.

1) Texas

Texas nearly slipped out of the top spot. I don't care if it was a rivalry, that Texas A&M game was way too close. McCoy and the offense have been hot of late, but the defense has some real question marks. And why can't the line protect McCoy better? For all the success, this team still has work to do before it's ready for a national championship. Nebraska will be a good test.

2) Florida

As I said, Florida nearly moved ahead of Texas. But you have to remember that the Gators' win was over Florida State. The previous week's win was over Florida International. Those teams have two things in common: their names and the fact that they're both bad. FSU has dropped off so much they actually fired Bobby Bowden. That tells you how much of a challenge the Seminoles were.

3) Alabama

The Tide were outgained and outplayed at Auburn but pulled out the win. The various nagging questions and problems that have been trailing Alabama all year have really intensified in the last few weeks. Aside from the victory over LSU last month, what has this team really done this season? Virginia Tech is good but not amazing, and the Tide's overall level of play has declined as the year has progressed.

4) TCU

I wanted to put TCU over Alabama but I just couldn't do it. You have to remember, Auburn may be bad, but New Mexico is far worse. The Horned Frogs shouldn't get rewarded for blowing out a 1-11 team. TCU has still been very dominant this season, though, and will receive a much-deserved BCS bid.

5) Cincinnati

When last we saw Cincinnati, they were scoring at will (but failing to stop) a terrible Illinois team. I feel like the Bearcats haven't really been challenged for a while, which could play into a slow start against Pitt this week. Can the defense turn it back on in time to clinch the Big East for the second straight year? It'll be a nasty battle, and the game is on the road.

6) Boise State

The last real obstacle to the Broncos' BCS hopes fell when Georgia Tech lost on Saturday. There's still the matter of those pesky Big Ten teams, but BSU is more deserving. After their not-too-surprising stampede of Nevada, I don't see how this team can get left out if they win this week. The extra win (Boise State plays thirteen games) should help their BCS rating too.

7) Oregon

Oregon got their bye at the right time, but now faces probably the toughest opponent of the season (yes, that includes Boise State and USC). The Ducks' defense has been surprisingly poor recently and they can't hope to simply outscore Oregon State. Who wins the 113th Civil War? It's close. It's very, very close. I think Oregon’s ability to contain the Rodgers brothers will dictate how this game will unfold. If they can at least slow them down, Sean Canfield will be forced to make plays on third-and-long, which is not his – or any quarterback’s – forte.

8) Ohio State

Ohio State has finished the regular season, so their ranking will be in limbo until after the Rose Bowl. The Big Ten champs went 10-2 and their best win was against either Iowa or Penn State... but you still have to give them credit for winning the conference again. It's going to be very interesting to see how the Buckeye coaching staff gets the team ready for the bowl game.

9) Oregon State

The Beavers have nearly completed their annual late-season push. All that remains is the Civil War against Oregon. It's tough to imagine Mike Riley not getting his players ready after last year's debacle. The deck is stacked against OSU, but they've proved in the past that they can handle difficult situations. Defensively, you can throw last year’s game out, because that was a once-in-a-lifetime exhibition by Oregon. Stopping the running game is crucial, though. OSU can’t afford to let this game turn into a shootout. The good news is that the Beavers are first in the conference in run defense.

10) Virginia Tech

Tech has had some fortune rising up the rankings while other teams have fallen. Their game against rival Virginia last week encapsulated their season. For a half, the Hokies played even with an inferior opponent, then flexed their muscles en route to a solid win. It's hard to figure this team out, but it's safe to say that they're not really elite.

11) BYU

The Cougars pulled out a wild one over rival Utah, bringing them to a 10-2 record and a probable repeat berth in the Vegas Bowl. While this team has finished just short the last two years in the Mountain West, they're still the model of consistency for any mid-major not named Boise State. Their bowl matchup with whichever Pac-10 team they draw should be very entertaining.

12) Georgia Tech

The Yellow Jackets took a hard fall on Saturday, going down to rival Georgia. I'm not entirely shocked by the outcome, but I'm definitely disappointed. The ACC looks really bad now, and it'll take a BCS win to regain any shreds of credibility. For its sake, and the Ramblin' Wreck's, I hope Georgia Tech beats Clemson this week.

13) USC

Another ranking due to attrition. The Trojans looked toothless against UCLA last week, which is perhaps the most disturbing thing about the way their season has gone. A Holiday Bowl berth is still within reach if USC beats Arizona, but the motivation and killer instinct this squad once showed have disappeared.

14) LSU

LSU doesn't really deserve to be ranked this high either, as the Tigers would have lost to Arkansas if not for some fortuitous breaks and questionable timekeeping. Nonetheless, the Bayou Bengals won, and will continue their march toward semi-greatness. The SEC has such great bowl tie-ins that even a mediocre team like LSU will be playing on New Year's Day.

15) Pittsburgh

Pitt got caught looking ahead to Cincy, there's no doubt about it. While West Virginia is a decent team, the Panthers are better. Problem is, they didn't play like it. Fortunately, Pittsburgh will get a chance to redeem themselves against the Bearcats this week. After the loss, I expect the home team to come out fired up, so I'll stick with my instinct of a looming Panthers upset.

16) Penn State

Penn State, like Ohio State, has already finished their regular season. Now they wait and pray that the BCS folks pick them instead of several other qualified teams. They don't deserve it, but don't be surprised to see this team in the Fiesta Bowl as an at-large school.

17) Miami (FL)

At least the ACC can handle the Big East! The 'Canes whipped South Florida 31-10 last weekend, proving where the balance of power in the Sunshine State lies. It's been a season of ifs and buts for Miami, which could have clinched the division if not for one loss (to either Clemson or North Carolina). The declining play of Jacory Harris is worrisome, but I still think this team is stacked for the future.

18) California

It's been impressive to watch the turnaround in Berkeley, where Cal can clinch no less than a tie for second place in the conference with a win versus Washington this week. Who would have thought that after the beatings administered by Oregon and USC? Jeff Tedford deserves credit for holding his team together.

19) Houston

After the obligatory blowout of Rice, the Cougars can finally start looking forward to the Conference USA title game against defending champion East Carolina. Teams with great offenses have been the only ones that can keep up with Houston, and I'm not sure that applies to ECU. In both of their losses this year, the Cougars have scored at least 30 points.

20) Stanford

After that thrilling win over Notre Dame last week, the question isn't any longer whether Toby Gerhart will get an invite to the Heisman Ceremony, it's whether he'll win it outright. At this point, the Cardinal have a decent idea of where they'll go in the postseason, so the win over the Irish was immaterial. It was still fun to watch, though.

21) Arizona

A week after blowing a shot at the Rose Bowl, the Wildcats almost collapsed again. Rival Arizona State should never have been in position to win that game, but as it was only a lucky muffed punt kept the Cats in range of the Holiday Bowl. 'Zona had better shape up in the next few days, because a certain former seven-time Pac-10 champion is waiting in L.A.

22) North Carolina

Well, I sure didn't see that loss to North Carolina State coming, but I guess that's why they play rivalry games. The Tar Heels have still have a successful season, but next year they might want to play all their games before patting themselves on the back. Like conference foe Miami, though, I think this team's future is bright.

23) West Virginia

West Virginia, where have you been all year? The last two games have been inspiring, and if the Mountaineers had just pulled out a win in that tight game with Cincinnati they'd be playing for the Big East championship this week against Rutgers. Alas, it wasn't meant to be. Rumor is that WVU might be headed to the Gator Bowl, regardless of the result of their last contest, because it would pit them against former coach Bobby Bowden in his last game at Florida State.

24) Clemson

Georgia Tech losing to Georgia was one thing, but this was ridiculous. South Carolina - a team that had shown zero offense all year - had no business running all over the Tigers. I'll keep Clemson ranked for now, but there's really no explanation for how the hottest team in the country came out so flat against their biggest rival.

25) Iowa

With all the losses around the country, at some point Iowa had to jump back into the top 25. No, I still don't think they're very good, but 10-2 with wins over Penn State and Arizona is tough to argue against. They had better not get a BCS invite, though.

Random Thoughts and Observations

The first and most important item of this week is the possible insanity that could erupt in the BCS. While you'll mostly hear that the national championship game will be played between Texas and the winner of Florida/Alabama, the truth is that a number of different scenarios could work out. One thing to assume here is that Boise State and Cincinnati both win their final game. Here's the first wild card:

What if Texas loses to Nebraska?

With the loss, the Longhorns would not only miss out on the national championship, they'd also grab an at-large BCS bid after the Cornhuskers won the Big 12. This is the nightmare for Boise State, Penn State and Iowa, who are all hoping for that invite.

Next, the SEC champion's opponent in the national title game would be either TCU, Cincinnati or Boise State. All three teams (if they finish undefeated), would have an equal argument for inclusion. However, none of those teams is a sexy (read: revenue-bringing) pick for the BCS championship, so it's possible, if unlikely, that another situation could arise, triggered by...

Alabama beating Florida

If the Gators, who are currently a comfortable number one in the BCS, were to lose, they could drop only to number two if Texas lost as well. Then Florida and Alabama would have a rematch in the national championship game. This is the doomsday scenario for college football.

In such a situation, undefeateds Boise State, TCU and Cincinnati would be furious they were passed over by a one-loss team. This is nothing new, in fact, it's what the BCS seems to thrive on. However, the consequences of an all-SEC rematch could be much more dire.

Last month, it was rumored - rumored, mind you - that Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney might threaten to secede from the BCS if Florida and Alabama played each other in the national championship game. I know at first this seems preposterous, given that the Big 10 has benefitted from the BCS more than any other conference.

However, Delaney would have a good argument: in 2006, top-ranked Ohio State beat second-ranked Michigan 42-39 in the season finale for both schools. When voters heard that the BCS might rematch the two in the national championship game, they immediately began ranking Michigan lower in their polls in order to lower the Wolverines' computer ranking. The rub? They were egged on by the SEC and Florida coach Urban Meyer, who openly campaigned for his one-loss team to jump Michigan and play the Buckeyes. The strategy worked, and the rest is history. Given how this situation worked out before, it would be outrageous for the loser of the SEC title game to backdoor their way into the BCS championship. So root for Texas this week, and pray that no SEC shenanigans go down under the table.

Speaking of the SEC championship (or as ESPN would call it, Tim Tebow's Showdown Of The Greatest Teams In The Country Featuring Tim Tebow, The Best Player Of All Time, Presented By Tim Tebow), I alluded before that I don't really see any intrigue with this game. And I don't. Last year the experts predicted a close, low-scoring game because of the powerful defenses of the two teams. The final score was 31-20 Florida, because the teams had accumulated their great defensive stats playing against some of the most anemic offenses in America in the SEC. Alabama couldn't throw when they had to, which cost them. This year, the teams are virtually the same, except instead of a fifth-year senior quarterback Alabama is trotting out a junior who had never started a game before this year. I'm looking for a similar result from last season: more points than everyone expects, with the Gators wearing down the Tide thanks to a semblance of a balanced offense.

As long as I'm on the subject of the SEC, I might as well add that had it not been for LSU's miraculous win over Arkansas on Saturday the league would only have two teams - division champs Alabama and Florida - over .500 in league play. LSU is 5-3, everyone else is 4-4 or worse. That's not parity, that's mediocrity.

Readers know that I have a love affair with Georgia Tech's flexbone offense. It's innovative, it's unconventional and it's very hard to stop given a week's time to prepare. However, as I noted earlier in the year, it can be stopped if the opponent spends a lot of time getting ready (and disciplined) to defend it, like when LSU held the Yellow Jackets to three points in their bowl game last year. I figured at least one team would do the same to Tech this season and it turned out to be Georgia. This isn't surprising at all; last year the Ramblin' Wreck dropped 45 points on the Bulldogs, which clearly rankled their rivals. Georgia obviously spent a good part of this season (and probably the offseason) with revenge on their minds, because they came into last week's game playing as well on defense as LSU did. Now if only Georgia hadn't spent so much time thinking about the Yellow Jackets, maybe they would have gone better than 7-5.

BYU quarterback Max Hall caught some flack this week for his post-game comments on rival Utah, when he said he "Hate[d] everything about them... their program, their fans." Hall also remarked that he thought the Utes were "classless" and that he didn't respect them. His comments stemmed from BYU's blowout loss last season in Salt Lake City, when his family reportedly had beer poured on them.

Some commentators have said that Hall's words were in themselves classless, but I'm completely all right with what he said. The best explanation I can offer for my reaction is that this is college football. You're supposed to hate your rival. Hall would have already held animosity toward Utah before his family was mistreated by their fans, and that incident would have taken his feelings to another level. I don't want to make some kind of social statement, but in the very politically correct society we live in it's nice to hear someone speak his mind. College sports are about emotion and college football is the most emotional sport there is. Hall isn't a bad person. He just hates Utah. What's so wrong about that?

In era-ending news, Bobby Bowden was forced out of his head coaching job at Florida State this week. Bowden is a legend, ranking second all-time in FBS wins after his 34 years at the school. During one incredible stretch, the Seminoles finished fourth or higher in the polls every year for fourteen straight seasons. It is truly a sad day for college football.

However, it is also important to realize that this change had to be made. Bowden is 80 years old. He could no longer run an offense or a defense or even game plan for an opponent (at least, successfully). The truth is that Florida State is now a shell of what they once were, and it's because Bowden stayed too long. He deserved a better send-off than this, but unfortunately it's a decision that had to be made if the school wanted to be competitive again.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

I'm back to narrowing down my list again after last week eliminated some guys and made it clear that others should be given more credit. Unless there's a monster performance by a fringe player this week, my list is unlikely to change again, but you never know.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller would have been out after his awful game against South Carolina, but the guy was sick, for goodness sake. He still felt well enough to run back his NCAA-record seventh kickoff for a touchdown. Has he filled the void left by Jahvid Best's injury? Yes. That's quite an accomplishment.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Video-game numbers, and he might get some votes if Houston wins the Conference USA, but there's just not quite enough there to give him the Heisman. He played just as well against Oklahoma State as Colt McCoy did, though. Give the man his due - he won't get it next year when the Cougars return to obscurity.

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

He punctuated his amazing year with 200 yards and three TD's (along with one passing) against Notre Dame. If Gerhart isn't in New York there ought to be a Congressional investigation. He's gone for 1,700 yards and 26 touchdowns in the nation's toughest conference. Pac-10 teams are going to rejoice when he leaves, more proof that he's Heisman material.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

As good as Gerhart was, McCoy was just as impressive against Texas A&M. No, he hasn't played a very hard schedule, but he's carried the team the whole season. He's ultra-efficient despite playing with a spotty running game and only an above-average line. I would be shocked to see anyone but McCoy win the Heisman if Texas makes the national championship game.

The Civil War

It's finally here. More than 100 years of games between the top two football teams in the state of Oregon, and there's never been a game of this magnitude. Oregon sits at 7-1 in conference play, Oregon State just one step behind at 6-2. The winner, for the first time ever, will be assured the Pac-10 championship and a berth in the Rose Bowl in Pasadena. On the eve of the Civil War, the hype has reached a fever pitch.

The Civil War has a place among a very select group of rivalries, the kind only college football can muster. The game is Oregon's Super Bowl - no professional football team calls Oregon its home. There are exactly two schools in the state that field FBS football teams, a rarity in today's ever-expanding football world. It is the biggest sporting event of the year, every year.

It's difficult to describe the Oregon-Oregon State rivalry to someone not originally from the state. The feelings it evokes can be learned, but to a native Oregonian the emotions are almost always stronger. It is very much a "Civil" War; while many rivalries across the nation feature teams and fan bases that rankle each other all year, Oregon and Oregon State fans live in peaceful coexistence most of the time.

But the battle for state supremacy is not the only reason the game is so ingrained in Oregon culture. The contest is highly personal as well: many families seem to have at least one member that went to each school. It truly is a brother-against-brother affair. People are deeply passionate about their favored school, in large part because of how bad the two teams have been historically. Both were lovable underdogs for decades, popping up every ten years or so with a good season and then disappearing again for long stretches.

But those days are over. In the late 1980s Oregon began a long climb to respectability that culminated with their first Pac-10 championship - and Rose Bowl - in nearly 40 years. Oregon State followed suit, and by the turn of the millennium the teams were competing against each other for the conference title. After a few years of uncertainty and doubt, the Ducks and Beavers have roared back onto the national scene in the past few seasons. It is precisely this reason why the Civil War has come to mean so much more than it ever has. For all the years of losing, of frustration, of sad acceptance, Oregonians feel they have paid their dues. They feel they deserve a conference title, a Rose Bowl, a national championship.

Now the teams must face each other for the chance to represent the Pac-10 (and really, the entire West Coast) in the Rose Bowl, The Granddaddy of them All. It's been a wild and marvelous 114 years to this point (the first game was played in 1894). To the winner goes everything. Oregon and Oregon State are evenly matched to such an absurd degree that it would be insulting to predict a winner. This is a game where one play could decide it all. I don't know what's going to happen, no expert (despite what they tell you) knows what's going to happen and the players and coaches don't know what's going to happen. All I know is that the nation's eyes will be focused, for this one night, this one moment, on Eugene, where two of the country's finest football teams will play for the right to call the state and the conference their own. It couldn't happen to two more deserving schools, and the state of Oregon should be proud to call these Ducks and Beavers their own.

May the best team prevail. The roses await.

Thanksgiving Week Answers

National Overview

And the Lord said, "Let there be clarity." After weeks, nay, months of confusion, the conference races fell into simple alignment across the nation on Saturday. Only one league - the Conference USA - has any doubt left regarding its championship determinants. Let's start with the mid-majors (I'll even put the conferences in order from weakest to strongest the way I seem them):

Troy will win the Sun Belt even with a loss in the next game by virtue of their win over second-place Middle Tennessee State. I laugh at the Sun Belt a lot, and rightfully so, but I've followed the Trojans a bit over the last few years and feel confident that they're actually pretty good.

Boise State and Nevada are both undefeated in WAC play, thus their game this week will decide the conference title. Nevada has an unbelievable rushing attack - the Wolf Pack just became the first team in NCAA history to have not one, not two, but three 1,000-yard rushers in a season - but I just can't see how the Broncos could possibly lose to them. If Notre Dame could beat Nevada 35-0, BSU should probably be OK.

Central Michigan and Temple are both 7-0 in the MAC and will meet in the conference championship game regardless of what each team does in the regular season finales. I like Central Michigan and QB Dan LeFevour a lot, even going so far as to rank them this season. Still, Temple is having a miracle year, their greatest ever, and many are wondering if they might not be destined to win out (more on the Owls, yes, the Owls, later).

In the Conference USA, Houston is poised to take the West division provided they handle woeful Rice in their last game, which they should. If they should lose, though, SMU - the same SMU that gave Washington State its only win - will claim the division. East Carolina and Southern Miss play this week to determine the East winner. Houston has proved to be the most talented team in the conference, but the Cougars have also shown themselves to be vulnerable to mental lapses. It's anyone's guess who will win this league.

The Big East, while not a mid-major conference, has performed like one this season, which is why I ranked it below the Mountain West. The chase for the title has been a two-team affair all season, with Cincinnati and Pittsburgh set to conclude their epic duel on December 5th. I do like both those teams, by the way. It's just that the rest of the Big East is so weak. The fact that its members play only a seven-game conference slate - the shortest of any league - contributes to this, as most of schools play one if not two FCS opponents and fare poorly in big-game nonleague play.

The Mountain West could be even stronger were it not for its collection of cupcakes at the bottom. As it stands now, Utah, BYU and TCU have raised the bar for all mid-major teams and really improved the reputation of the conference in general. The Horned Frogs have clinched the title thanks to their wins over the Utes and Cougars, though there's still a great game left with those two battling it out for second place this week.

The poor, embattled Big Ten decided its champion last week when Ohio State beat Iowa, but the Buckeyes made it super-official with a win over Michigan Saturday. The question now is whether 10-2 Iowa or 10-2 Penn State can snatch up an at-large BCS bid. I, of course, would respond with a resounding please-God-no, but that's just me. More on the Big 10's BCS chances later.

It seems strange to think the Big 12 could be only the fourth-best conference after all the preseason love it got, but that's where we stand after the overall dismal quality of play this year. Not one team lived up to its expectations, including undefeated Texas. The Longhorns have wrapped up the South division because there wasn't a legitimate challenger, but they had to wait until this week to see who they would play in title game because no one seemed to want to win the North. With a win over Kansas State Saturday, Nebraska earned the right to play for a BCS bid, but it would truly be shocking to see the Cornhuskers beat the Horns.

It's also odd to think of the ACC as the third-best conference, but the league has earned it this year. The usual near-universal mediocrity is present again, but this year more teams than usual managed to rise above the pack. The Coastal division alone has four strong squads in Georgia Tech, Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and North Carolina, and Clemson in the Atlantic has finished the season as one of the hottest teams in the country. It feels weird to say, but we may be headed for a very good ACC championship game.

The SEC, of course, has had the worst race of any conference this season, as Florida and Alabama cakewalked to 8-0 records and easy title game berths. In retrospect, it's actually remarkable how simple it was for the Tide and Gators: aside from 'Bama's week one win over a good but not great Virginia Tech team, the only ranked opponent the teams played was LSU, who they both beat. Why the voters have deemed these schedules worthy of the top rankings is another issue entirely.

Finally, the Pac-10, which concludes its wild and highly entertaining fight for the Rose Bowl December 3rd in the Civil War. Going into last weekend five teams (half the league!) still had a shot at the title. Oregon State ended USC's hopes with a predictable victory over WSU, Cal stunned red-hot Stanford in the Big Game, and Oregon outlasted Arizona in the back-and-forth, crazy-go-nuts, double-overtime game of the year. Now, for the first time ever, the winner of Oregon-Oregon State will be ensured a spot in the Granddaddy of Them All as the Pac-10 champion.

On the polls

There's a distinct Pac-10 flavor to my poll this week, although that's fair if you accept that its the best conference in the nation. The gaps in logic from the voters are still baffling to me. LSU lost to unranked Ole Miss and fell from eighth to fifteenth, while Stanford lost to ranked Cal and went from fourteenth to unranked. This makes sense if you remember that LSU was supposed to be great and rank them accordingly, but it's outrageous by any other measure.

1) Texas

Texas is doing what it's supposed to do, no more and no less. The opponents have been weak, but the results have been blowouts. There's certainly danger in the upcoming rivalry game with Texas A&M, but there haven't been any signs that the Horns are on the verge of an upset. The question is, how can Texas turn it on again in the BCS title game after playing so many bad teams?

2) Alabama

'Bama whaled on Chattanooga this week as the country gave a collective "So what?" The rivalry game with Auburn this week should be a mere formality as the Tide look ahead to the SEC championship game with Florida. They should be extra motivated after last year's loss kept them out of the BCS title game.

3) Florida

Florida looked alive for the first time in a while, but the caveat is that it came against Florida International. Urban Meyer can spin it anyway he wants, but the Gators have struggled to move the ball against every halfway decent team they've played. Can they find themselves against rival FSU and then claim another SEC title?

4) TCU

After an early 10-10 tie, the Horned Frogs shredded Wyoming Saturday. It appears TCU is playing for style points now, because the Mountain West is wrapped up and an undefeated season would be rewarded with a BCS bowl. It's still a long shot... but if Texas loses, TCU could find themselves in the national championship game.

5) Cincinnati

The idle week should have helped the Bearcats. The game this week versus Illinois should too. With two games left, Cincy has a great chance to go back-to-back in the Big East, but they'd be the first to tell you that goal is still a long way off. You can probably pencil in a win against the Illini, and then it's gloves off for the heavyweight fight with Pitt.

6) Georgia Tech

Even though Georgia is way down, I'm still pumped for their game with the Yellow Jackets this week. Tech has been on an unstoppable roll and now they've had a week off to prepare for their rival. The focus is on the ACC title game with Clemson, true, but there's always a good excuse to watch the flexbone go.

7) Boise State

The Broncos beat up Utah State Friday, but it goes without saying a lot of people are still not convinced. The shame is that BSU is a good team, but it's hard to have sympathy for them when they play a bunch of glorified high school squads. Can they beat out Iowa or Penn State for an at-large BCS bid? Word is that's the way the selection committees are leaning.

8) Pittsburgh

I didn't think it was fair to move Oregon over Pitt because the Panthers didn't play. They'll get a chance to prove themselves against a decent West Virginia team this week, and then it's off to the showdown with Cincy. Pitt was on such a roll before their bye it's fair to wonder if taking a week off actually hurt them.

9) Oregon

The Ducks got lucky, but they also showed a lot of heart in beating Arizona. They whole team, but particularly the defense, desperately needs the bye they're about to get. The Civil War is about to go nuclear and Oregon had better be ready. With that said, this team is still 7-1 in the Pac-10 and in great position to go to the Rose Bowl.

10) Ohio State

It was a rivalry game, so I guess the close Michigan score shouldn't weigh too heavily against the Buckeyes. Questions about the team - and the conference - abound, though. Is Ohio State really good, or did they just play an easy schedule? I feel like I've asked this before. It's worth noting that the Big 10 champion lost at home to the fifth-place Pac-10 team.

11) Oregon State

Wazzu is pretty bad and OSU didn't give them a prayer. Who will come out on top in the epic Civil War showdown? Both Oregon and OSU have a week off beforehand, which has been crucial for the winner the past two years. Oregon State seems to be peaking right on schedule and the Beavers would to pay back their rivals for the debacle in Corvallis last season.

12) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys have sleepwalked their way to 9-2, beating no one and losing to the two good squads they've seen. I generally support a lower-profile Big-12 program like Okie State, but I'm hoping that the Pokes go down to Oklahoma in the Bedlam game so they don't pick up a very undeserved BCS bowl bid.

13) Clemson

The win over Virginia wasn't too spectacular, but it's worth noting that the Tigers already had the division wrapped up with Boston College's loss earlier in the day. Clemson has been great over the past month and I cannot stress enough how much I'm looking forward to the Georgia Tech rematch in the ACC title game.

14) Virginia Tech

The Hokies have disappointed this season, it's true. But with a win this week, they could salvage a 9-3 record and pick up another ten-win season in their bowl. VT has been the ACC standard for the past several years, so there's no reason to think they can't finishe strong and rebound in 2010.

15) BYU

The Cougars finally looked like their old selves this week, smashing Air Force in preparation for their rivalry game with Utah. That matchup has lost some of its luster, but with second place in the conference and a decent bowl on the line it should still be a heated, fun affair. Both teams lost big to TCU, but Utah lost bigger. Right now, I'll take BYU.

16) LSU

Karma finally caught up to LSU and Les Miles, as the Tigers got jumped by Ole Miss Saturday. LSU's cred is quite questionable at this point. Their best win is still over a mediocre Georgia squad and they've played several close games with bad teams. Their biggest accomplishments to date are their losses to Florida and Alabama. Impressive.

17) USC

For the Trojans' sake, let's hope they did some soul-searching on their week off. It's official: the Rose Bowl is finally out of reach. But the Pac-10 is still a mess in its second tier, and USC might be rewarded with a Holiday Bowl berth if they win out. The UCLA game ought to be a breather, but the finale with Arizona could be a crazy one.

18) North Carolina

UNC has been so impressive over the last few weeks. If they'd only started the year better, they could have lived up to the preseason hype. As it stands, though, the Tar Heels can potentially finish with ten wins. That's pretty solid for a team that lost three of four in the middle of the year.

19) Penn State

So your name is Penn State. You just blew out rival Michigan State, but the Spartans are 6-6. You lost to the top two teams in your conference and your best win is over 8-4 Northwestern. Your schedule strength is abysmal. Yet you're ranked in the top fifteen in the BCS and are being talked about as a probable BCS bowl team. Thank someone, because you sure don't deserve it.

20) Utah

I've seen Utah several times, including once in person, and I have to say they're just not very impressive. To be sure, they deserve top-25 status, but this isn't the same team as last year. I think BYU is going to beat them fairly handily this week and the Utes will have to play for a ranking in their bowl game.

21) Miami (FL)

They came away with a sizable win, but the 'Canes looked real shaky for a couple quarters against Duke. The wheels have come off a little, but as I said last week, that might not be such a bad thing if Miami can turn this year into a lesson for the next. By the way, a 10-3 record with that schedule is totally respectable.

22) California

Look who's back from the dead! Cal rumbled back into the national picture with a gritty upset of Stanford and has now won five of six to close the year. The Pac-10 season started with major disappointment for the Bears, but now they're right back to where the realists projected them: third or fourth in the conference. They deserve credit for not giving up on the season.

23) Houston

The Cougars are going to hover around the bottom half of the rankings for the rest of the year, but that shouldn't take away from what they've accomplished in 2009. If not for a couple of defensive meltdowns, Houston could have been undefeated and mentioned in the same breath as TCU and Boise State.

24) Arizona

Like I said, it's unbelievable that the Cats could drop out of the rankings following an touchdown loss to Cal and a double-overtime loss to Oregon. Those are two quality losses, and 'Zona beat Oregon State too. They should be back in the rankings by season's end, or something is very wrong with the voters. But what else is new?

25) Stanford

Someone finally figured out how to slow down the Cardinal: give Toby Gerhart his 100 yards and hope Andrew Luck has a bad game. It worked for Cal, but you've got to think Stanford's going to be angry following the loss of not only the Big Game, but a shot at the Rose Bowl. I fear for their next opponent, which happens to be... Notre Dame. Life is sweet.

Random Thoughts and Observations

I just shake my head and grimace when I hear Iowa and Penn State are considered the leaders for one of the coveted at-large BCS bids. Didn't we see both these teams get exposed? Iowa by Ohio State and Northwestern, Penn State by Iowa themselves. Please, take a look at their schedules and tell me where the quality wins are. The best team Penn State beat on their pillowy-soft schedule was Northwestern, while the best team Iowa beat out of their delicious cupcake meal was Penn State. How can people possibly be suckered into giving the Big 10 two BCS bids again? If you look at the historical records, it's just laughable.

The conference has the most BCS bowl teams of all time at nineteen, but has won only eight of those games, the second-worst percentage among the conferences. Half of those wins came in the first two years of the BCS (1998 and 1999). Ohio State won the Fiesta Bowl in both 2002 and 2003, and the final two wins came from the Buckeyes and Penn State in 2005. That's right - the Big 10 has not won a BCS bowl in four years. But they've still been awarded two bids every season since, and will likely receive two this year!

However, the tale becomes even more damning if you look at the participants' opponents in those 2005 games. Penn State beat an 8-4 Florida State team (who won the ACC thanks to a miracle upset of superior Virginia Tech) by a score of 33-30 in triple overtime, a game before which the Nittany Lions were quoted as describing as an "insult" because of the quality of competition. That same year Ohio State beat everyone favorite BCS whipping boy, Notre Dame. So in the past seven years, the Big 10 has only won BCS bowls over a mediocre FSU team and a Notre Dame team that (surprise, surprise) didn't deserve to be there. The conference has lost six straight BCS games and six straight Rose Bowls. Yet it is quite likely that PSU or Iowa will go BCS bowling this year.

Oklahoma State is in a similar position as Iowa and Penn State, having lost at home to Texas and Houston. Their best win is over a Georgia squad that might finish 6-6, but because they were ranked highly in the preseason voters have been more than happy to give them the benefit of the doubt despite the fact that they haven't beaten anyone on a weak schedule.

All of this makes me wonder how long the voters can keep ignoring the Boise State-sized elephant in the room. BSU played a very weak schedule, it's true, but most people said they could get into a BCS bowl if most other teams lost one or probably two games. Well, guess what? Every team that is now being discussed as a BCS contender has two losses. If Oregon wins the Pac-10, how can you not put the Broncos into a BCS bowl? They would have the best win of any of the at-large teams! Penn State, Iowa and Oklahoma State have all played garbage schedules too, it's just that those teams lost when they faced real competition. Boise State didn't play but one hard team and thus didn't lose. By that standard, BSU is at least equal to those other teams.

On a happier note, how 'bout them Owls? Temple has done the unthinkable, pulling a resurrection for the ages with coach Al Golden. Right now the Owls sit at 9-2 with a shot at the MAC championship. Those words are absolutely shocking for me to write. It's impossible to put into words just how bad Temple has been historically. Worse than Oregon State. Worse than Rutgers. Impossibly bad. Temple has been playing football for over a hundred years and has recorded an astonishing nine winless seasons. Their greatest coach had a winning percentage of just 60. The program had just four winning season from 1938 to 1963 and reeled off 21 straight losses in the late 50s. In the past twenty years, Temple has had only one winning season before this one.

But that's not all. The Owls are also the only school to ever be kicked out of a conference. The reason they currently play in the MAC is because the Big East - yes, the Big East! - removed them following the 2004 season. What made the expulsion even more humiliating was the fact that the ACC had just raided the Big East of its three best teams (Miami (FL), Virginia Tech and Boston College) in an attempt to create a "superconference" a la the SEC and Big 12. The Big East was reeling and desperately needed teams to prevent itself from collapsing as a league. It still made the decision to boot the Owls, instead snatching up lowly Conference-USA teams in Louisville, USF and Cincinnati (although this looks like a good decision in retrospect).

But look at Temple now! I am truly glad to see this long-suffering program finally pick itself up and contend. The school had better lock up coach Golden to prevent him from bolting to better team - if he can do this with Temple, he might be the best coach in the nation.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

I had to think long and hard about my Heisman picks this week. No one has had an outstanding enough season to warrant top consideration. To reflect this, I decided to expand my list to include fringe contenders along with the guys most deserving. It's also true that I am only including offensive players, which does not accurately reflect who the best players in the country are. What can I say? I'm only human and it gets more and more difficult to follow defensive players as the year goes on.

On the outside looking in:

Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford

Gerhart was huge in the wins over Oregon and USC, but his chance probably ended with the loss to Cal. It's too bad, because no player in the country exerts his will on a defense like he does. He should be a finalist, but we don't live in a perfect world.

Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State

The heart and soul of the Beavers, Rodgers' only crime is not being flashy enough to get included on the ESPN highlight reels. All he does is produce yards and touchdowns. He won't get serious consideration this year, but next summer his campaign should start in earnest.

Dan LeFevour, QB, Central Michigan

He's the best run-pass threat not named Masoli. Although great careers shouldn't be rewarded, I'd break that rule to honor him with at least an invite to New York. He wins pretty, he wins ugly, and CMU would be a .500 team without him. That's a Heisman resume to me.

Jeremiah Masoli, QB, Oregon

Just last week I said I didn't consider Masoli a Heisman candidate. Six touchdowns and a last-second drive to lead the team back from certain defeat changed that. It's tough to name a better player than Masoli right now. He has Oregon's offense humming again.

Kellen Moore, QB, Boise State

I know he plays in a weak conference. But he's been golden since he stepped on the field as a freshma last season and plays brilliantly in every game. It's hard to see the Broncos beating any quality opponents without Moore. Leading the nation in passing efficiency has to count for something, doesn't it?

The main event:

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

I've been hearing for weeks that Ingram has been the most consistent back in football, but I've not seen it on the field. I can't reward the guy for playing behind a mammoth line and feasting on a diet of cupcakes that would make Charlie Weis and Mark Mangino blush.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

Another week, another 400-yard effort from Keenum. His numbers are insane, but the win-loss record is now just so-so against that schedule. He probably will (criminally) be excluded from the ceremony in New York, though I'll always believe he was the most deserving player this season.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's performance dipped ever so slightly this week, which was enough for me to move him down. I still think he's college football's best back and most explosive player, but it's hard to see him winning the top prize unless he engineers an upset of Georgia Tech in the ACC championship.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

The best player on the best team? That's been a common Heisman recipe in the past. There may be players slightly more deserving of the award, but McCoy is certainly worthy as well. Once Texas goes 13-0 and clinches a spot in the national championship game I think his supporters will have all the evidence they need. He's also probably the best QB in Texas history, which is a pretty high honor.

Mid-November: The plot thickens

National Overview

A couple more conference races decided, another shocking loss for USC and a unfortunate missed opportunity for one Heisman hopeful. The college football season rolls on and the bowl picture has begun to take shape. But first, let's take a moment to lament the end of Houston QB Case Keenum's Heisman candidacy. He deserves consideration, but the team's loss to Central Florida all but eliminates him from the real race. You'll still be on my ballot, Case!

The big game of the weekend was Iowa-Ohio State, a game that would determine the Big Ten's winner and thus Rose Bowl participant. During the contest, the teams' national rankings (ten and eleven, respectively) proved to be an absolute joke. Showcasing poor quarterbacking, timid playcalling and mediocre defense, the showdown could only have served to reinforce all the negative stereotypes the nation already holds about the Big Ten. Right now, Ohio State - who won the game, by the way - should be trembling at the thought of facing Oregon, Arizona, Stanford or Oregon State in the Granddaddy, because they're going to get clocked.

As expected, Georgia Tech put the finishing touches on their ACC title bid by steamrolling Duke. The Yellow Jackets will face Clemson in a rematch - provided the Tigers beat Virginia next week. Clemson lost a wild one 30-27 to the Ramblin' Wreck earlier in the year and should have a great shot at beating them this time.

It was business as usual in the SEC, as Florida and Alabama both dealt with vastly inferior opponents (although "dealt with" is a relative term). LSU proved they are the most overrated team in the country by nearly losing at home to Louisiana Tech, but Ole Miss continued their rise back toward respectability by appropriately beating Tennessee.

The Pac-10 had two eyebrow-raising final scores on Saturday. The first and most significant was Stanford complete demolition of USC, 55-21. Wow. Oregon's win a couple weeks ago doesn't look quite as impressive now, does it? Stanford is the hottest team in the country, but that was ridiculous. Cal also upset Arizona, making the Pac-10 race even more confusing. With everything that's happened in the SEC this year, I think it's safe to say that this is the nation's toughest conference.

In the Big East, Cincinnati withstood a stiff challenge from West Virginia to remain unbeaten and Pittsburgh survived Notre Dame to improve to 9-1. I've started to lose faith in the Bearcats of late, but they only have two games left and Pitt seems to be the only team capable of knocking them off. That showdown in a few weeks has the potential to really be special.

The only surprise in the Big 12 was Missouri beating Kansas State, but at this point I don't anyone knows what's happening in the North division. Nebraska will play K-State next week for the opportunity to get clobbered by Texas. The Longhorns have by far the easiest route to the BCS title game.

There were a couple of good mid-major contests this week, with the Spud Bowl in Boise and the Utah-TCU matchup. Neither the Boise State blowout over Idaho nor the TCU blowout of the Utes really surprised me, though. Let the pandering to the voters begin! Boise State has wisely shut up about the BCS bowl debate for a while because they obviously realize the Horned Frogs have played a much harder schedule. Still, TCU has to be sharp, because an upset would send the Broncos to one of the big games instead.

On the polls

I'll say I'm encouraged this week. Stanford got some long-overdue love and shot up to number 14, while the pollsters reasonably only dropped Utah to 23rd following their TCU loss. I'm not quite as happy about the rankings of Ohio State (eighth), LSU (ninth) and Iowa (an are-you-kidding-me fifteenth). However, the voters seem to have gotten things more right than usual this week, so there's reason to be optimistic about the rest of the season. My top 25 is as follows:

1) Texas

Once again, not much has changed. The Horns beat another patsy big, and realistically won't be challenged by their last two opponents (Kansas and Texas A&M). 12-0 looks comfortably within reach as long as Texas remains focused.

2) Alabama

Mississippi State is complete garbage, but at least the Tide were obligated to play them as an SEC member. That's a lot more than you can say about Chattanooga, 'Bama's next opponent. Come on. It's one thing to play an FCS cupcake school in September, it's quite another to play one in mid-November. The SEC needs a major upgrade in out-of-conference scheduling.

3) Florida

What was it I said last week? "The Gators won again in underwhelming fashion"? You can copy and paste that for this week's description, as Florida managed to eke out a ten-point win over mediocre South Carolina. By all rights this team deserves to move down in the rankings, but I guess I continue to give them credit for their past success, like USC.

4) TCU

TCU is about as close to the "top three" as you can get without jumping one of those teams. The Horned Frogs' on-field performance certainly merits BCS championship consideration. If they win next week and Florida nearly loses again, I'll consider moving them up.

5) Cincinnati

I considered West Virginia a top-25 team in name only, which is why the Bearcats' three-point win concerned me a little. Cincinnati is still winning, but in a decidedly Florida-like way. It's tough to tell if they're a good team that has caught a lot of breaks or a great team that plays down to their competition. All I know is that right now I'd take Pittsburgh over Cincy.

6) Georgia Tech

Tech did what they had to do against Duke, steamrolling the Blue Devils en route to an ACC title game berth. There's still the matter of dangerous games against rival Georgia and (probably) super-hot Clemson, but I can definitely see this team finishing with just one loss.

7) Boise State

Interesting, very interesting. That close Louisiana Tech win doesn't look quite as bad after the Bulldogs nearby beat LSU in Baton Rouge. With only four undefeated teams left (and the guarantee of a maximum of three), BSU will have an argument at year's end that they deserve to be in a BCS bowl. The problem is that the bowl folks would have to pick them over say, Penn State, which isn't happening.

8) Pittsburgh

Pitt had Notre Dame beat before letting up and almost seeing the Irish steal one. The five-point win was a bit disconcerting, but I'm sticking with the Panthers for now. I think Pitt has what it takes to knock off Cincy in that season-ending showdown and win the Big East. Their offense has come light years from last season.

9) Oregon

The defense looks very shaky. Tucson has been a nightmare in past seasons for the Ducks. The national spotlight (and Gameday) is on this team once again. Even so, I believe Oregon can learn from Cal's upset of the Wildcats and win this week. The question is, which group of Ducks will show up - the one that plastered USC, or the one that played two-hand touch against Stanford?

10) LSU

How, how, how are the Tigers getting so much respect? In their last two games, LSU lost to Alabama and trailed in the second half versus Louisiana Tech before dodging the upset. In response, the voters moved them from eighth to... eighth. Uh, what? I don't get the fascination with this team; their offense is horrible and their defense isn't even up to the normal LSU standard.

11) Ohio State

The Buckeyes gave Iowa every undeserved opportunity to win they could last week and the Hawkeyes still couldn't capitalize. I saw a lot I didn't like in the de facto Big Ten championship game, but it's undeniable that Ohio State has improved since the ugly Purdue loss. However, is that because of the team or the quality of the competition? We'll have to wait until the Rose Bowl to find out.

12) Oregon State

Oregon State? Number twelve? Well, let's see. They beat Stanford, which looks really good now. Their losses are to Cincinnati, USC and Arizona, all completely respectable. After the obligatory annihilation of Washington State this week, OSU will go until the Civil War with an 8-3 record and a chance at the Rose Bowl. Considering the Pac-10 is the nation's strongest conference, this seems to be a very appropriate place for the Beavers.

13) Stanford

See Oregon State, above. The Cardinal have a bad loss (Wake Forest) on their resume OSU doesn't have, but their wins are more impressive. First Oregon, now USC? That 55-21 beatdown might be the most eye-popping score this season. With respect to Clemson, Stanford is now the hottest team in the country. They could even win the league if several games go their way.

14) Oklahoma State

The Cowboys are certainly good, but I don't understand why they're now being talked about as a potential BCS team. The Big 12 is widely regarded as very weak, so why should OSU get credit for beating no one? The only way they should even be considered is if they beat Oklahoma in their finale.

15) Virginia Tech

VT has become the lost team in the ACC, beating inferior opponents to little fanfare after their frustrating losses. I generally take the Hokies over most teams, but something has been missing this year. The easy ending schedule could give them a chance to recharge before the bowl game. However, the preseason recognition this team got has probably overrated them in the polls.

16) Clemson

Zooming into national prominence after taking control of their division, the Tigers have a shot at wrapping up a rematch with Georgia Tech if they beat Virginia this weekend. I'm not going to bet against them. The ACC championship is going to be a great game with C.J. Spiller adding to his Heisman resume against the wackiness of Tech's flexbone attack.

17) Wisconsin

Purdue, Indiana, Michigan, Northwestern. You can't accuse the Badgers of playing a whole lot of great squads. But to their credit, they're winning. Wisconsin is going to go 10-2 with losses to Ohio State and Iowa. The Big Ten is an average conference, but Wisconsin is at least good. I rank them here because the teams below them all have flaws of some kind.

18) BYU

A five-point victory over winless New Mexico? BYU is officially on trial ranking status. I suspect the blowout home loss to TCU shook the Cougars' confidence. A good season is still possible if they beat Utah, though. Both teams got waxed by the Horned Frogs, so the Holy War should be a good game.

19) USC

Wow. There are no words for what happened at the Coliseum on Saturday. USC is now in a position that we haven't seen for eight years. The Trojans should be able to beat their last two opponents -UCLA and Arizona - but will they? It's conceivable that without a big bowl as a reward the team might give up on the season. It will be very interesting to see how USC finishes.

20) Penn State

These guys move up only because the losses ahead of them. They've been sloppy all year, failing to put away inferior teams and losing to the only great teams they've played. "Less than the sum of their parts" is the most accurate description of the Nittany Lions, who have been very disappointing this year.

21) North Carolina

The Tar Heels are back! Sort of. UNC has put together a nice year with some solid wins, including last week's upset of Miami (FL). Could it be that Butch Davis' new team is the real up-and-comer in the ACC, rather than his old team (the 'Canes)? People have been saying for a few years that Carolina was primed to break out. It appears that time may have arrived.

22) Utah

Utah got smacked around by TCU, but so have a lot of teams. The Utes have had a solid if unremarkable year and have probably gained enough national respect to get an invite to a decent. To really call the season a success they need to beat BYU, but Utah is now at the level of a BCS-conference team.

23) Arizona

I sure didn't see that loss to Cal coming. The Bears got all the breaks and managed a touchdown win, but the Wildcats could conceivably turn their frustration over the loss into fuel for the Oregon game this week. Before the Cal game I would have picked the Ducks in a close game, now I'm not so sure. Was the loss the Bears indicative of 'Zona's true nature, or was it simply a bump in the road?

24) Miami (FL)

Despite the disappointing losses to Clemson and North Carolina, Miami has still had a good year given their rough schedule. I'm sure Hurricanes fans would have been very happy with the idea of a 7-3 record at this point in the season. Miami has also found their leaders for the future. The pains of 2009 could translate into a huge 2010.

25) Houston

I thought the Cougars were on the verge of a loss, though I hoped they might get their act together in time to save their one-loss season. You could see the UCF loss coming: the abysmal defensive play the last few weeks, the lucky breaks to pull out close wins. The true tragedy is the death of Case Keenum's Heisman campaign, just when he was starting to get some national recognition.

Random Thoughts and Observations

Interestingly enough, even though Georgia Tech has a run-crazy offense, the Yellow Jackets lead the nation in yards per pass attempt. Detractors of the flexbone claim that once defenses stop the run, the offense can't move the ball. However, this data shows how Georgia Tech's powerful ground game forces defenses to load the box, opening things up for the passing game. The Ramblin' Wreck don't want or need a balanced offense, they just need enough of a threat to pass to keep defenders from crashing down on the run. When they get that, as they have this season, the offense is unstoppable.

More fun in the polls! Miami (FL) and North Carolina now have identical 7-3 records. The Tar Heels just beat the 'Canes. Can you guess which team is ranked higher? At least the BCS rankings make a little sense, as they have Stanford, USC and Oregon State ranked seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth, respectively. The teams are all 7-3 and went 1-1 against each other, so the rankings are reasonable. Of course, the BCS rankings also have a bizarre love affair with Cal - the Bears have been ranked every over week despite having one decent win (Arizona) all season.

Just in case you needed more evidence that picking Tim Tebow as a Heisman finalist is absurd, look at his touchdown numbers. I measured Tebow to Oregon's Jeremiah Masoli before and the comparison is still valid. Tebow has passed and rushed for 22 touchdowns in ten games, Masoli has passed and rushed for 20 in nine games. The numbers are nearly identical. As an Oregon fan, I like Masoli a lot, but I'm not going to say that he's a Heisman candidate. If Masoli isn't a finalist, then Tebow shouldn't be either. It's not just a matter of him not being worthy, it's the fact that he would be taking away a spot from another player.

Heisman-worthy (right now)

Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama

He hasn't done enough to move down and hasn't done enough to move up. Ingram has been in no-man's land the last few weeks, but he has the advantage of playing Florida in the SEC title game before the final votes are tallied. A big performance would virtually guarantee him the Heisman.

Case Keenum, QB, Houston

He's still been the best quarterback this year, but a two-loss Conference-USA team isn't going to get their Heisman candidate any love. Keenum's outstanding performances and ridiculous stats aren't going to be enough to persuade voters that he deserves to go to New York ahead of other higher-profile guys, which is a shame.

Colt McCoy, QB, Texas

I do like McCoy, but the lack of quality competition is starting to hurt his cause. Blowing out Baylor and UCF is good for stats but doesn't impress anyone. In light of what my number one guy has done recently, I don't like just handing McCoy the top spot.

C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Spiller's been electrifying over the last month and has led Clemson to the cusp of an ACC championship berth. He followed up his amazing performances against Miami (FL) and FSU with stellar work against North Carolina State this week, a game in which he ran, caught, and threw for a touchdown. He's the best player in the nation right now.