National Overview
Upsets galore this weekend, from the Pac-10 to the Big 12 to the Big 10. Several highly-ranked teams just avoided losing as well. It was a crazy day, the kind that can only happen in college football.
The big win of the week was obviously Alabama over LSU, as it wrapped up the SEC West for the Crimson Tide for the second straight year. The Florida-Alabama matchup is now set, and only a monumental upset before then will keep one of them out of the BCS title game. In related news, Texas saw rival Oklahoma fall to Nebraska, virtually ensuring that the Longhorns will waltz to the Big 12 title and probably a BCS championship berth. At this point, it's almost a given that the national champ will be the winner of Florida/'Bama-Texas.
Iowa and Oregon battled for the winner of biggest flop, with the Hawkeyes coming up with the narrow victory because Stanford was at least respectable (and at home). Both the Ducks and Hawkeyes chose the wrong week to not take their opponent seriously and both paid for it. However, they can still win their respective conferences if they pick themselves up off the canvas and finish strong. Their fates are in their own hands.
In the Big East, Cincinnati faced a similar situation against Connecticut but managed to escape. Kansas State defeated rival Kansas to keep their (unlikely) Big 12 championship hopes alive, and Houston won an absolutely crazy game to take control of the Conference USA West division.
The conferences races have thus both cleared in some leagues and become more muddled in others. Let's recap:
Georgia Tech moved to 6-1 in the ACC with their overtime win over Wake Forest and can clinch the Coastal division with a win versus Duke. Clemson beat Florida State and now leads the Atlantic.
Alabama and Florida will meet in the SEC championship.
Texas will win the Big 12 South and probably face Kansas State, though there's still a chance it could be Nebraska if the Huskers beat the Wildcats.
Cincinnati and Pittsburgh will play for the Big East title on December 5th.
The winner of Iowa-Ohio State this week will be the Big 10 champ unless that team loses their final game, which is unlikely.
The Pac-10 is a complete crapshoot. Oregon and Arizona control their own destinies, but a second loss by the Ducks could move Stanford into first place, while USC is still hoping Oregon loses out to extend their BCS bowl streak. Oregon State is also still in the mix with two losses and could complete their longshot bid by winning out if Arizona goes down to the Ducks and the Trojans.
Houston appears to be the best team in Conference USA and Boise State, despite their near-disaster against Louisiana Tech, is the dominant team in the WAC. Central Michigan and Temple control their respective fates in the MAC, Troy leads the Sun Belt by a wide margin and the Mountain West champ will be the winner of the upcoming Utah-TCU tilt.
On the polls
I'm absolutely baffled by what we're seeing in the polls right now. How are some teams still ranked ahead of opponents that beat them? It's insane. I completely agree with ESPN's Jesse Palmer, who used the fact that USC is ranked ahead of Oregon as an example. "Did the voters not see the game two weeks ago?" he said. "This ranking is an absolute joke." Too true, Jesse. But that's not nearly the end of the ridiculousness of the current top 25. I think I can justify my rankings. Can the real voters?
1) Texas
Not really a debate right now. The Longhorns schedule has taken a turn for the flimsy, but they are appropriately blowing out everyone they are playing. They're playing their best ball of the season and are worthy of the top spot.
2) Alabama
I'm not very convinced with LSU's legitimacy, which is why the Tide don't jump the Horns. Still, if LSU is not elite, they're still decent and the win is a quality one. The victory over the Tigers should help boost Alabama's strength of schedule, which is starting to fall because of Virginia Tech's recent struggles.
3) Florida
The Gators won in underwhelming fashion again last weekend, this time versus Vanderbilt. I'm not sure if the voters are just too stubborn to move Florida down or if they've actually not watched the team play this season. Either way, it is laughable that they're still number one in the polls. They have beaten one top 25 team and won't play another until the SEC title game. How is that resume any more deserving than say, Boise State's?
4) TCU
TCU won big and got some love from the BCS this week, shooting up to number four. I don't know if the Horned Frogs are as good as the "Big Three" (Texas, Alabama, Florida), but I can safely say they're on par with the five or so teams below them, including the BCS-conference ones. The defense is nasty and very disciplined, which always puts the team in a great position.
5) Cincinnati
I'm amazed that Cincy is still winning with Tony Pike on the sideline. Guess he wasn't as valuable as we thought, huh? The key for the Bearcats is the offensive system and outstanding coaching. I want to root for them, but they play in the Big East so it's tough to make the case that they deserve national championship consideration. That two-point win over Connecticut was a little dicey too.
6) Georgia Tech
The defense has been extra-leaky the past couple of weeks, which is really saying something. I still love the offense, but at some point someone is going to slow down the Ramblin' Wreck just a little and the defense is going to lose this team a game. It might take until the bowl season, though, like when LSU dominated the Yellow Jackets after several weeks of preparation last year.
7) Boise State
Oregon's loss was killer. Boise State is now praying that Utah beats TCU this week, because there's no way the Broncos will get into a BCS game if the Horned Frogs go undefeated. It's a tough situation, but the hard truth is that Boise State is barely beating mediocre and bad teams. Five of the teams on their schedule are ranked outside the top 100 by the Sagarin ratings, and that's not even including UC Davis.
8) Pittsburgh
Pitt has quietly crept up to a great spot in the polls. If only the Panthers hadn't collapsed against North Carolina State! This is without a doubt one of the top two Big East teams and is actually playing a little better than Cincinnati right now. All the Panthers have to do is get past West Virginia and then we'll be treated to one of the games of the year against the Bearcats.
9) Oregon
That defensive performance against Stanford was atrocious. The offense keeps humming along, but the Cardinal might have given teams a blueprint on how to beat the Ducks. It's not easy, but you can do it. How Oregon responds to the loss will say a lot about the character of the team, and with games against Arizona and Oregon State coming up, there's not a lot of time to cry over what might have been. I do think that Stanford is a quality opponent, though.
10) LSU
Since when did losing close to good teams deserve a high ranking? LSU played 'Bama and Florida close, it's true, but the best team they've beaten is 5-4 Georgia. It's crazy that the Tigers did not drop in the BCS after losing to the Tide. In all likelihood this team is going to go 10-2, but they still won't have anything close to quality win. This team is definitely living off its reputation. However, I still ranked them ahead of...
11) USC
... because something is really wrong with the Trojans right now. A five-point win over Arizona State? Yikes. That was almost more eye-opening than the Oregon beatdown, because everyone assumed a Pete Carroll team would bounce back big after a humiliating loss. The defense is not very impressive and now the offense has slowed considerably. This is a really bad time for the Trojans to be playing Stanford. There's certainly a chance they could rebound and get their season back on track, but I'm not the one to tell you how they're going to do it.
12) Ohio State
Well, well, well. Ohio State finally showed up on the big stage again. It's been awhile, I must say. Now, I've said in the past that I don't think Penn State is very good - which last week's game seemed to prove - but they're still a talented team that was in contention for the Big Ten title. The Buckeyes are now in a position to sweep aside the sting of the Purdue loss and win the conference if they can knock off Iowa this week.
13) Houston
That's now two games in a row Case Keenum and the offense have had to save the defense's collective behinds. I can't justify moving the Cougars up because they just beat Southern Miss by seven and Tulsa by one. When teams start having games like this, it usually indicates a fall is coming. I hope that isn't the case because Houston is a very entertaining team, but I'd be lying if I said I thought they could beat anyone above them.
14) Arizona
I would've moved the Wildcats up farther, but they got Washington State last week, which is isn't exactly a difficult matchup. I don't think they'll have any problem with Cal this week, but the Oregon game now takes on a huge significance with the Ducks' loss to Stanford, as a win would enable 'Zona to lose to USC in their finale and still win the Pac-10 championship. First they have to focus on the task at hand, though.
15) Utah
Just when I thought Utah was on the verge of getting upset, they delivered an appropriately dominant performance against an inferior team in New Mexico. A warning to the Utes, though: TCU is going to be a lot harder. The battle for Mountain West supremacy takes place this week and I'm very excited. With a win, Utah can assert that they still rule the league; with a loss, TCU becomes the conference's standard-bearer.
16) Miami (FL)
The 'Canes still have Duke to play, but it would take a collapse from Georgia Tech to see Miami in the ACC title game. Too bad, because this team has come a long way this season and Jacory Harris is one of the nation's best quarterbacks. Inconsistent play has probably doomed them to also-ran status for the year, though.
17) Oregon State
I predicted that OSU would rise up the rankings as the season wore on and the Beavers responded to my trust. As usual, they are improving rapidly in the last half of the year. The schedule is pretty cushy from here on out too, with Oregon the only team left Oregon State won't completely crush. An 8-3 record going into the Civil War after a 2-2 start, with the only loss a close one to USC, is quite impressive (and vintage Mike Riley).
18) Oklahoma State
The other OSU did well to blow out Iowa State on Saturday, but I'm still getting a very LSU/Penn State vibe from the Cowboys. They've lost to the two best teams they've played and their best win is over Georgia. Sound familiar? I have them in my rankings because they'll probably finish with nine or ten wins, but the question remains whether any of them are quality.
19) Wisconsin
I'm a little surprised that the Badgers couldn't put away Indiana, but I still have to give them some credit. This is not a glamour team. The quarterback play stinks (surprise!) and it's possible that the defense might be good only because of the weak Big Ten offenses it's faced. Like Oklahoma State, though, Wisconsin is going to finish with a respectable record. And really, who else is there to put ahead of them?
20) Iowa
Thank goodness that ridiculous charade is over. Iowa finally got what was coming to them in the form of a 17-10 home loss to Northwestern. They're still ranked because they won nine games, but let's be real: there's nothing special about this team. To borrow a description from a local sports personality, they "smoke-and-mirrored" their way to that record. Is anyone seriously going to pick them to beat Ohio State?
21) Virginia Tech
Not a whole lot to report here. The Hokies sit at 6-3, but with no realistic chance to win their division, it's hard to say how the team will react. Tech has pretty much ruled the AC since joining it a few years back, so this is an odd position for them. If the offense is on (big if), I'm confident they could beat almost anyone, but the lack of their usual dominant defense has been off-putting this season.
22) BYU
What, did everyone have a bye last week? As I said before, BYU can still finish with a solid record by winning out, but you don't get a lot of credit for not playing. The way Oklahoma has been playing might end up being a knock on the Cougars, though. That win was what they were depending on for national respect. Now it doesn't look to impressive.
23) Clemson
A solid win over Florida State and an early-season victory over Boston College, and now the Tigers lead the Atlantic division. I'm getting more and more excited about this time each time I see them. C.J. Spiller is a fantastic back and the team has reeled off a few wins in a row. Clemson now only has to beat North Carolina State and Virginia to get to the ACC title game.
24) Stanford
It's about time Stanford got some love. True, they had to play a perfect game to beat Oregon, but beat them they did. That was the hottest team in the country the Cardinal just hung 51 points on. Now it's on to USC - can this team repeat last week's performance? Don't hold your breath. Andrew Luck is an excellent young quarterback and the offense can usually cover up for the defense's shortcomings.
25) Penn State
I was tricked last week into moving the Nittany Lions up in my rankings. For shame. I should have gone with my gut feeling, which was that PSU was living off it's preseason hype and nothing else. Ohio State just beat these guys, plain and simple. While the Buckeyes have been improving, there's still no excuse to lose to a team that lost to Purdue.
Random Thoughts and Observations
People have started to notice in the past few seasons that SEC teams are padding their schedules with one or more lower-division schools in order to pick up easy wins. This has the benefit of making every one in the league's out-of-conference schedule look great, which leads voters to rank more of the teams and creates the perception that the SEC is a powerhouse conference. If all the teams are 4-0 or 3-1 heading into conference play, they must be pretty good, right?
Of course, anyone who watches college football can tell you that records do not reflect the quality of a team. But the ruse has worked very well for the SEC in the last three seasons, in which the SEC champion has been considered a lock for the BCS title game regardless of how many losses they have. A quick glance at the league this year would show you that there are two elite teams (Florida and Alabama), one above-average team (LSU), three average teams (Tennessee, Georgia and Ole Miss), and six below-average teams (Vandy, Kentucky, Arkansas, Auburn, Mississippi State and South Carolina). So what makes the SEC such a dominant conference in the voters' eyes? It has to be overblown preseason expectations and hype about "the toughest conference in America."
But back to the matter of FCS opponents. This season, eleven of the twelve SEC teams play them, with the sole exception of LSU. However, Ole Miss made up for this by scheduling two. That is embarrassing. It means the conference gets twelve free wins this year and can use its teams' padded records to trick voters into voting them higher, resulting in better bowl games and more money for the SEC. It's sad that this tactic has worked so well.
I talk about the SEC a lot, so I feel I should explain my intended purpose. When I rant against the myth of the "powerful" SEC, it's not because I hate the conference. It's because I firmly believe that parity has hit major-college football to the extent that no team can objectively considered number one. It's why I believe in a playoff; at least the best teams would be gathered together to determine a champion on the field.
When the NCAA cut the number of football scholarships to 85, the traditional powerhouse schools could no longer horde the top players and beat down the their usual lackeys. The best prep players began to spread around the country to several other schools. The increase over time of talented players has also given more schools stronger teams. The result of all of this is a overall leveling of the field. It's why Utah and Boise State can beat Alabama or Oklahoma. It's why the myth of "powerhouse" teams is no longer remotely plausible. It's why there's not really much of a difference between Florida and Oklahoma, Oregon and Georgia Tech, Boise State and TCU. Talent is too spread out nowadays.
In other rants...
Every time I think the top 25 rankings are finally making sense, the pollsters throw a ridiculous wrench into the process. They ranked Oklahoma State over Houston for much of the season despite the fact that both teams had the same record and Houston beat OSU! Cal was ranked last weekend while Oregon State was unranked, even though Cal had been hammered by the best teams it played while the Beavers had only lost close games. Oregon State corrected this mistake by whipping the Bears. Then there's the bizarre case of USC jumping over Oregon even though - say it with me - the teams have the same record and the Ducks won head-to-head.
The Sports Illustrated cover curse is alive and strong! I have long believed that SI is the worst predictor of sports outcomes on the planet and they continue to consistently let me down. There are myriad examples of this, but I'll just list the ones off the top of my head:
In 2001, SI had Oregon State football on the cover and labeled OSU the number one team in the nation. The Beavers went lost by 20 in their first game and went 5-6.
In 2003, following Oregon's victory over then-third ranked Michigan, SI had the Ducks on the cover with the headline "Rich, cool and 4-0." Oregon lost their next game 55-16.
This summer SI chose four teams - Oregon, Penn State, Oklahoma State and Ole Miss - for regional covers as "Teams that could shake up the BCS." Oregon lost their opener, Oklahoma State their second game, Ole Miss their third and Penn State their fourth. Not one of the teams made it out of September without a loss.
And of course, there was last week's issue featuring Iowa, with the headline "Still Perfect." The Hawkeyes promptly lost their next game.
Can we make a rule that SI is no longer allowed to write about a sport its writers so clearly know nothing about? The magazine's history of complete incompetence is this subject is just funny at this point.
Heisman-worthy (right now)
For the first time, my Heisman ballot remains the same two weeks in a row. I couldn't think of a reason to move anyone up or down, so everyone gets to stay put.
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama
Ingram's production has slowed and he hasn't rushed for a touchdown in three weeks, but he's still on pace for a 1,500 yard season. I think Alabama's lack of a legitimate passing game is hurting him, so I'll stick with him for now. He's got some weak defenses coming up and should be able to put up some nice numbers.
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson
Spiller is just on fire right now. He set a school record for all-purpose yards with 310 in the Tigers upset of Miami (FL), then topped it last week with 312 in the win over Florida State. He's turning it on at the right time and the Heisman voters ought to take notice. It's performances like that in big-game situations that lead to invites to New York.
Colt McCoy, QB, Texas
Under normal circumstances Spiller would have passed McCoy this week, but McCoy's stat line was even more impressive. The senior passed for 470 yards in the Longhorns win over UCF. It took a while, but McCoy has returned to top-shelf form and is now a lock to be a Heisman finalist. The only thing he's missing is the traditional "Heisman moment" that winners have to have.
Case Keenum, QB, Houston
Heisman moment, you say? How about leading the team back from an eight-point deficit with three minutes left, scoring a touchdown and then completing back-to-back passes to put the Cougars in range for the game-winning field goal as time expires? Oh, and Keenum threw for 522 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. Enough said.
Saturday, November 7, 2009
Upset special
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Halloween Thrills and Spills
National Overview
Stunning. Shocking. Mind-boggling. Those were just a few of the words used to describe the Fall of Troy Saturday night, and not one of them was hyperbolic. Oregon whipped USC left, right, forward and backward on Halloween, handing the mighty Trojans their worst loss in over a decade, possibly their worst loss of all time. Never under Pete Carroll had USC looked so overwhelmed. The outcome was nigh-inexplicable - unless you accept that Oregon was simply the (much) better team.
I witnessed the rise of the Trojan dynasty at the turn of the century. Could it truly be that we have just seen its fall? It's too early to say, but the lingering stigma this game will have could cost USC dearly in the coming years. The team built their reputation on big-game performances and this was their worst one in a long time.
Fortunately or unfortunately, Oregon over USC was the only big upset of the weekend outside of North Carolina over Virginia Tech, unless you count Tennessee's win against South Carolina (and I don't). Florida won comfortably against Georgia, Texas blasted Oklahoma State (which was a little surprising) and all the mid-major BCS hopefuls blew out their respective opponents. I would include Iowa in this elite group, but the Hawkeyes are clearly not an elite team.
People thought the conference races would generally become clearer after this weekend, but outside of the ACC and Big 12 there is still plenty of uncertainty. Georgia Tech resumes conference play this weekend and Texas has all but assured themselves the division title, but the Pac-10, SEC, Big 10 and Big East are muddled.
One thing we know for sure: Florida will play in the SEC championship game. That speaks a lot more to the weakness of the SEC East than the Gator's dominance, but that's a subject for later. Alabama's monster game versus LSU this weekend should decide the SEC West, so there will be a lot more definitive information about that conference in a week's time.
Oregon took control of the Pac-10 with their USC win, but the Ducks still have a long way to go before they can exhale. They've played just five league games and face a tough matchup with Stanford this week. Arizona is still lurking in the wings with a single conference loss - win out, and the Wildcats go to Pasadena. And as much as Oregon fans won't want to hear it, USC could still pick up the pieces and sneak out another Pac-10 title. They looked left for dead when the Ducks beat them in 2007 and got it done then when Oregon collapsed. This race is not over.
Cincinnati seems to have control of the Big East, but the Bearcats have played the conference's two worst teams - Syracuse and Louisville - the past two weeks. They have a couple of decent squads ahead in Connecticut and West Virginia and are starting to look forward to that big game against Pittsburgh in early December. With the West Virginia loss to South Florida, the Panthers are now the only team with a shot to topple Cincinnati, barring a major upset.
The Big 10 is in shambles right now, and not just because Iowa only beat Indiana thanks to blown calls and couple of miracle plays. Wisconsin shut out the Purdue team that previously beat Ohio State, 37-0, Minnesota beat once-formidable Michigan State and lowly Illinois knocked out Michigan. Penn State was even tied with Northwestern in the fourth quarter before pulling away. This might be the worst BCS conference.
Of course, no team was more overjoyed than Boise State to see Oregon smash USC. The Broncos blew out San Jose State, but no team they play the rest of the season can help their strength of schedule like Oregon can. BYU jumped back into the polls despite being idle and Utah survived a close call versus Wyoming, but TCU was the winner in the polls this week with their 41-0 win over UNLV. The Horned Frogs increased their lead on BSU and if they win out will assuredly be awarded the automatic BCS bid.
On the polls
It's becoming more and more evident that almost no voters watch more than one or two games and then call it a week. If the polls were power rankings indicating current performance, as they purport to be, we wouldn't see several teams ranked where they are now. Once again this week I had trouble finding 25 teams that deserved to be ranked. It seems as if no one can win on a consistent basis.
1) Texas
The Longhorns followed up the Mizzou beatdown with another one of Oklahoma State. I think OSU is a solid team and Texas just destroyed them. The Big 12 may be down, but Texas has been steadily improving over the past several weeks.
2) Oregon
No question. I'll talk more about the "Oregon vs. Boise State" debate later, but for now just be content with the numbers 391 and 613, the Ducks' rushing and total yards against one of the most dominant defenses (at least statistically) in the country. USC has been the gold standard of college football the past decade and they just got humiliated by Oregon's power and speed.
3) Florida
It was Georgia and Georgia stinks, but still, that's a little more like it. The Gators finally looked a bit like themselves this weekend. While the SEC East is obviously very mediocre, Florida did play much better on Saturday, for which I have to give them credit. I still wonder about the offense, though.
4) Alabama
They didn't play so they moved down, but I really couldn't see the Tide losing to Cincy, despite their recent offensive woes. They have to figure out the passing game fast though, because LSU is good enough defensively to take advantage of a one-dimensional offense. Their defense can't save them forever.
5) Cincinnati
I'm keeping this team here for now, but I question their quarterback situation. The Bearcats got through two patsies without much of an issue, but that could change once they start to play some real live teams. I've gone back and forth with Cincy and TCU, but I couldn't justify moving the Horned Frogs up.
6) TCU
TCU's strength of schedule is starting to have an effect. The UNLV team they shut out is more talented than their 3-6 record, and certainly better than the San Jose State team Boise State whaled on. TCU has already passed BSU in the polls. Once they beat Utah (and I'm pretty sure they will), the debate will be all over.
7) Boise State
The Broncos, unfair as it is, aren't going to catch many breaks the rest of the way. To realistically play their way into a BCS game, they're going to have to win by 30+ from here on out. Their win over Oregon is the only thing keeping them afloat right now; without it, they'd probably be outside the top 15.
8) LSU
I continue to be skeptical of LSU and their shutout of Tulane changes nothing. They get a chance to impress me this week when they square off against Alabama. Both teams have strong defenses and ugly offenses. Please don't be another 7-3 SEC slugfest. The winner of this game will probably go to the SEC championship to face Florida.
9) Georgia Tech
Tech doesn't really deserve to move up after struggling against Vandy. Vandy? This team's lack of defense is really becoming evident. However, they're still rolling along on offense and can wrap up a berth in the ACC championship with a win this week. It's difficult to beat the Yellow Jackets when you only have a week to prepare for the mighty flexbone.
10) USC
USC shouldn't despair because of one really bad game. True, this was their worst loss in a long, long time. But isn't it possible Oregon is just that good? If you really think the Trojans should be ranked lower, answer me this: would they lose to any of the next five teams in my rankings? I don't think so. In fact, I think they would blow out all of them except Oklahoma.
11) Iowa
Oh. My. Goodness. Outside of Texas Tech's faceplant against Oklahoma last season, Iowa's win over Indiana was the worst performance from a top 10 team I've ever seen. For three quarters, the Hawkeyes couldn't run, couldn't pass and turned the ball over like a grade-school team. They needed incredibly poor officiating to overturn two clear Indiana touchdowns (more on this later) and benefitted from perhaps the luckiest play this decade (I couldn't find a video of it, sorry). This is not a great team and once they play a legitimate opponent they are going to get worked.
12) Penn State
The Nittany Lions keep creeping up my rankings, and even I'm not sure how they're doing it. Their best win - Michigan - doesn't look remotely impressive now. Maybe I'm just buying in to all the preseason hype. From what I've seen, PSU doesn't seem to be improving by leaps and bounds. However, I do recognize that they have a lot of talent and as the reigning Big 10 champs I'll give them a little leeway.
13) Houston
The Cougars made it way too close against Southern Miss this weekend, but squeaked out an are-you-kidding-me 50-43 win. Case Keenum had a ridiculous stat line, but what's with the defense? This team is a lot like Georgia Tech, except they throw every down instead of running.
14) Pittsburgh
The Panthers had a bye this week and get another next week versus Syracuse. Then the heavy lifting starts. I really like this team and fully expect them to continue their streak. The season-ending stretch of Notre Dame, West Virginia and Connecticut is exactly a murderer's row, but it’s definitely not a cakewalk either.
15) Oklahoma
OU nearly slipped up in a big way against K-State but righted the ship in time to prevent a disastrous upset. The winner of the annual rivalry game against Oklahoma State will probably finish second in the conference. After OSU's performance versus Texas, no one will take the Cowboys in that game. The Sooners look like the second-best team in the Big 12.
16) Ohio State
Why were you guys playing New Mexico State in the last week of October, exactly? Not really a great way to regain national respect. Ohio State gets a pass for now because their season comes down to the next three games - Penn State, Iowa and Michigan. Beat Iowa and all is forgiven, but if not there could be turmoil in Columbus.
17) Arizona
'Zona got the bye week bump, but I believe they're for real. They'd better buckle up, though. After a guaranteed win versus Washington State this week, they face Cal, Oregon, rival ASU and USC. I can see anything from a 5-0 to a 1-4 finish. The first step is dismissing WSU, which they should have no problem with.
18) Utah
Utah made things unnecessarily interesting the last couple games but managed to come out unscathed. It looks like this team is saving everything for that clash of the titans with TCU, a team they've owned recently. I sure hope they've been looking ahead, because if their recent performance is how good the Utes really are, they're going to get plastered by the Horned Frogs.
19) Oregon State
The pass defense has really become an issue, as seen against UCLA. However, I still have the utmost faith that Mike Riley can rally his team to another strong finish. We've seen it too often for it to not happen again, right? The Cal game this week, in Berkeley, will show everyone just where the Beavers stand.
20) Oklahoma State
That showing against Texas was pathetic. I've maintained ever since I saw him in the Holiday Bowl that Cowboys QB Zac Robinson is one of the most overrated players in the country, but even I didn't expect four picks. The sad thing is, the Big 12 is so bad that Okie State is probably still the third best team. I've ranked them because their offense always gives them potential to win in a shootout.
21) Wisconsin
The Badgers have been the epitome of Big 10 football all year - plodding, unimaginative and uninteresting. Unlike most teams in their league, however, Wisconsin has a bit of a nasty streak. They came off of their bye week and absolutely crushed Purdue, who, if you recall, beat Ohio State. I'm ready to put them back in the top 25, if only because there are so few worthy teams.
22) Virginia Tech
Every time I think I have the Hokies figured out, they go out and play like they did against North Carolina. This team is incredibly inconsistent. They can play with anyone on a good day, but on the other days it's best to just close your eyes and wait for the carnage to be over. I'm leaving them ranked, but it's on a trial basis.
23) Notre Dame
Notre Dame still hasn't beaten anyone (Wazzu? Trying to play all the worst teams in the Pac-10, are we?). But the truth, however ugly, is that the Irish will go 10-2 if they upset Pitt this month. With that record, I think they will receive a BCS bowl bid. Do they deserve it? No. But when was the last time a Notre Dame team deserved its hype?
24) BYU
After TCU the rest of the schedule should feel like a cool breeze for the Cougars. There's still the matter of the rivalry game with Utah, but if the Utes play like they have been recently it'll be over by halftime. A 10-2 record with the ambitious schedule BYU played would be quite respectable. Remember, this team did beat Oklahoma.
25) California
An extremely tentative ranking, pending the Oregon State game this week. The Bears beat a pair of weak teams to get back to respectability, but it would exorcise a lot of demons if this team could beat OSU. In 2007 the Beavers beat second-ranked Cal when the Bears had national title aspirations. The program hasn't been the same since. I think OSU is definitely the better team, but I'll give Cal the benefit of the doubt for a week. Show me something, Bears.
Random Thoughts and Observations
Big 12: 3 teams
Big 10: 4 teams
Pac-10: 4 teams
ACC: 3 teams
Big East: 2 teams
Mountain West: 3 teams
WAC: 1 team
Conference USA: 1 team
Independent: 1 team
Heisman-worthy (right now)
Mark Ingram, RB, Alabama